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Investing in Financials

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Investing in Financials BARON F I R S T Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 6 INSIGHT Investing in Financials Michael Baron, VP, Research Analyst; Josh Saltman, VP, Research Analyst; Jose Barria, Research Analyst The Financials sector has lagged significantly since the 2007-08 financial Baron has a long and successful history of utilizing its bottom-up, crisis. As of March 31, 2016, the category was down 14% since its research-driven, long-term investment approach in the Financials October 9, 2007 peak, compared with the broader market as measured sector. As with all of our investments, Baron looks for financial by the Russell 3000 Index, which increased 59%. Many financial companies that have significant long-term growth opportunities, companies experienced subdued profitability and growth in the sustainable competitive advantages, and strong management teams, aftermath of the crisis as a result of heightened regulation, fines, and at an attractive valuation. We believe this investment style and the historically low interest rates. Most recently, credit risk in the energy sector’s relative value have allowed us to discover many potentially space has weighed on the sector. The decreasing likelihood of near-term successful investments in Financials. U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes has not helped either. Opportunities in Banks and Insurance While their stock prices lag, financial company fundamentals and the economy continue to improve. Most financial institutions have paid Although traditional banks and insurance companies comprise a large back government loans and some are increasing share buybacks and weight in the Financials index, Baron tends not to invest in these dividend payments, reflecting greater financial soundness and stability. businesses because they don’t typically meet our investment criteria. Balance sheets of consumers and companies are in significantly better Banks and insurers are generally commoditized, cyclical, asset- shape than in 2008. Corporate cash balances are high, and household intensive businesses with limited growth potential. We have also debt service as a percentage of disposable income has fallen. Reduced found that the fair values of their assets and liabilities may deviate consumer debt loads lower the risk of defaults and provides room to add significantly from what’s shown on their balance sheets due to to debt if desired. While holding to the status quo for the moment, the inherently subjective estimates of future losses. Fed still appears to want to move rates to a more “normal” level, However, some banks and insurers are able to flourish through although timing of future rate hikes is uncertain. differentiation, management expertise, and smart strategic execution. We think now is the perfect time to take a closer look at the To discover these firms, we look for strong management teams who Financials sector. While valuations for the broader market are at or have proven to be good stewards of capital and seek out growth slightly above their long-term average, financial stocks continue to opportunities in a prudent and conservative fashion. trade at a discount to long-term average valuations. As seen in the We own Arch Capital Group Ltd., a specialty insurance and chart below, Financials is the least expensive sector in terms of price reinsurance company run by an experienced management team with to earnings ratio. a successful track record across several insurance cycles. Arch excels Sector-Level Forward 12-Month P/E Ratios at underwriting specialized property & casualty policies and can shift As of April 1, 2016 its business mix to target the most profitable areas. The company has 65.0 a unique compensation system for its underwriters that rewards long- term profitability rather than short-term premium growth. 22.5 Management has demonstrated excellent underwriting discipline and 20.0 has returned excess capital to shareholders during soft pricing cycles, 17.5 allowing Arch to maintain industry-leading returns on equity. Its stock 15.0 has doubled in the last five years. 12.5 We’re also invested in First Republic Bank, which provides banking 10.0 and wealth management services to affluent customers in urban, 7.5 coastal markets across the U.S. First Republic was founded 30 years ago, acquired in 2007 by Merrill Lynch (which subsequently merged 5.0 with Bank of America), and spun off as a separate company again in care Info. Disc. 2010. First Republic differentiates itself through its Health Energy Staples Utilities Services Telecom S&P 500 Materials Financials Consumer Consumer Industrials singular focus on providing exceptional customer Technology Fwd 12M P/E 62.5 21.1 18.1 17.6 17.3 16.3 16.1 16.1 14.9 14.0 12.4 service, resulting in high customer loyalty and Source: FactSet superior growth. The bank is well-capitalized and is led by an experienced management team that has demonstrated continue winning share in its core business. Additionally, the Investor superior underwriting performance over many years. First Republic’s Services division has broadened its offerings to include investment stock has risen over 160% since its IPO in 2010 as its high-touch management and advice. Its recently released product, Schwab business model and affluent customer base have driven strong Intelligent Portfolio, manages a client’s assets for no additional cost by market share gains. utilizing proprietary product and the Schwab bank. We believe this complimentary service will be difficult for rivals to match and will Servicing Individual Investors create sticky and valuable customer relationships. As the chart below demonstrates, over the past 30 years, most Primerica, Inc. also serves a growing need for financial planning in an employers have shifted from defined benefit pensions to 401(k)s, and underserved customer segment. The company provides term life industry observers expect this migration to continue. We believe this insurance and third-party investment products to middle income shift in retirement saving and investing responsibility from the employer households that are often ignored by other financial companies. to the employee has created opportunities for companies providing Primerica has a multi-level sales model that positions the company to individual investors with advice on managing their retirement accounts. reach middle income investors in a cost-efficient manner and help them set and achieve their financial goals. Retirements Asset - U.S. We have also invested in select asset managers that are providing a differentiated product, have competitively advantaged distribution $7 $7.2T channels, and have a strong brand that we believe can weather IRAs turbulent markets. The Carlyle Group and Oaktree Capital Group, $6 $5.3T LLC participate in the faster growing alternative management sector, $5 401(k)- type plans and both firms continue to win market share due to their track records $4 and excellent customer service. Artisan Partners Asset Management $3.1T Inc. has assembled a lineup of top traditional managers who can $3 traditional Trillions pensions provide various investment products under a single umbrella. $2 $1 Trends in Financial Technology $0 Powerful secular trends are driving growth in financial technology. A 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 shift from cash to electronic payments, the increasing use of data and IRAs 401(K)-type plans traditional pensions analytics, the electronification of capital markets – these trends and Source: dol.gov others are opening the door to what we think are attractive opportunities for investors with an in-depth understanding of the Several of the companies we own service the growing need for shifting technological and regulatory landscapes. investment advice among individual investors. Financial Engines, Inc. is an advisory service for employees of participating employer retirement plans. While it is the significant market leader, it still has just $115 billion in 401(k) assets under management in a highly fragmented market. Its relationships with plan record keepers provide access to over $3 trillion in assets and its products are applicable to the 80 vast majority of these accounts. We think Financial Engines has a long 70 runway of growth as more plan sponsors provide their employees with Cash access to its products, individual investors utilize its services, and new 60 Debit Cards channels of distribution are opened beyond the retirement space. 50 Credit Cards We are also investors in The Charles Schwab Corp., a premier discount 40 brokerage firm offering securities brokerage and other financial services ACH 30 to individual investors and independent financial advisors. We have Billions Of Transactions owned this company since 1992, when the stock was trading at a split 20 Prepaid Cards adjusted price of around $1 per share. Today, it trades at more than 30 10 times that amount. Despite this impressive growth, we feel the Checks company still has many opportunities ahead. Management’s emphasis — on earning customer trust has made it, in our view, a sterling brand. We 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Source: Federal Reserve, Bl Intelligence believe its premium brand and superior services will allow Schwab to As the chart on the previous page demonstrates, payments are companies that benefit from the growth of electronic trading include increasingly shifting from cash and checks to cards and digital Virtu Financial, Inc., a leading electronic market-maker, and CME payments. We’re invested in Visa, Inc. and MasterCard, Inc., two of Group, Inc., operator of the world’s largest and most diversified the world’s largest payment networks. Both companies have financial exchanges for trading derivatives. We think all of these dominant positions in the U.S., as well as significant exposure to companies will benefit from growth in trading volumes during periods international markets, where consumer spending and the adoption of higher market volatility as well as an eventual normalization of rate of electronic payments are rising quickly. These technology-based interest rates. businesses don’t take credit risk but instead partner with issuing banks and function like toll collectors for global consumption spending.
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