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Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

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Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes May 15, 2017 By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena Guide: The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS. For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio. Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report. Summary Period: Monday May 8 to Friday May 12, 2017 Total Upgrades: 6 Total Downgrades: 24 Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 42.24%; Hold 43.12%; Sell 14.64% Another week, another tsunami of downgrades for ASX-listed stocks offset by a handful of upgrades only. Investors wondering as to why the domestic share market has not convincingly put in a sprint towards 6000 need not look any further. Among the few to receive a fresh Buy recommendation for the week ending Friday, 12th May 2017 are junior gold producer Saracen Mineral, funds manager Henderson Group and, believe it or not, CommBank. FNArena registered no less than 26 downgrades for the week, against six only upgrades. Those receiving downgrades include AGL Energy, BT Investment Management, Crown Resorts, CSR, Incitec Pivot (2x), Myer, REA Group (3x), Westpac (2x), as well as National AustraliaFNArena Bank and, yes, CommBank. BT Investment Management tops the table for positive revision to price targets with a gain of 10%, followed by Boral (+5%) and OceanaGold (+3.4%). On the flipside we find JB Hi-Fi suffering the biggest cuts (-4%), followed by Westpac (-2.8%) and Healthscope (-1.3%). The table for positive amendments to profit forecasts shows quite some fireworks. Xero The table for positive amendments to profit forecasts shows quite some fireworks. Xero leads the pack with a gain of 55%, beating Crown Resorts (+30%) and CSR (+9.5%). Suffering the largest reduction for the week is Ardent Leisure (-72%), followed by two miners with operational set-backs, Newcrest Mining (-5%) and South32 (-5%), and Aconex (-4%). All in all it is difficult not to pay attention to the large bias towards downgrades this month, including the banking sector. Clearly, the news cycle has turned. At least, for now. Upgrade AVEO GROUP ((AOG)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0 Ord Minnett is more positive about the company's prospects after an investor briefing. Earnings forecasts are lifted because of higher assumed development completions.The broker now has greater confidence in delivery and increased margins. Ord Minnett assumes 10.7% growth in earnings per share in FY17 and 8.4% for FY18. Rating is raised to Accumulate from Hold. Target rises to $3.70 from $3.40. COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA ((CBA)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/3 Cash earnings for the March quarter tracked in line with Morgans second half expectations. Income was a little softer than expected and credit impairment charges a little better than expected. The broker upgrades to Add from Hold as a result of recent share price weakness. Cash earnings forecasts are reduced by -0.7% and -0.5% for FY17 and FY18 respectively.Target is lowered to $87.50 from $88.00. See also CBA downgrade. HENDERSON GROUP PLC. ((HGG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/0 Post shareholder approval of Henderson's merger with Janus, UBS has swapped analysts and the rating has been upgraded to Buy on the basis it is a transformational deal, offering cost synergies and a performance fee rebound. Funds flow targets appear ambitious but UBS does not think the market is pricing in any growth. Target rises to 275p from 240p. INVESTA OFFICE FUND ((IOF)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/2 The company has revalued its portfolio, booking a $0.30 uplift to net tangible assets to $4.80 a share. The board has also endorsed the potential joint-venture acquisition of the property group platform in the absence of a formal cash offer from Cromwell ((CMW)). FNArena Ord Minnett observes the revised NTA cuts through the proposed indicative cash offer price of $4.75 a share. The broker suspects the board is holding out for $5 a share, reflecting more bullish investor sentiment in recent weeks. Ord Minnett raises its recommendation to Hold from Lighten and the target to $5.00 from $4.75. OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION ((OGC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0 UBS believes the appointment of a new mining minister in the Philippines has materially reduced the risk of the suspension order on Didipio from being enforced. This should allow the market to re-focus on growth opportunities at Haile and at NZ operations. The broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is raised to $4.35 from $3.41. SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SAR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0 Macquarie reviews production forecasts in the light of recent exploration successes. The broker now expects production to exceed 300,000 ounces per annum over the next five years. The broker believes mid-grade, high-tonnage, shallow underground mines can be highly profitable to run. The success at Karari underpins this mode of operation for the company. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $1.30 from $1.00. Downgrade AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/1 Macquarie believes the rapidly falling price of renewables is creating a new threat in the market, namely that the Renewable Energy Certificates market is likely to be structurally oversupplied from FY22. Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Whilst the company is becoming light on capital needs, there are challenges such as retail pricing reviews, five-minute pricing and the potential REC price collapse, as well as some softening of spot electricity prices. While none of these affect the near term they undermine the scope of earnings growth and the terminal value of the business, in the broker's opinion. Target is reduced to $25.00 from $25.81. ASALEO CARE LIMITED ((AHY)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/1/1 Citi has downgraded to Sell from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $1.50. The analysts do not believe investors are sufficiently appreciating the risks and challenges that lay ahead for the company. The analysts are anticipating weak results ahead and this can potentially lead to a derating for the shares. Following a strong rally, the shares are now deemed expensive. The dividendFNArena outlook remains stable. BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((BTT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/5/0 First half results beat Macquarie's forecasts but were in line with expectations after adjusting for one-off items. The company's key operating metrics are meeting the broker's fund manager investment criteria. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following recent share price performance. The stock is trading at more than 20x FY17 and FY18 earnings forecasts and is the highest-rated fund manager under the broker's coverage. The downgrade comes despite the broker's acknowledgement of the company's capacity and demonstrated ability to deliver net inflows. Target is reduced to $11.70 from $11.92. COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA ((CBA)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/3 The March quarter trading result was short of Macquarie's expectations and, similar to peers, the improving capital position and organic capital generation were the key positives. Should underlying results remain under pressure, the broker envisages risk to the bank's ability to maintain its premium over the medium term. Separately, Macquarie notes the Commonwealth budget has put further pressure on the bank earnings outlook and the proposed bank levy will take -4-5% off earnings. The broker has become increasingly cautious about the sector in recent months. The main near-term upside risk is that the changes announced in the budget are watered down, while the longer-term theme underpinning the broker's outlook remains in place. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $81 from $85. See also CBA upgrade. CSR LIMITED ((CSR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/2 Citi downgrades to Sell from Neutral as concerns on housing combine with FY17 margin weakness, the analysts explain. Price target drops to $4.10 from $4.32. The analysts do think there will be one more hurrah, with FY18 projected to be peak earnings year for CSR. As housing approvals fall, compression of peak FY18 earnings should follow, predict the analysts. CROWN RESORTS LIMITED ((CWN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/4/0 Crown has outperformed the index by 21% since posting its result in Feb, which revealed cost reductions and a more simplified business structure focused on domestic assets. The Melbourne and Brisbane casinos are now passed their capex peaks, UBS notes. Sydney capex is next, and there is debt to repay, so little likelihood of capital management. UBS warns of the prospect of weaker gaming floor trends and uncertainty with regard VIPs. With the stock now trading on a five-year high relative PE, the broker downgrades to Neutral. Target falls to $13.19 from $13.39.
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