A Note on Free Trade Agreements and Their Costs*
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A NOTE ON FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND THEIR COSTS* Dr. V.K. Saraswat1, Prachi Priya2 and Aniruddha Ghosh3 * Disclaimer: Opinions and recommendations in this article are exclusively of the authors and not of any other individual or institution. 1 Dr. V.K. Saraswat is the former DRDO Chief & Secretary Defence R&D, recipient of Padma Shri & Padma Bhushan and is currently Member, NITI Aayog 2 Ms. Prachi Priya is a Mumbai based economist 3 Mr. Aniruddha Ghosh works in the Office of Dr. VK. Saraswat Introduction Trade theory has consistently been a strong proponent of free trade of goods, services, capital and labour. However, a growing wave of protectionism and trade wars have dominated global trade recently. To underscore the prevailing sentiments regarding protectionism, it is instructive to look at what a free-trade champion and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman had to say on the issue of seamless trade: “It’s also true that much of the elite defense of globalization is basically dishonest: false claims of inevitability, scare tactics (protectionism causes depressions!), vastly exaggerated claims for the benefits of trade liberalization and the costs of protection, hand-waving away the large distributional effects that are what standard models actually predict.” New York Times, 9th March, 2016 While it is difficult to assess whether the trade war will lead to a significant shift in the global trade paradigm, in the current scenario India should carefully review existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) before negotiating new ones. Evidences from recent FTAs suggest unfavorable gains to our trade partners. Worsening of our trade balances with our FTA partner countries merits attention. This note identifies India’s trade patterns, its export potential, competitiveness vis-à-vis trade partners, India’s FTA gains and losses and some policy recommendations. India’s Trade Patterns, Value Added and Export Potential India is a fairly open economy with overall trade (exports plus imports) as a percentage of GDP around 40%. Its trade deficit has grown from USD 6bn in FY01 to USD 109bn in FY17 (Table 1). However, India has diversified its exports since the 1990s both geographically and product- wise. In a working paper for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Anand et.al state “structural transformation, future growth and export performance depend on: (i) diversification across destinations, products, and services (ii) composition of the export basket measured by technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of exports and (iii) how closely related a country’s goods and services exports are to globally-traded products and services.” India’s exports have diversified both in terms of markets and products and services in the past two decades. Indian exports have gradually found their way into new markets. The size of developed countries in India’s exports has declined and that of emerging economies has increased. India now exports over 50% of its exports to emerging and developing economies surpassing the share of advanced economies. In fact, European Union (EU) and United States of America (USA) now account for only 30% of India’s total exports compared to 45% in 2000. In terms of the product mix, there has been a gradual shift as the export sector has moved up the value chain, leading the way with high-value products like industrial machinery, automobiles and car parts, and refined petroleum products. Manufactured goods along with petroleum products accounted for nearly 85% of India’s export basket in FY17. A breakdown is available in Table 2. In terms of outward reliance, the foreign content of India’s exports (value of imported intermediate goods and services that are embodied in India’s exports) has increased significantly and across all industries in the last two decades, more than doubling from under 10 percent in 1995 to 24.0 percent in 2011.The share of foreign value addition in the exports of the manufacturing sector is the highest and clocks nearly 50 percent. (OECD Trade-in-value added Database). Figure 1: India’s Trade Balance (USD) over the years (FY’00 – FY’17) India's trade balance (USDbn) 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0.000 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Exports Imports Figure 2: India's exports by category (% share of total exports) FY92 FY02 FY17 Petroleum & crude products 1.8 4.8 11.4 Agricultural & allied products 17.9 13.5 12.1 Ores & minerals 4.0 2.9 1.2 Manufactured goods 74.9 76.1 74.3 Leather & leather manufactures 5.8 4.4 1.9 Chemicals & related products 7.1 9.8 12.2 Engineering goods 12.2 13.2 23.0 Electronic goods 1.4 2.7 2.5 Textiles (excluding readymade garments) 13.0 11.9 6.0 Readymade garments 11.6 11.4 6.3 Other manufactured goods 23.8 22.8 22.4 Other commodities 1.2 2.7 1.1 In terms of export potential, the International Trade Center (ITC) estimates India’s untapped export potential to around USD 201.4bn with a corresponding import potential pegged at USD 181.8bn. Worked diamonds shows the largest absolute difference between potential and actual exports in value terms, leaving room to realize additional exports worth USD 17.2 bn. Also, the markets with greatest potential for India’s exports are United States of America, China and United Arab Emirates. United States of America shows the largest absolute difference between potential and actual exports in value terms, leaving room to realize additional exports worth USD 18.6 bn. These numbers are significant in the view of rising trade volatility. Figure 3: India’s products with Export Potential (ITC Export Potential Map) This infographic is available here. Drivers of India’s Exports It is also important to understand what drives India’s exports. Indian exports are sensitive to price changes, global demand and supply side bottlenecks. The way our export basket has evolved over the past two decades, it has made them much more responsive to global demand as compared to price changes. This is because India now exports more income sensitive items like engineering goods, petroleum, gems and jewelry and chemical products. As per a 2015 IMF paper, in the long- run, “a 1% increase in India’s international relative export prices could reduce export volume growth by about 0.9% for all industries and by about 1.1% for the manufacturing sector.” The long-run coefficient on global demand is estimated to be slightly above 1.5, which suggests that India’s exports are more sensitive to changes in external demand than price changes. Thus, given the export basket composition first, increase in global demand drives India’s exports much more than price cuts. Further, the IMF research suggests that binding supply-side constraints like energy shortages dampen price responsiveness of exports. In case of industry with an energy share of about 4% in the gross value of its output (which is about the average share in manufacturing), a 1% relative price depreciation will result in export growth of 0.6%. However, in the same industry in case of energy deficit of about 10%, the export growth will decline to 0.4%. Second, shows that tackling the issue of energy deficit can boost export performance considerably. Similarly, higher logistics costs have been a major impediment to export growth. Various studies peg logistics cost in India to be around twice of that in developed countries. Average logistics costs in India are about 15% of GDP while such costs in developed countries are about 8%. Improving Ease of trading is a high priority area for the government as Indian exporters face high transaction costs making them less competitive in the global market. The Economic Survey 2017-18 also points out that, “Improved logistics have huge implications on increasing exports, as a 10% decrease in indirect logistics cost can contribute to around 5-8% of extra exports.” In the Global Competitiveness Index 2017-18 compiled by the World Economic Forum, while China ranks 27th, India is placed 13 points below at the 40th place. Competitiveness as a factor plays out crucially in determining export advantage nations have. Table 3 compares India and China on few key competitiveness metrics. Table 1: Global Competitiveness Indicators 2017, compiled by World Economic Forum (WEF) There is no doubt that China is way ahead of India in terms of its manufacturing capability and export performance. United Nations Industrial Development Organization’s (UNIDO) CIP (Competitiveness of Industrial Production) is a composite index that measures “the ability of countries to produce and export manufactured goods competitively”, with 1.0 being the best score. The CIP consists of eight sub-indicators grouped along three dimensions of industrial competitiveness—capacity to produce and export manufactures, technology deepening and upgrading, and world impact. India’s CIP score improved from 0.04 in 2000 to 0.07 in 2010. In comparison, China’s CIP score improved from 0.16 in 2000 to 0.33 in 2010. While India managed to increase its share in world manufacturing value added from 1.1% in 2000 to 2.0% in 2010, China more than doubled its share from 6.7% to 15.0% over the same period. The technological backwardness of Indian manufacturing exports can be gauged by the share of medium and hi-tech activities. India’s share in manufacturing exports improved from 18.7% in 2000 to 28.2% in 2010, but is still far behind that of China’s, 60.2% in 2010. India’s experience with Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have become increasingly prevalent since the early 1990s.