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A Random Walk Down Wall Street Including a Life-Cycle Guide to Personal Investing

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A Random Walk Down Wall Street Including a Life-Cycle Guide to Personal Investing Page 3 A Random Walk Down Wall Street Including A Life-Cycle Guide To Personal Investing Burton G. Malkiel Chemical Bank Chairman's Professor of Economics At Princeton University Page 4 Copyright © 1999, 1996, 1990, 1985, 1981, 1975, 1973 by W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America The text of this book is composed in Zapf Elliptical with the display set in Berling. Desktop composition by Justine Burkat Trubey Manufacturing by the Haddon Craftsmen, Inc. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Malkiel, Burton G. A random walk down Wall Street : including a life-cycle guide to personal investing / Burton G. Malkiel. p. cm. Rev. ed. of: a random walk down Wall Street. c1996. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-393-04781-4 1. Investments. 2. Stocks. 3. Random walks (Mathematics) I. Malkiel, Burton G. Random walk down Wall Street. II. Title. HG4521 .M284 1999 332.6—dc21 98-50671 CIP W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 http://www.wwnorton.com W. W. Norton & Company Ltd., 10 Coptic Street, London WC1A 1PU 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Page 7 CONTENTS Preface 13 Acknowledgments from Earlier Editions 17 Part One Stocks and Their Value 1. Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air 23 What Is a Random Walk? 24 Investing as a Way of Life Today 26 Investing in Theory 28 The Firm-Foundation Theory 29 The Castle-in-the-Air Theory 31 How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted 33 2. The Madness of Crowds 35 The Tulip-Bulb Craze 36 The South Sea Bubble 39 The Florida Real Estate Craze 45 Wall Street Lays an Egg 46 An Afterword 53 3. Stock Valuation from the Sixties through the Nineties 55 The Sanity of Institutions 55 The Soaring Sixties 57 The New "New Era": The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze 57 Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom 61 Performance Comes to the Market: The Bubble in Concept Stocks 69 The Sour Seventies 73 The Nifty Fifty 73 The Roaring Eighties 76 The Triumphant Return of New Issues 76 Concepts Conquer Again: The Biotechnology Bubble 78 Page 8 The Chinese Romance with the Lycoris Plant 80 Some Other Bubbles of the 1980s 81 What Does It All Mean? 85 The Nervy Nineties 85 The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks 85 The Internet Craze of the Late 1990s 90 A Final Word 94 4. The Firm-Foundation Theory of Stock Prices 95 The "Fundamental" Determinants of Stock Prices 96 Two Important Caveats 103 Testing the Rules 106 One More Caveat 108 What's Left of the Firm Foundation? 111 Part Two How the Pros Play the Biggest Game in Town 5. Technical and Fundamental Analysis 117 Technical versus Fundamental Analysis 118 What Can Charts Tell You? 119 The Rationale for the Charting Method 124 Why Might Charting Fail to Work? 126 From Chartist to Technician 127 The Technique of Fundamental Analysis 128 Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work? 132 Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together 134 6. Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory 138 Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts 138 Is There Momentum in the Stock Market? 140 Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk? 142 Some More Elaborate Technical Systems 145 The Filter System 146 The Dow Theory 146 The Relative-Strength System 147 Price-Volume Systems 148 Reading Chart Patterns 148 Randomness Is Hard to Accept 149 A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money 150 Page 9 The Hemline Indicator 151 The Super Bowl Indicator 153 The Odd-Lot Theory 153 A Few More Systems 155 Technical Market Gurus 155 Why Are Technicians Still Hired? 159 Appraising the Counterattack 160 Implications for Investors 163 7. How Good Is Fundamental Analysis? 165 The Views from Wall Street and Academia 166 Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant? 166 Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded 170 1. The Influence of Random Events 171 2. The Creation of Dubious Reported Earnings through "Creative" Accounting 172 Procedures 3. The Basic Incompetence of Many of the Analysts Themselves 174 4. The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk or to Portfolio Management 177 Do Security Analysts Pick Winners? The Performance of the Mutual Funds 178 Can Any Fundamental System Pick Winners? 186 The Verdict on Market Timing 187 The Semi-strong and Strong Forms of the Random-Walk Theory 190 The Middle of the Road: A Personal Viewpoint 193 Part Three The New Investment Technology 8. A New Walking Shoe: Modern Portfolio Theory 199 The Role of Risk 200 Defining Risk: The Dispersion of Returns 201 Exhibit 201 Expected Return and Variance: Measures of Reward and Risk 201 Documenting Risk: A Long-Run Study 204 Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) 206 Diversification in Practice 211 9. Reaping Reward by Increasing Risk 220 Beta and Systematic Risk 221 Page 10 The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 224 Let's Look at the Record 229 An Appraisal of the Evidence 232 The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk: Arbitrage Pricing Theory 234 A Summing Up 237 10. The Assault on the Random-Walk Theory: Is the Market Predictable after All? 240 Predictable Patterns in the Behavior of Stock Prices 242 1. Stocks Do Sometimes Get on One-Way Streets 243 2. But Eventually Stock Prices Do Change Direction and Hence Stockholder Returns 244 Tend to Reverse Themselves 3. Stocks Are Subject to Seasonal Moodiness, Especially at the Beginning of the Year 247 and the End of the Week Predictable Relationships between Certain "Fundamental" Variables and Future Stock 249 Prices 1. Smaller Is Often Better 249 2. Stocks with Low Price-Earnings Multiples Outperform Those with High Multiples 251 3. Stocks that Sell at Low Multiples of Their Book Values Tend to Produce Higher 253 Subsequent Returns 4. Higher Initial Dividends and Lower Price-Earnings Multiples Have Meant Higher 254 Subsequent Returns 5. The "Dogs of the Dow" Strategy 258 And the Winner Is . 259 The Performance of Professional Investors 259 Concluding Comments 267 Appendix: The Market Crash of October 1987 270 Part Four A Practical Guide for Random Walkers and Other Investors 11. A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers 277 Exercise 1: Cover Thyself with Protection 278 Exercise 2: Know Your Investment Objectives 281 Exercise 3: Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can 289 Pension Plans and IRAs 289 Keogh Plans 290 Roth IRAs 293 Page 11 Tax-Deferred Annuities 294 Exercise 4: Be Competitive; Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation 295 Money-Market Mutual Funds 295 Money-Market Deposit Accounts 297 Bank Certificates 299 Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds 300 Exercise 5: Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country 301 Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Generate Large Future Returns 302 No-Load Bond Funds Are Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors 303 Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors 305 Hot TIPS: Inflation Indexed Bonds 307 Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie? 309 Exercise 6: Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home; Renting Leads to Flabby Investment 310 Muscles Exercise 7: Beef Up with Real Estate Investment Trusts 313 Exercise 8: Tiptoe through the Investment Fields of Gold and Collectibles 318 Exercise 9: Remember that Commission Costs Are Not Random Some Are Cheaper than 322 Others Exercise 10: Diversify Your Investment Steps 324 A Final Checkup 324 12. Handicapping the Financial Race: A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns from 326 Stocks and Bonds What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds? 326 Three Eras of Financial Market Returns 331 Era I: The Age of Comfort 333 Era II: The Age of Angst 334 Era III: The Age of Exuberance 340 The Age of the Millennium 342 Appendix: Projecting Returns for Individual Stocks 347 13. A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing 351 Four Asset Allocation Principles 352 1. Risk and Reward Are Related 352 2. Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You 352 Hold Your Investment Page 12 3. Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds 356 4. The Risks You Can Afford to Take Depend on Your Total Financial Situation 360 Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan 362 1. Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets 363 2. Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk 363 3. Persistent Savings in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off 367 The Life-Cycle Investment Guide 368 14. Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street 372 The No-Brainer Step: Investing in Index Funds 373 The Index Fund Solution: A Summary 375 A Broader Definition of Indexing 378 A Specific Index Fund Portfolio 382 The Tax-Managed Index Fund 383 The Do-It-Yourself Step: Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules 386 The Substitute-Player Step: Hiring a Professional Wall-Street Walker 391 Risk Level 394 Unrealized Gains 394 Expense Ratios 395 The Morningstar Mutual-Fund Information Service 395 A Primer on Mutual-Fund Costs 398 Loading Fees 399 Expense Charges 399 Comparing Mutual-Fund Costs 400 The Malkiel Step 401 A Paradox 405 Some Last Reflections on Our Walk 406 A Random Walker's Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds 409 Bibliography 429 Index 445 Page 13 PREFACE It has now been close to thirty years since I began writing the first edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. The message of the original edition was a very simple one: Investors would be far better off buying and holding an index fund than attempting to buy and sell individual securities or actively managed mutual funds.
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