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Abbott V Turnbull: Self- Interest Wins Keys to the Party

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Abbott V Turnbull: Self- Interest Wins Keys to the Party http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/abbott-v-turnbull-self-interest-wins- keys-to-the-party/story-e6frg74x-1227527437019 Abbott v Turnbull: Self- interest wins keys to the party THE AUSTRALIAN SEPTEMBER 15, 2015 12:00AM Paul Kelly Editor-At-Large Sydney Malcolm Turnbull has not won the heart of the Liberal Party but he has commanded its self-interest. The keys to this transformation are Tony Abbott’s multiple blunders, Turnbull’s astute management of his challenge and terror in the Liberal Party at the prospect of being a rejected one-term government. In the end, the cabinet fractured against Abbott. Fulfilling a lifelong dream, Turnbull inherits a daunting task — he must unite a divided Liberal Party, revive its polling fortunes and construct a new and hopeful policy narrative for the country. Abbott’s tragedy is that he made too many mistakes and misjudgments. In further proof of the crisis in our governance, a prime minister has been deposed for a third successive term. The moral is that being a successful prime minister is a harder task than our political culture credits. Turnbull’s long-expected and lethal strike should see a new government, with Scott Morrison as treasurer and Julie Bishop as deputy leader. The defection of Bishop was pivotal to Turnbull’s strike and Abbott’s demise. M Morrison, while voting for Abbott, ran dead in terms of any serious backing for him. Turnbull’s explanation for the challenge yesterday was deadly — that Abbott had failed as a leader and spokesman on the economy, a charge that provoked retaliation from Joe Hockey. Six months ago, however, John Howard advised Abbott that to save his prime ministership he should remove Hockey and appoint Turnbull as treasurer, advice Abbott ignored. The key to this event is the rupture within cabinet. Senior ministers signed up to Abbott’s political assassination. This step will either deliver a re-elected Coalition government or poison the Liberal Party for many years. Bitterness will run deep and Turnbull must bind up the wounds. Turnbull’s arrival as prime minister offers a new hope and style for the Coalition government. It puts ALP leader Bill Shorten under serious pressure, yet it also poses fresh risks in terms of holding the conservative and liberal wings of the party together. Abbott will be seen as a brilliant opposition leader who failed to make a successful transition to the office of prime minister. He never established an emotional rapport with the people. Abbott’s problem was that the government had become too divided to make his prime ministership tenable. For many Liberals, the risk of changing the prime minister and treasurer rated below the risk of sticking with a politically crippled Abbott. Put on notice in February, Abbott failed to manage a sustained recovery. The real logic of any Turnbull victory — though it will probably be denied — is an election not far down the track to seek a popular mandate and a reform agenda that might unlock the obstacles to national progress. The greatest risk in the change to Turnbull is internal disunity and a permanent schism. With the Liberals repeating the Rudd-Gillard history, Turnbull must learn from the past: that means offering a more convincing explanation for his prime ministership than did Julia Gillard in June 2010. The darkest fear in this move was articulated by Abbott last night in his self- defence saying: “We are not the Labor Party.” Everything depends upon Turnbull’s ability to offer a persuasive narrative. The Turnbull challenge was not driven by policy — it was about polls, loss of faith in Abbott, failure to engage on the economy and the poor functioning of government. Too many Liberals lost confidence in Abbott’s ability to resurrect the government’s standing. While Turnbull made the economy the central issue, the obstacles to economic reform run deep, in parliament and in the country. He needs to change the terms of the economic debate but his real task is to devise and carry a reform agenda at the election. Beyond this, he must manage the issue of climate change, given his personal preference for carbon pricing, the ALP policy rejected by the Coalition government. Turnbull failed as leader last time. Since then he has worked hard to show his colleagues a deeper sense of maturity. Turnbull is more popular than Abbott. The risk is the suspicion of the party base towards him. Turnbull must govern for both the conservative and the liberal wings of his party. That constitutes a dilemma — appealing to the centre of politics yet also winning the support of the Liberal base. The ironies of Australian politics never cease to astonish. Six years ago, in December 2009, Abbott defeated Turnbull 42-41 in the partyroom to become Liberal leader. Now Turnbull has reclaimed the mantle 54-44 in a reversal that seemed highly improbable, if not impossible, at the time of Abbott’s 2013 election victory. .
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