2020 Outlook Transportation Beginning of restructuring: Supply is the key variable Jay JH Ryu +822-3774-1738
[email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] 3 I. Airlines 4 II. Mobility 17 III. Logistics 32 IV. Shipping 37 [Conclusion] 45 [Top picks] 46 [Summary] Momentum to diverge based on supply management OP vs. P/B: Amid market down cycle, earnings momentum to diverge based on each company’s supply management (Wbn) (x) OP (L) P/B (R) 1,500 2.5 Oil price decline; Air cargo Minimum Global Global High oil prices; greater Oil rebound; wage hike; Slowdown in Inventory housing financial shipping market logistics price LCC growth; economic Chinese stimulus restocking bubble crisis restructuring momentum rebound M&As slowdown 1,000 2.0 500 1.5 0 1.0 -500 0.5 -1,000 0.0 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2020 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Airlines: Weak demand to prompt restructuring Economic slowdown and • Outbound demand on Japan routes has declined, hurt by a slowing economy and the Korea-Japan diplomatic row. bottoming out of Japan • Japan routes appear to be bottoming out; declines in load factor should stabilize in early 2020, supported by supply cuts. route demand Sharp decline in outbound demand on Japan routes Passenger traffic growth on Japan routes ('000 persons) (%) (%, %p) 3,500 Korean outbound travelers (L) YoY (R) 35 20 YoY passenger growth L/F indicator 30 3,000 10 25 0 2,500 20 Week of -10 Chuseok 2,000 15 -20 1,500 10 5 -30 1,000 0 -40 500 -5 -50 0 -10 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bloomberg, KTO, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Air Portal, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| 2020 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I.