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Savills Loughton Home Truths Savills Loughton Home Truths Tuesday 29 June 2021 Welcome and thank you for joining. You are on mute for the duration of the webinar. We will begin shortly. 1 Introducing today’s panel Andrew Perratt Lucian Cook James Lamb Natalie Mills Tim Phillips Head of Country Head of Residential Head of Office Residential Sales Country House Residential Research Loughton Loughton Department [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 07967 555 402 07967 555 418 07807 999 680 07790 832 625 07870 867 218 2 Residential Market Update Lucian Cook – Head of UK Residential Research 3 Anything but normal in the housing market 1st modern-day For whom a recession where reassessment of the economy Low preceding housing needs and housing price growth, and priorities market have ultra-low interest has essentially moved in rates overridden different May transactions Resulting in a economics directions 15% above market driven by normal but 15% those with down on the financial security average of the rather than those Annual house preceding 6 exposed to the Government While an price growth months economic fallout intervention on extended stamp running at jobs and duty holiday +10.9% to end of earnings provided a May according provided a sense of to the safety net urgency Nationwide Source: Nationwide, HMRC 4 Strong bounce back at the top end Properties marked as Sold Subject to Contract Whole Market £1m+ 200% 150% 2019 - 100% v same month 2017 month same v 50% 0% Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 5 Strong bounce back at the top end Properties marked as Sold Subject to Contract Whole Market £1m+ 200% 150% 2019 - 100% v same month 2017 month same v 50% 0% Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 6 At a more local level £1m+ agreed sales – first five months of the year 2019 2021 400 +64% 350 300 +94% 250 200 +152% 150 100 50 0 Waltham Chelmsford Uttlesford Redbridge Brentwood Tower Enfield Epping Forest Hackney Haringey Islington Forest Hamlets Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 7 Impact on Prices Quarterly Price Movement of Prime Suburban Property 5.0% Annual Price Growth 4.0% Short Boris bounce +2.1% 3.0% +10.0% All Prime Suburban 2.0% Post Brexit vote malaise -5.0% 1.0% Past 5 years 0.0% Market -1.0% reopened +6.6% All Prime Suburban -2.0% Source: Savills prime index, Q4 2020 8 Annual Price Growth in the locality +13.6% Suburban & town +10.5% Rural 9 Back to life, back to reality? Properties marked as Sold Subject to Contract Whole Market £1m+ 211% 200% 155% 153% 150% 2019 - 113% 100% v same month 2017 month same v 50% Less government support A substantial relaxation with tapered withdrawal of the of social distancing (and a rapid 0% stamp duty holiday improvement in the economy) Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 prov Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 10 Results of our June 2021 client survey +15% +18% net balance +35% more in their Under 40 committed to 50’s move in the next 6 months Compared to +24% +25% in their this time last 40’s year Given relaxation And +7% of social +20% distancing and 60 or over vaccine rollout in March Source: Savills Research Client and Applicant Surveys 11 Looking forward A prolonged Activity levels Meaning period of low mean a supply continued interest rates - demand demand to underpins the imbalance upsize & capacity for going into the relocate over price growth Autumn The 3rd 2021 over the lockdown has As stock medium term embedded shortages some of the begin to ease changed into 2022 The tapered lifestyle drivers withdrawal of With a Tempered by stamp duty will rebalancing the potential for remove some between urban, an increased of the urgency suburban and tax from the rural locations environment market 12 Our published forecasts 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5-year actual UK Mainstream +21% +7.3% +4.0% +5.0% +4.0% +3.5% +3.0% Prime Regional +21% +3.6% +5.0% +4.0% +3.5% +3.0% +3.5% Source: Savills Research Note: These forecasts apply to average values in the second hand market. New build values may not move at the same rate. 13 Thank you © Savills 2021 14 Local Market Update James Lamb - Head of Office, Savills Loughton Natalie Mills - Residential Sales, Savills Loughton 15 Our market Buyer Sales Multiple Guide price Buyers from registrations agreed offers achieved London +99% +61% 73% 98% 35% Source: Savills Data, 2021 vs 2019 16 Our market 2020 - 2021 . High demand for town and country properties . Proximity to open spaces and family . Correctly priced instructions generally have multiple bidders with guide prices often being exceeded . Many buyers have sold their own home and are currently renting Savills Residential Sales 2021 17 Sold properties Theydon Bois Guide £4.5 million 100% of guide price achieved Nazeing Park Guide £1.55 million 102% of guide price achieved Loughton Guide £1 million 108% of guide price achieved Chigwell Guide £2.25 million 107% of guide price achieved Savills Residential Sales 2021 18 SOLD: Monkhams Drive, Woodford Green Guide £2.15 million 19 Case study: Epping Road, Roydon . On the market since July 2018 . Rested from the market in March 2020 and re-launched in May 2020 . Three competing buyers in June . Sale fell through in December 2020 . Three further competing buyers in March 2021 . Sale agreed 4% over the guide price . Transaction completed in eight days Savills Residential Sales 2021 20 What does your money buy What does your money buy you in Loughton? you in London? • Spring Grove • Nile Street, Islington • Guide £1.55 million • Guide £1.495 million • 0.6 miles to the tube • 2 bedrooms • 4 bedrooms • Detached • Apartment • 2,475 sq ft • 1,508 sq ft • £626 per sq ft • £991 per sq ft Savills Residential Sales 2021 21 What is happening in the market circa £1m and below? 22 Sold properties Hazelwood Guide £800,000 100% of guide price achieved Boleyn Close Guide £835,000 102% of guide price achieved Longfield Guide £1 million 103% of guide price achieved Woodside Road Guide £1.15 million 100% of guide price achieved Savills Residential Sales 2021 23 SOLD: Palmerston Road Guide £1.25 million 24 Case study: Hilltop, Loughton . Listed with a local agent for six weeks with one low offer . Switched to Savills and attracted two competing buyers within two weeks . Sale exchanged at 100% of guide price within six weeks Savills Residential Sales 2021 25 What does your money buy What does your money buy you in Loughton? you in London? • Hazelwood • Long & Waterson Apts, Hackney • Guide £800,000 • Guide £815,000 • 0.6 miles to the tube • 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms • 4 bedrooms • Garage and off street parking • Apartment • 1,450 sq ft • 849 sq ft • 551 per sq ft • £959 per sq ft Savills Residential Sales 2021 26 Thank you © Savills 2021 Q&A 28.
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