UNCHARTED WATERS Navigating Stock Market Volatility in a Coronavirus World
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
UNCHARTED WATERS Navigating Stock Market Volatility in a Coronavirus World Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee Presentation description: places current shocks in a historical perspective, describes how emotions affect decision‐making ability, and provides three strategies to help investors live with market volatility. 1 What’s Happening in the Markets? LAST 10 YEARS S&P 500 Index Cumulative Return Avg Annual Return Mar 31, 2010–Mar 31, 2020 10.53% $40,000 TODAY $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of any Franklin Templeton fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: © Morningstar 2020. Franklin Templeton Capital Market Insights Group. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. 2 Slide objective: review how the market has behaved over the last 10 years. • With all the events in the news and related market volatility, investors may be wondering, “how are these events impacting my investments?” [click mouse]: • This chart shows the growth of the S&P 500 index over the past 10 years through March 31, 2020. • The S&P 500 Index measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Although investors can not directly invest in an index, the S&P 500 Index is seen by many as a representation of the US stock market which is why we will be referencing it throughout this presentation. [click mouse]: • The average annual return of the S&P 500 index over the last 10 years as of 3/31/2020, which includes the current crisis, has been10.53%. • As you can see, up until recently, we’ve been fortunate to experience a bull market and some investors, who’ve just starting investing recently, have never experienced a significant downturn. • It’s not surprising that investor emotions are running high. [click mouse]: • Here we are today. [click mouse] to go to next slide and zoom in on this timeframe. 2 TODAY S&P 500 Index Cumulative Return MAR. 29, 2020 December 31, 2019 – March 31, 2020 Trump announces CDC guidelines will be extended 1 DEC. 31, 20191 MAR. 11, 2020 through April 30th 4 Coronavirus first reported WHO declared COVID-19 a from Wuhan, China pandemic; DJIA enters bear territory MAR. 25, 2020 UN issued a $2B Global Humanitarian response plan1 FEB. 24, 20202 JAN. 30, 20201 Coronavirus fears send US MAR. 23, 2020 WHO declares international public stocks tumbling; Steepest point Fed announces new measures health emergency as cases are decline since Dec. 2018 to support economy5 reported outside of China MAR. 12, 20203 President Trump announces EU travel ban; S&P 500 index enters bear territory 12/31/19 1/15/20 2/1/20 2/15/20 3/1/20 3/12/20 3/31/20 This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of any Franklin Templeton fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Sources: © Morningstar 2020. 1. World Health Organization - International Diseases - Coronavirus Disease 2019. 2.Foxbusiness-markets-stocks –Feb 24, 2020. 3. NYTimes article- coronavirus-timeline. 4. Donaldjtrump.com-timeline: the Trump Administration’s Decisions Actions to Combat the Coronavirus. 5. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases. © Morningstar 2020. Franklin Templeton Capital Market Insights Group. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. 3 Slide objective: review how recent shocks are impacting the market. [click mouse] • 12/31/2019 – Coronavirus disease first reported from Wuhan, China. • 1/20/2020 – Other countries, including the United States, confirmed cases. [click mouse] • 1/30/2020 – The World Health Organization (WHO) declared an international public health emergency as cases are reported outside China. Three days later, the first coronavirus death was reported outside China. [click mouse] • 2/24/2020 – The US stock market plummeted over coronavirus fears, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced the worst day in two years. [click mouse] • 3/11/2020 – The WHO declared COVID‐19 a pandemic and the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered bear market territory. • 3/12/2020 ‐ The S&P 500 Index enters bear market territory after President Trump announces travel ban on most of Europe which raised the prospect of a worldwide economic slowdown. [click mouse]: • 3/23 – The Federal Reserve announces new measures to support economy. [click mouse]: • 3/25 – The UN issues a $2B Global Humanitarian response plan. [click mouse]: • 3/29 –Trump announces CDC guidelines will be extended through April 30th. • The combination of the coronavirus outbreak and oil price reductions is unprecedented, and it may be too early to tell how this will impact the economy. • However, we do know that volatility can cause investors to act on their emotions and that lessons learned from the past can help in navigating these “uncharted waters.” 3 Agenda • Current Shocks in Historical Perspective • What’s Going on in Our Heads • Living with Market Volatility 4 Slide objective: review the agenda. Today we will cover: • Current shocks in historical perspective • What’s going on in our heads • Living with market volatility Let’s get started. 4 Current Shocks in a Historical Perspective 5 Slide objective: to put current shocks into historical perspective. • While most investors know the market goes through cycles, it’s in times like these, when markets are stormy, that emotions are running high. • A historical view, focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies, can help put current events into perspective. • While the past is not predictive of the future, it does offer valuable perspective. Transition: Let’s go look at the past. 5 Bull and Bear Markets S&P 500 Index Bull and Bear Markets (Jan 30, 1970 – Mar 31, 2020) +16% 1 w. 16,000 3/23/2020- +529% 3/31/2020 10 yr., 11 mo. 3/9/2009-2/19/2020 12,000 +818% +121% 5 yr. 12 yr., 10 mo. 10/9/2002-10/9/2007 11/30/1987-9/4/2000 8,000 +845% 13 yr. +53% 9/30/1974-9/29/1987 4,000 3 yr., 6 mo. 1/30/1970-1/30/1973 -43% -30% -47% -55% -34% 0 19701973 1976 1979 19811984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2019 This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of any Franklin Templeton fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: © Morningstar 2020. Franklin Templeton Capital Market Insights Group. Bear Market is defined as a 20% drawdown from a peak to low. Calculations based on daily returns. Supporting data / table from Morningstar Direct / Presentation Studio. The calculations do not reflect any Franklin Templeton Funds. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. 6 Slide objective: show that bull markets have lasted longer than bear markets. • This chart shows the growth of the S&P 500 index since 1970. It illustrates the history of bull and bear markets. [click mouse]: • In this illustration, a bear market is defined as a 20% decline from a peak. [click mouse]: • A bull market starts when the previous contraction has reached its maximum drawdown and continues until another 20% decline or more. • The recent market contraction, by above definition, ended on 3/23/2020. However, its still to early to tell how long this crisis will last and when and what kind of recovery may follow. • Take a look at the big picture, can you draw any conclusions? • As you can see bull markets have lasted longer compared to bear markets and the average gain during a bull market was larger than the average loss during a bear market. 6 6 16/04/2020 16:27 Bull Markets Average growth: +396.9% 7 years, 4 months Bear Markets Average fall: -42% 13 months Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: © Morningstar 2020. Franklin Templeton Capital Market Insights Group. Bear Market is defined as a 20% drawdown from a peak to low. Calculations based on daily returns. Supporting data / table from Morningstar Direct / Presentation Studio. The calculations do not reflect any Franklin Templeton Funds. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. 7 Slide objective: show how bull markets have historically lasted longer than bear markets. • In fact over this period, the average bull market rose 396.9% and lasted 7 years, 4 months while the average bear market fell ‐42% and lasted 13 months. Insert Lit Code Here 7 Market Declines are Part of Investing S&P 500 Index Over the Last 50 Years 1970–March 2020 Size Of -5% -10% -15% -20% Decline or more or more or more or more Avg. EVERY EVERY EVERY EVERY Frequency 10 MONTHS 2 YEARS 4 YEARS 8 YEARS Last AUG 2019 DEC 2018 DEC 2018 MAR 2020 Occurrence This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of any Franklin Templeton fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: © Morningstar 2020, Standard and Poor’s. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. 8 Slide objective: market downturns happen frequently but don’t last forever. • This history of bulls and bears tells us that market declines are just a part of investing.