Europe, US and China Tomorrow Will It Be Possible to Avoid Geopolitical and Economic Traps?
Europe, US and China tomorrow Will it be possible to avoid geopolitical and economic traps? Discussion Paper # 47 I November 2020 Philippe ITHURBIDE, Senior Economic Advisor Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry Europe, US and China tomorrow Will it be possible to avoid geopolitical and economic traps? Philippe ITHURBIDE Abstract Senior Economic Advisor here are many pitfalls looming. Some concern November 6, 2020 TChina, the United States and Europe, while others are more targeted, notably on China or on the relationship between China and the United States. Some traps concern geopolitics (the Thucydides trap, the Kindleberger trap, the Herodotus trap, the Tacitus trap, the Chamberlain - Daladier trap and the cold war trap), while others deal with purely economic issues (the middle-income trap, the inflation trap, the stagflation trap and the debt trap). All the traps are real, and some of them already materialised, at Some Cupid kills with least partially: arrows, some with traps China cannot rule ” some functions of William Shakespeare, power yet, some English dramatist, playwright and poet (1564 - 1616), in “Much ado about old powers have nothing”, Act III, sc. 1 (1600) clear ambitions (China, Turkey, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia notably), Xi Jinping statements are listened to with great perplexity / suspicion (as was also the case for D. Trump); and some cold war elements are very noticeable between the United States and China. Same conclusion about the economic traps: debt worries have resurfaced, stagflation looms, and inflation is on its way. As for China, there is no doubt that deglobalisation threatens Chinese growth significantly.
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