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Causal Laws and Causal Analysis

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Causal Laws and Causal Analysis Esc'r.r THE CAUSAL VERSION OF THE MODEL 87 uncommon for philosophers to represent causal laws as having special explanatory force. Thus C. Ducasse, after defining IV J. explanation in terms of subsumption under a 'law of con- nection', and having added that mere'law CAUSAL LAWS AND CAUSAL ANALYSIS a of correlation' will not do, goes on to say that laws of the former sort are either causal or logical.' And many contemporary philosophers of t. The Causal Versionof the Model science, with quantum physics in mind, would agree with o far I have said very little about specifically causal Mr. A. P. Ushenko that causal laws alone have "explanatory explanation.In ChapterII, althoughcausal language was virtue".2 not avoidedaltogether, our concernwas chieflytotestthe No doubt many of those who have phrased the covering law covering law claims with respect to explanations which were claim in terms of specifically causal laws have used the term complete in a special sense, and which would not necessarily, 'causal' carelessly.Some have meant no more than 'empirical or even naturally, be formulated in causal terms. In Chapter laws', by contrast with, say, general principles of logic. Others III, too, no attempt was made to contrast explanations given have probably had in mind a distinction within the class by making reference to causal laws with explanations of other of empirical laws, between mere 'probability hypotheses' or kinds. But some defenders of the model have stated their statistical generalizations and genuinely universal laws-for claims explicitly in terms of covering causal laws, as if sub- causal laws are often held to set forth invariable connexions. sumption under these constituted a special case. It may there- But the notion of a causal law is often taken in a more obvious fore be worth our while, even at the risk of some repetition of sense as simply a law expressible in causal language-a law points made in a different context of discussion, to ask whether which would naturally assume the form causes In 'X -y'. there are any peculiarities about specifically causal explana- assessingthe causal version of the covering law model, it is tions which might, or might appear to, count either for or this latter interpretation which I propose to adopt. against the argument which has been developed so far. To say that one sort of thing caasesanother to happen is The cbusal version of the model, like the broader theory, usually held to mean something more than that phenomena of may be regarded as formulating both a necessary and a the first type are always followed by phenomena of the second. sufficient condition of giving an explanation. A. J. Ayer puts As M. R. Cohen puts it, in the course of warning social the necessary condition claim without qualification when he scientists against philosophers who regard causality as nothing declare_s:"every assertion of a particular causal connection but repeated succession: l'A causal relation assertsmore than involves the assertion of a causal law"'t and Gardiner, in mere past coincidence. It affirms that there is some reason discussing the stock Humian billiard-ball example, observes: or ground why, whenever the antecedent event occurs, the "the force of the word 'Secause' derives from the fact that a consequent must follow."s particular case,hasbeen seen to satisfy the requirements of a What sort of 'reason' or 'ground' is envisaged here ? Why causal law . ."' Straightforward statements of the sufficient are specifically causal connexions especially tight and intel- condition claim are less commonly found. But it is not at all ligible ? According to one currently popular view, a law of I 'F)xplanation, Mechanism and Teleology', Feigl and Sellars, Readingsin I Language, Truth and Logic (znd ed,), London, r948' 55. IthilosophicalAnalysis, p. 54o. P. r 2 Op. cit,, p. 2; sce also p, rr4. For other examples, see quotations from Pro- ''fhe Principles of Causality', The Journal of Philosophy,1953, pp. 85-86. t fessors Kaufmann and Braithwaite, Chap. I, section z. I'hc Meaning of Human History, p. roz. 88 CAUSAL LAWS AND CAUSAL ANALYSIS cH.rv sEcr.r THE CAUSAL VERSION OF THE MODEL 8q causal connexion, by contrast with a mere law of observed of someimplicit theory-indeed, that they need not explain correlation, derives its necessity from a logical connexion be- their effectsat all. tween cause and effect, in the light of some accepted general It is worth noticing, in this connexion,that the providing theory of the subject matter. Thus Ryle holds that causal . ofcausal explanationshas not alwaysbeen regarded as part of statements are themselves covertly theoretical. Causes, he the historian's proper task. Indeed, seriousmisgivings have says, are designated by words which are more heavily'theory- often been expressedby philosophersand methodologistsof loaded' than the words which designatetheir effects; they have history as to whether the word 'cause' ought to appear in as part of their meaning an essential theoretical reference.r historical writing at all. What is, on the face of it, more The reason why 'wound', for instance, is the right kind of curious still, such doubts have been expressednot only by word to use in indicating the cause of a scar, while 'pain', opponents of the covering law model like Oakeshott and although also designatingan antecedentcondition, is not, lies Collingwood, but by many of its convinced supporters as in the fact that it carries the right kind of theoretical load to well. explain scars-i.e. a medical or physiological one. Similarly, Thus, in the bulletin of the American Social Science although a red sky is quite incapable of.causing a fall of rain, a ResearchCouncil alreadyreferred to, can be found a warning cold front may be said to do so becauseof the meteorological from ProfessorHook to the effectthat 'cause'is "an ambiguous load of the term concerned. and difficult term of varied and complex meaning", which Such an account of the explanatory force of specifically should be used by historians"with circumspection".IThe causal laws has the merit of going beyond a mere statement warning so impressedhis historical colleaguesthat they con- that causal connexions must be more than instances of uni- cluded that the term 'cause'as used by historians "must be formly observed sequences. Ryle says both what the 'more' regardedas a convenientfigure of speech,describing motives, is-a theory-and why it is not always obvious to those who influences,forces and other antecedentinterrelations not fully recognize the connexion; and if his analysis held good in all, understood".'Andtwo historians,Professors C. A. Beardand or even the vast maiority of cases,the problem of elucidating A. Vagts, in a minority report, went on to declarethat the the explanatory role of tausal laws could simply be referrei term "should neverbe usedin,written history", being suitable t'small back to my discussion in the previous chapter of the way only for "conversations"and practical affairs". In his theories provide explanations. But it is important for our methodologicalprimer for historians, Gottschalk comments understanding of causal explanation in history to recognize caustically:"this is a roundaboutadmission that the authors that Ryle's analysis does not hold good generally. In the of this proposition are somewhatbaffied by the problem of discussion to follow, I shall deny that the causal explanations causation."gYet he too feelsobliged in the end to admit that which historians commonly give can be said to require or "the problem of historical causationis still essentiallyun- presuppose correspondin$ causal laws-for reasonsarising out solved". of the peculiarities of causal analysis as well as for reasons of The objection of the idealistsis not so much that 'cause'is the kind already advanced in non-causal cases.But I shall too looseand slippery a word for 'scientific' history, as that it argue, too, that causesseldom explain their effects by virtue is, when understood,found to be an irrelevantor inappro- priate category.According to Oakeshott,its use betrays an r In lectures delivered at Oxford Universiry during Trinity Term, 1952. 2 Ryle's theory has been developedfarther by N. R. Hanson in 'Causal Chains', I Bulletin No. 54, p. rro. Op. cit., p, r37. Mind, 1955,pp. 289-3rr. 3 UnderstandingHistory, Chicago, rgsr, p. ?23. 90 CAUSALLAWS AND CAUSALANALYSIS cH.rv sEcr.2 THE DISCOVERY OF CAUSAL LAWS 9r anti-historical way of thinking about the subject-matter-an accompaniedby disease.But what exactly are we to say about attempt to convert history into a kind of science.rFor Oake- this 'riore'? On the face of it, at any rate, such an example shott, causalanalysis is loo scientificrather than not scientific would seemto raisedfficulties for Ryle's accountof the theo- enough.The view of Collingwood is similar, although more retical backgroundto causalstatements' For, if anything'-it complicated.Collingwood analysesthe concept of causation appearsto 6e the effect word which, in this case,carries the into three related notions, only one of which is a proper his- heaui"r theoreticalload. The word 'dirt' is not in any obvious torical category,the others being legitimate and illegitimate *ry'ttt.oty-loaded',yetthemeaningofthecausalstatementis extensionsof the conceptfor scientific purposes.According and it-would probably be regardedas true by to Collingwood, in so far as we mean anything more by a many"1"'r, "r,otgh, people. causethan 'affording someonea motive for doing something' It'mighi, I suppose,be arguedthat the notion of a 'theo- (he callsthis 'SenseI'), the notion has no placein historical retical llad; musi be taken more subtly than this. For what a studies.2 word is intended to convey-especially a 'loaded' one-may Now it is perfectlyclear that, no matter what thesetheorists be dependentin an imporiant way ypol its context of utter- say,historians do commonly attemptto provide causalexpla- hh,r., in the motor-car exampleof the previouschapter' nations of what they study.
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