POLITICS AND POLICY IN BRAD ROVIN P C E E WALL’S SASKATCHEWAN H S T Daniel Béland SASKATCHEWAN L E S Compared with the other provinces, Saskatchewan did not face a profound S E economic downturn in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial and economic P C crisis. Instead, the province and the country witnessed Saskatchewan’s economic ROVIN “success story,” which was replicated in the political realm by Premier Brad Wall’s strong popularity, both within and outside his province. Why has Wall proved so successful, from a political standpoint? What policy challenges will the next premier of Saskatchewan face? Adopting a historical perspective on Saskatchewan politics, Daniel Béland provides tentative answers to these questions. Contrairement à d’autres provinces, la Saskatchewan n’a pas connu de ralentissement prononcé de l’activité économique au lendemain de la crise économique et financière de 2008. La province et le pays dans son entier ont été plutôt témoins de son succès économique et de sa réussite dans le domaine politique avec la popularité du premier ministre Brad Wall, tant dans sa province qu’ailleurs au pays. Pourquoi les efforts de Brad Wall ont-ils été couronnés de succès sur le plan politique ? Plus important encore, une fois que les résultats de l’élection seront connus, quels défis politiques le prochain premier ministre de la Saskatchewan devrait-il relever ? Adoptant une perspective historique, Daniel Béland formule des réponses provisoires à ces questions. n office as premier of Saskatchewan since November Although it would be easy to cite Lingenfelter’s apparent 2007, Brad Wall has become one of the most popu- lack of charisma to explain Wall’s political success, other I lar provincial politicians of his generation. factors are more likely to account for the premier’s According to a Vision Critical & Angus Reid online poll favourable position ahead of what looks, to most observers, conducted earlier this year, for instance, 63 percent of like an easy re-election. the Saskatchewan respondents approved of the premier’s The first factor to explain Wall’s popularity is the handling of the province’s business. This flattering current strength of Saskatchewan’s economy, which has approval rating means that Wall is, by far, the most pop- more to do with natural resources and favourable inter- ular premier in the country. In early September, a Praxis national market conditions than with the policies of the Analytics survey conducted for the Saskatoon Saskatchewan Party. Saskatchewan is a province rich StarPhoenix and the Regina Leader-Post showed that with oil, natural gas, potash, uranium and agricultural Wall’s Saskatchewan Party had a 37-point lead over the resources. This diverse and imposing resource base is by provincial NDP. Considering that a provincial election far the biggest source of wealth for the sparsely populat- takes place in Saskatchewan on November 7, these were ed province. A cursory look at the main economic indi- very reassuring numbers for Wall and his party. Unless a cators suggests that the province’s economic and fiscal last-minute change in voter support takes place, Wall is situation is, at the moment, favourable. In June 2011 the nearly certain to win the fall’s electoral battle against the unemployment rate in Saskatchewan was the lowest in Saskatchewan NPD, led by former provincial cabinet the country, at a mere 4.9 percent. Despite clear chal- minister Dwain Lingenfelter. lenges related to the unstable nature of commodity The NDP has been struggling to score political points prices and revenues, the province’s public finances since Lingenfelter became opposition leader in 2008. remain favourable compared to those in other provinces. Despite his sometimes harsh attacks, he has failed to gain For the 2011-2012 fiscal year, the province should regis- ground against the younger and more popular Wall. ter a modest budget surplus of $115 million. 34 OPTIONS POLITIQUES NOVEMBRE 2011 Politics and policy in Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan n light of these favourable eco- remain politically relevant in the of the basic personal income tax I nomic and fiscal realities, when context of a provincial “success exemption that benefits low-income trying to explain Wall’s undeniable story” the Saskatchewan Party is earners more than higher earners. political success, one could quote claiming credit for. That hardly constitutes a declaration Bill Clinton’s former adviser James Although Wall inherited sound of war on socialism.” Beyond the Carville and simply declare that “it’s public finances from the NDP era field of labour relations, it is undeni- the economy, stupid.” However, as while benefiting from comparatively able that the Wall government has often in politics, things are more favourable economic conditions, it not launched any type of overtly ide- complex than that, as other factors would be unfair to reduce his political ological and political crusade to help explain why the Saskatchewan success to these two factors. The truth erase the legacy of social democratic premier is in such a good political is that the Saskatchewan premier is a province-building in Saskatchewan. In June 2011 the unemployment rate in Saskatchewan was he most conspicuous the lowest in the country, at a mere 4.9 percent. Despite clear T example of Wall’s cen- challenges related to the unstable nature of commodity prices trist approach to provin- cial governance is the way and revenues, the province’s public finances remain he handled the Potash favourable compared to those in other provinces. For the Corp. file, in what remains 2011-2012 fiscal year, the province should register a modest the most spectacular polit- budget surplus of $115 million. ical episode of his premier- ship. When Wall stood up position on the eve of his likely re- shrewd politician who has typically to oppose the proposed takeover of election. A key factor that his oppo- avoided bold ideological gestures to Potash Corp. by a foreign company, nents are eager to raise is that Wall adopt a seemingly moderate, centre- BHP Billiton, he adopted a populist ironically benefits from the work right agenda that seems largely in tune stance that transformed him into that was done by the NPD during its with the majority of the electorate on someone willing to publicly chal- years in office, under the leadership most issues. lenge his federal Conservative allies of Premiers Lorne Calvert (2001- Of course, the Saskatchewan to protect the alleged long-term eco- 2007) and, especially, Roy Romanow Party remains on the right of the nomic interests of Saskatchewan. (1991-2001). As former Romanow political spectrum, something espe- Although many economists and government finance minister Janice cially visible in the field of labour investment specialists criticized his MacKinnon and others have empha- relations. Since taking office, the approach, it is undeniable that, from sized, when the NDP took office in Wall government has antagonized a political standpoint, Wall’s decision 1991 after nearly a decade of Con- the powerful provincial labour to push the Harper government to servative rule under Premier Grant movement on a number of occa- block the sale of Potash Corp. to “for- Devine (1982-1991), Saskatchewan sions, over issues such as union certi- eign interests” was a political master- faced a “fiscal crisis” that pushed the fication and essential services. stroke that increased the premier’s Romanow government to take bold Beyond these issues, however, that national profile and strengthened his — and frequently unpopular — government has, under most circum- position in the province. Politically, actions like the closing of rural hos- stances, refused to adopt a radical Wall’s behaviour and discourse in the pitals to rapidly improve the budget- conservative agenda that could have 2010 Potash Corp. debate generally ary situation. In the end, the NDP alienated larger segments of the pop- silenced the NDP opposition, which succeeded in balancing the provin- ulation. For example, Wall has not could hardly attack a premier who cial budget. even discussed the possible large- claimed to defend Saskatchewan Moreover, we should keep in scale privatization of the province’s against “foreign interests.” mind that the Wall government has Crown corporations, in large part a Regardless of the policy sound- maintained central economic policy legacy of previous NDP govern- ness of Wall’s approach to the Potash decisions like the cuts in business ments. Interestingly, when Wall file, this episode represented the taxes and the new royalty structure acted like a genuine conservative most striking political success of the for potash made during the Calvert and embraced a comprehensive tax- ruling Saskatchewan Party. Through years. Today, Saskatchewan and the cut agenda, he did so in a way that this episode, Wall found a way to Wall government benefit from the the provincial NDP could not argue convince the public to fight with him policy choices made in the 1990s and with. As Murray Mandryk from the and, in the end, he did not only win early to mid-2000s by the provincial Regina Leader-Post puts it, “The only but he triumphed. Although Wall is a NDP, which is now struggling to real big tax cut has been the increase low-key politician, his leadership POLICY OPTIONS 35 NOVEMBER 2011 Daniel Béland style has convinced many in Saskatchewan that he deserves a sec- ond mandate as premier. Even if Wall had not been so suc- cessful politically, it is likely that his chances of re-election would remain high. This is true because, historical- ly, Saskatchewan voters have been patient with first-term governments, seeking stability rather than frequent political reversals. In the history of the province, created in 1905, only once did a ruling party fail to win a second majority at the polls.