POLITICS AND POLICY IN BRAD OVIN PR C E E WALL’S SASKATCHEWAN H S T Daniel Béland SASKATCHEWAN L E S Compared with the other provinces, Saskatchewan did not face a profound S E economic downturn in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial and economic P C crisis. Instead, the province and the country witnessed Saskatchewan’s economic ROVIN “success story,” which was replicated in the political realm by Premier Brad Wall’s strong popularity, both within and outside his province. Why has Wall proved so successful, from a political standpoint? What policy challenges will the next premier of Saskatchewan face? Adopting a historical perspective on Saskatchewan politics, Daniel Béland provides tentative answers to these questions.

Contrairement à d’autres provinces, la Saskatchewan n’a pas connu de ralentissement prononcé de l’activité économique au lendemain de la crise économique et financière de 2008. La province et le pays dans son entier ont été plutôt témoins de son succès économique et de sa réussite dans le domaine politique avec la popularité du premier ministre Brad Wall, tant dans sa province qu’ailleurs au pays. Pourquoi les efforts de Brad Wall ont-ils été couronnés de succès sur le plan politique ? Plus important encore, une fois que les résultats de l’élection seront connus, quels défis politiques le prochain premier ministre de la Saskatchewan devrait-il relever ? Adoptant une perspective historique, Daniel Béland formule des réponses provisoires à ces questions.

n office as premier of Saskatchewan since November Although it would be easy to cite Lingenfelter’s apparent 2007, Brad Wall has become one of the most popu- lack of charisma to explain Wall’s political success, other I lar provincial politicians of his generation. factors are more likely to account for the premier’s According to a Vision Critical & Angus Reid online poll favourable position ahead of what looks, to most observers, conducted earlier this year, for instance, 63 percent of like an easy re-election. the Saskatchewan respondents approved of the premier’s The first factor to explain Wall’s popularity is the handling of the province’s business. This flattering current strength of Saskatchewan’s economy, which has approval rating means that Wall is, by far, the most pop- more to do with natural resources and favourable inter- ular premier in the country. In early September, a Praxis national market conditions than with the policies of the Analytics survey conducted for the Saskatoon Saskatchewan Party. Saskatchewan is a province rich StarPhoenix and the Regina Leader-Post showed that with oil, natural gas, potash, uranium and agricultural Wall’s Saskatchewan Party had a 37-point lead over the resources. This diverse and imposing resource base is by provincial NDP. Considering that a provincial election far the biggest source of wealth for the sparsely populat- takes place in Saskatchewan on November 7, these were ed province. A cursory look at the main economic indi- very reassuring numbers for Wall and his party. Unless a cators suggests that the province’s economic and fiscal last-minute change in voter support takes place, Wall is situation is, at the moment, favourable. In June 2011 the nearly certain to win the fall’s electoral battle against the unemployment rate in Saskatchewan was the lowest in Saskatchewan NPD, led by former provincial cabinet the country, at a mere 4.9 percent. Despite clear chal- minister Dwain Lingenfelter. lenges related to the unstable nature of commodity The NDP has been struggling to score political points prices and revenues, the province’s public finances since Lingenfelter became opposition leader in 2008. remain favourable compared to those in other provinces. Despite his sometimes harsh attacks, he has failed to gain For the 2011-2012 fiscal year, the province should regis- ground against the younger and more popular Wall. ter a modest budget surplus of $115 million.

34 OPTIONS POLITIQUES NOVEMBRE 2011 Politics and policy in Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan

n light of these favourable eco- remain politically relevant in the of the basic personal income tax I nomic and fiscal realities, when context of a provincial “success exemption that benefits low-income trying to explain Wall’s undeniable story” the Saskatchewan Party is earners more than higher earners. political success, one could quote claiming credit for. That hardly constitutes a declaration Bill Clinton’s former adviser James Although Wall inherited sound of war on socialism.” Beyond the Carville and simply declare that “it’s public finances from the NDP era field of labour relations, it is undeni- the economy, stupid.” However, as while benefiting from comparatively able that the Wall government has often in politics, things are more favourable economic conditions, it not launched any type of overtly ide- complex than that, as other factors would be unfair to reduce his political ological and political crusade to help explain why the Saskatchewan success to these two factors. The truth erase the legacy of social democratic premier is in such a good political is that the Saskatchewan premier is a province-building in Saskatchewan.

In June 2011 the unemployment rate in Saskatchewan was he most conspicuous the lowest in the country, at a mere 4.9 percent. Despite clear T example of Wall’s cen- challenges related to the unstable nature of commodity prices trist approach to provin- cial governance is the way and revenues, the province’s public finances remain he handled the Potash favourable compared to those in other provinces. For the Corp. file, in what remains 2011-2012 fiscal year, the province should register a modest the most spectacular polit- budget surplus of $115 million. ical episode of his premier- ship. When Wall stood up position on the eve of his likely re- shrewd politician who has typically to oppose the proposed takeover of election. A key factor that his oppo- avoided bold ideological gestures to Potash Corp. by a foreign company, nents are eager to raise is that Wall adopt a seemingly moderate, centre- BHP Billiton, he adopted a populist ironically benefits from the work right agenda that seems largely in tune stance that transformed him into that was done by the NPD during its with the majority of the electorate on someone willing to publicly chal- years in office, under the leadership most issues. lenge his federal Conservative allies of Premiers Lorne Calvert (2001- Of course, the Saskatchewan to protect the alleged long-term eco- 2007) and, especially, Roy Romanow Party remains on the right of the nomic interests of Saskatchewan. (1991-2001). As former Romanow political spectrum, something espe- Although many economists and government finance minister Janice cially visible in the field of labour investment specialists criticized his MacKinnon and others have empha- relations. Since taking office, the approach, it is undeniable that, from sized, when the NDP took office in Wall government has antagonized a political standpoint, Wall’s decision 1991 after nearly a decade of Con- the powerful provincial labour to push the Harper government to servative rule under Premier Grant movement on a number of occa- block the sale of Potash Corp. to “for- Devine (1982-1991), Saskatchewan sions, over issues such as union certi- eign interests” was a political master- faced a “fiscal crisis” that pushed the fication and essential services. stroke that increased the premier’s Romanow government to take bold Beyond these issues, however, that national profile and strengthened his — and frequently unpopular — government has, under most circum- position in the province. Politically, actions like the closing of rural hos- stances, refused to adopt a radical Wall’s behaviour and discourse in the pitals to rapidly improve the budget- conservative agenda that could have 2010 Potash Corp. debate generally ary situation. In the end, the NDP alienated larger segments of the pop- silenced the NDP opposition, which succeeded in balancing the provin- ulation. For example, Wall has not could hardly attack a premier who cial budget. even discussed the possible large- claimed to defend Saskatchewan Moreover, we should keep in scale privatization of the province’s against “foreign interests.” mind that the Wall government has Crown corporations, in large part a Regardless of the policy sound- maintained central economic policy legacy of previous NDP govern- ness of Wall’s approach to the Potash decisions like the cuts in business ments. Interestingly, when Wall file, this episode represented the taxes and the new royalty structure acted like a genuine conservative most striking political success of the for potash made during the Calvert and embraced a comprehensive tax- ruling Saskatchewan Party. Through years. Today, Saskatchewan and the cut agenda, he did so in a way that this episode, Wall found a way to Wall government benefit from the the provincial NDP could not argue convince the public to fight with him policy choices made in the 1990s and with. As Murray Mandryk from the and, in the end, he did not only win early to mid-2000s by the provincial Regina Leader-Post puts it, “The only but he triumphed. Although Wall is a NDP, which is now struggling to real big tax cut has been the increase low-key politician, his leadership

POLICY OPTIONS 35 NOVEMBER 2011 Daniel Béland

style has convinced many in Saskatchewan that he deserves a sec- ond mandate as premier. Even if Wall had not been so suc- cessful politically, it is likely that his chances of re-election would remain high. This is true because, historical- ly, Saskatchewan voters have been patient with first-term governments, seeking stability rather than frequent political reversals. In the history of the province, created in 1905, only once did a ruling party fail to win a second majority at the polls. That was in 1934, when the Saskatchewan Conservatives, elected months before the offset of the Great Depression, were wiped off the map by a massive Liberal victory. Thus, outside the unique context of the Great Depression, Saskatchewan voters have always given a “second chance” to the party in power, even when its first mandate was lacklustre. For instance, this was the case of the first Devine government in the 1980s, which narrowly secured a second mandate in 1986.

imultaneously, the political cul- S ture in Saskatchewan is very dif- ferent than in Alberta, where the same party has been in power since 1971. Voters in Saskatchewan gener- ally prefer stability over radical change but, at least since the retire- ment of Tommy Douglas in 1961, they have not developed the habit of easily electing the same party over and over again. For instance, although the NDP stayed in power from 1991 to 2007, it faced strong electoral challenges during most of that period and it even had to satisfy itself with a minority government in the aftermath of the 1999 provincial election. Four years later, in 2003, Lorne Calvert’s NDP won the next provincial election largely because it was successful in framing the Saskatchewan Party as a radical right- wing formation seeking to privatize PMO Photo Crown corporations, among other Premier Brad Wall and Prime Minister Stephen Harper at the Diefenbaker Centre in things. This is probably why Premier Saskatoon in September 2010. Wall’s opposition to the BHP Billiton takeover of Potash Wall has explicitly rejected Crown Corporation meant that it was politically dead on arrival in Ottawa.

36 OPTIONS POLITIQUES NOVEMBRE 2011 Politics and policy in Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan privatization and why he has major policy challenges, even if the mandate, would be well-advised to embraced a more centrist set of provincial economic climate accelerate the talks with Manitoba policies than some political com- remains favourable. First, although over the possibility of buying hydro mentators had expected. Overall, unemployment is comparatively low power from that province. This Saskatchewan is a province that, in in Saskatchewan, poverty remains a would be the best way to reduce contrast with Alberta, has long been key issue. This is especially true Saskatchewan’s heavy reliance on characterized by a competitive elec- where the large Aboriginal popula- coal while responding to its growing toral system and a pattern of ruling tion is concerned. Representing electricity needs. party alternance, a reality that may about 15 percent of the province’s give comfort to disenchanted NDP population, Aboriginal people inally, because Saskatchewan’s supporters. account for more than 25 percent of F population is now growing fast To rebuild itself, the NDP, which children aged under 15. Considering (by more than 1.5 percent last year), is facing some sort of identity crisis, that, a key challenge for all levels of massive investments in infrastruc- will need more than a younger and government is to work together in ture are needed. These investments more charismatic leader. At the poli- order to improve the educational should include a push to build more cy level, it needs to distinguish itself opportunities and the living condi- rental properties in Saskatoon and from the Saskatchewan Party while tions of Aboriginal peoples in Regina, a city that has now the low- staying relatively close to the politi- Saskatchewan. Second, as in the est vacancy rate in Canada. If the cal centre. In light of the cur- province wants to attract rent global economic Although Wall inherited sound more immigrants as well as instability and of the “boom” public finances from the NDP era workers from other provinces and “bust” logic that charac- while benefiting from comparatively in order to avoid labour short- terizes resource economies ages in key industries, it needs like Saskatchewan’s, the sce- favourable economic conditions, it to make sure these people can nario of strong economic would be unfair to reduce his find a relatively affordable downturn is always possible. political success to these two place to live. But the NDP cannot count on factors. The truth is that the This partial list of chal- outside economic forces to lenges features some issues find its way back to power or, Saskatchewan premier is a shrewd that are typically associated at least, electoral competitive- politician who has typically avoided with the left rather than the ness. For example, how will bold ideological gestures to adopt a right but this might not be a the NDP find support outside seemingly moderate, centre-right problem for Brad Wall, who the two larger cities (Regina has shown more pragmatism and Saskatoon), in small agenda that seems largely in tune than some had anticipated in towns and rural areas where with the majority of the electorate his role of premier. If he is re- the party has lost a lot of on most issues. elected on November 7, will ground over the years? How he be able to address these can the NDP make a case that it is in other provinces, controlling health challenges? The answer to this ques- a better position than the care spending while improving tion should help determine not only Saskatchewan Party to create a access to care is a daunting chal- the future of Wall and his party but strong economy while making sure lenge, especially for the also the future of a province that that all of the province’s 1 million Saskatchewan Party, which is poten- needs to seriously invest in its long- inhabitants benefit from current tially vulnerable to political attacks term future instead of simply enjoy- growth? The NDP needs to rethink from the left on this issue. Third, ing the current prosperity, which itself before it can truly challenge environmental issues should not be may not last, especially considering Wall’s political dominance. neglected, as they represent a major the volatile global economic context. Saskatchewan, like any other substantive and public relations province, needs a lively and compet- challenge for the province. Daniel Béland is Canada Research Chair itive democratic life, something that Regarding the widely debated issue in Public Policy at the Johnson-Shoyama seems hard to imagine without a of electricity, supply, for instance, Graduate School of Public Policy. He has strong provincial NDP. the next Saskatchewan government, published eight books and 60 peer- instead of toying with the contro- reviewed articles on issues such as health s for the next Saskatchewan versial idea of building a nuclear care, pension reform, fiscal federalism A government formed after the power plant in the province as and the role of ideas in policy-making. November 7 election, it will face Premier Wall did during his first www.danielbeland.org

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