Migration Policy in the Great Recession by Mike Nicholson and Pia Orrenius

VOL. 5, NO. 5 JUNE 2010 EconomicLetter

Insights from the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS

Manning the Gates: Migration Policy in the Great Recession by Mike Nicholson and Pia Orrenius

During the downturn, The Great Recession of 2008–09 brought steep declines in world out-

advanced economies put, employment and trade—all told, the worst falloff of global economic activ-

as well as developing ity since the Great Depression. During the downturn, advanced economies from

countries adopted Australia and Western Europe to developing countries such as Thailand and Ka-

policies ranging from zakhstan adopted policies ranging from keeping new migrants out to encourag- keeping new migrants ing resident migrants to leave.

out to encouraging The most common policy changes included tightening numerical

resident migrants limits or imposing categorical limits on immigrant inflows, paring back lists

to leave. of shortage occupations and changing eligible occupations for temporary mi-

grants.

Nations also limited the opportunities for migrants to adjust their le-

gal status or renew their work permits. They tightened employers’ advertising requirements, or labor market tests, to Annual inflows to Ireland rose did not accelerate in the 2000s. Green give native-born workers an edge over sharply during this time as well—from card issuances averaged about 1 mil- their foreign-born competitors. Many 42,000 in 2000 to 89,000 in 2007. lion per year, the same as in the 1990s, countries also boosted immigration en- The foreign share of the population and the foreign-born population share forcement, stepping up efforts to round increased from 3.3 to 10.5 percent. rose modestly from 11.1 percent in up unauthorized immigrants and pros- Ireland was among the three EU coun- 2000 to 12.5 percent in 2008, a slower ecute their employers. tries to allow migration from the eight rate of increase than in the prior Through these initiatives, lawmak- Eastern and Central European nations decade. ers sought to help domestic workers by that joined the bloc in 2004, often The expansion that spurred immi- limiting foreign competition during a referred to as the “accession eight,” gration throughout much of Europe severe economic downturn. While the or A8.2 Irish immigrants came mostly came to an abrupt end with the intent of these measures is clear, their from Poland. Ireland also took in a 2008 financial crisis and slowdown bite is somewhat uncertain. Recessions significant number of immigrants from in world economic growth. The next diminish employment opportunities, countries outside the EU, including the year, world output contracted 0.6 per- so cross-border labor flows decline on U.S., India and China. cent, and the volume of global trade their own accord, reducing competition U.K. migration also rose in the declined 10.7 percent.3 Unemployment for jobs from foreigners. period leading up to the recession, rates skyrocketed in many countries, In fact, the immigration backlash albeit to a lesser extent since the U.K. particularly in those that had experi- could have its greatest effect after has long been a country of immigra- enced housing booms, such as Spain, the recession ends, when a growing tion. Inflows increased from 364,000 in the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland (Chart demand for labor could run headlong 2000 to 527,000 in 2007. The foreign 1). into labor market restrictions that share of the population edged up from Between December 2007 and remain in place. These could impede 4.5 percent in 2001 to 6 percent in December 2009, unemployment rates countries’ ability to recruit workers in 2007. As in the case of Ireland, many rose from 5 percent to 10 percent in sectors vital to their recovery and long- of these new immigrants came from the U.S., from 8.8 percent to 19 per- run economic growth. the A8 countries. cent in Spain and from 4.8 percent to In contrast to the new destination 13 percent in Ireland. The EU area as From Economic Boom to Bust countries of Europe, U.S. immigration a whole experienced a milder rise in In the years leading up to the Great Recession, economic expansion and housing booms in countries Chart 1 such as Spain, Italy and Ireland led to unprecedented levels of immigration Unemployment Rates Rise During the Great Recession in and transformed what had tradition- Many Popular Destination Countries ally been sending countries into prime destinations for migrants from within Index, January 2007 = 100* the European Union (EU) and around 350 the world.1 Ireland U.S. EU From 2000 to 2007, Spain was 300 Spain U.K. Australia Europe’s leading destination for 13.0 migrants by a large margin. Immigrant 250 inflows averaged 642,000 per year, and 19.0 the number of foreigners rose from 10.0 less than 1 million to nearly 5 mil- 200 lion. The foreign share of the Spanish population rose from 2 percent to 10.4 150 7.7 percent over this period. 9.4 5.5 Italian immigration also skyrock- 100 eted, with flows averaging 338,000

newcomers a year between 2000 and 50 2007, up from only about 50,000 in the 2007 2008 2009

late 1990s. The foreign share of Italy’s * Seasonally adjusted.

population more than doubled, rising SOURCES: Eurostat; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Australian Bureau of Statistics. from 2.2 to 5 percent.

EconomicLetter 2 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS EconomicLetter unemployment—from 6.9 percent to notably Ireland, Spain and the U.K. 9.4 percent. The most frequent policy approach emphasized controlling worker inflows Migration Policy Responses from outside the EU. The Great Recession caused great In 2009, Ireland stopped issuing anxiety. Many governments, including work permits to foreigners for low- in the U.S., passed stimulus packages paid occupations in addition to house- aimed at promoting consumption and hold workers and truck drivers. Spain job growth through tax rebates, infra- restricted the recruitment of certain Countries responded to structure projects and expanded social categories of guest workers in 2008 benefits. In addition, governments and 2009.6 rising unemployment sought to help individuals directly The U.K. upped salary and edu- with job-creation programs and by cation requirements for high-skilled rates with policies extending assistance to unemployed workers from outside the EU and sus- workers. pended recruitment of low-skilled non- designed to limit Countries also adopted protec- EU workers in 2009. Salary require- tionist trade and immigration policies. ments were tightened further in early foreign-born workers’ Protectionist trade policies often back- 2010.7 fire when trading partners respond Like the U.S., these countries also access to labor with similar measures. Restrictive adopted a number of policies target- immigration policies are typically not ing employers. Ireland extended its markets. subject to the same tit for tat as trade, labor market tests, requiring prospec- but reduced migration hurts migrants tive employers to advertise jobs for and poor sending countries, which eight weeks within the EU prior to often rely on remittances. Measures seeking workers from outside the targeting resident migrants can slow bloc. Furthermore, individuals renew- their economic progress and hamper ing work permits are now subject integration. to labor market tests that weren’t in Countries responded to rising force before the crisis.8 The U.K. also unemployment rates with policies doubled the job advertising period for designed to limit foreign-born work- employers seeking certain categories ers’ access to labor markets. Table 1 of skilled workers from outside the summarizes major policy changes in EU. And Spain curtailed labor market countries around the world from 2008 test exemptions for skilled “shortage” to the present. workers.9 In the U.S., the Troubled Asset These countries also adopted a Relief Program (TARP), implemented variety of measures directed toward in 2008, discouraged banks and foreigners residing within their bor- financial institutions receiving fed- ders, legally and illegally. Ireland tight- eral bailout funds from hiring foreign ened requirements for work permit workers through the H-1B program renewals and stands by naturalization for high-skilled specialty workers. In prerequisites, which result in rejec- February 2010, an executive order tion of nearly half the applicants for imposed stricter rules for employers Irish citizenship.10 The U.K. Parliament using foreign-born farmworkers.4 Since voted in July 2009 to toughen citizen- May 2009, U.S. rules also require that ship requirements for status adjusters, government contractors run all new effective in 2011.11 employees through E-Verify, a feder- Seeking to curtail illegal immigra- ally operated electronic program that tion, Ireland passed new measures checks for valid Social Security num- limiting unauthorized migrants’ access bers that match workers’ names.5 to public services, and the U.K. raised Measures aiming to protect native fines for employers of unauthorized workers were also taken in other migrants.12 A number of other coun- countries hit hard by the recession— tries have also stepped up immigration

EconomicLetter FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS 3 EconomicLetter enforcement. Italy has criminalized unlawful presence, authorized citizen Table 1 patrols to combat illegal migration and barred illegal migrants’ access to public Select Migration Policy Changes by Country services.13 France has launched several high profile raids, and Greek police Policy Changes drew international attention when Cut intake of skilled permanent migrants 14 percent for the 2009–10 fis- they bulldozed a migrant camp near cal year. Raised skilled migrants’ salary requirements. Redesigned critical the city of Patras. Israel created a new Australia skills list for permanent migrants to emphasize health, engineering and IT task force to combat illegal migration. occupations while removing many others. Required new language tests for foreign workers in certain occupations. A number of popular destinations for In 2008, voted to keep restrictions on accession eight (A8) country workers Asian migrants, notably Malaysia and Austria from Eastern and Central Europe in place through 2011. Singapore, have cracked down on ille- In 2008, voted to keep restrictions on A8 workers from Eastern and Central gal migration as well. Belgium Europe in place through 2011. Perhaps the most innovative policies entailed creating incentives Implemented return program in February 2009. Government pays €500 and Czech airfare home for foreign workers. About 2,000 migrants participated in the for foreign workers to return to their Republic first phase of the program, which concluded in July 2009. Participants must home countries. Spain launched the give up Czech documents. largest such program in November In 2008, voted to keep restrictions on A8 workers from Eastern and Central 2008, seeking to encourage unem- Denmark Europe in place through 2011. In 2009, increased financial incentives for ployed migrants’ departure by paying migrants to return home. unemployment benefits in two lump In July 2009, launched program to encourage illegal migrants in Calais to return home. Government pays plane fare and €2,000, plus resettlement as- sums—one given in Spain and the France sistance. Program implemented jointly with the U.K. Also launched several other delivered upon returning home. high-profile immigration raids in 2009. The Spanish government also paid for In 2008, voted to keep restrictions on A8 workers from Eastern and Central Germany transportation back home. The pro- Europe in place through 2011. gram bars participating migrants from Stepped up enforcement. Police bulldozed large migrant camp in Patras 14 Greece returning to Spain for three years. in 2009. The U.K. and France adopted a similar program to encourage unau- India In 2009, implemented new numerical quotas on hiring foreign workers. thorized migrants residing in camps in In 2009, stopped issuing new work permits to non-EU citizens for jobs with Calais, a French port on the English a salary under €30,000. Also stopped issuing work permits to household Channel, to return home.15 The Czech workers and truck drivers. Labor market tests extended; employers now Republic and Japan have launched Ireland must advertise for eight weeks within the EU before seeking non-EU work- programs giving foreigners greater ers. Individuals renewing work permits now subject to labor market tests. New rules for dependents seeking jobs. Restricted illegal migrants’ access incentives to return home and impos- to public services. ing restrictions on their reentry. Created task force in 2009 to crack down on illegal migrants. Stiffer penal- Israel Denmark, which has had a program ties for employers hiring illegal aliens put in place in 2010. operating for several years, has upped Suspended nonseasonal, non-EU worker entries in 2009 after lowering financial incentives for migrants to them and accepting applications only from 2008 backlogs. Limited 2008 head back to their countries of origin.16 entries primarily to household workers. Issuance of most categories of residence permits to new immigrants now contingent on extent of integra- To date, the Spanish and Czech Italy tion, passing language tests. Income and eligibility requirements for family programs have attracted fewer par- reunification strengthened in 2008. Unlawful presence criminalized in 2009. ticipants than was initially projected. Approved unarmed citizen migration enforcement patrols. Access to public For example, Spain estimated that services blocked for illegal migrants. more than 100,000 migrants would Launched return program in April 2009 to encourage the departure of Latin return home under its program, but Japan Americans of Japanese descent. Pay for airfare plus a departure bonus. it received only about 8,700 applica- Reentry limited. About 11,000 approved as of October. 17 Imposed migration moratorium on less-skilled workers in 2009. Less-skilled- tions. This outcome shouldn’t be Kazakhstan surprising. For most migrants, a life- worker quotas remain low for 2010. Labor market tests strengthened. time income in Spain exceeds the Stopped issuing work permits for most manufacturing and service jobs in two lump-sum benefit payments and Malaysia 2009. Permits for less-skilled foreign workers not renewed in 2009. Cut duration of short-term work permits. Employers must terminate foreign value of the ticket home. Their home countries don’t typically offer much

EconomicLetter 4 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS EconomicLetter employment or investment opportu- Table 1 nity. What’s more, after migrants have lived in a new country for a substantial Select Migration Policy Changes by Country (cont.) period, they begin to integrate and are reluctant to leave. As a general rule, Policy Changes voluntary return programs aren’t very Malaysia workers first. Higher levy on employers bringing in foreign workers was ap- effective at getting settled migrants to (cont.) proved in 2010. New crackdown on illegal migrants launched in February 2010. depart. Reduced duration of permits for lower-skilled workers. Removed occupa- New tions from skill shortage lists in the 2008–09 fiscal year. Harder to get work Zealand Recession’s Impact on Migration permits renewed. Under normal circumstances, Banned certain categories of foreign workers in 2008; some bans were lifted immigration policy supports more Oman in 2009 and 2010; stepping up immigration enforcement; deporting thousands of Asian migrants. immigration in good economic times and less in bad times. During the Portugal Cut 2009 immigration targets for non-EU workers by half. 1990s high-tech boom, for instance, Reduced work permit quotas by half in 2009. Further cuts occurred in 2010. Em- U.S. policy accommodated the rise in Russia ployers seeking to hire foreign workers now face greater bureaucratic hurdles. demand for IT workers. In 2000, the Saudi American Competitiveness in the 21st Stopped issuing work permits to Bangladeshi workers in certain sectors in 2008. Arabia Century Act temporarily tripled the Implemented policy requiring employers to terminate foreign workers prior to cap on H-1B visas and eased H-1B Singapore native-born workers. Levies on employers of foreign workers increased in 2010. employment restrictions permanently. Reduced total foreign-worker permit quotas under the Employment Permit In hard times, labor protectionism South System from 100,000 to 34,000 in March 2009. Quotas reduced further to has limited impact because migration Korea 24,000 in 2010. Recruitment under this system also halted temporarily in naturally falls off. An extreme example early 2009. was the Great Depression, when dete- Restricted recruitment of guest workers via the “contingente” anonymous riorating economic conditions led to recruitment system in 2008–09. Curtailed exemptions from labor market test for “shortage” workers. Made it harder for individuals with residence permits an 85 percent decline in the immigrant Spain to bring relatives to Spain. Program to encourage return of unemployed im- inflow between 1930 and 1932.18 migrants launched in November 2008: airfare paid, unemployment benefits During the Great Recession, ris- paid in two lump-sum payments, migrant barred from returning to Spain for ing unemployment rates across many three years. About 8,700 approved as of November. advanced economies have deterred Cut work permit quotas by half in 2010 for non-EU citizens (although some Switzerland would-be migrants, leading to steep additional allotments made in May 2010 to meet labor demand rise). declines in flows along the major glob- Cut permits for less-skilled workers in 2009. Limited foreign workers to a al migration corridors. The falloff in Taiwan maximum of 20 percent of a manufacturer’s workforce, with exact limits varying by industry. migration has been particularly notice- able in those countries where a large Stopped issuing new work permits in 2009. Curtailed renewals of work per- Thailand mits. Stepped up immigration enforcement. proportion of foreign workers were employed in the hard-hit, business- Imposed stricter education and salary requirements on high-skilled non-EU guest workers (Tier 1). Raised minimum salaries for Tier 2 skilled workers. cycle-sensitive construction sector. Suspended recruiting of less-skilled workers (Tier 3). Strengthened labor Within the EU, where international market test for skilled migrants (Tier 2). Employers must advertise for four labor migration is unrestricted, we can United weeks rather than two weeks. New law approved in July 2009 will extend safely say that any declines have been Kingdom foreigners’ required residency period in U.K. prior to earning citizenship, effective in 2011. Joined with France in 2009 to encourage illegal migrants in due to market factors, not restrictions Calais, France, to return home: pays plane fare and €2,000 plus resettlement imposed by lawmakers. Immigrant assistance. Higher fines instituted for employers of illegal migrants. New inflows into Ireland from recent acces- language tests for many foreign workers. sion countries in Eastern and Central Imposed tougher H-1B hiring rules on recipients of TARP funds. Required Europe—by far Ireland’s largest source documented recruitment, higher wages and tougher safety standards for of foreign labor—fell by 74 percent United employers seeking foreign farmworkers under the H-2A program. New H-2A 19 States rules also allowed for longer referral periods for U.S. workers and created an from 2007 to 2009. Irish social securi- electronic job registry. A number of states passed laws targeting unauthor- ty registrations (Personal Public Service ized immigrants, most notably Arizona and Oklahoma. numbers) from foreign nationals fell 63 SOURCES: Return migration program statistics from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), www.migrationinformation. percent from 2007 to 2009, further evi- org/Feature/display.cfm?ID=749. Other information from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; MPI; FRAGOMEN; University of California, Davis’ Migration News; and national immigration bureaus. For specific sources, see dence of a drastic slowing of Ireland’s the text or contact the authors. worker inflows.20

EconomicLetter FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS 5 EconomicLetter The number of registered foreign rary, skilled-worker visas also fell in workers in Spain fell in 2008, the last a number of other countries, such as available year of data.21 Spain saw a Australia (Chart 2). two-thirds decline in the inflow of Some signs of stabilization immigrants from Romania, its largest appeared in late 2009 as the world provider of foreign workers in recent economy improved. For example, years.22 Inflows into the U.K. from applications to Australia’s temporary the A8 countries declined 21 percent Subclass 457 skilled visa program, The recent recession in 2008.23 Applications for the U.K’s similar to the H-1B program, and the Worker Registration Scheme, which U.K.’s Worker Registration Scheme brought with it covers migrants from countries that increased over the second half of the joined the EU in 2004, fell 32 percent year. More recent Australian data show broad-based from 2008 to 2009.24 that 2010 applications for Subclass Outside the EU, the decline 457 visas are up significantly over last declines in in applications for work permits or year’s levels.26 employment-based visas suggests that Undocumented migration illegal immigration. fewer people sought work abroad dur- falls. Illegal migration is highly cor- ing the recession. In the U.S., appli- related with the business cycle—often cations for H-1B temporary skilled- more so than legal migration. One employment visas fell by 16.1 percent reason is that workers dominate ille- from 2008 to 2009.25 The H-1B cap gal flows, while legal migration also of 65,000 for the 2010 fiscal year was includes family-based and humanitar- not reached until December 2009, a ian migrants. drastic change over previous years, Like legal workers, unauthorized when quotas were filled within a few migrants are better tolerated by author- days of the opening for applications. ities during economic expansions and And the H-1B cap for fiscal year 2011 subject to greater enforcement actions had not been reached as of June 11, during downturns. History provides 2010. Applications for similar tempo- some examples, such as the 1953–54 U.S. recession, which coincided with a major Border Patrol initiative that Chart 2 removed thousands of Mexicans. The recent recession brought Visa Demand Declines Across the Globe in 2009 with it broad-based declines in illegal immigration. In Europe, the EU’s Percent (year/year) border agency, FRONTEX, estimates 0 that undocumented migration fell 33 percent in 2009 relative to 2008. –10 Illegal sea landings in Spain, one of the most common entry points for –20 would-be migrants, fell 46 percent from 2008 to 2009.27 Landings in Italy –30 have also fallen significantly. Some of these declines can be attributed to the –40 recession and some to the increased immigration enforcement in the –50 Mediterranean Sea. Hong Kong U.S. U.K. Australia Ireland Employment visas, H-1B applications, Worker Registration Subclass 457 primary Social security Along the U.S.–Mexico border, FY2009/2008 to FY2009/FY2008 Scheme applications, visas, cases lodged registrations, FY2008/2007 2009/2008 (skilled workers), new workers annual apprehensions of undocu- Dec. 2009/Dec. 2008 (PPS nos.), mented migrants fell 33 percent from 2009/2008 2007 to 2009 (Chart 3). Apprehensions SOURCES: Hong Kong Department of Immigration; U.S. Department of State; UK Home Office; Australian Department of in 2009 were down 55 percent from Immigration and Citizenship; Irish Department of Social Protection. 2005, when the housing boom was nearing its peak. According to the

EconomicLetter 6 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS EconomicLetter Mexican statistical agency INEGI, net flows of Mexicans to the U.S. were Chart 3 down 61 percent from levels reached during the housing boom peak in Migrant Apprehensions Along U.S.–Mexico Border Fall 2006 (from 369,500 in second quarter in Recessions 2006 to 144,200 in second quarter 2009).28 Thousands* Family and humanitarian 200 immigration steady. Tighter policies have mainly targeted labor migration, 180 but employment-based inflows typi- 160

cally account for less than half of total 140 immigration. In Western Europe and 120 the U.S., the bulk of migration is family-based and humanitarian, both large- 100 ly insensitive to economic conditions. 80

U.S. non-work-based immigration 60 barely budged in the recession, with nonemployment green cards account- 40 ing for over 85 percent of legal perma- 20 29 nent resident admissions in 2007–09. 0 If lawmakers really wanted to control ’10’09’08’07’06’05’04’03’02’01’00’99’98’97’96’95’94’93’92’91 total worker inflows in a recession, * Seasonally adjusted.

they would have to restrict family- NOTE: Shaded bars indicate U.S. recessions.

based migration as well. SOURCE: U.S. Border Patrol.

What Now? Recent GDP data are increasingly work permit quotas in some categories Census and the Department of Homeland Secu- positive across the globe, suggesting in May after slashing them by half in rity; no 2006 data available for Italy. 2 that the worst of the global reces- January. Malaysia has eased its strict The A8 accession countries are the Czech sion may be over. Across the largest migration policies somewhat, allowing Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, economies emerging from recession, some manufacturers to recruit foreign Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. growth in the second half of 2009 workers. It remains to be seen whether 3 See “World Economic Outlook,” International and first quarter of 2010 was respect- these and other countries can realign Monetary Fund, April 2010, p. 2, www.imf.org/ able. The U.S. economy has grown 2.6 their labor and migration policies with external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/pdf/c1.pdf. percent in real terms since bottoming their economies as the global economic 4 Under this new rule, the Department of Home- out in second quarter 2009; Germany recovery picks up speed. land Security may not approve H-2A visa peti- has grown 1.1 percent and Japan 2.5 tions until the Department of Labor certifies that percent. The IMF predicts that global Nicholson is a research analyst and Orrenius is there are not sufficient U.S. workers qualified and output will expand 4.2 percent in 2010 a research officer and senior economist in the available to perform the labor involved and that 30 and 4.3 percent in 2011. Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank the employment of the foreign worker will not As the global economy recovers, of Dallas. have an adverse effect on the wages and working the demands for labor and migra- Notes conditions of similarly employed U.S. workers. tion are expected to bounce back. 5 See “A Conversation with Lisa Roney: Tapping The authors thank the Transatlantic Forum on Coincident with the slowly improving Technology for Immigration Enforcement,” Fed- Migration and Integration (TFMI) participants, outlook, some countries have taken eral Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, baby steps toward reversing the migra- a network of migration experts assembled by Second Quarter, 2010. tion policy changes they implemented the German Marshall Fund and Robert Bosch 6 See “SOPEMI Country Notes 2009: Ireland” at the height of the recession. Italy, Foundation, for inspiring us to write this article, and “SOPEMI Country Notes 2009: Spain,” for example, is again allowing entry as well as providing data and anecdotes from available on the Organization for Economic for some categories of nonseasonal around the world. Cooperation and Development (OECD) website foreign workers, but overall quotas 1 Unless otherwise noted, migration and popula- at www.oecd.org/document/48/0,3343, remain tighter than prior to the reces- tion data in this article are from Eurostat, the en_2649_33931_44060528_1_1_1_1,00.html. sion. Switzerland increased its 2010 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the

EconomicLetter FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS 7 EconomicLetter EconomicLetter is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal 7 See “Migrant Workers Face Tougher Test to and Mirrors: Mexican Immigration in an Age of Reserve System. Work in the United Kingdom,” U.K. Home Office, Economic Integration, by Douglas Massey, Jorge Articles may be reprinted on the condition that Feb. 22, 2009. Durand and Nolan J. Malone, New York: Russell the source is credited and a copy is provided to the 8 See “Global Client Alerts: Ireland,” FRAGOMEN, Sage Foundation, 2003. Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. April 21, 2009, www.fragomen.com/ 19 Data from the Central Statistics Office of Economic Letter is available free of charge newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST= Ireland. Data include both the 2004 and 2007 by writing the Public Affairs Department, Federal GlobalAlerts&news=463; also see Migration accession countries. Bulgaria and Romania joined Reserve Bank of Dallas, P.O. Box 655906, Dallas, TX News, vol. 16, no. 3, July 2009, University of the EU in 2007. 75265-5906; by fax at 214-922-5268; or by telephone at 214-922-5254. This publication is available on the California, Davis, http://migration.ucdavis.edu/ 20 Department of Social Protection, Republic of Dallas Fed website, www.dallasfed.org. mn/more.php?id=3531_0_4_0. Ireland, www.welfare.ie/EN/Topics/PPSN/Pages/ 9 See “International Migration Outlook, 2009,” ppsn_all_years.aspx. OECD, June 2009. 21 “Statistical Bulletin on Foreigners and Immigra- 10 See “Presentation to the Joint Committee on tion,” Spanish Ministry of Labor and Immigra- the Constitution,” Immigrant Council of Ireland, tion, August 2009, http://extranjeros.mtas.es/ Oct. 7, 2009. es/InformacionEstadistica/Boletines/Archivos/ 11 See “Tough New Points System for Earning Boletin_21_Ingles.pdf. Citizenship,” U.K. Home Office, Aug. 3, 2009; 22 Data from “Estadística de Variaciones Resi- also see “Citizenship Points Plan Launched,” BBC denciales,” Spanish National Statistical Institute, News, Aug. 3, 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/ www.ine.es/jaxi/menu.do?type=pcaxis&path=%2 hi/8180749.stm. Ft20%2Fp307&file=inebase&L=0. 12 See “Country Notes 2009: Ireland,” OECD; also 23 Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) see “Buyer’s Remorse on Immigration Contin- tables, U.K. Office for National Statistics, ues,” Migration Information Source, Migration www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product. Policy Institute, December 2009, www. asp?vlnk=15053. migrationinformation.org/Feature/display. 24 See “Control of Immigration: Quarterly Sta- Richard W. Fisher cfm?id=759. tistical Summary,” U.K. Home Office, February President and Chief Executive Officer 13 See “SOPEMI Country Notes 2009: Italy,” 2010, http://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs10/ Helen E. Holcomb OECD; also see “Migration and the Global Reces- immiq409.pdf. First Vice President and Chief Operating Officer sion,” by Michael Fix, Demetrios G. Papademe- 25 Figures from Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics, Harvey Rosenblum triou, Jeanne Batalova, Aaron Terrazas, Serena Visa Office, U.S. Department of State, Executive Vice President and Director of Research Yi-Ying Lin and Michelle Mittelstadt, Migration http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/nivstats/ Policy Institute, September 2009, p. 57, www. nivstats_4582.html. Robert D. Hankins Executive Vice President, Banking Supervision migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-Sept09. 26 Figures from the Australian Department of pdf. Immigration and Citizenship, www.immi.gov.au/ Director of Research Publications 14 See “Pay to Go: Countries Offer Cash to Im- media/statistics/statistical-info/temp-entrants/ Mine Yücel migrants Willing to Pack Their Bags,” Migration subclass-457.htm. Executive Editor 27 Information Source, Migration Policy Institute, See “Inside Spain 63,” by William Chislett, Real Jim Dolmas November 2009, www.migrationinformation.org/ Instituto Elcano, www.realinstitutoelcano.org/ Feature/display.cfm?ID=749. materiales/insidespain/63_InsideSpain_ Associate Editor Jennifer Afflerbach 15 See note 13, Fix et al., p. 64. ElcanoNewsletter.pdf. 16 See note 12, “Buyer’s Remorse on Immigration 28 See “Comunicado de Prensa 351/09,” Mexican Graphic Designer Continues.” National Statistical Agency (INEGI), Dec. 28, Ellah Piña 17 See note 12, “Buyer’s Remorse on Immigration 2009, www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/ Continues.” espanol/prensa/Boletines/Boletin/Comunicados/ 18 Figures from the 2001 Yearbook of Immigra- Especiales/2009/diciembre/comunica13.pdf. tion Statistics, Department of Homeland Security. 29 Figures based on data from the Office of Im- Despite the falloff in migration, policymakers migration Statistics, Department of Homeland also took matters into their own hands, deporting Security. 30 nearly a million Mexican immigrants, many of See note 3. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS whom were legal immigrants. See Beyond Smoke 2200 N. PEARL ST. DALLAS, TX 75201