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Chapter 5: Economic Conditions A. INTRODUCTION and METHODOLOGY B. BACKGROUND HISTORY

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Chapter 5: Economic Conditions A. INTRODUCTION and METHODOLOGY B. BACKGROUND HISTORY Chapter 5: Economic Conditions A. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY The TSM Alternative and Build Alternatives 1 and 2 would result in a variety of transportation improvements that may affect economic activity in the primary study area. In addition, subway improvements proposed in Build Alternatives 1 and 2 may also affect the secondary area, West Midtown. This chapter examines economic conditions in the study areas, focusing on employ- ment and commercial development. An overview of employment trends in the city is provided as background to a detailed analysis of existing employment by type within zones and neighbor- hoods in the primary and secondary MESA study area (see page 3-1 and Figure 3-1 in Chapter 3, “Land Use, Zoning, and Public Policy,” for the study area boundaries). In addition, major em- ployers or industries that dominate or characterize the neighborhoods are identified. Following that analysis of existing conditions, changes to employment predicted to occur as part of the future background conditions are analyzed. Finally, each of the four alternatives are analyzed for potential economic impacts, including impacts related to regional and/or local economic conditions, such as development, tax revenues and public expenditures, employment opportuni- ties, accessibility, retail sales, the economic vitality of existing businesses, and the effect of a proposed project on established business districts. This chapter assesses the potential impacts on economic conditions that may occur as a result of the operation of each project alternative. Impacts on economic conditions during constrution are documented in Chapter 15, “Construction and Construction Impacts.” Sources for this analysis include employment figures from the U.S. Department of Labor and the 1990 Census of Population and Housing, as well as information on land use and land use trends and on population and housing gathered for Chapters 3 and 4 of this document. These were supplemented by field surveys conducted in fall of 1997. B. BACKGROUND HISTORY Changes in the economy of Manhattan over the past several decades provide a useful context for understanding existing and probable future conditions. In the past three decades, Manhattan’s employment base has been relatively stable at slightly more than 2 million jobs, but its composition has changed dramatically. Manufacturing has declined steadily during the period —most notably apparel manufacturing, once so vital in the midtown Garment Center. Largely offsetting this decrease, nonmanufacturing sectors—in particular, office jobs in the service and finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) sectors—have shown the largest increases over time and spurred heavy office construction in the 1980's. Figure 5-1 summarizes the principal Manhattan employment trends from 1960 to 1997, and Table 5-1 summarizes the data for the same period. As shown in the figure and table, manufacturing 5-1 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS Table 5-1 Summary of Employment Trends in Manhattan, 1960 to 1997 Finance, Total Insurance, Private Public Year Manufacturing & R. E. Service(1) Retail Sector(2) Sector Total 1960 525,400 304,600 392,400 243,900 1,968,200 (3) (3) 1965 465,300 319,600 420,100 231,000 1,908,600 (3) (3) 1970 413,700 389,300 494,700 223,500 1,980,300 (3) (3) 1975 293,700 353,900 506,500 185,200 1,702,300 (3) (3) 1980 276,400 385,800 601,000 187,100 1,805,100 399,900 2,205,100 1985 226,900 444,200 678,100 203,300 1,884,000 436,400 2,320,400 1990 186,600 449,800 736,000 196,600 1,857,700 485,000 2,342,700 1995 152,900 400,700 704,000 184,600 1,685,700 418,200 2,103,900 1997(4) 146,800 395,200 758,500 195,400 1,735,800 426,800 2,162,600 Notes: All figures have been rounded; amounts are for persons covered by unemployment insurance; all figures except for 1997 are average annual amounts. (1) Service sector employment figures prior to 1972 have been adjusted to reflect consistency in the coverage of service sector employees. (2) Includes categories not shown separately. (3) Local government workers were not covered prior to 1978, so public sector and total amounts are not comparable with those for subsequent years. (4) As of first quarter 1997. Source: New York State Department of Labor. employment during the period declined steadily from more than 525,000 jobs in 1960 to fewer than 147,000 in 1997, a decline of 72 percent. Service employment increased steadily from about 392,000 in 1960 until the recession in the early 1990's, and has increased steadily again since then, equaling 758,500, or 43.7 percent of Manhattan’s private sector employment in the first quarter of 1997. FIRE employment increased dramatically beginning in the mid-1960's, peaked at about 480,000 in the late 1980's, and then—after the stock market decline in 1987—has been mildly declining. Retail trade, which represents about 11 percent of Manhattan’s private sector employment, has experienced stretches of small increases and decreases, declining from 1960 until just before 1980, increasing from 1980 to 1986, decreasing from 1986 to the early 1990's, and increasing recently to more than 195,000 jobs. As a result of the interacting of these trends, overall private sector employment in Manhattan peaked at a little more than 2.0 million in the late 1960's (1969), declined to 1.7 million in the mid- 1970's (1977), increased again to more than 1.9 million in the late 1980's (1987 and 1988), de- clined to less than 1.7 million in the recession of the early 1990's, and is increasing again in the mid-1990's. Throughout the period for which figures are available, public sector employment has also been an important component of employment in Manhattan. (All figures are from the New York State Department of Labor.) Corresponding to these shifts in the types of employment in Manhattan have been shifts in the location of employment. Historically, this began with the movement away from the Manhattan waterfront (similar to the movement of employment away from the waterfront in other areas, 5-2 Chapter 5: Economic Conditions such as Brooklyn and older suburbs, such as Yonkers and Mount Vernon). Reductions in manu- facturing and warehousing also altered the functions of older area, such as Tribeca and Soho, and decreased the intensity of the garment center as an employment location. Other historically important employment centers, such as Wall Street and the financial district, retained their im- portance throughout the period. Increases in employment occurred primarily at sites for new office locations, such as Battery Park City and previously vacant or underdeveloped sites in Midtown and Lower Manhattan. C. EXISTING CONDITIONS REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE The New York region was more affected by the economic downturn that followed the stock market decline in 1987 than was the national economy. This region, as defined by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC), is a 31-county area that includes New York City and the surrounding counties in New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York State. Between 1990 and 1992, the region lost about 496,000 jobs, or 4.6 percent of its total. By 1995, however, the region contained about 10.5 million jobs, gaining back after 1992 about 305,000 jobs, or 3.0 percent of its total. Both the region and its center, Manhattan, have continued to experience em- ployment growth since 1995. Regional trends that affected Manhattan in the mid- to late-1980's included firms moving “back- office” operations to nearby New Jersey locations and the outer boroughs (especially Brooklyn) when Manhattan rents were high. This trend decreased in the subsequent period when Manhat- tan’s employment fell, vacancies increased (particularly in Lower Manhattan), and rents were scaled back. Other regional economic trends include the continued development of suburban of- fice space as a separate market from Manhattan within the region, most notably in Westchester and Nassau Counties, New York, and Fairfield County, Connecticut. These markets ex- perienced the same downturn during the early 1990's as the remainder of the region. Other major regional trends include retail development in areas adjacent to New York City, in particular regional shopping centers in Westchester and Nassau Counties, New York, and Bergen and Hudson Counties, New Jersey. As the center of the region, Manhattan has continued to be its dominant employment concentra- tion. Table 5-2 summarizes recent employment trends in Manhattan. Since 1990, manufacturing employment has continued to decline. FIRE employment, after its dramatic loss following the 1987 stock market decline, has experienced relatively minor decreases since 1992. Service em- ployment, after adjusting to the downturn in the early 1990's, has continued to grow dramatically, with the most recent figures the highest ever recorded in Manhattan. Retail trade has also con- tinued to grow since 1992. As a result, Manhattan’s private sector employment and total em- ployment have gained back much of the loss of the early 1990's and have continued to grow in the most recent period. 5-3 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE STUDY AREA OVERVIEW Economic activity in the primary study area is quite varied, both in type and density. Lower Manhattan is well known as the financial center of the world and the governmental center of New York City. The Lower East Side is primarily residential, but its immigrant populations and ethnic character have traditionally provided support for the garment industry, as well as an at- traction for visitors. East Midtown is a giant economic engine that provides more than ½ million jobs.
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