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Improving the Calculation of Fisheries Reference Points Influences of Density Dependence and Size Selectivity Van Gemert, Rob

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Improving the Calculation of Fisheries Reference Points Influences of Density Dependence and Size Selectivity Van Gemert, Rob Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Oct 05, 2021 Improving the calculation of fisheries reference points Influences of density dependence and size selectivity van Gemert, Rob Publication date: 2019 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA): van Gemert, R. (2019). Improving the calculation of fisheries reference points: Influences of density dependence and size selectivity. DTU Aqua. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Ph.D. Thesis Doctor in Philosophy DTU Aqua National Institute of Aquatic Resources Improving the calculation of fisheries reference points Influences of density dependence and size selectivity Rob van Gemert Supervisor: Ken Haste Andersen Co-supervisor(s): Martin Lindegren Kgs. Lyngby 2019 DTU Aqua National Institute of Aquatic Resources Technical University of Denmark Kemitorvet, Building 202 2800 Kgs. Lyngby Denmark www.aqua.dtu.dk/english Summary Fisheries reference points are an important tool used by fisheries scientists to give advice on the management of fish stocks. Thus, it is important that fisheries reference points are calculated as accurately as possible. The value of fisheries reference points is strongly affected by density-dependent processes of the fish stock, which determine how vital rates such as growth, mortality, and reproduction change with a change in stock abundance. On top of that, because fish of different sizes often experience different forms of density-dependent regulation, the size-selectivity of a fishery also impacts the density-dependent regulation experienced by the fish stock. Therefore, to accurately calculate the value of fisheries reference points, it is important that the processes of density dependence and size-selectivity are properly incorporated. In spite of the importance of density dependence in regulating fish stocks, most fisheries models disregard the existence of density-dependent growth. However, density- dependent growth is increasingly observed in marine fish stocks. Furthermore, density- dependent growth may also influence the size-selectivity at which maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is obtained. The central aim of this thesis therefore is to contribute to the maximum sustainable exploitation of fish stocks by investigating how density- dependent regulation and size-selectivity, as well as their interplay, affect fisheries reference points, with a particular focus on density-dependent growth. This aim is addressed in three separate papers which are outlined in this thesis. Paper I shows how signs of recovery are appearing among previously overfished large-bodied fish stocks, and raises the question of whether current fisheries advice and management procedures are also well-suited for the management of recovered stocks. The paper shows that recovered stocks are more likely to experience density-dependent growth, which will make reference points calculated with current procedures inaccurate. Furthermore, this paper shows how a biomass increase of large-bodied piscivorous fish can trigger a reverse trophic cascade, where their increased predation mortality on forage fish reduces forage fish productivity and abundance. The resulting decrease in sustainable yield from forage fish stocks could lead to conflicts between forage and large-piscivore fisheries. Paper II examines whether the observed strength of density-dependent growth in actual fish stocks is sufficiently strong to reduce optimal fishery size-at-entry to below size-at-maturity. For this, a size-structured model is fitted to three stocks that have shown indications of late-in-life density-dependent growth: North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), and Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus). The results show that for all examined stocks, ii MSY exploitation takes place when only adults are targeted, indicating that density- dependent growth in fish stocks is generally not strong enough to warrant the targeting of juveniles. Paper III examines the relationship between fecundity and female size, and uses a simple population model to test whether differences in this relationship have a meaningful impact on density-dependent recruitment to the stock. The results indicate that the relationship between fecundity and female size appears to be stock-specific, where some stocks show a power law relationship and others do not. This raises questions on the origin of the relationship between fecundity and female size. However, this study also shows that early-life density dependence often ensures that the type of relationship between fecundity and female size has little to no effect on actual recruitment to the stock. For the MSY management of fish stocks, it therefore matters little whether fecundity scales with female size according to a power law or not. In conclusion, this thesis makes it clear that the calculation of accurate fisheries reference points requires accounting for all relevant density-dependent processes that the stock is subject to, including density-dependent growth. Furthermore, for an accurate calculation of MSY, it is necessary to consider the interplay between size- selectivity and density-dependent growth, and in rare cases the relationship between fecundity and female size. With the recent recovery of many large-bodied fish stocks, it can be expected that density-dependent growth will become a more important process in the regulation of fish stocks, and it should be further studied how density-dependent growth can best be incorporated in the calculation of fisheries reference points. Dansk Resumé Forvaltningen af fiskebestande et bygget op omkring såkaldte referencepunkter. Det er derfor vigtigt, at referencepunkterne for fiskeriet beregnes på et så præcist grundlag som muligt. Fiskerireferencepunkterne er stærkt påvirket af fiskebestandens tæthedsaf- hængige processer, som bestemmer, hvordan vitale satser som vækst, dødelighed og reproduktion ændrer sig med bestandenes størrelse. Fordi fisk af forskellig størrelse ofte oplever forskellige former for tæthedsafhængig regulering, påvirker størrelsesselek- tiviteten af et fiskeri ogsåden tæthedsafhængige regulering i fiskebestanden. For at præcist beregne værdien af referencepunkterne for fiskeriet er det derfor vigtigt, at processerne af tæthedsafhængigheded og størrelsesselektivitet er korrekt indarbejdet. På trods af vigtigheden af tæthedafhængighed i reguleringen af fiskebestande ignorerer de fleste fiskerimodeller eksistensen af tæthedsafhængig vækst. Tætheds- afhængig vækst er dog i stigende grad observeret i marine fiskebestande. Desuden kan densitetsafhængig vækst ogsåpåvirke størrelsesselektiviteten, hvorved der opnås maksimalt bæredygtigt udbytte (MSY). Det centrale formål med denne afhandling er derfor at bidrage til den maksimale bæredygtige udnyttelse af fiskebestandene ved at undersøge, hvordan tæthedsafhængig regulering og størrelsesselektivitet samt deres samspil påvirker referencepunkterne for fiskeriet, med særlig fokus påtæthedsafhængig vækst. Dette mål er behandlet i tre separate artikler: Artikel I viser at der er tegn pågenopretning blandt tidligere overfiskede fiskebe- stande. Derfra rejses spørgsmålet om, hvorvidt de nuværende forvaltningsprocedurer ogsåer velegnede til forvaltning af genvundne bestande. Artiklen viser, at genopbyggede bestande er mere tilbøjelige til at opleve tæthedsafhængig vækst, hvilket kan gøre referencepunkter beregnet med de nuværende procedurer unøjagtige. Desuden viser artikelen, hvordan en biomasseforøgelse af store fisk kan udløse en omvendt trofisk kaskade, hvor deres øgede prædationsdødelighed påsmå industrifisk reducerer produk- tionen af industrifisk. Det resulterende fald i bæredygtigt udbytte fra fiskebestandende kan føre til konflikter mellem fiskerier på industrifisk og konsumfisk. Artikel II undersøger, om den observerede styrke af densitetsafhængig vækst i faktiske fiskebestande er tilstrækkelig stærk til at reducere optimal fiskestørrelse ved indgang til under størrelse. Til dette er der udviklet en størrelsesstruktureret model af tre fiskebestande, der har vist tegn påtæthedsafhængig vækst: Nordsøspætte (Pleuronectes platessa), Nordøstlantisk makrel (Scomber scombrus) og Baltisk brisling (Sprattus sprattus balticus). Resultaterne viser, at MSY-udnyttelsen for alle undersøgte bestande finder sted, når kun fiskeriet kun er rettet mod voksne individer, hvilket iv tyder på, at tæthedsafhængig vækst i fiskebestande generelt ikke er stærk nok til at berettige et målrettet fiskeri på juvenile individer. Artikel III undersøger forholdet mellem ægproduktion og størrelse af hunner og bruger en simpel population model til at teste om forskelle om dette forhold har en meningsfuld indvirkning påtæthedsafhængig rekruttering til bestanden. Resultaterne viser, at forholdet mellem ægproduktion og størrelse af hunner ser ud til at
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