October 2016 through May NIGER Food Security Outlook 2017 Outlook of «Minimal» food insecurity overall except in the Diffa area where «Crisis» persists KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for October 2016 In general, food security has improved with the increasingly wide-spread harvests, the start of the seasonal price decline, and the growing income-earning opportunities with the sale of food and cash crops and livestock. The majority of households are able to meet their food and nonfood needs without straining their livelihoods and there will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity in most areas of the country between October 2016 and May 2017. Cereal and pasture deficits, triggered by various rainfall anomalies (excessive rain, drought, and fierce sandstorms) which disrupted normal plant growth and development, are expected in the transhumant pastoral zone in Tahoua, Zinder, Agadez, and Maradi regions and farming areas of Maradi Source: FEWS NET (Dakoro and Mayahi). The disruption of normal livelihoods This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not reflect chronic food (premature deterioration in the physical condition of livestock, insecurity. Learn more here. early depletion of food stocks, etc.) will produce Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions as of March 2017. Regular, adequate market supplies will persist with the continued devaluation of the Nigerian naira that is promoting a flow of commodities trade into Niger and generally below-average cereal prices, facilitating food access. However, this situation will continue to be detrimental to exports of cash crops and livestock, translating into below-average sales and prices. In spite of the increasingly widespread harvests and the end of the lean season in October, the Diffa region will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity after the end of January, through at least May 2017. Displaced households and poor local households affected by the conflict with Boko Haram, which is triggering population displacements and disrupting livelihoods, will be unable to meet their food needs and will be heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2016 through May 2017 Most likely estimated food security outcomes for NATIONAL OVERVIEW October 2016 through January 2017 Current situation The slightly above-average and steady rainfall through the end of September (Figure 1) enabled crops in most parts of the country to mature normally, completing their growing cycle, and making the forecast for average to above-average levels of nationwide crop production that much more likely. However, climatic anomalies such as the excessive rainfall for late-planted crops are threatening the good crop production prospects in certain farming and agropastoral areas of Dakoro and Mayahi (Maradi). Protracted dry spells followed by violent sandstorms significantly affecting the proper growth of biomass pasture are also threatening the good outlook for Source: FEWS NET pasture production in the transhumant pastoral zone in Tchintabaraden and Abalak (Tahoua), Bermo (Maradi), and Most likely estimated food security outcomes for Tanout (Zinder). Reported flooding in the Ingal pastoral area February through May 2017 (Agadez) have destroyed forage crops and killed animals. In general, food security conditions around the country are improving with the increasingly wide-spread October harvests, the increased pastoral production at the end of September, and the expected scaling-up of market gardening activities as of December, which are helping to diversify household diets and income. In addition, there are average earnings from sources of income such as the sale of milk and farm labor in all parts of the country. This is providing poor households with normal incomes enabling them to meet their basic needs and maintain their staple food access. However, there are appreciable food consumption gaps in the Diffa region where the Boko Haram conflict has eroded local sources of food and income. Source: FEWS NET With regards to pastoral conditions, the good rainfall pattern These maps show relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for has helped promote normal new grass growth with average emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Learn more here. levels of pasture production in many parts of the country. This has allowed animals to physically recover and maintain their Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall (RFE) anomalies for the market value. There are currently normal herd movements, period from April 1st through October 10th compared with adequate water supplies in major watering holes. with the 2006-2015 average However, the climatic anomalies in certain pockets of the Maradi, Zinder, Tahoua, and Agadez pastoral areas are expected to produce below-average pasture levels. At the end of October, the exchange rate for the Nigerian naira and CFA franc was approximately 750 nairas for 1000 CFA francs, which is down 50 percent from the same time last year and 55 percent below the five-year average. This continued devaluation of the naira is creating large price differentials and very good trade incentives for coarse cereal imports from Nigeria into Niger. On the other hand, it is negatively affecting cowpea and livestock exports to Nigeria, which is the largest outlet for markets in Niger. This is reflected in the below-average prices of cowpeas and livestock at a time when farmers and Source: USGS/FEWS NET pastoralists need to sell their products in order to rebuild their cereal stocks. The price of cowpeas, for example, is below the five-year average by as much as 35 percent in Tounfafi and 48 Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2016 through May 2017 percent in Diffa. Likewise, prices for livestock are down from all reference periods. September 2016 prices for rams were down from the same time in 2015 by 65 percent in Mokko, 52 percent in Soubdou, and 48 percent in Bakin Birji with the lower demand for exports to Nigeria. They were also under the five-year average by 53 percent in Mokko, 40 percent in Torodi, and 43 percent in Soubdou. Prices for an average sheep are down from 2015 and the five-year average by similar margins, even with the celebration of the Feast of Tabaski in September of this year driving up prices for small ruminants (Figure 2). Shipments of fresh crops from ongoing harvests are steadily improving the balance between market supply and demand. Aggregate household demand for cereals has stabilized at average levels. In general, cereal prices are stable. However, in line with normal seasonal trends, there were small to moderate price increases of no more than 15 percent between August and September on retail markets in certain urban areas and in areas with structural deficits which had not get gotten any shipments of fresh crops. September 2016 prices were still slightly above the five-year average due to the mixed performance of the growing season, deterring massive sales of trader inventories. However, prices have come down on certain markets such as that of Agadez, which is reporting a 13 percent drop in the price of millet. Turning to the security situation, according to updated figures supplied by the DREC (the Figure 2. Prices for sheep and rams in selected cities compared with 2015 Regional Registry Office and Refugee and the average Agency), as of September 20, 2016, there were a total of 302 ,387 displaced persons in 160000 the Diffa region as a result of the conflict 140000 with Boko Haram. A breakdown of this figure 120000 shows that 61 percent are internally 100000 displaced persons concentrated in the 80000 municipalities of Gueskerou, Diffa, Nguigmi, 60000 Bosso, and Chetimari. In addition, security problems are keeping another 50,000 40000 Malian refugees in the Tillabéri region. 20000 0 The government of Niger is continuing to Mokko Soubdou Bakin Birji Balleyara Ayorou implement an assistance plan calling for «targeted distributions of free food mouton: Sep-16 mouton: Sep-15 mouton: moy 5 ans assistance» to 20,000 households from a bélier: Sep-16 bélier: Sep-15 bélier: moy 5 ans supply of 1,000 metric tons of cereals (millet and sorghum) at the rate of 100 kg per Source: FEWS NET household per month. The WFP is operating a simultaneous food and cash transfer program for different target populations supplying 190,000 recipients with either 32,500 CFAF per month per household or food rations comparable to those being distributed by the government. The nutritional situation in Niger is typically marked by high rates of global acute malnutrition (GAM) ranging from 10 to 15 percent, even during the post-harvest period in October/November/December. According to the findings by the national nutritional assessment based on the SMART methodology in August/September 2016, the nationwide global acute malnutrition rate for children between six and 59 months of age based on weight-for-height measurements is 10.3 percent, compared with a rate of 12.9 percent in the Agadez and Maradi regions, which have the highest levels of GAM. In the Diffa region where the data was broken down by department, the GAM rate ran as high as 17.3 percent in N’Gourti, 14.6 percent in Nguigmi, and 13.1 percent in Maine Soroa. A comparison of 2016 GAM rates with the average (13 percent) as calculated based on SMART survey data for October 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2010 and the figure for 2015 (15.3 percent) shows a significant improvement in the state of child nutrition.