Spring 2018 - Vanderbilt University Poll

April 26 – May 8, 2018

John G. Geer & Joshua D. Clinton, Co-Directors

May 16, 2018

1,400 registered voters in Tennessee

MoE: +/- 3.6 percentage points Name Recognition of Candidates for Governor Over Time

100%

86%

80% 68%

59% 60% 53% 47% 49% 41% 40% 40% 38% 33% 34% 33% 26%

20% 14%14% 13% % responding yes, have heard ofheard have yes, responding % 8%10%

0% Dean Boyd Harwell Lee Fitzhugh Black

May-17 Dec-18 May-18 Name Recognition of Candidates for Governor by Region 100% 98% 88% 82% 83%

80% 74% 74% 71% 70% 63% 60% 60% 57% 52% 48% 46% 44% 40% 31% 31% 30% 24% 22% 18% 20% 15% 13% 9%

0% Dean Boyd Harwell Lee Fitzhugh Black East Nashville Central Memphis/West Favorability of Gubernatorial Candidates Among those Who Recognize their Name 100%

80%

60% 53% 53% 55%

45% 44%46% 37% 40% 34% 34% 35% 29% 25% 27% 20% 19% 20% 17% 13% 9%

0% Dean Boyd Harwell Lee Fitzhugh Black (Name (Name (Name (Name (Name (Name Rec. 47%) Rec. 68%) Rec. 53%) Rec. 33%) Rec. 13%) Rec. 86%) Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Favorability of Republican Gubernatorial Candidates by Republicans 100%

80% 71% 66% 63% 60% 56%

40%

21% 22% 18% 18% 18% 18% 20% 16% 11%

0% Boyd Harwell Lee Black Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Favorability of Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates by Democrats 100%

80% 73%

60% 55%

40% 35%

19% 20% 10% 7%

0% Dean Fitzhugh Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Name Recognition of Senate Candidates

100%

85% 84% 80% 73%

65% 60%

Dec-17 May-18 40%

% responding yes, have heard ofheard have yes, responding % 20%

0% Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen Favorability of Senate Candidates by Respondents Who Recognize Their Name

100%

80%

67%

60% Favorable 49% Unfavorable 40% 38% Don't Know

25% 20% 12% 7%

0% Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen Favorability of Senate Candidates Among People Who Recognize Their Name by Party ID

100%

85% 80% 72% 69%

60% 52% Republicans 44% Democrats 40% Independents

23% 20% % responding have a favorable opinion a favorable have responding %

0% Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen Matching Up Favorability of Senate Candidates

100%

80%

60%

42% 40% 29% 24% 20% 5% 0% Favorable to Unfavorable to Favorable to Favorable to both Blackburn both Blackburn Blackburn but Bredesen but and Bredesen and Bredesen not Bredesen not Blackburn Job Approval of Elected Officials Over Last Year

100%

80% 66% 61% 63% 60% 52% 53% 53% 52% 48% 50% 49% 44% 47% 40%

20%

0% Donald Trump Bill Haslam Lamar Alexander Bob Corker May-17 52% 61% 50% 52% Dec-17 48% 63% 44% 47% May-18 53% 66% 53% 49% Opinions on Medicaid Expansion by Party ID Tennessee is one of 18 states that has chosen not to expand Medicaid, which would allow more low-income uninsured adults to have health insurance. Overall, do you support or oppose Medicaid expansion in Tennessee? 100% 89%

80% 66% 66% 60% 48% 46% 40% 30% 30%

20% 10%

0% Support Oppose Total Republican Democrat Independent Opinion on Medicaid Expansion(among those originally against)When a Work-Requirement is Introduced by Party ID–N=428 Some states require low-income, able-bodied adults without children to work in order to receive health insurance through Medicaid. Would you still oppose Medicaid Expansion in Tennessee if low income, able-bodied adults without children were required to work in order to receive Medicaid benefits, or would you now support expansion. 100%

80% 72% 68% 67% 65% 60%

40% 30% 31% 32% 26% 20%

0% Support if work requirement Still oppose even with work requirement Total Republican Democrat Independent Opinions on School Officials Carrying Guns in Schools by Party ID Do you favor allowing teachers and school officials to carry a gun in school if they meet certain requirements, or do you oppose this?

100%

80% 76% 73%

60% 52% 49% 49% 46% 40%

26% 23% 20%

0% Favor Oppose Total Republicans Democrats Independents Opinions on Parkland Student Protests by Party ID Thinking about the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida this past February…Do you think those high school students and their protests against gun violence are having a generally positive impact or a generally negative impact on the gun control debate in this country? 100%

82% 80% 74%

59% 60% 50% 47%

40% 38%

22% 20% 16%

0% Positive Negative Total Republicans Democrats Independents Views on Opioid Addiction in Tennessee December 2017- May 2018 Do you think the opioid addiction in the state of Tennessee is a state of emergency, a major problem but not an emergency, a minor problem or not a problem at all?

60% 52% 45% 39% 40% 34%

20%

8% 9% 3% 3% 0% State Major Minor Not a problem emergency problem but problem at all not an emergency Dec-17 May-18 Views on Children of Undocumented Immigrants and In-State Tuition by Party ID 100%

86%

80%

65% 65% 60% 50% 46%

40% 32% 32%

20% 13%

0% Yes, they should be eligible No, they should not be eligible Total Republican Democrat Independent Top 3 Priorities of TN State Government Over Time

Which of the following do you think should be the top priority of the Tennessee state government?

80%

60% 60% 60% 50% 48% 48% 44% 40% 36% 40% 31% 31% 29% 28% 31% 27% 27% 29% 30% 28% 24% 27% 21% 24% 18% 24% 22% 18% 21% 21% 23% 20% 18% 12% 20% 17% 18% 19% 17% 10% 15%

0% May Dec. May Dec. May Nov. May Nov. May Nov. May Dec. May 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 Economy Health Care Education Top Four Priorities For Tennessee State Government by Party ID 100%

80%

60%

40% 33% 27% 27% 25% 22% 20% 21% 20% 20% 21% 18% 18% 18% 20% 16% 17% 14%

0% Education Economy Health Care Infrastructure Total Republican Democrat Independent Top Four Priorities For Tennessee State Government by Region 100%

80%

60%

40%

28% 27% 26% 26% 24% 23% 21% 22% 19% 19% 19% 17% 20% 15% 16% 16% 13%

0% Education Economy Health Care Infrastructure East Nashville Central Memphis/West Opinion on Local Government Autonomy From the State by Party ID Do you think (local governments have the right to make decisions on local matters without financial penalties from the state government such as reduced funding), or do you think (the state government should be permitted to impose financial penalties on a local government if the state disagrees with them on a local issue)? 100%

80% Total 63% 57% Republican 60% 53% 55% Democrat 35% 40% 32% 30% 30% Independent

20% 14% 10% 9% 7% 0% Local governments State government Don't know have the right to should be permitted make decision on to impose financial local matters w/o penalties on local financial penalty government from state Opinion on Type of Community the Federal Government Helps Most 100%

Total 80% Republican

Democrat 60% 57% 52% 52% Independent 48%

40% 40% 37% 38% 32%

20%

6% 3% 2% 2% 0% More to help people More to help people Helps both about living in and around living in rural areas equally large cities and small towns Opinion on Type of Community State Government Helps Most 100%

Total 80% Republican

Democrat 57% 60% 54% 52% Independent 49%

38% 36% 40% 34% 32%

20% 10% 5% 2% 3% 0% More to help people More to help people Helps both about living in and around living in rural areas equally large cities and small towns Opinions on Teachers Salaries by Party ID Do you think public school teachers in Tennessee are currently being paid too much, not enough, or about the right amount?

100% 89%

80% 77% 77% 72%

60% Total Republicans Democrats 40% Independents

20% 20% 16% 18%

7% 7% 6% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% Too much Not enough About the right Don't know amount Opinions on Teachers Salaries and Statewide Testing Results by Party ID Should teacher’s whose students do well on statewide tests get paid more than teachers whose students do poorly 100% on tests?

80% 69% 65% 65% 60% 60% Total Republicans Democrats 37% 40% Independents 30% 32% 23% 20%

7% 3% 2% 2% 0% Yes No Don't know