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OPEC, Oil, and Our Future

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OPEC, Oil, and Our Future The UCSD Guardian Univcrsit} of California. "ian Diego Volume .18. Numher 20 lhur... da\,. March 10. )~X:J OPEC, oil, and our future By KEVIN WALSH outside of OPEC are realizing the oil markct. Wh\ dId OPI~l mean that pe() p it' u"e all Iran I not slmpl~ an artIfact of The collapse of the BreLLon that their prosperity depends reduce Its productIon and not IndIgenous and !Ion OI'I~l Khf)mcni coming to jJl)wt'r Woods system and its fixed on other countries. Many take action to mamtalll Ih "'Ollrn's of supply up unt 11 f he Thl" clash alst) t!)llk plan' exchange rates paved the way problems and questions face market share by redUCing Ih ma'lmUnl until they S\\' lng lX't \\ el'n the Shal. of Iran and for the Organization of the world in the coming year~: prices? Do you see primal'll) ()\ertoOPEC And .asaresult. the Saudi ... Then' are tJIlll Petroleum Exportmg Coun­ the stabilit y of the countries of market forces at pia}. or IS it when demand falls. \·ou .... t'!. pmple \\ hI) claim the 'hah. at tri s (OPEC) to raise oil price~ the Middle East. So\iet more the case of market force" that the demand for OPf'..C !)11 \'t1rilJu. time~. threatened the dramatically in 197:3. At thi~ behavior in this area. and the coupled to poittlCal forces? falb 1l10"t . teeply. So. the fir .... t Saudi \\ nh IlJllitan (JI' otht'r point the world economy importance of maintaining typ{'~ of repn~aJ.... It "IS hard tf) entered a phase f)f extraordi­ adequate level ' of investment tell If that I'" ,rue. It i nary instablity. In the absence in alternative energ)- sources. l'l'rtainlv trut' that the, audh of firm exchange rates, What is absolutely clear is that Wl'J'l' \ ~I'\ carpf u I a bOll t the governments afforded them­ secure energy supplies are the Shalt. Ct;rtall1l\,. tltl're I'" no selves high budget deficits, key to growt h. doubt that in 1!173 .• fJf which were financed through For the past several weeks. examplt" \\ hUI the price oi oil an expansionary monetary representati\,es of OPEC have \q~nt from .~:1 ph t()'l~ pb. tlte policy. A huge Eurodollar been meeting almo~t daily in SaudI .... \\ anted hl prIce to go market was created wit h the order to establish acceptable roughly to. 0 and th' lrdJ1lan surplus oil dollars inve~ted at oil pnces and levels of produc­ \\ anted to go to '16 () Ihl'\ short ·term rate~, allowing the tion to be allowed by each plit thl' price at 1~ accumulation of unpreced n· OPEC member. The follo\'v'ing Tht,"'t' la P,·... t lOr: place a tcd International debts. Thus, interVIew WIt h Professor Peter numher of tlml· ..... The r(Jot" are the Industrialized countries Cowher was cond ucted on fundamentall\ bt'cau t' the experienced only a small part March 3rd for the Guardian by IranIan haH' a much largt·r of the increase in oil pri e,;. Kevin Walsh. Professor populatltJn. and a grealt'r The real burden fell on the Cowhey has been a member of chance of di\t:r::.ifying away developing countries, whose UCSD's Department of from a oIl economIC' deq:lup· term of trade great ly Pol itical Science since 1976. ment. The Khomeni regime dete r iora t e d . Now. t h e He is the author of The stIli li\es with the legacy of a commercia l bank of the Problem 0/ Plenty: Energy large populatIOn. but. of ind ustrialized cou ntrie are Policy and I nternational ~ cour"e. its economic ambitlOn~ threatened by high interna· Politics (UC Pres 1982) and co­ ~ ar Some\\ hat different in tiona l indebtedness and editor of Pro/it and the Pursuit terms of ... trattgy. although it~ insolvency. 0/ Energy: World Energy mihtary budget docsn't ~t'em The second oi l price shock of Markets and Government am ~mall r. n. t here are 1979-80 cou ld not bedealt with Regulation in the Next Decade natural tensions no matter in the same way. After a (We. tview Press 1982). Mr. v,-hat. and the Khomenl decade of global inflation, the Wa lsh is also the Editor in dispute \\ Ith SaudI Arabia world is in a deep economic Chief of Politjoumal. Uc. D's now takes on at lea. t t \\'0 tlt ht'r rece. sion, the wor ,t since the undergraduate journal of the overtones. One i.., he much· 1930". The oil price increase of social sciences. dlsru .... ed ideologIcal qu';~t illn 197980 is the main cause of Gu a rdian: In 1979· 1980. d .; 1)\ er \ t'rslon ... of 113m. \\ hi h I thIs. Iran and Iraq curtailed \....~~ _ w1l1 n()t (omment on. The present (Jil glut is production of oil. resulting in a - ~ ~ 3' Thc(Jthefchml'n \lin I" tha. rai~ing hopes that balance of temporar) shortage of - , dunng till' timt'nl th('('ollap .... e pay ments problems will ease. supplies and allowing OPEC to Peter Cowhe~: Pol It ICS I"; t hll1g to understand I~ that t ht' 1)1' Irantan and IraqI otl e'port "' . consumer pnces and inflation raise prices to $3~ p b. This about margll1 111 terms of rhe in the importance of non ~audl ArabIa c1ramatlcalh vvill drop. and that the created a !,TJ'eat incentive to whether price .... are gOll1g to be OPEL oil supplies Is incrl'a .... l'd Ib sharc of the purchasing power released increase prod uct ion. especially $31 plb (per barrel) or $2:1 p b. somewhat due to greater \\(nld 011 market - tIlt' tt) al will spark new growth. The by producers outside of OPEC. 25 or 20 or whatever number productIOn. but primarily :-hare of the markt't It prospect of falling oil prices is Presently. there is an \' 0 u c h () 0 S e . \\' h i chI s because demand Ira ... plumme· controlled. A good deal of the a sign of hope for some increased supply and a determIned bv the nature of ted so much that OPEC's oil Is fIght in the last lweht'll1onth ... count ries, bu t a cause of reduced demand. OPEC's technology and forces of the less necessan for consumers. ha" 1X'l'n \\ it h the Irantan ... concern to others. At last. oil market share has decreased by market place. but there is Now YOU rna\ ask. a .... \'ou in"I"tll1g that tht: :audl~ producing nations inside and one·third to less than h"lf of some margin beyond t he forces did. what about OP1(('... permanently CLlt bach tlwir of the market place that deClSlOll to keep prices thIs "hare of the market. Thl' OPEC COUNTRIES: RESERVES AND PRODUCTION represents the possibllty for hIgh; shouldn't they ha\c been SaudIS an' reqstlOg. collusion or strategy among cut before? There is G: HO\\(,'\'t'r . the ,'audl· .... Proved Productlon(b) mIllion b d countries to mampulate the substantIal e\ldence th-at production has decreased a Reserves(a) prices. and it is that margin SaudI ArabIa re~lsted ha\ 109 great deal. by one hali. and Bn . bls Potential 1982 1985 1990 2000 that OPEC 'Uses. That IS no pnces go to s:~~ p b - t hI .... I'" no t he\' are barely mahlOg enough S. ArabIa 162 .4 10.5 6.5 6 .0 65 0 secret They lost t ha t ba It Ie In per day from t heIr oil re\ cmf(' .... Iran 55.3 3.0 \.9 3.5 U 40 different than most areas of Iraq 41.0 1.5 09 3.0 ~ 5 2.5 politics ancl economics. a sene .... of i:lashes m 1979·, () to met't in-house cust... , 1 1\ Kuwait 64 .2 2.5 07 I 2 I 5 I 5 PolitIcal decislOn::-. usuall\' Once the price ... \\ere there. "l'enh that there IS mort til tl1 ' UAE 32 3 2.5 I 2 I 8 2.0 2 5 change margll1s and the~ ' hO\\l'\er. the :audl'" were cllnfllct ' hllUld m ort' Qatar H 0.6 03 05 0.' o ~ commItted to holdlllg them. as con .... lderatl()n Iw gl\t'n to the Neutral Zone change who benefIts 5.8 0.6 0 .3 0 .5 0.4 02 Now. if you l<XJk at the t he\ haH' alwa\ s becn 1.... lamie side of the clll1fhcl. or Total above 364 4 21.2 11.8 16 S 17.'1 190 picture of "u-ppl~ and demand, com'mllted to holdlllg tht' pnn' is it simply a matter offlghtln Venezuela 21 S 24 \.9 2.0 2 (1 I 5 the mnst Important thing IS of ot! once It goc:-. up. And a tor a greatl'r pun'ntage oj a N Igeria 16.7 24 U 20 20 I S that demand has slmpl\ gllod deal of .KIt\ It \ 10 OPEL reduced marht't LIbya 21 5 I -; S 20 1.2 I 7 I plummeted . lost of the ha" bl't'll promIsed on the fal·t PC: Then h ob\·lou ... h a IndoneSIa 9.S I 6 l,\ 1.6 I 8 I 4 that Pl'Oplt, e'pected \\'orld fight about shan'.... oi tllt' Algena 94 10 0 .7 09 07 Os change in the demand for Gabon 05 02 0.2 0 .2 0. 1 01 OPEC oil i!'> not a function of ren)\er~ to begll1 much faster.
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