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Demand Forecast of NFC Mobile Users – a Case Study of Serbian Market Stanivuković B, Radojičić V, Marković D, Blagojević M. Demand Forecast of NFC Mobile Users – A Case Study of Serbian Market BOJAN STANIVUKOVIĆ, Ph.D.1 Information and Communication Technology E-mail: [email protected] Original Scientific Paper VALENTINA RADOJIČIĆ, Ph.D.1 Submitted: 13 Aug. 2017 E-mail: [email protected] Accepted: 10 July 2018 DEJAN MARKOVIĆ, Ph.D.1 E-mail: [email protected] MLADENKA BLAGOJEVIĆ, Ph.D.1 (Corresponding author) E-mail: [email protected] 1 University of Belgrade Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering Vojvode Stepe 305, Belgrade 11000, Serbia DEMAND FORECAST OF NFC MOBILE USERS – A CASE STUDY OF SERBIAN MARKET ABSTRACT which will introduce a completely new way of commu- Near Field Communication (NFC) is a very short-range nication, business, trade, marketing, arts, health, so- type of radio communication that is compatible with other cial care, security, and the like. The implementation contactless communication technologies. It provides enor- of NFC chips in all new mobile phone devices makes a mous possibilities, particularly given that it does not require platform for introducing a range of new services based any particular communication infrastructure. NFC technolo- on this technology. gy has found possible application in contactless cards and The development history of NFC technology is asso- mobile phone devices as a communication infrastructure ciated with NFC contactless cards that have provided which provides a platform for the development of NFC-based the first technological platform and user experience of business services. This paper proposes a novel approach to this technology. The question is how do the NFC and forecasting the number of new users of NFC mobile phones based on fuzzy logic and the Norton-Bass diffusion model. its mobile application contribute to the development The proposed approach is demonstrated through the case of market dynamics? On a global scale, as well as in study. small isolated markets, the basic assumptions are that the NFC technology migration from contactless cards KEYWORDS to mobile phones will be gradual and will depend on two very important factors: fuzzy logic; Near Field Communication; mobile users; fore- cast; – The development of the NFC mobile phone market, i.e., the increase in the number of mobile phones 1. INTRODUCTION with NFC chips and interest of end users to have such phones, and 1.1 Motivation – Awareness of users who may be interested in the transition to a new technology, driven by the Mobile payment is a relatively new area of research. benefits it offers them, particularly in terms of Although mobile payment systems provide flexibility multi-functionality and security. and convenience, they still cannot compete with the Reviewing the related literature, the only published traditional payment services [1]. Some authors argue articles concern the understanding of the determi- that mobile payment adoption research is in its infancy nants of customer adoption and intention to recom- [2, 3], even if the number of studies has increased in mend mobile payment technology [5], adoption of NFC the last couple of years [4]. The technology supporting mobile payment system by the end user [1], mobile the mobile payment systems has evolved in the last technology acceptance model – an investigation using few years, following the emergence and expansion of mobile users to explore smartphone credit card [6], a a full new range of mobile and smart devices, some of neural networks approach for predicting the determi- them already using technologies like Near Field Com- nants of the NFC-enabled mobile credit card accep- munication (NFC) [5]. tance [7]. Although there has been a lot of coverage NFC is a very short-range type of radio communi- on consumer acceptance of mobile payments, there cation that enables contactless cards and NFC mobile are few studies providing guidelines to interpret NFC- devices to communicate, exchange data, and share based mobile payment adoption [8]. Having reviewed resources, and it represents the technology of future the existing literature in terms of NFC technology Promet – Traffic & Transportation, Vol. 30, 2018, No. 5, 513-524 513 Stanivuković B, Radojičić V, Marković D, Blagojević M. Demand Forecast of NFC Mobile Users – A Case Study of Serbian Market adoption, we found only articles aimed at researching adoption is given as well. Section 4 provides a de- the willingness of consumers to accept m-payment scription of the forecasting procedure using the Nor- and NFC technology. There are no papers dealing with ton-Bass diffusion model. Section 5 includes the ob- consumers’ willingness and intention to switch from tained results and discussion. The forecasted results one kind of NFC technology to another, i.e., from NFC are evaluated in Section 6, followed by the conclusions contactless cards to NFC mobile phones, and that was at the end of the paper. the motivation for this paper. 2. RESEARCH BACKGROUND 1.2 Research objective and questions The NFC standard was established in 2003 and is The Serbian market is rather shallow, both in the defined in the standard ISO/IEC 18092. It is compati- area of card management business and in the mo- ble with ISO/IEC 14443 and ISO/IEC 15693 and with bile application management business. Even though Sony FeliCa contactless smart cards [10]. In that way, there are pilot projects of NFC technology usage on NFC can use the existing RFID (Radio Frequency Iden- the contactless card platform, the market expansion is tification) infrastructure, eliminating the need for any quite slow. Among numerous small projects, two larg- specific technical conditions or its own infrastructure. er projects are emerging, and they are based on the A key advantage of NFC devices is that they can read contactless card platform: Intesa-MTS-Maestro-Pay- RFID transponders and emulate them. Pass payment cards and BusPlus cards for public Apart from the above, the key NFC advantages for transportation services in Belgrade, Serbia. On the end users are [11]: other hand, it has been established that the number – Versatility: NFC is a protocol for communication be- of mobile phone subscribers is higher than the total tween devices that can be used in the widest spec- number of inhabitants. According to RATEL (Regulato- trum of human activity; ry Agency for Electronic Communications and Postal – Intuitiveness: NFC does not require more than a Services) data, the penetration of mobile phone sub- simple touch at the touch tag to set up interaction scribers in the year 2010 was 132.24%, in the 2011 between devices; it amounted to 142.99%, 126.19% in 2012, 128.09% – Set-up technology: NFC facilitates fast and simple in 2013, and 130.76% in 2014 [9]. This substantial setting up of wireless communication in other wire- technical capital of the market raises the question less technologies, such as RFID, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, regarding the dynamics and range of development of etc.; the NFC mobile phone market in Serbia. Based on the – Open source based on: ISO, ECMA, and ETSI stan- dards. The basic NFC standards are ISO 14443 above assumptions, the research objective is provid- Types A and B + FeliCa, which is the internation- ing a deeper understanding of the factors facilitating al standard for contactless smart cards working the current consumer’s transition from one method of at 13.56 MHz, and the international standard ISO mobile payment to another, both based on NFC tech- 18092 defining the regime for NFC interface and nology, and forecasting the NFC mobile users’ demand communication protocol [12]; on the Serbian market. – Self-secure technology: the NFC protocol is a short- In order to achieve the research objective, there are range protocol (from touch up to 10 centimeters) some research questions which should be addressed, and represents a secure and self-preserving form as follows: of communication; – Today, customers are unlikely to switch to NFC mo- – Security: NFC has a built-in support possibility for bile payment unless additional services add value various forms of secure protocols and secure appli- and give them a reason to do so. Can we expect sig- cation development; nificant customer transition from NFC contactless – Compatibility: NFC is compatible with all existing cards to NFC mobile phones? contactless communication technologies, includ- – Beside traditional forecast models, which model is ing contactless card technologies. the most appropriate to combine prediction theory The NFC technology offers a range of various pos- and social factors for assessment of the number of sibilities in creating new services when contactless users switching to NFC mobile phones? smart cards are concerned, but it provides the biggest This paper proposes a novel approach to forecast- advantage to mobile applications within m-business. ing the number of new users of NFC mobile phones NFC mobile phones are used for interaction with post- based on fuzzy logic and diffusion theory. ers, magazines, and even with products in shops. With The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 pro- such interactions, certain requirements are initiated or vides background knowledge that supports the rea- specific related information is requested in real time soning behind our research. A description of the fuzzy [13]. In addition, the NFC technology enables mobile logic approach is presented in Section 3. An estima- phones to be transformed into electronic wallets for tion of the relevant parameters for NFC technology payment of a wide spectrum of products and services, 514 Promet – Traffic & Transportation, Vol. 30, 2018, No. 5, 513-524 Stanivuković B, Radojičić V, Marković D, Blagojević M. Demand Forecast of NFC Mobile Users – A Case Study of Serbian Market as well as the integration of debit/credit cards for pay- Future users will obviously be compelled to use ment of goods and services at point-of-sale devices this new technology and its significant advantages [14].
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