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CONSTRUCTION It’S Raining Jobs!

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CONSTRUCTION It’S Raining Jobs! July 4, 2012 CONSTRUCTION It’s raining jobs! IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA CONSTRUCTION July 4, 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. MOMENTUM OF JOB FLOWS IS ON THE RISE ........................................................................ 6 2. 2H12 SECTOR THEME ................................................................................................................. 7 3. RAIL AND HIGHWAY JOBS ARE MAIN SECTOR DRIVERS .................................................... 8 4. MRT MASTERPLAN HAS MORE MILES TO GO ........................................................................ 9 5. HIGH SPEED RAIL & GEMAS-JB DOUBLE-TRACKING .......................................................... 11 6. SEVERAL HIGHWAYS UNDER 10MP ....................................................................................... 12 7. SPECIALISED WORKS FOR FOUNDATION AND EARTHWORKS PACKAGE ...................... 16 8. ESTIMATION OF COST .............................................................................................................. 19 9. INDICATION OF TIMING .......................................................................................................... 22 10. SECTOR SWOT ANALYSIS AND RISKS .................................................................................... 23 11. POTENTIAL WINNERS .............................................................................................................. 25 12. VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION ................................................................................. 27 13. APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................... 33 2 July 4, 2012 REGIONAL MALAYSIA CONSTRUCTION SHORT TERM (3 MTH) LONG TERM SINGAPORE INDONESIA THAILAND PHILIPPINES CHINA, HONG KONG Conviction Notes from the Field It’s raining jobs! Contractors are becoming more upbeat about job award prospects. This ties in with our view that transport infrastructure-driven projects will get the momentum going for even larger jobs from 2H12 onwards. This should lay the foundation for more active newsflow beyond MRT. Figure 1: Rail and highway jobs Sharizan Rosely RM m 45,000 T (60) 3 20849864 40,000 E [email protected] 40,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 “The government has 20,000 15,000 invested more than 10,000 7,100 5,000 2,200 RM50bn on rail transport 1,000 1,600 0 since the 1990s. Dash Suke Kidex WCE MRT SBK Line HSR MRT 2 & 3 Investment for future rail *Values for Dash, Suke, Kidex and MRT 2 & 3 are based on CIMB's estimates projects is estimated to SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS reach RM160bn by 2020.” ─ Tan Sri Syed Hamid Albar, Likely pre-election driven newsflow We concur with the view of many Chairman, SPAD continues to anchor our Trading Buy contractors that newsflow will call. The sector is not an Overweight continue and may intensify if the given the overhang from Malaysia’s general election is held later rather general election. WCT and Mudajaya than sooner. In light of this, we are now our top picks as contract present three themes for stock flows are likely to pick up, backed by selection in 2H12: (i) order flow better job visibility. They replace IJM recovery and better visibility of job Corp and Gamuda, which still stand wins, (ii) industry laggards which are to benefit from large-scale contracts. at cheap valuations vs. peers, and (iii) land privatisation plays with Focus on transport infrastructure spin-offs. These are the infrastructure key reasons behind our change in top We expect the sector theme for 2H12 picks. Highlighted Companies to be transport infrastructure, specifically large-scale rail and We like WCT and Mudajaya Mudajaya WCT and Mudajaya are more Mudajaya has spare capacity for large-scale highway projects. We estimate that highway jobs. It is vying for two subcontract RM95bn worth of highway and rail optimistic about contract awards, packages from WCE and other highways under jobs could come onstream from this noting that order book visibility for 10MP. Overall, it offers the biggest exposure to potential job wins in 2H12. year onwards. A bonus in 2H12 would 2H12 has improved. We expect both be specialised foundation/earthworks companies to bag some substantial WCT jobs in the near term. Potential job Job visibility has improved and new contracts for Rapid, KLIFD and the RRI land, could top RM1bn in 2H12. New which could be worth a combined wins for these companies could top foundation/earthworks tenders have emerged as RM3bn. We expect total domestic RM1bn in 2H12 and extend beyond another opportunity. The long-awaited decision on a job in Oman could be in the group’s favour. contract job awards in 2012 to hit the MRT. These stocks are trading at RM30bn-35bn, more than triple the the steepest discounts to RNAV MRCB (45-57%), relative cheap CY12-13 MRCB’s share price rerating rides on the EDL record in the past two years. recovery story as there is now clarity in toll P/Es of 5-11x, and offer the largest compensation. Progress on the RRI Land from Jun upside of 27-39%. 12 onwards could spell infrastructure and Themes for stock selection development opportunities for the group. 3 CONSTRUCTION July 4, 2012 KEY CHARTS We expect job awards worth RM30bn-35bn RM m in 2012 40,000 35,000 We continue to be optimistic on the outlook for 35,000 large-scale projects over the medium term and expect 30,000 the momentum of job awards to be strong in 2H12. We are encouraged by the slew of project awards in 1H12. 30 25,000 local projects totalling RM18.3bn have been awarded 20,000 18,246 since the start of the year and we expect the total value of 15,000 contract awards in 2012 to hit RM30bn-35bn. This is 10,000 8,650 8,100 more than triple the RM8.7bn in 2010 and RM8.1bn last 5,000 year. 0 2010 2011 1H12 2012E Order book and potential top-ups The visibility of new contracts has improved for all the 9,000 contractors under our coverage, especially WCT and Mudajaya. Contractors under our coverage are looking at 7,500 6,000 1,000 4,000 between RM1bn and RM4bn worth of potential new jobs 1,000 by end-2012, backed by their current outstanding order 4,500 1,000 1,000 books of RM2bn-5.5bn that should last for at least two 3,000 5,500 1,000 1,000 4,800 4,300 4,000 years. Contract wins are expected to come from the 1,500 3,047 rollout of the remaining packages for the MRT (viaducts 2,100 2,200 0 and stations) as well as highways and power plants. Gamuda IJM Corp MRCB Muhibbah Mudajaya Sunway WCT Outstanding order book YTD (RM m) Potential replenishment by end 2012 (RM m) RM95bn worth of rail and highway jobs RM m We estimate that RM95bn worth of highway and rail jobs 45,000 40,000 40,000 could come onstream from this year onwards and buoy 35,000 30,000 30,000 construction activities. 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,100 2,200 5,000 1,000 1,600 0 Dash Suke Kidex WCE MRT SBK HSR MRT 2 & 3 Line *Values for Dash, Suke, Kidex and MRT 2 & 3 are based on CIMB's estimates We prefer WCT and Mudajaya WCT and Mudajaya could emerge as the biggest winners in terms of the number/frequency of job wins. WCT Foundation boasts expertise and a track record in Companies MRT SBK line WCE Kidex Works Viaducts Stations Depots Main Subcontract Rapid Klifd RRI Land foundation/earthworks. Mudajaya remains the likely works works beneficiary of WCE subcontract packages and is Gamuda No No No No No No Yes No No tendering for Kidex. We remain optimistic about its IJM Corp No No No Yes No No Yes Yes No chances of bagging more power plant civil works MRCB Yes Yes No No No No No No Yes Mudajaya Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No No packages, which could boost newsflow in 2H12. Muhibbah Engineering Yes No No No No No Yes No No Sunway No No No No No No No Yes No WCT No Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS 4 CONSTRUCTION July 4, 2012 Figure 2: Sector Comparisons Bloomberg Price Target Price Market Cap Core P/E (x) 3-year EPS P/BV (x) Recurring ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%) Company Recom. Ticker (local curr) (local curr)(US$ m) CY2011 CY2012CAGR (%) CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2012 Gamuda GAM MK Trading Buy 3.54 4.45 2,334 15.0 12.4 23.8% 3.77 3.55 25.0% 29.4% 30.3% 20.1 14.8 3.1% 3.2% IJM Corp Bhd IJM MK Trading Buy 5.08 6.40 2,227 17.6 13.4 27.8% 2.80 2.64 16.2% 20.5% 21.5% 12.1 9.8 2.4% 2.6% Malaysian Resources Corp MRC MK Trading Buy 1.83 2.02 805 32.5 31.7 13.9% 2.95 2.70 9.8% 9.0% 10.3% 19.8 12.3 1.1% 1.4% MTD ACPI Engineering ACP MK Underperform 0.38 0.40 28 na na na 0.50 0.54 -14.9% -6.4% -4.3% na 50.4 1.9% 1.9% Muhibbah Engineering MUHI MK Trading Sell 1.03 0.94 133 6.8 6.4 34.1% 0.68 0.67 10.1% 10.7% 11.8% 6.4 6.7 4.8% 4.9% Mudajaya Group MDJ MK Trading Buy 2.73 3.78 476 6.5 4.9 16.2% 1.58 1.22 28.7% 27.8% 23.9% 3.2 2.2 4.0% 4.2% Sunway Bhd SWB MK Trading Buy 2.30 2.70 943 8.0 8.3 -16.0% 1.06 0.86 14.1% 11.4% 10.8% 13.5 7.2 0.0% 3.9% WCT Bhd WCT MK Trading Buy 2.40 3.05 625 11.7 10.8 13.0% 1.39 1.26 12.7% 12.2% 13.3% 13.0 8.4 4.1% 4.1% Malaysia average 14.0 12.6 25.6% 2.75 2.60 16.6% 20.0% 21.2% 14.2 11.1 2.7% 2.8% Adhi Karya ADHI IJ Outperform 1,030 1,200 198 10.2 9.6 13.4% 1.76 1.52 19.6% 18.3% 21.6% 3.6 3.0 2.5% 2.4% Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ Outperform 610.0 760.0 315 12.3 11.6 21.8% 2.04 1.81 18.4% 16.4% 20.6% 4.8 5.0 2.1% 2.1% Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ Outperform 520.0 675.0 189 14.2 10.5 31.5% 2.61 2.54 20.4% 26.2% 24.8% 5.4 4.7 2.6% 7.7% Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ Outperform 1,060 1,200 686 18.0 14.5 24.7% 2.76 2.38 15.5% 16.6% 17.8% 9.7 9.4 1.0% 1.6% Indonesia average 14.2 12.1 22.0% 2.36 2.08 17.6% 18.0% 20.1% 5.9 5.6 1.7% 2.7% CH.
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