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O Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie
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T Space Weather!
Northern lights, Aurora!
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T The Sun’s huge atmosphere, the “corona”
Eclipse and LASCO-C2 coronagraph images processed and merged by Serge Koutchmy The Sun’s corona, well-known from eclipses
The eclipse of 30.6.1973, recorded and processed by S. Koutchmy. ing t
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t T O A wind, which thus becomes equatorial plane are due to
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T Christmas 1996: Two types of corona and solar wind
ht and in green lig vered in ere disco “holes” w Coronal X-rays
Yohkoh SXT 3-5 Million K Two types of corona and solar wind
ion al emiss ot” coron t in all “h apparen holes are Coronal lines
EIT: 19.5 nm 1.5 Million K The two states of corona and solar wind
nto stream boundaries es: they transform nicely i Note the coronal hole edg
The corona of the active sun (1998), viewed by EIT and LASCO-C1/C2 The “quiet” Sun and its minimum corona
LASCO C1/C2, on 1.2. 1996
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The “musical diagram” of geomagnetic activity, according to the scheme introduced by Bartels (1930) Often ignored: High speed streams from coronal holes (i.e. the inactive” sun) cause (moderate) activity: They are the “M-regions”!
The “musical diagram” of geomagnetic activity, according to the scheme introduced by Bartels (1930) Often ignored: High speed streams from coronal holes (i.e. the inactive” sun) cause (moderate) activity: They are the “M-regions”!
as Kp ces such etic indi ary eomagn o contr e that g from tw Not ibutions and the n contr regions” contai ular “M- ms! : the reg ong stor sources aring str rly appe irregula
The “musical diagram” of geomagnetic activity, according to the scheme introduced by Bartels (1930) 7 years of data, arranged by solar rotations:
•IP Magnetic field, •Coronal holes, •Solar wind speed •Geomagntic index.
eters in the ns in all param regular patter n 1975. Note the ity minimum i ., around activ upper half, i.e
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S Some CMEs are spectacular!
Most big CMEs show a characteristic 3-part structure: • bright outer loop, •dark void • bright inner kernel There is a huge variety of CMEs
Here comes a “balloon-type” CME, observed by LASCO-C1 , on June 21, 1998.
It also shows the characteristic 3-part structure:
• bright outer loop, •dark void • bright inner kernel
This balloon took some 30 hours to finally take off! It was the offspring of an eruptive prominence. It ran away at about the slow wind speed, probably no shock was associated with it. alpha and
s -
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M 21, 1998 ed in H
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f serv the K-line during its lloon type CME on June b erupted and led to the The filament had been
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June 21-22, 1998 4 4 Leading Edge(C2+C3) Fe XIV Prominence top (C2+C3) Fe XIV (prom) Fe X (top) H-alpha(top) Prominence Tail (C2+C3) i GOES C-class i Radio d 3 flare 3 a H-alpha(lower) Fe X(lower) lar R o
S YOHKOH brightening in e c
an 2 Prominence Ascension 2 st i D
1 1 06 12 18 24 30 Time in Hours The time history of the June 21 balloon event There is a huge variety of CMEs
This is what the balloon-type CME finally looked like!
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F How do ejecta and shocks propagate?
LASCO Helios CMEs shocks
Local speeds of about 400 shocks, observed between 0.3 and 1 AU by Helios from 1974 to 1986, compared to LASCO CME speeds. Apparently, there is no significant deceleration beyond 0.3 AU. It must occur closer to the sun! !
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E ”...one swallow does not make a summer!” basic “magnetic disease” of the sun.
M The simple but important conclusions from these studies:
C ter. Note what the “fa la Flares and CMEs are probably symptoms of a more Flares occurring also to notice the connection with Carrington was the first man who happen
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N Why does Bz turn south in CMEs?
When a flux rope passes an observer, he may encounter
Bz south fields at times
The flux rope topology of a magnetic cloud in interplanetary space. Why does Bz turn south in CMEs?
The topology and orientation of filaments and the magnetic clouds eventually ejected from there were found to be consistent in most cases
The flux rope topologies of magnetic clouds in interplanetary space. All 4 types are observed and correspond well to their filament sources But their geoefficiency differs dramatically! shock cloud
It is not the shock wave per se that
causes the storm, it is the southward Bz that may (or may not!) occur in the sheath and the magnetic cloud!
Relation of a strong geomagnetic storm with the arrival of a magnetic cloud A SEN cloud at 1 AU A NES cloud at 1 AU Note how different the g eomagnetic response is, despite the similarity of both: the clou d pattern and the Forbush decrease! Halo CMEs: a new quality from SOHO
A classical “halo” CME, observed by LASCO-C2 on 4.11.1998
Towards or away from Earth? That knowledge would grant space weather predictions a new quality Front or backside: a new quality from SOHO
A pressure wave (EIT Wave) in the solar atmosphere, pushed by a flare on 7.4.1997. It launched a halo CME towards earth and caused a geomagnetic storm on 10.4.97.
on-waves”. seen long ago: “Moret ilar features had been In H-alpha, sim ! They are not the same l by
O
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a NASA NN tremendous press activity he
H f C a t a This event caused: - - - - 10, 1997, O
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H The first halo CME observed by LASCO
The famous January 6, 1997, event, (during an ISTP meeting...)
Eruptive prominence Jan.6, 14:00 Shock at 1 AU Jan.10, 00:10 Travel time: 78.5 hours Average travel speed 530 Althoukm/sgh it was a really faint, slow, and unspectacular CME, it caused moKp stmax dramatic effects in geospace, but not before Jan. 11! 6 The events of Jan. 9 to 12, close to Earth
Bz turns south!
Consequence: a geomagnetic storm!
Kp-Index
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T The biggest flare of the present solar cycle, The “Bastille event”, with all blows and whistles: July 14, 2000
An op tical te Cos lescop mic Ra e as a y dete ctor...!
The huge solar mass ejection on July 14, 2000, observed by LASCO-C3.
The “snow shower” is due to particles, accelerated to extremely high speeds during the ejection. They penetrate the instrument walls and let the CCD scintillate. flare B
Bz GOES-X-rays
SW density
shock cloud SW speed
Dst-Index
The “Bastille 2000” events
Kp-Index
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B That was the auroral oval on July 16, 2000:
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aurorae all over the USA and even middle Europe!
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X 5.7 flare: July 14, 10:24 Arrival of energetic particles at 1 AU: 10:38 Shock at 1 AU: July 15, 14:29 Travel time: 28 hours
Initial CME speed: >1775 km/s Average travel speed: 1520 km/s ig Flare vers of the B se for the lo Shock speed at 1 AU: 900 classical ca A mkm/se: Kp max: Syndro disk, of the solar9 the middle are, right in Dst min: -300 a real big fl • ME, nT oud, y fast halo C agnetic cl • a ver time, with m ock, right in • a fast sh tic storm. g geomagnAurorae in Essen, Germany, on July 16, 2000 at a very stron titude
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T s s ASCA fix resulting in solar array misali probably lost GOES-8 & -10 ACE problems WIND lo SOHO imagery GEO • • • • • • 14-16 July 2000: proton event & geomagneti How to predict travel times of halo CMEs? We cannot measure the speed towards the earth! Trying to characterize a halo CME:
V front • use pairs of images from C2 andC3, • determine speed of outermost front: • determine maximum expansion speed • also: minimum expansion speed
Note though: often the expansion speed varies dramatically between the first appearance above the C2 occulter and the outer edge of C3. V exp. The „travel time“ of a CME is the time difference between the first appearance in C2 and the arrival of the associated V min shock at SOHO.OT give ime does N the travel t y! Note that eo-efficienc potential g a handle on Comparing predictions with We have analyzed about 200r haloea CMEslity and... their shocks at 1 AU, from Observed travel time (hrs) 1997 on
Shocks come too late ...
That’s too Brueckner‘s rule: the travel time to 1 AU is 80 shrs!imple…
...or too early!
Predicted travel time (hrs), from CME lateral expansion
Conclusion as of today: We have not yet found the optimum prediction tool... Research topics for the future:
• How to predict CMEs/flares before they occur?
Sigmoids? Research topics for the future:
• How to predict CMEs/flares before they occur?
• What is the role of reconnection: driver, trigger, sequel? Research topics for the future:
• How to predict CMEs/flares before they occur?
• What is the role of reconnection: driver, trigger, sequel?
• Formation, topology, propagation, effects of shock waves? Research topics for the future:
• How to predict CMEs/flares before they occur?
• What is the role of reconnection: driver, trigger, sequel?
• Formation, topology, propagation, effects of shock waves?
• Topology evolution: from CMEs to interplanetary clouds? ? Research topics for the future:
• How to predict CMEs/flares before they occur?
• What is the role of reconnection: driver, trigger, sequel?
• Formation, topology, propagation, effects of shock waves?
• Topology evolution: from CMEs to interplanetary clouds?
• How to predict geoeffectiveness?
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