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Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains: Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policies”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No Please cite this paper as: Kowalski, P. et al. (2015), “Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains: Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policies”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 179, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5js33lfw0xxn-en OECD Trade Policy Papers No. 179 Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADE AND TRADE- RELATED POLICIES Przemyslaw Kowalski, Javier Lopez Gonzalez, Alexandros Ragoussis, Cristian Ugarte JEL Classification: F1, F2, F6 OECD TRADE POLICY PAPERS This paper is published under the OECD Trade Policy Paper series, which is designed to make available to a wide readership selected studies by OECD staff or by outside consultants. This series continues that originally entitled OECD Trade Policy Working Papers. This paper is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and the arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries. The publication of this document has been authorised by Ken Ash, Director of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate This paper and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. This paper has been declassified on the responsibility of the Working Party of the Trade Committee under the OECD reference number [TAD/TC/WP(2014)12/FINAL]. Comments on the series are welcome and should be sent to [email protected]. OECD TRADE POLICY PAPERS are published on www.oecd.org/trade This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the OECD and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. © OECD (2015) You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Abstract Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains: Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policies by Przemyslaw Kowalski, Javier Lopez Gonzalez, Alexandros Ragoussis and Cristian Ugarte Although global value chains (GVCs) are often considered a defining feature of the current wave of globalisation, little is known about: i) what drives GVC participation; ii) what the benefits associated to growing participation are; or iii) how developing countries engage and benefit from GVCs. This paper tackles these questions empirically. The evidence indicates there are important benefits to be had from wider participation in terms of enhanced productivity, sophistication and diversification of exports. Structural factors, such as geography, size of the market and level of development are found to be key determinants of GVC participation. Trade and investment policy reforms as well as improvements of logistics and customs, intellectual property protection, infrastructure and institutions can, however, also play an active role in promoting further engagement. A more in-depth analysis of GVC participation and policy context in five developing sub-regions in Africa, the Middle East and Asia highlights key differences and similarities, and can be a starting point for policy makers in the regions to assess their countries’ GVC engagement and to consider policy options. Key words: Global value chains; GVCs; intermediate inputs; upgrading; trade policy; investment; regional trade agreements; developing countries; East and Southern Africa; West and Central Africa; Middle East and North Africa; South Asia; South East Asia. JEL: F1, F2, F6 Acknowledgements This paper has benefitted from insightful comments and suggestions by Trudy Witbreuk and statistical assistance of Pascal Achard, Charles Cadestin and Clarisse Legendre. Valuable feedback and direction received from members of the OECD Working Party of the Trade Committee as well as colleagues at the ADB, AfDB, APEC Policy Unit, European Commission, ERIA, UNECA, UNESCAP, the OECD Secretariat and the World Bank are also gratefully acknowledged. The research was carried out with funding by the European Union. OECD TRADE POLICY PAPER N°179 © OECD 2015 PARTICIPATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADE AND TRADE-RELATED POLICIES – 3 Table of contents Abbreviations of names of countries and territories ........................................................................................ 5 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 7 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 11 Part I. What determines countries’ GVC participation? Evidence from trade in value added data ........................................................................................................................ 13 2. Cross-country differences in GVC participation ....................................................................................... 13 2.1 GVC participation and its measurement .......................................................................................... 13 2.2 Backward and forward links across countries and regions .............................................................. 14 2.3 What factors may be associated with GVC participation at the country level ................................. 17 3. A model-based investigation of cross-country variation in GVC participation rates ................................ 22 3.1 The data ............................................................................................................................................ 22 3.2 Benchmark econometric specification ............................................................................................. 23 3.3 Results from the benchmark specification ....................................................................................... 24 3.4 Assessing other policy factors .......................................................................................................... 30 4. GVC participation, productivity, specialisation and “upgrading” ............................................................. 31 4.1 Benefitting from value chain participation and the concept of “upgrading” .................................... 31 4.2 An estimation of benefits of GVC participation .............................................................................. 33 Part II. Global and regional value chains participation in Africa and Asia .......................................... 37 5. GVC participation in Africa and Asia: Evidence from the analysis of trade in value added data ............. 37 5.1 Trade policy ..................................................................................................................................... 38 5.2 Inward FDI openness ....................................................................................................................... 40 5.3 Other policy factors .......................................................................................................................... 42 6. The importance of intermediate merchandise inputs in key value chains in Africa and Asia ................... 49 6.1 Main trends in intra and extra-regional trade ................................................................................... 50 6.2 How has competitiveness evolved? ................................................................................................. 52 6.3 What role has been played by imported intermediate inputs? .......................................................... 55 6.4 What intermediate sourcing strategies have been adopted? ............................................................. 57 6.5 Regional orientation in processed intermediate products................................................................. 58 6.6 What role for FTAs? ........................................................................................................................ 59 6.7 Diversification .................................................................................................................................. 64 6.8 The importance of new products and new markets .......................................................................... 68 6.9 Survival of trade relationships ......................................................................................................... 70 7. What role do services play in GVC participation in Africa and Asia? ...................................................... 70 7.1 Importance of services in African and Asian economies ................................................................. 72 7.2 Services-related engagement in GVCs ............................................................................................. 77 7.3 Identifying policy options for enhancing integration of services in GVCs in selected countries .... 80 8. Conclusions and policy recommendations ...............................................................................................
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