WIDER Working Paper 2020/124 The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918–20 An interpretative survey in the time of COVID-19 Prema-chandra Athukorala1 and Chaturica Athukorala2 October 2020 Abstract: The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-20—commonly known as the Spanish flu— infected over a quarter of the world’s population and killed over 50 million people. It is by far the greatest humanitarian disaster caused by infectious disease in modern history. Epidemiologists and health scientists often draw on this experience to set the plausible upper bound (the ‘worst case scenario’) on future pandemic mortality. The purpose of this study is to piece together and analyse the scattered multi-disciplinary literature on the pandemic in order to place debates on the evolving course of the current COVID-19 crisis in historical perspective. The analysis focuses on the changing characteristics of pathogens and disease over time, the institutional factors that shaped the global spread, and the demographic and socio-economic consequences. Key words: Spanish flu, COVID-19, pandemic, infectious JEL classification: F50, I10, O50, Z19 Acknowledgements: The authors are grateful to Sisira Jayasuriya for stimulating their interest in this subject and to Wishnu Mahraddhika and Wannaphong Durogkaveroj for assistance with accessing Indonesian- and Thai-language literature, respectively. They thank Soma Athukorala for help with the literature search and gratefully acknowledge comments received from Tony Addison, Hal Hill, and the participants of the Trade and Development Seminar in the Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Australian National University. 1 Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; corresponding author:
[email protected]; 2 Department of Medical Imaging, The Canberra Hospital, Australia,
[email protected] This study has been prepared within the UNU-WIDER project on Academic excellence.