Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date 16 February 2017 Hold HSBC Holdings Plc Forecast Change Asia Hong Kong Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 15 Feb 2017 (HKD) 67.70 Banking / Finance 0005.HK 5 HK HSI 0005 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 64.00 Banks ADR Ticker ISIN 52-week range (HKD) 67.70 - 45.80 HBC US4042804066 HANG SENG INDEX 23,995 Rate re-rating Stephen Andrews, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) - 2203 6191 Look East not West for rate sensitivity
[email protected] As discussed in our 'Capital Map' report last year, the bulk of HSBC's returns and shareholder value lies in the Asia franchise. When it comes to rising US$ David Lock interest rates, the majority of sensitivity to higher rates is also in Asia (HK balances are 3x those of the US IHC balance sheet). This note takes a closer Research Analyst look at the key sensitivities of the bank to interest rates, from a top-down, (+44) 20 754-11521 bottom-up and historical perspective. Overall we think that the recent share re-
[email protected] rating can be explained largely by expectations that HIBOR moves up steadily by c.150bps over the next 3 years. Our forecasts rise by 5-10%, reflecting Key changes higher NII. Our TP rises to 64HKD, but with limited catalysts we remain Hold. Price target 56.00 to 64.00 ↑ 14.3% Top down and bottom up - Asia is the key driver Net int margin 1.92 to 1.89 ↓ -1.3% HSBC's interim report shows the impact of a 100bps parallel shift in the yield (FYE) curve over a 12 month period as c.US$2.7bn annualised, or around 15% of Net profit 7,299.5 to ↓ -1.9% post-tax earnings.