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3Q 2018 Houston Office Market Report

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3Q 2018 Houston Office Market Report MAR KET AT A GLANCE HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET REPORT THIRD QUARTER 2018 PROPERTY SERVICES | DEVELOPMENT | INVESTMENT MAR KET AT A GLANCE Q3 | 2018 HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Houston’s economy has accelerated over the past year as the energy industry continues to recover following a two-year oil bust that hit bottom in 2016 and the construction industry shows no sign of slowing in post-Hurricane Harvey rebuilding. Houston employers have expanded their payrolls by 110,200 jobs over the past 12 months ending in August 2018, representing a 3.7% increase for the period. The largest annual employment gains have occurred in professional & business services (35,000 jobs), construction (28,900 jobs) and trade, transportation & utilities (17,300 jobs). Meanwhile, the metro area’s unemployment rate has fallen 80 basis points to 4.2% over the prior 12 months to reach its lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since February 2008. The energy sector maintained its strong momentum during the third quarter as sustained global economic growth, OPEC supply cuts, the restoration of Iran sanctions TABLE OF CONTENTS are just some of the factors that have contributed to the turnaround. West Texas Economic Overview ................................................2 Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price has enjoyed its strongest rally in eight years, starting the year in the low $60 range and rising to $75 per barrel to reach its highest level Office Market Assessment .....................................3 since November 2014. The combination of rising prices and record production has translated into solid profits for Houston’s energy companies, which, in turn, is boosting Net Absorption & Occupancy .................................4 manufacturing, professional services and other sectors connected to oil and gas. Even though oil and gas production increased for the eighth consecutive quarter, it has come Rental Rates & Leasing Activity ..............................5 nowhere close to generating a recovering of all the jobs lost following the oil bust since energy production has become much more efficient through advancing technologies Construction ...........................................................6 allowing for a smaller workforce. Submarket Statistics & Methodology .....................7 Updated 10/1/2018 The PMRG Team .....................................................8 EMPLOYMENTEmployment TrendsTRENDS 120 5% 100 80 3% 60 Thousands 40 20 1% 0 -20 -1% -40 -60 FOR INFORMATION: -80 -3% -100 -120 -5% WADE BOWLIN '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 18F19F President Central Division Jobs Added Annual % Change Updated 9/30/2018 713.209.5753 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Analytics, University of Houston's Center for Regional Forecasting [email protected] EMPLOYMENTEmployment GROWTH Growth BYby SECTORSector 12-MONTHS HEALTH JOHN SPAFFORD CURRENT PRIOR ANNUAL (Improving Executive Vice President READING READING CHANGE or Declining) Director of Leasing Mining 80.3 78.4 2.4% Up 713.209.5823 Construction 243.3 214.4 13.5% Up Manufacturing 230.9 221.3 4.3% [email protected] Up Trade, Transportation & Utilities 635.6 618.3 2.8% Up Information 31.3 32.2 -2.8% Down ARIEL GUERRERO Financial Activities 164.0 160.3 2.3% Up Senior Vice President, Research Professional & Business Services 519.4 484.4 7.2% Up 713.209.5704 Education & Health Services 393.4 386.1 1.9% Up Leisure & Hospitality 327.4 323.0 1.4% [email protected] Up Other Services 111.5 109.9 1.5% Up Government 386.0 384.6 0.4% Up Totals 3,123.1 3,012.9 3.7% Up Source:Source: U.S. U.S. Bureau Bureau of of Labor Labor Statistics. Statistics; Employment Employment Data as of August 2018 2018 (P) AllAll Employees, Employees, Inin Thousands PAGE 2 PROPERTY SERVICES | DEVELOPMENT | INVESTMENT MAR KET AT A GLANCE Q3 | 2018 HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT Houston’s office market demonstrated encouraging signs of turning the corner with 110,227 SF of direct net absorption during the third quarter, but still remains at 1.1 million SF of occupancy losses year-to-date. The Class A market witnessed modest quarterly gains totaling 16,635 SF, but has registered positive absorption in four of the previous five quarters totaling just over 600K SF of direct space. The flat quarterly absorption in the Class A sector resulted from large corporate consolidations involving Shell Oil (120K SF), McDermott International (205K SF) and Comerica (100K SF), which returned a combined 425K SF to the market. However, the Class A sector is showing stronger signs of stabilization with trophy and new construction projects leading in the recovery and outperforming the broader market as the flight to quality trend persists. The Class B sector managed to break a streak of four consecutive quarters of occupancy losses with 73,963 SF of direct net absorption, but the year-to-date total remains firmly in negative territory with nearly 1.3 million SF of occupancy losses. The largest tenant EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: movement in the Class B sector involved Harris County Veterans Service taking 119K Houston’s economy will continue to expand as SF in the CBD, while McDermott International vacated 151K SF in Westchase. rebounding energy exploration drives gains in manufacturing and residential re¬construction rises amid growth in income and rebuilding after Hurricane Although Houston’s office market continues to be weighed down by a significant vacant Harvey. The employment outlook remains strong with inventory, there are positive signs that the market has begun its expected recovery. an average of 90,000 new jobs forecasted per year Leasing activity has demonstrated signs of picking up over the past year with the bulk through 2019, according to Moody’s Analytics. of the transactions involving early lease renewals and subleases as tenants are taking advantage of the opportunity to strike a deal early and lock-in today’s rental rates. Large CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST: tenants with leases expiring in 2019 to 2021 are already evaluating opportunities in The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude the market, including proposed new construction projects that could hinder the office oil (WTI) traded for $70.23 a barrel in September market’s recovery. Large deal activity will account for a larger share of the leasing 2018, up 41% compared to the prior year. The U.S. volume going forward but could result in additional blocks of space coming back on the Energy Information Administration has recently raised market as some tenants may right size or consolidate. its forecast on WTI oil price to average $67.03 in 2018 and $67.36 in 2019. FORECAST DIVERSIFIED ECONOMIC DRIVERS: • As vacancy rates remain elevated, landlords are offering generous concession The region has become more diversified but the packages to attract tenants while maintaining rental rates, but the increased energy sector still accounts for almost half of the local economy. The Port of Houston is the 10th competition will put some pressure on rents primarily in lower quality buildings. largest port in the world and ranks first nationally in • Landlords will face additional challenges as many sublease listings will roll over to international waterborne tonnage handled. The Texas direct space as their agreements expire, further impacting the direct occupancy Medical Center is the largest of its kind in the world – rates. On the bright side, landlords that receive direct space are back in the driver with a local economic impact of $10 billion per year. seat and no longer have to compete with tenants willing to sublease their premises at very low recovery rates. • With the “flight to quality” trend remaining prevalent, property owners will continue Updated 10/7/2018to focus upon significant capital improvement programs to enhance their assets to remain competitive with both new office developments as well as existing buildings within their direct competitive set. Office Market Trends OFFICE MARKET TRENDS MARKET TREND INDICATORS 10,000 90% Current Change from Previous 12-month Quarter Quarter Year Forecast 8,000 88% Direct Occupancy 81.1% 6,000 86% Trailing 12 mos. Direct -978,726 Net Absorption 4,000 84% Under Construction 3,506,216 2,000 82% in Thousands of SF Direct Asking Rents $29.33 0 80% -2,000 78% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18F'19F Direct Net Absorption Completions Direct Occupancy PROPERTY SERVICES | DEVELOPMENT | INVESTMENT PAGE 3 MAR KET AT A GLANCE Q3 | 2018 HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET NET ABSORPTION & OCCUPANCY • The CBD posted 68,142 SF of direct absorption, largely due to Harris County Veterans Services taking 119K SF of Class B space at 500 Jefferson. The Class A sector witnessed occupancy losses as Shell Oil gave up 126K SF at One Shell Plaza, but 609 Main continued to capture the bulk to the gains with move-ins by RBC Capital (57K SF) and Simmons & Company (31K SF). • The Galleria office market recorded 51,731 SF of direct net absorption, driven by 80,817 SF of leasing gains within the Class A sector. The Class A market has absorbed 302,824 SF of direct space year-to-date, causing direct occupancy rates to climb 130 basis points to 82.5% since 4Q17. • The Katy Freeway/Energy Corridor witnessed 137,125 SF of direct net absorption. The Class A sector accounted for 147K SF of occupancy gains as small to medium- sized energy-related companies expanded their footprints. • Greenway Plaza posted 77,502 SF of direct net absorption, with the majority of the gains taking place in newly built product, which helped push Class A direct Even though office-using employment growth has occupancy up by 90 basis points to 81.9%. strengthened over the past year, Houston’s office • North Houston/North Belt recorded 127,409 SF of direct net absorption, but has leasing market is expected to take some time to suffered nearly 485K SF of occupancy losses year-to-date.
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