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Biogas in Swedish Transport – a Policy-Driven Systemic Transition

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Biogas in Swedish Transport – a Policy-Driven Systemic Transition Biogas in Swedish transport – a policy-driven systemic transition Tomas Lönnqvist Doctoral Thesis, 2017 KTH – Royal Institute of Technology School of Chemical Science and Engineering Department of Chemical Engineering Division of Energy Processes SE- 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden TRITA-CHE Report 2017:27 ISSN 1654-1081 ISBN 978-91-7729-389-7 Akademisk avhandling som med tillstånd av KTH i Stockholm framlägges till offentlig granskning för avläggande av teknisk doktorsexamen fredagen den 9 juni kl 13.00 i sal F3, KTH, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm. 2 Abstract The thesis analyzes the conditions for biogas in the Swedish transport sector. Biogas can contribute to the achievement of Sweden’s ambitious targets of decreased emissions of greenhouse gases and an increased share of renewables in the transport sector, a sector that encompasses the major challenges in the phase-out of fossil fuels. A bottom-up analysis reveals that the production of conventional biogas based on available feedstock can increase fourfold compared to current levels. Despite this, development has stagnated during recent years and there are several factors that have contributed to this. The use of biogas in transport has developed in niches strongly affected by policy instruments and in this thesis, the progress is understood as a policy- driven systemic transition. Biogas has (started to) become established at the regime level and has begun to replace fossil fuels. The major obstacles for continued biogas development are found to be the stagnated vehicle gas demand, the low predictability of Swedish policy instruments, and electric car development. Moreover, the current prolonged period of low oil prices has also contributed to a lack of top-down pressure. A large share of the cheap and easily accessible feedstock for conventional biogas production is already utilized and an increased use of vehicle gas could enable a commercial introduction of forest-derived methane. However, the technologies to produce forest-derived methane are still not commercial, although there are industrial actors with technological know-how. Future biogas development depends on how the policy framework develops. Policy makers should consider the dynamics of biogas as a young sociotechnical system where different system fronts develop at a varying pace. Currently the demand side is lagging behind. However, it is necessary to maintain predictable policy support throughout the entire biogas value chain, since the system fronts that lag can vary over time. The low predictability of Swedish policy instruments indicates that policy makers should exercise care in their design to create a more robust policy framework moving forward. Keywords: Transport biofuels, Biogas, Forest-derived methane, Policy, Actors, Multilevel perspective, Barriers and incentives, Biogas production potential i Sammanfattning I denna avhandling analyseras förutsättningarna för biogas i den svenska transportsektorn. Biogas kan bidra till att uppfylla Sveriges ambitiösa mål om minskade växthusgasutsläpp och en ökad andel förnybara bränslen i transportsektorn, den sektor där de största utmaningarna för att fasa ut fossila bränslen återfinns. En botten-upp-analys visar att produktionen av konventionell biogas baserat på tillgängliga råvaror kan öka fyrfaldigt jämfört med nuvarande nivåer. Trots detta har utvecklingen stagnerat under de senaste åren och det finns flera faktorer som har bidragit till detta. Biogasanvändningen i transport har utvecklats i nischer med starkt stöd av politiska styrmedel och biogasutvecklingen kan ses som en systemomställning driven av politiska målsättningar och styrmedel. Biogas har (börjat) etablera sig på en kommersiell marknad där fossila bränslen ersätts. De främsta hindren för en fortsatt utveckling av biogasen har funnits vara den stagnerade fordonsgasmarknaden, den låga förutsägbarheten för svenska styrmedel samt elbilsutvecklingen. Dessutom har den långa perioden av lågt oljepris medfört en avsaknad av ett uppifrån-och-ned-tryck för en omställning. En hög andel av de billiga och lättillgängliga råvarorna för konventionell biogasproduktion används redan och en ökad efterfrågan av fordonsgas kan möjliggöra en kommersiell introduktion av metan från skogsråvara. Teknikerna för att producera metan från skogsråvara emellertid ännu inte kommersiella, även om det finns aktörer med ett tekniskt kunnande. Biogasens framtid beror på hur det politiska ramverket utvecklas. Politiska beslutsfattare bör betrakta biogasens dynamik som ett ungt sociotekniskt system med systemfronter som utvecklas i olika takt. För närvarande ligger efterfrågan efter i utvecklingen. Dock är det viktigt att upprätthålla förutsägbara stöd från politiska styrmedel längs hela biogasens värdekedja, eftersom den systemfront som ligger efter kan variera över tid. Den låga förutsägbarheten för svenska styrmedel visar på vikten av att beslutsfattare framgent utformar ett robust politiskt ramverk. Nyckelord: Biodrivmedel, Biogas, Metan från skogsråvara, Policy, Aktörer, Multilevel perspective, Barriärer och incitament, Biogasproduktionspotential ii List of papers included in the thesis I. Lönnqvist, T., Silveira, S., Sanches-Pereira, A., 2013. Swedish resource potential from residues and energy crops to enhance biogas generation. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 21, 298–314. II. Lönnqvist, T., Sanches-Pereira, A., Sandberg, T., 2015. Biogas potential for sustainable transport – a Swedish regional case. Journal of Cleaner Production 108, 1105–1114. III. Sanches-Pereira, A., Lönnqvist, T., Gómez, M.F., Coelho, S.T., Tudeschini, L.G., 2015. Is natural gas a backup fuel against shortages of biogas or a threat to the Swedish vision of pursuing a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels? Renewable Energy 83, 1187–1199. IV. Lönnqvist, T., Anderberg, S., Ammenberg, J., Sandberg, T., Grönkvist, S. Stimulating biogas in the transport sector – an actor and policy analysis with supply side focus. Submitted to Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 2017. V. Ammenberg, J., Anderberg, S., Lönnqvist, T., Grönkvist, S., Sandberg, T. Biogas in the transport sector – a regional actor and policy analysis focusing on the demand side. To be submitted May 2017 to Resources, Conservation and Recycling. VI. Lönnqvist, T., Grönkvist, S., Sandberg, T., 2017. Forest-derived methane in the Swedish transport sector: A closing window? Energy Policy 105, 440–450. Related paper that was not included in the thesis VII. Lönnqvist, T., Sandberg, T., Birbuet, JC., Olsson, J., Espinosa, C., Thorin, E., Grönkvist, S. Large-scale biogas generation in Bolivia – a stepwise reconfiguration? Submitted to Journal of Cleaner Production 2017. iii Related conference papers Lönnqvist, T., Olsson, J., Espinosa, C., Birbuet, JC., Silveira, S., Dahlquist, E., Thorin, E., Persson, P-E., Lindblom, S., Khatiwada, D. , 2013. The potential for waste to biogas in La Paz and El Alto in Bolivia. 1st International Water Association Conference on Holistic Sludge Management, 2013, Västerås Sweden. Peck, P., Grönkvist, S., Hansson, J., Voytenko, Y., Lönnqvist, T. 2015. Investigating socio-technical and institutional constraints to development of forest-derived transport biofuels in Sweden: A Study design. 23rd European Biomass Conference (EUBSE). Sanches-Pereira, A., Lönnqvist, T., Tudeschini, L.G., 2015. Mapping the Stockholm vehicle gas supply chain using Network Theory to assess local upgraded biogas supply and demand relations. In: 5th International Workshop Advances in Cleaner Production. Universidade Paulista, Brazil, 2015 Other related publications Lönnqvist, T., Grönkvist, S., Sandberg, T., 2016. How can forest- derived methane complement biogas from anaerobic digestion in the Swedish transport sector? Report No 2015:11, f3 The Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Sweden. Available at www.f3centre.se. Peck, P. Grönkvist, S., Hansson, J., Lönnqvist, T., Voytenko, Y. 2016. Systemic constraints and drivers for production of forest- derived transport biofuels in Sweden. Report No 2016:09A and 2016:09B, f3 The Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Sweden. Available at www.f3centre.se. Lönnqvist, T., Ammenberg, J., Anderberg, S., Grönkvist, S., Sandberg, T. Biogas in the transport sector – an actor and policy analysis. To be submitted to f3 in May 2017 (co-authors currently in alphabetical order). Pacini, H., Khatiwada, D. & Lönnqvist, T. Tailor-made solutions: Small-scale biofuels and trade, Bridges Trade BioRes Review, ISSN 1996-9198, Vol. 4, nr 4, 10-11. 2010. iv Contribution of the thesis author to these papers I. I am the main author of this paper. II. I am the main author of this paper. Papers II and III are results of a collaboration with Alessandro Sanches-Pereira, who in this paper was responsible for the demand projections that are presented more in detail in Paper III. III. I am co-author of this paper and mainly responsible for analysis of the production potential which is presented more in detail in paper II. IV. I am the main author of this paper. Papers IV and V are results of a project collaboration with Jonas Ammenberg and Stefan Anderberg. Their analysis focused on the results from interviews on the demand side which are presented more in detail in Paper IV. V. I am co-author of this paper and responsible for the analysis of the supply side interviews, which is presented in more detail in Paper IV. I am also responsible for the project design that resulted in the two papers. VI. I am the main author of this
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