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Effects of Global Warming on and Health

Jennifer Lopez

Editor Werner Lang Aurora McClain

csd Center for Sustainable Development I-Context Challenge

2 1.2 Effects of Global Warming on Health

Effects of Global Warm- ing on Wildlife and Human Health

Jennifer Lopez

Based on a presentation by Dr. Camille Parmesan main picture of presentation

Figure 1: Earth from Outer Space.

Introduction of greenhouse emissions.”4 Finally in 2007, the Fourth IPCC Assessment report concluded Global warming is defined as “the increase that the “warming of the climate system is un- in the average measured temperature of the equivocal” and “is very likely [> 90% sure] due Earth’s near surface air and oceans”.1 For the to observed increases in anthropogenic green- past several decades scientists have docu- gas concentrations.”5 Based on these mented multiple aspects of climate change, conclusions, many scientists and environmen- including rising surface air temperature, rising talists have focused their efforts on sustainable ocean temperature, changes in and snow- living and are pushing for alternatives fall patterns, declines in permanent snowpack which produce little or no carbon-dioxide to and sea , and a rise in sea level.2 Through reduce greenhouse gas emissions. their research, scientists have been able not only to document changes in climate and the Effects of temperature change physical environment, but have also docu- mented effects that this phenomenon is having Scientists have concluded that in the past 100 on the world’s and , many years, the Earth’s average air temperature has of which are negative. risen 0.74°C (See Figure 2). This graph indi- cates that the temperature has been steadily Although global warming can occur naturally rising since about 1975. It may not seem like a as a result of variation in the amount of solar big change because the overall number is low, energy reaching the earth, the Intergovern- but in fact, this rise has had a dramatic effect mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the environment and its inhabiting species. has concluded that climate change of the Of some 1592 species observed, 41% have past 30 years is largely attibuted to a human- shifted their ranges toward higher elevations or caused increases in greenhouse gas emis- closer to the poles, while another 62% showed sions.2 As the research has progressed, the some sort of shift to earlier spring breeding, concern about greenhouse gas emissions migrating, leafing, or blooming.6 Additionally, has increased. In 1995, the Second IPCC every major group that has been studied, Assessment Report stated that “the balance of whether trees, butterflies, , , evidence suggests discernable human influ- amphibians, fish, or marine coral, has been ence on global climate change.”3 In 2001, the affected in some way. 7 Third IPCC Assessment concluded that “most observed warming is likely due to the increase Global warming has affected more than just

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species. The increase in ocean and air temperatures has also affected the Earth’s ice caps and . According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 2007 “a record low Arctic sea ice extent was observed which led to the first recorded opening of the Canadian Northwest Passage.”8 Additionally, “the largest single block of ice in the Arctic, the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf, had existed for 3000 years before it starting cracking in 2000. Within two years it had split all the way through and is now breaking into pieces.”9 Figure 3, taken from NASA satellites, depicts the shrinking of the Arctic ice cap as a whole. Scientists estimate that it has shrunk by about 20% since 1979.9

A reduction of twenty percent over 30 years averages to a rate of more than 6% per de- cade. If this rate continues, the will no longer exist at the end of the century. Melting glaciers are expected to contribute to sea level rise over the next few centuries. Even recent sea level rise, which to date has largely been due to expansion of the as Figure 2: Instrumental temperature record it warms, has been sufficient to cause prob- lems in low-lying coastal regions. Rise in sea levels is a problem because it increases beach corrosion, coastal flooding, and contamination of freshwater supplies.9 In 2001, an EPA study suggested that a rise in sea levels of 3 feet (a level for 2100 projected by multiple studies) would “inundate some 22,400 square miles of along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the , primarily in Louisiana, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.”9 Although the observed rise in the Earth’s temperature might seem slight, the effects are already apparent, and will become increasingly dramatic.

Effect of global warming on species

Global warming has proven harmful to many of the Earth’s species. Changes in tempera- ture, rainfall and snowpack are affecting the way that many species live. Many are moving closer to the poles as the more equatorial parts of their range become climatically unsuit- able, while others that live in mountain areas are moving to higher altitudes. A recent study of nearly 1,600 species of and Figure 3: Decrease in Polar Ice Caps. The red line shows the summer Artic ice boundary in 1979. Image was taken in 2003. discovered movement toward the poles at an average rate of 3.8 miles per decade.6 For instance, the purple emperor butterfly, which Sea.10 With glacial retreat in the Andes, three clines in winter sea ice .”12 Many of the historically only went as far north as Esto- species of , along with their parasitic fun- tiny that the penguins feed on, like nia, has now begun inhabiting Sweden and gus, have shifted 400m higher in altitude over krill shrimp, feed off of the algae. It is believed Finland. Their rate of colonization has been the past 70 years.11 that shrinking sea ice has led to declines in rapid, a 100km expansion in just three years.4 algae, which in turn has led to a decrease in A warm-adpated group of marine copepods, Although some species have successfully krill shrimp, and thus a decline in the penguins’ which once only went as far north as the shifted where they live and adapted to new supply.13 Additionally, polar bears have Northeast Atlantic, has shifted up to 1000km areas, others have not. For example, “over even been drowning due to the longer swim northward over the past four decades and now the past 25 years, some Antarctic penguin lengths they must endure between ice flows.12 is abundant in the northern part of the North populations have shrunk by 33% due to de- Also, the thinning of the ice caps “leaves fewer

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places for both the polar bears to hunt [for seals] and the seals to raise their young.”13 Because polar bears need “2kg of fat per day,” land animals and berries will not be enough to keep them alive, thus they need an abundance of high fat , such as seals, for continued survival.2

However, the most negatively affected ter- restrial species have been high elevation cloud frogs. Of these, 74 species have become extinct over the past 30 years.14 Their are believed to be linked to climate change, because most have occurred only at particular elevations, and in relatively undisturbed areas. “According to this recent study, Earth’s rising temperatures are altering both temperatures and cloud cover on tropical mountains, leading to cooler days and warmer nights, both of which should favor the chytrid fungus, based on lab studies which indicated that the fungus grows and reproduces best Figure 4: High elevation cloud forest Figure 5: Mosquito penetrating human flesh at temperatures between 63 to 77° F (17 to 25° C).”15 Some scientists believe that climate Mosquitoes carrying malaria were found at Once again, the species most affected are change has improved conditions for this previously unobserved elevations on Mount the amphibians, with a nearly 30 day shift in fungus at elevations where it previously non- in 2006. As the temperatures rise, dates.5 optimal climatically, and that these changing higher elevations become more hospitable conditions for the fungus has caused many for mosquitoes and more dangerous for local This change in seasonal timing is also affect- species of frogs to become extinct. inhabitants.”16 ing seasons for human activities, crops, and vegetation. In one recent article, maple syrup Effects of global warming on human and These are not the only incidents recorded, producers in New Hampshire were blaming animal diseases nor will they be the last. Global warming will global warming for their earlier tap seasons. continue to have a negative effect on human Producers claimed that “they [were] tapping Global warming will not only affect what spe- . However, these effects will not always their trees about a month earlier than their cies eat and where they live, it will also affect be direct. will also be at risk due to ancestors did.”18One producer claimed that the their health, including that of human beings. severe weather and flooding caused by the maple syrup season began to change about Some of the widespread health problems changes in temperatures and sea levels. 20 years ago and that the tapping season projected to affect humans are “devastating Additionally, humans can be affected by what shifted from March to February during the last heat waves, poisonous plants producing more they eat, as is the case with foods like oysters, century. The rise in temperatures is so drastic potent toxins, air quality plummeting on sum- which can contain in warm that is beginning to react to the change, mer days, disease-carrying insects swarming . Several studies have explored the which is understandable when natural occur- mountain villages, and an increase in allergies prevalence of this problem. The bacterium is rences that once took place in March are now and asthma.”16 Some health statistics are as found in marine and estuarine environments happening in February. follows: and thrives in warm seawater since it requires salt for growth.17 Of all the cases of infection Warmer winters have also caused moth and “In the summer of 2003, an intense heat wave by the vibrio vulnificus bacterium from the Gulf beetle populations to expand and to shift was blamed for an estimated 35,000 deaths of Mexico, 89% occurred in humans eating toward the poles. “Extended growing sea- across large swaths of . A study says seafood (primarily oysters) that were caught in sons have resulted in increased forest pest that global warming has doubled the likelihood warm waters. For patients admitted to hospital, outbreaks and loss of productivity.”2 The of heat waves of this magnitude. the mortality rate was 30-48%. A continued rise most notable example of this phenomenon in sea temperatures is expected to increase is the Spruce bark beetle epidemic that has In 2008 scientists found that poison ivy vines outbreaks of vibrio vulnificus, thus increasing killed some 3.8 million acres of trees in Alaska. have grown 10 times denser near Savannah, the number of humans affected by the disease. Growths of Mountain pine beetles in Colorado Georgia, over the last 20 years. Increased and British Columbia and of pine procession- carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes ary moths in Italy and France have also dam- poison ivy to grow larger and produce stronger Effects of global warming on seasons aged large stands of timber.7 irritants. The changes in Earth’s temperature are also Six young men and boys were killed by fatal Projected impacts of global affecting the world’s seasons. Animals are parasites in 2007, after they swam in water breeding earlier than before, and trees, shrubs, warming at Arizona’s Lake Havasu that was infested and plants are blooming and leafing sooner with a heat-loving amoeba. The Centers for Global warming is just beginning, and will than they used to.7 Figure 6 best illustrates the Disease Control and Prevention expect more only worsen if alternatives are not imple- change in spring dates of different species. of these illnesses as global temperatures rise. mented. From this report, one can begin to

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understand the magnitude of the impact that climate change has had on the environment and its inhabiting species. These results have occurred without even a full 1° C rise in temperature. What will become of the world mean 2.8 if the temperature continues to rise? Will the days/decade Earth and its ecosystems be able to adjust? advance Many Researchers and scientist believe that they may not.

Some scientists predict that a 2°C increase in temperature would cause an overall “projected of 20% of species worldwide.”2 There would also be an increase in the Figure 6: Trends in timing of spring events among northern temperate species incidence of tropical diseases, which would lead to an increase in the number of human deaths wolrdwide. Additionally, there would be a decline in the production of agriculture and farming at lower latitudes, and an increase in production for higher latitudes, i.e. Canada.2 Large concentrations of tundra and sea ice would likely become scarce, thus leading to extinction or near extinction of many of polar animals such as polar bears, seals, and caribou.2

To emphasize the negative effects of global warming further, scientists also predicted the impacts of a 4°C rise in temperature. At this level, the world would begin to see mass extinctions of species, up to 70% of those cur- rently existing. A complete loss of suitable cli- mate space for a large number of species and ecosystems would also be likely.2,19 The coral reefs of the world would likely become extinct because of the rise in ocean temperatures and increasing ocean acidity due to increased carbon-dioxide. As a result, both tourism and industries would be negatively affected.2 Furthermore, agriculture production would decline for all latitudes throughout the world. This decline in production would result Figure 7: IPCC Time to Reach CO Equilibrium in a large reduction of the food supply for the 2 world’s population; subsequently the world’s population would suffer increased malnutrician and even starvation. oxide or other substances that cause warming. emitted into the atmosphere, they each raise Recommendations for reducing One way to reduce greenhouse gases is to other issues that must be considered. For global warming use alternative energy sources. For instance, instance, the use of brings up switching the fuel used in power plants from questions about where and how the waste coal to gas would decrease the amount of CO would be stored. Some places would be Global warming is affecting the Earth at an 2 alarming rate and changes must be made to that is released into the atmosphere. Other opposed to storing waste in their nearby sur- reduce these effects. Although adaptation can forms of power could come from renewable roundings. Others would be concerned about occur within a margin of +2°, beyond that, it sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric attacks on the power plants themselves or on becomes increasingly unlikely. The only way power. The use of nuclear power, which has the waste sites. also introduces to prevent an increase of this magnitude is to proven successful in Europe, could also be problems. Already, rare and endangered spe- 2 decrease the emission of greenhouse gases. considered. Most biofuels actually emit more cies have been hurt and killed by windmills. Scientists believe that greenhouse gases are carbon during farming and energy-production The windmills pose a threat to birds, especially the primary cause of temperature increases, processes than they capture through during migratory seasons. Additionally, some so to combat the problem, society must find growth, and so should be considered on a birds mistake the shadows of the mills for 2 ways to reduce greenhouse gases through case-by-case basis. larger predators and thus do not nest near 2 conservation and use of those renewable them out of fear of being destroyed. sources of energy which do not emit carbon-di- Although using these forms of energy would decrease the amount of greenhouse gases

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Energy efficiency and conservation are an make use of natural lighting and thermal or 8. Nodvin, Stephen C. (Lead Author); Kevin essential pat of any strategy for reducing the . New construction should comply Vranes (Topic Editor). 2008. “Global warm- emission of greenhouse gases. Improved with LEED and other energy related standards ing.” In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. efficiency of home appliances and cars is and all appliances need to be energy efficient. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental one way to reduce the effects. Also, knowl- It is the responsibility of professionals to Information Coalition, National Council for edge about conservation and consumption educate owners and clients about the use of Science and the Environment). . First conditioning and heating is one form of energy responsibility of politicians and world leaders published in the Encyclopedia of Earth 14 conservation. Unplugging appliances and to enforce sustainable living through public March 2007. Last revised 12 September 2008. turning off lights when they are not in use will policy and . People and businesses Retrieved 21 September 2008. conserve energy. Building green buildings will need incentives to live sustainably and it is and improving the efficiency of current homes the government’s job to offer those incentives. 9. “Issues: Global Warming.” Natural Resourc- and buildings will also help. Improved natural New buildings need to meet higher standards es Defense Council. . Last revised 9 building efficiency. Ensuring that doors and comply with codes. What the world needs is February 2007. Retrieved 21 September 2008. windows are properly caulked and sealed a change in lifestyle. Without it, the effects of conserves energy. global warming will continue to multiply, bring- 10. Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibanez F, Lindley ing disastrous consequences. JA, Edwards M. 2002. Reorganization of North The list of improvements is infinite and a mul- Atlantic marine copepod and titude of variations can always be improvised. climate. Science 296:1692-94. The key is to start now. Ideally, the overall goal Notes is to lower total consumption of energy and 11. Seimon, T.A. et al. 2007. Upward range . However, people must realize that 1. “Global Warming.” Wikipedia: The Free extension of Andean anurans and chytridi- even with a reduction in greenhouse gas emis- Encyclopedia. tropical deglaciation. Global Change Biology equilibrium (See Figure 7). The change will not Last revised 21 September 2008. Retrieved 22 13:288-299. happen overnight, but it must be set in motion September 2008. if we are to prevent further rise of the earth’s 12. “Consequences of Global Warming on temperature. 2. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Wildlife.” Natural Resources Defense Council. Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group < http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/fcons/ Conclusion I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the In- fcons3.asp>. Last revised 22 July 2008. Re- tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. trieved 21 September 2008. Global warming has begun and will continue Solomon et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, to negatively affect the world around us unless Cambridge, UK, and New York, 2007). 13. “Wildlife and Global Warming.” National society can find ways to prevent it through Wildlife Federation. Retrieved 21 September alternative lifestyles and mindsets. Even with 3. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 2008. . world has began to see negative effects: spe- Science of Climate Change, Contribution of cies are migrating toward the poles, plants and Working Group I to the Intergovernmental 14. Pounds JA, Bustamente MR, Coloma animals are blooming and breeding sooner, Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment LA, Consuegra JA, Fogden MPL, et al. 2006. farmers are seeing an trend toward earlier crop Report. ed. JT Houghton, Y Ding, DJ Griggs, M Widespread amphibian extinctions from production, and human diseases and health Noguer, PJ van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell, epidemic disease driven by global warming. problems are increasing. With a continued rise CA Johnson. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Nature 439:161--673. in greenhouse emissions, the effects of global University Press. warming will only get worse. The world will still 15. Butler, Rhett A. “Climate Change is Killing be able to adapt within a +2° margin, however, 4. Parmesan, C. Ecological and evolutionary Frogs Finds New Research.” .com. any variation beyond that would be catastroph- responses to recent climate change. Annual < http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0111- ic and irreversible. Reviews of Ecology and Systematics 37:637- frogs.html>. Last revised 11 January 2006. 669. Parmesan 1999 Retrieved 21 September 2008. In order to avoid these catastrophic situations, people must change the way that they live. 5. Parmesan, C. 2007a. Influence of species, 16. “Consequences of Global Warming on Societies must consider the use of alternative latitudes and methodologies on estimates of Health.” Natural Resources Defense Council. resources, preferably renewable resources phenological response to global warming. < http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/fcons/ that do not deplete the world’s natural stores. Global Change Biology 13: 1860-1872. fcons2.asp> Last revised 22 July 2008. Re- Using these renewable resources will also trieved 21 September 2008. serve to minimize the emission of greenhouse 6. Parmesan, C & G. Yohe. A globally coher- gases. It will not be enough just to switch from ent fingerprint of climate change impacts in 17. “Vibrio Vulnificus.” Todar’s Online Textbook coal to natural gas, because eventually that natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42. of Bacteriology. University of Wisconsin-Madi- will also be depleted. Renewable re- son Department of Bacteriology. < http://www. sources such as solar and wind are essential. 7. Parmesan 2006 textbookofbacteriology.net/V.vulnificus.html>. Furthermore, architects and engineers must Last revised 2008. Retrieved 21 September find ways to incorporate sustainable living into 2008. their designs and buildings. Designers must

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18. Associated Press. “Warming Trend Blamed References for Syrup Season Change.” The Boston Globe. . 22 March 2004. Retrieved 21 September 2008. Parmesan, Camille. 2006. “Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate 19. Parmesan 2007b. Written Testimony to Change.” See full reference above the United States House of Representatives, Select Committee on Energy Independence Parmesan 2007b. Written Testimony to the and Global Warming hearing on “Dangerous United States House of Representatives, Climate Change.” April 26. 2007 Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming hearing on “Dangerous Climate Change.” April 26. 2007. Figures

Figure 1: NASA.gov Biography

Figure 2: Instrumental Record of Global Dr. Camille Parmesan is an associate profes- Average Temperatures as compiled by the sor in Integrative Biology at the University of Climatic Research Unit of the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Parmesan received her East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the UK PhD in from the University of Texas in Meteorological Office. Data set TaveGL2v was 1995 and then did a post-doc at the National used. The most recent documentation for this Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, data set is Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003) Santa Barbara. “Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision Parmesan‘s early research focused on multiple and an update to 2001”. Journal of Climate, aspects of population biology, including the 16, 206-223. . her work has focused on impacts of 20th century climate change on wildlife. Her work Figure 3: Comparison of extent of arctic polar on butterfly range shifts has been highlighted ice cap, from 1979 to 2003. . such as Science, Science News, New York Times, London Times, National Public Radio, Figure 4: Cloud Forest Frog. The World Con- and the recent BBC film series “State of the servation Union (IUCN) has listed this frog as ” with . Critically Endangered and facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild, because The intensification of global warming as an most of them have disappeared since 1988. international issue led her into the interface seminars in DC for the White House, govern- ment agencies, and NGOs (such as IUCN and Figure 5: Close-up of an Aedes aegypti female WWF). As a lead author, she was involved mosquito sucking blood from a man’s arm. in multiple aspects of the Third Assessment (Credit: James Gathany, Centers for Disease Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA) < http:// on Climate Change, United Nations). uanews.org/node/17643

Figure 6: Trends in Timing of Spring Events. Parmesan, Camille. 2007a.

Figure 7: Time to Reach Equilibrium. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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