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Susceptibility to Changes in Coastal Land Dynamics in Bangladesh

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Susceptibility to Changes in Coastal Land Dynamics in Bangladesh Susceptibility to Changes in Coastal Land Dynamics in Bangladesh Asib Ahmed Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds Faculty of Earth and Environment School of Geography November 2018 i The candidate declares that the work is original and solely accomplished by him. The contributions of individual supervisors are clearly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credits have been given to the authors where references have been cited from literature pertinent to the study. The work in chapter 2 of the thesis has appeared in publication as follows: Where is the coast? Monitoring coastal land dynamics in Bangladesh: An integrated management approach using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Ocean and Coastal Management (2018) 151, 10-24. Asib Ahmed, Frances Drake, Rizwan Nawaz, Clare Woulds. Contributions: Asib Ahmed (AA) was responsible for literature review, collection, processing and analysis of Landsat satellite images, collecting data on management and policy issues, preparing figures and writing-up the draft paper. Frances Drake (FD) made significant contribution to identify site-specific factors of land dynamics in the study area and policy and management aspects where Rizwan Nawaz (RN) provided guidelines on the appropriateness of the satellite images. Clare Woulds (CW) made significant efforts on the structure of the paper and recommendations for further works. All authors provided valuable comments on the draft paper and made efforts to prepare the paper as final. The work in chapter 3 of the thesis has appeared in publication as follows: Modelling land susceptibility to erosion in the coastal area of Bangladesh: A geospatial approach. Geomorphology (2018) 320, 82-97. Asib Ahmed, Rizwan Nawaz, Frances Drake, Clare Woulds. Contributions: AA was responsible for selecting the parameters and designing the LSCE model. AA conducted a literature survey for the study. AA was also responsible for collecting and analysing the data for the model and conducted the pre and post processing tasks of the raster surfaces. AA then run the model, conducted the validation works of the model results and prepared the draft paper based on the model outputs. RN provided significant guidelines for selecting the parameters and designing the model frame. FD made valuable efforts for validating the model results where CW was responsible for matching the consistency of the model results and ii supported to prepare the draft paper. All the authors provided their comments for finalising the paper. The work in chapter 4 of the thesis currently submitted for publication as follows: Modelling impacts of future climate on land susceptibility to erosion: A geospatial approach applied for the coastal area of Bangladesh. Natural Hazards. Asib Ahmed, Rizwan Nawaz, Clare Woulds, Frances Drake. Contributions: AA was responsible for gathering data on future climate scenarios, prepared the raster surfaces and run the model scenarios. AA reviewed the available literature for the study. AA was also prepared the draft paper based on the model results. AA made necessary works for the justifications of the model results. RN provided significant guidelines in assessing the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes on land susceptibility to erosion. CW guided throughout the process of selecting appropriate numbers of model scenarios. FD made contributions to the justifications of the model scenarios. All the authors provided valuable comments on the paper. The work in chapter 5 of the thesis has appeared in publication as follows: Beyond the tradition: Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to elicit expert views on coastal susceptibility to erosion in Bangladesh. Catena (2018) 170, 36-50. Asib Ahmed, Clare Woulds, Frances Drake, Rizwan Nawaz. Contributions: AA was responsible for conducting two consecutive workshops and prepared the fuzzy cognitive maps based on the contributions of the selected experts in the workshops. AA accomplished the review of relevant literature necessary for the study and prepared the draft paper. CW made contributions in drafting the structure of the paper. FD provided necessary guidelines for the design of the workshops where RN suggested selecting appropriate experts for the workshops. All the authors made significant contributions in writing the final paper. iii Thesis by Alternative Format (TAF) rationale Having a general consensus on the research questions, objectives and methodology based on in-depth review of relevant literature, chapter 2 of the thesis has been prepared by the end of the first year of studentship. The works in chapter 2, chapter 3 and chapter 5 have appeared in publications by August 2018. The work in chapter 4 has been submitted for consideration for publication. The major parts of the research have already appeared in publications that include significant outcomes of the study. That means, TAF found as the most appropriate option for the thesis. Copied of the published papers are included in the submission. The candidate also attended relevant conferences held in UK, Bangladesh and USA and presented the methods and results of the study. Two papers prepared from the results of the study that appeared in conference proceedings but, only the papers considered for recognised journals are included herewith. Copyright declaration This work has been supplied as copyright materials and that no materials from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgements. The right of Asib Ahmed to be recognised as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © Asib Ahmed, The University of Leeds. iv Acknowledgement First, I am indebted to the almighty for embracing me with his blessings. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisors: Frances Drake, Clare Woulds and Rizwan Nawaz for their constant guidance throughout the PhD journey. I can’t imagine accomplishing this unique research without their supervisions. I also deeply acknowledge excellent supports from my two Research Support Group (RSG) members: Brian Irvine and Oliver Fritsch. Thanks are due for the anonymous reviewers of my published papers and the editors of the associated journals. Their comments and corrections made the papers valid in the scientific community. I also wish to thanks to the University of Leeds for providing me Leeds International Research Scholarships (LIRS) to conduct the study. I am deeply grateful to the experts those who participated in the workshops and shared their valuable knowledge. It was quite impossible to prepare mental models without their time-spending supports. Heartfelt thanks to the respondents those who participated in the survey and focus group discussion for measuring resilience capacity to erosion susceptibility. I am really thankful to my respected parents and my family members for their prayer and support throughout the way. Besides, I am happy to say thanks to all of my friends, students and colleagues at the University of Dhaka and the University of Leeds for their prompt supports for this long expedition. They have given mental support to publish papers and to present the study at different international conferences. Enthusiastic thanks to persons at the school of Geography and the University of Leeds for their excellent and cordial support. Finally, thanks to myself for accomplishing the study that might be a major step in my future career as a coastal researcher. v Abstract Coastal areas of the world are physically dynamic in nature. The present study contributes new knowledge to studies on coastal land dynamics and land susceptibility to erosion. This study developed a raster GIS-based model namely, Land Susceptibility to Coastal Erosion (LSCE) to assess erosion susceptibility of coastal lands under hydro-climatic changes. The devised model was applied to the entire coastal area of Bangladesh. The model required the characterisation of the nature of land dynamics (i.e. erosion and accretion). The analysis showed a net gain of 237 km² of land over the past thirty years but, constant changes in land dynamics were observed in the area. The study then applied the LSCE model to measure the existing levels of land susceptibility of the coastal area to erosion. The validated model outputs were then used as a baseline for generating four possible scenarios of future land susceptibility to erosion in the coastal area. This allowed the model to ascertain the probable impacts of future hydro-climatic changes on land susceptibility to erosion in the area. Additionally, the study assessed seasonal variations of land susceptibility to erosion by using the same model. The model outputs showed that 276.33 km² of existing coastal lands classified as highly and very highly susceptible to erosion, would substantially increase in the future. Using a Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) approach, the study elicited expert views to evaluate the model scenarios and to address uncertainties relevant to erosion susceptibility. This study could allow coastal managers and policymakers to develop effective measures in managing highly erosion susceptible coastal lands in the area. vi Acronyms used in this thesis ANN - Artificial Neural Network ASTER-DEM - Advanced Space-born Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer- Digital Elevation Model BARC - Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council BIWTA - Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority BWDB - Bangladesh Water Development Board CDMP - Comprehensive
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