INSIGHT DECEMBER 2019 How does your garden grow? A stock take on planning for the Government’s Garden Communities programme Lichfields is the pre-eminent planning and development consultancy in the UK We’ve been helping create great places for over 50 years.

Cover Image lichfields.uk © CNS/Airbus 2019 Executive summary

Large-scale new developments have a long-established role in 1. Large-scale development projects can take a long helping to meet housing needs, and have at times received formal time to begin delivering. By its very nature, the Government support. The latest iteration – Garden Communities – Garden Communities programme would not be was launched in 2014, and the programme now includes 49 projects expected to reach critical mass of delivery until the extending across all regions of . 2030s. It is only at this point that one can draw firm conclusions about its efficacy in bringing forward Lichfields has reviewed all 49 projects to help establish an evidence new homes. baseline for the programme. We find it is currently set to provide 403,000 homes, up to 182 new primary schools and 56 secondary 2. The programme plays a dual role: firstly, the Garden schools, and 600 or more hectares of employment land - supporting Community designation helps Councils and 1.3m additional jobs over its construction period to 2050. Areas with developers, as Government endorses the promotion Garden Communities have been allocated an estimated £1.35bn of of strategic sites through the plan-making process, Housing Infrastructure Funding (HIF) spend, around 40% of the total while simulatenously - via planning inspectors - so far. playing a role in scrutinising the acceptability of such projects. Secondly, it supports implementation Based on an indicative trajectory using industry benchmarks, we and delivery of large extant permissions where the conclude the programme is unlikely to be delivering homes at principle has been established, through funding and scale until after the next electoral cycle, but by the 2030s could be ‘soft’ measures such as advice and brokerage. delivering up to 16,000 dwellings per annum based on typical build rates, and potentially more where government support enables it. 3. There is no readily-available body of evidence to help understand the nature of the programme, its scale, However, none of this is certain. Garden Communities status is what success will look like, and what metrics one not a ‘golden ticket’ to securing planning permission (or indeed should use to measure its progress, effectiveness and Government funding). Only a third have a permission and or an additionality. We have plugged this gap with some allocation in an adopted plan. Another third, are in emerging plans of the core facts and figures in this report, which can and a full 30% are yet to achieve formal planning status. This means hopefully provide a baseline for future evaluation. two thirds still need to establish the principle of development But there remains little basis at present to make any and are therefore subject to ongoing levels of planning risk. Such comparative assessment of the quality of places that will risks have already resulted in delays to some schemes, often due to be created and to what extent they adopt the “key unanswered questions over whether they are deliverable. The onus qualities” identified in the Government Prospectus; is on promoters and local authorities to assemble the evidence-base necessary to pass the key NPPF test of soundness. 4. The programme is heterogenous in terms of the types of development that it supports. Whilst the We find that many Local Plans rely heavily on Garden Communities, Government Prospectus did provide some criteria where they are allocated, to sustain their housing requirements for appraising bids (including with reference to over the next fifteen years. As such, any delays risk significantly Garden City Principles), the context, location undermining the plan-led system, and could open the door to and forms of development emerging through the speculative applications on unallocated sites. This highlights the programme do not appear to follow a particular importance of authorities being confident over deliverability when template. This diversity reflects that the proposals writing their plans. are locally-led, and may not itself be undesirable – We draw four conclusions on how to measure the success of the but it does raise questions of expectation – is there programme: a sufficiently clear understanding of what a ‘Garden Community’ is intended to represent? Cover Image © CNS/Airbus 2019 Key 49 designated Garden Communities figures homes proposed within designated Garden Communities programme, accommodating up to a 403,000 million residents

is the economic impact of the programme, £87 bn supporting 1.3m jobs

of employment land provision identified on 31 projects; grossed up to the programme, could 600 hectares accommodate 350,000 jobs

homes are allocated in post-NPPF 2012 adopted and emerging Local Plans (45%), while 81,000 have outline planning 189,000 permission and 14,000 have been completed 182 primary schools and 56 secondary schools (up to)

of Garden Communities (23 of 49) had existing 47% allocations or permissions at the time of designation

is the average proportion of adopted and emerging Local Plan housing requirements met by Garden Community allocations 30% in those local authority areas; in one area it is as high as 67%

homes per annum from 2025 until 2050, 10-16,000 c.4,000 homes per annum up to 2024

of Garden Community homes are in standalone new settlements, the rest being in settlements linked to 35% existing towns (32%), and urban extensions (33%)

of Garden Community homes are within 800m of a rail 8% station, a third of homes were within 2km INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

01 Introduction

The idea of large-scale new settlements has a long history in Britain, with philanthropically-motivated new communities preceding the 1946 New Towns Act, and the ‘Eco Towns’ programme of the 2000s. The latest iteration - “Garden Communities” - was introduced in December 2014 by the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG, then DCLG). Cumulatively, the 49 Garden Communities now identified in England propose around Contents 403,000 new homes and could accomodate up to a million residents. They comprise 33 garden villages of between 1,500 and 10,000 01 Introduction 01 homes, 15 garden towns of over 10,000 homes each, and one garden 02 What are Garden 04 city of over 15,000 homes at Ebbsfleet, the latter overseen by an Communities? Urban Development Corporation as its local planning authority1. 03 The current Garden 05 Under the programme, these projects are led by Local Planning Communities Programme Authorities (LPAs) and the private sector working together, with 04 Planning Progress: 06 government providing “a tailored package of Government support that Local Plan process includes resource funding, expert delivery advice from Homes England and cross -government brokerage to resolve barriers to delivery.”2 Planning tools for delivery Planning permissions Up to 3.3m new homes need to be identified in local plans over the next five years3 so these projects – and future new settlement Completions proposals - are likely to be a continuing feature of the planning Delivery trajectory landscape. The NPPF 2019 places a new emphasis on larger scale 05 The local context: 14 development, stating that “the supply of a large numbers of new homes can often be best achieved through planning for larger scale development, Location characteristics such as new settlements or significant extensions to existing villages and Self containment towns”. However, it also notes the long timescales implicit, requiring Educational provision a ‘realistic assessment’ of these “given the lead-in times for large scale Economic impact sites”, as well as the need for “the delivery of large-scale developments… 20 to extend beyond an individual plan period”. It is therefore helpful to 06 Conclusions understand how the Garden Communities – as signature projects Appendix 1: Data table 22 benefitting from Government support – are progressing, particularly if that model of development is to be replicated more widely in the 1 The Ebbsfleet Development Corporation was established in legislation next generation of local plans. under The Ebbsfleet Development Corporation (Area and Constitution) Order 2015, and decides planning applications, provides pre-application In this report we look at all 49 of the Government’s designated advice and carries out planning enforcement in its area, but does not Garden Communities to give a planning-focused overview of the have plan-making powers. 2 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/ programme; the progress and characteristics of each Garden system/uploads/attachment_data/file/734145/Garden_Communities_ Community project; its relationship with housing demand and supply Prospectus.pdf in the local area; and how the current crop of Garden Communities 3 Based on applying the Standard Method and a 15-year minimum plan period, having taken into account the scale of housing allocations in will be delivered in relation to the Local Plan process. This can provide current adopted Local Plans and their review timescales. Adopting the baseline for an objective review of the performance of the the 300,000 per annum ambition, up to 9m homes could be required by 2050. In that context, the 403,000 identified in current Garden programme as it is implemented over coming decades. Communities are small scale.

1 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Figure 1: Tree chart showing Garden Community projects by size

Aylesbury 15,000

Harlow & Gilston 24,000

Ebbsfleet 15,000

North Essex 43,000

Exeter 20,000 Grazeley 15,000

North Uttlesford Didcot 33,000 18,500 15,000

Note: Project details are based on a review of various data sources and may be subject to change.

Source: Lichfields analysis

2 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Figure 1: Tree chart showing Garden Community projects by size

Tewkesbury Ashchurch Basingstoke Otterpool Park Meecebrook 10,195 10,060 10,000 10,000 Taunton 14,000

Welborne Culm Shapley Heath 6,000 5,000 5,000

North East Chelmsford South 9,850 Skerningham Dalton Barracks Dunton Hills Godstone 4,000 Bicester 4,500 4,500 4,000 13,000

Borough Chilmington Whetstone Spitalgate West of Green Pastures Heath Elvington Infinity Gardens 7,250 3,500 3,700 3,339 3,200 3,000

St George’s Dunsfold Hemel Barracks Longcross Park Eynsham 11,000 2,215 1,718 2,600 2,200 North Dorchester Long Marston 7,000 Tresham Handforth 3,500 Cyber Central Burtree 1,500 1,650 3,000 2,310 Halsnead Biggleswade 1,589 1.500

St Cuthberts Newton Abbot Bailrigg Threemilestone Berinsfield West Cardaze South Seaham 10,325 6,806 3,500 2,700 2,300 1,500 1,500

3 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW? 02 What are Garden Communities?

We do not intend to delve into the history of the by the then Department of Environment6 term ‘Garden Community’ in any great detail, identified 120 proposed schemes in various 49 but it is helpful to have some context for the stages of progression, most of them speculative current programme. and all privately-promoted. designated Garden Communities Between 1946 and 1970, 22 New Towns In 2007, the Government committed to totalling 403,000 were designated, many of which delivered building ten new ‘Eco Towns’, and a new homes upwards of 25,000 homes each up to 1991, Planning Policy Statement was published in when the programme closed4. Since the New 2009 to guide their development. However, Town programme, the conception of new and just four sites were eventually approved, after expanded towns has tended to be privately- significant local opposition at consultation 33 led; Cramlington in Northumberland was stage7. Initially, only one of these designations, Garden Villages a housebuilder-led New Town, supported Northstowe in Cambridge, was carried forward of 1,500 to 9,999 by the county council and underpinned by by the Coalition Government, but Northstowe homes state planning powers. South Woodham does not form part of the current Garden Ferrers in Essex was similarly supported Communities programme. More recently, by the use of Comprehensive Development both the ‘eco-town’ at North West Bicester Area (CDA) powers. In the 1980s, a number in Oxfordshire and the St Austell and Clay 15 of house builders combined as Consortium Country Ecotown in Cornwall have been Garden Towns of Developments Ltd to launch a privately- rolled forward into a Garden Town and Garden 10,000 to 43,000 initiated (and controversial) programme of up to Village, respectively. Arguably, the new town homes 15 ‘new country towns’ across the wider South at Ebbsfleet is also an extension of policy from East, each of around 5,000 dwellings; none that time. 1 were built5. A 1992 review of New Settlements Garden City of Figure 2: Timeline of Garden Community designations 15,000 homes Ebbsfleet Bicester Didcot, North Essex Basingstoke, Towns Garden 5 Otterpool Park Town Garden 14 villages, 3 towns Town Garden Exeter Garden Communities19

Mar Dec Dec Mar Nov Jan Mar May Jun 2014 2014 2015 2016 2016 2017 2019 2019 2019

4 NIC (2017), Planning and Delivery Analysis Source: Lichfields analysis 5 The Foxley Wood proposal was considered at a public inquiry and initially supported by then- Secretary of State the Rt Hon Nicholas Ridley MP, before being refused by his successor Chris Patten MP in 1990 6 DoE (1992) Alternative Development Patterns: New Settlements, HMSO 7 https://theecologist. org/2012/apr/02/what-has- happened-uks-eco-towns

4 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR 03 GARDEN GROW? The Current Garden Communities Programme

The current crop of Garden Communities with proposals for between 1,500 and 9,999 in 1. Bicester are located throughout the country, with at Garden Villages, and Garden Towns as large 2. Didcot least one Garden Community in each English as 43,000 homes (spread across multiple sites 3. North Essex 4. Basingstoke region8, designated by government for funding in North Essex); and their broad placemaking 5. North Northamptonshire and support. The term has broadened to define ambitions. 6. Otterpool Park quite different major projects, from ‘the first This heterogeneity suggests that the 7. Long Marston modern garden city’, Ebbsfleet, with 15,000 8. Eyesham designation reflects the scale and ambition homes, designated in 2014; to a series of 9. Deenethorpe of delivery, rather than urban form, self- extensions to the existing town of Basingstoke. 10. Culm containment, or other morphological and urban 11. Welborne In 2017, seven interrelated projects at design issues traditionally referred to as Garden 12. West Carclaze varying stages in the planning process were City principles. 13. Dunton Hills designated as a single Garden Community in 14. Spitalgate Heath The nomenclature presents some issues in Northamptonshire, some urban extensions, 15. Halsnead that the larger Garden Villages of 4,000- some functionally linked to existing 16. Longcross 5,000 homes would be - on most measures 17. Bailrigg settlements, and some freestanding. The most - comprable in size to existing settlements that 18. Infinity recent round of announcements in June 2019 are comparable referred to as towns. 19. St Cuthberts added a further 19 Garden Communities, which 20. Handforth share few characteristics save for their scale; 21. Aylesbury 22. Taunton 23. Harlow & Gilston

Figure 3: Map of 49 Garden Communities 1. Bicester 24. Grazeley 2. 1D. iBdiceostter 25. Hemel 3. 2N. oDridthco Et ssex 4. 3B. aNsoinrtghs Etsoskeex 26. Uttlesford 5. 4N. oBratshin gNstoorktehamptonshire 5. North Northamptonshire 27. Tewkesbury Ashchurch 6. Otterpool Park GARDEN COMMUNITIES 6. Otterpool Park GARDEN COMMUNITIES 7. Long Marston Total number of units 7. Long Marston 28. Meecebrook Total number of units 8. 8E. yEnysnhshaamm 9. 9D. eDeeneneetthhoorpee 29. Exeter >15,000 19 10. Culm >15,000 (! !( 10. Culm ! 19 (! 30. Berinsfield !( (! ! !( 44 11. Welborne ! 44 11.12W. Welebsot Crnareclaze 31. Borough Green !( 10,000 - 15,000 !(!( 32 12.13W. Deusnt tCoan rHcillalsze 10,000 - 15,000 !( 42 !( !( 32 13.14D. uSnpittoalnga Htei lHlseath 32. Burtree !( 7,500 - 9,999 42 14.15S. pHitaalslngeaatde Heath 16. Longcross 15. Halsnead 33. Chilmington 7,500 - 9,999 17. Bailrigg !( ! 5,000 - 7,499 17 !( !( 16.18L. oInfgincirtoy ss ! 47 34. Cyber Central !( !( 17.19B. aSitl rCiugtghberts (! 5,000 - 7,499 2,500 - 4,999 17 ! !( 18.20I.nfHiannitdyforth 35. Dalton Barracks !( ! 47 !( 1,500 - 2,499 !( 19.21S. tA Cyuletshbubreyrts ! 2,500 - 4,999 22. Taunton 36. Dunsfold Park 20.23H. aHnadrlofowr t&h Gilston !( 1,500 - 2,499 !(15 21.24A. yGleraszbeulyry 20 37. Biggleswade !( 22.25T. aHuenmtoeln 23.26H. aUrtltolewsf o&rd Gilston 38. Newton Abbot 15 27. Tewkesbury Ashchurch !( 24.28G. rMazeeclyebrook 39. North East Chelmsford !( 20 14 25.29H. eEmxeteelr 28 18 !( !( !( 26.30U. tBtelerisnfsofiredld 40. North Dorchester !(45 27.31T. eBwokroeusgbhu Grrye eAnshchurch 41. Shapely Hill !(48 28.32M. Beuerctreeberook 14 33. Chilmington 18 !( 29.34E. xCeytbeerr Central 42. Skerningham !28 !( ( 30. Berinsfield ! 35. Dalton Barracks 5 !( 36. Dunsfold Park 43. South Godstone 7 45 31. Borough Green !( 37 !( !( 37. Biggleswade 48 32. Burtree 44. South Seaham !2(7 38. Newton Abbot !(!( 1 3 33. Chilmington !( 2!6( 39. North East Chelmsford 45. St George’s Barracks 34 8!( ! 34. Cyber Central ! 25 ( 40. North Dorchester 21 ! !(!( !(23 !(39 2 35 !(!( 35.41D. aSlhtaopnle By aHreraatchks 5 !( 46. Threemilestone !(!(30 !(13 36.42D. uSnkesrfnoinldg hPaamrk 7 9 37 43. South Godstone !( !( 49 37. Biggleswade 47. West of Elvington !(24 !( !( 44. South Seaham 27 16 !( 38. Newton Abbot (! !(41 45. St George's Barracks 48. Whetstone Pastures ! 1 !(3 !( 4 ! 31 !( !( !(26(! !(33 39.46N. oThrtrhee Emailsets tCohnelmsford !43 6 34 8!( ! 47. West of Elvington ! 25 ( 40. North Dorchester 21 ! !( 49. Ebbsfleet 22 !(! 2336 !39 ! !(! !( !( 48. Whetstone Pastures !( 2 !( !( 41. Shapley Heath 35 !! 49. Ebbsfleet !(10 (!!( 30 !(11 !(13 42. Skerningham 4!0 ! !( !29 9 43. South Godstone !( 49 !( ! !(38 !(24 !( 44. South Seaham 16 !( 45. St George's Barracks !(12 !(41 46 4 !( 31 !( !( !( !(33 46. Threemilestone 43 !(6 47. West of Elvington 22 !( 36 48. Whetstone Pastures !(10 !(11 49. Ebbsfleet 40 !( 8 English region as defined Source: Lichfields analysis !(29 by the former Government !(38 Office Regions !(12 !(46 5 and_cities_archived.pdf garden_villages__towns_ file/733047/Locally-led_ attachment_data/ uploads/system/uploads/ service.gov.uk/government/ status have noplanning communities homes of garden 30% planning permission have at leastoutline communities homes of garden 20% GARDEN GROW? HOW DOES YOUR INSIGHT 6 10 9 garden-towns 200000-homes-in-new- cash-boost-to-help-build- uk/government/news/ https://assets.publishing. https://www.gov. the Local Plan” Local the outside currently or for housing allocated currently to support…[they] may, land on for be example, we expect villages for garden the model single no Progress Planning 04 described in the 2016 prospectus: “ 2016 prospectus: the in described As pathways. on variable and rates differing at process planning the through progress Communities Garden that unsurprising is it projects, the of heterogeneity the Given permissions (see Figure 4). A number of 4). of Anumber (see Figure permissions outline or allocations, emerging or adopted as either status, some planning have currently Communities Garden homes in of the half around that finds research Our permission/reserved matters. planning detailed then and of outline granting the Plan, Local the in allocation an comprising usually process, planning formal the go through still must project the scheme, of the stage early an at Community Garden a announces Government the When strategies. supply or land plans by covered local 15-20typically the years than longer periods time spanning often projects long-term necessarily are communities Garden Source: Lichfields analysis All garden communities homes Communities Garden of status Planning 4: Figure 0 14,000 Completions 3% 50,000 81,000 20% 9 . 100,000 Outline permission 46,000 11% 150,000 Total units by planning achieved milestone There is 143,000

200,000 35% plan allocation Adopted local rather than miaxmum delivery figures. figures. delivery miaxmum than rather guidelines be to appear figures Government’s However the question. in period Plan Local the beyond or allocations initial those beyond involve would which but delivery allocation, an have already which on sites are figure, housing headline government’s the of 18% or homes, 55,000 least at we that found Indeed, Communities. Garden of capacity housing estimated Government’s with allocations existing not match we could some cases, In of homes) put forward by Government of homes) forward put (i.e. number capacity total of the context the in permissions, outline any as well as Plans, Local emerging and adopted in place in allocations any including projects, Communities Garden of the status planning We the reviewed have Local Plan process risk. of planning levels ongoing to subject therefore Two are all. at thirds status planning of homes no formal have third a around leaves this However completions. delivered already have Communities Garden 250,000 300,000 plan allocation Emerging local 119,000 30% 350,000 planning status formal No 400,000 10 . 450,000 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

We found that local authorities containing but this proportion is up to two thirds in Garden Communities were no more likely to some local authority areas, where the ability have an adopted local plan than the average. to sustain a five-year housing land supply will 23% of homes within the programme are be overwhelmingly dependent on successful located in LPAs which have not submitted implementation of the Garden Village. A There is no single any Local Plan under the NPPF, identical to similar proportion of homes were allocated model for the garden 11 villages we expect the rate for all LPAs across the country . We in emerging local plans, but there was some to support…[they] found no correlation in the age of an adopted overlap in these groups, because some Garden may, for example, local plan and the date of Garden Community Communities appeared to include both sites be on land currently designation, and one third of homes in the allocated in adopted plans, as well as new sites allocated for housing or currently outside Garden Communities programme are in in emerging plans. In some cases, the emerging the Local Plan. LPAs which have only recently submitted a plan comprised a Plan review, for example in local plan and which remains at examination Fareham and Cherwell, with additional sites MHCLG, Garden (albeit that at the time of Garden Communities and/or capacity being identified in the Garden Communities designation, plan submission may not have yet Community to meet new levels of housing Prospectus 2016 occurred). need. Where the Garden Community project was allocated in a Local Plan, its proportionate contribution to the total housing requirement of that plan varied significantly (see Figure 5). We estimate that in the 24 area with Garden Community allocations in adopted plans, allocations made up on average 30% of the total housing requirement within that plan,

Figure 5: Proportion of Local Plan requirement accounted for by Garden Communities (adopted and emerging)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10% % of adopted local plan housing reqirements 0%

York Carlise Dartford Waverly Ashford KetteringBraintree Cherwell Knowsley Cornwall Tandridge Uttlesford Mid Devon Darlington Lancaster Chelmsford Chelmsford Teignbridge West Dorset Cheltenham Cheshire East Aylesbury Vale Wellingborough South Kesteven South Derbyshire West Oxfordshire South Oxfordshire Stratford-on-Avon Vale of White Horse Basingstoke & Dean Central Bedfordshire Tonbridge and Malling LPA

Adopted Garden Commmunity allocations

Somerset West and Taunton Dean Emerging Garden Community allocations

Other Source: Lichfields analysis 11 As at November, 2019.

7 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Planning tools for delivery urban extensions. Other areas such as Greater Exeter and South West Herts are in the Around half of Garden Communities (23/49, early stages of preparing new Joint Strategic accounting for 52% of homes) already had some Plans, which will see proposals for Garden adopted allocations or outline permissions Communities in those areas. Joint plans are at the time when they were designated by therefore a key mechanism being used to Government. This suggests that in some cases, deliver Garden Communities. the designations are existing projects that have been ‘badged’ as Garden Communities and/or Looking beyond site allocations or broad their place within the programme is intended to locations identified in local plans, and outline signal support for their delivery rather than to planning applications, there is no single establish the principle of development. pathway for how the planning system supports delivery of Garden Communities. Differing Equally, the Government designated Shapley local circumstances, including local plan Heath Garden Community less than four progress, are likely to have an impact on the months after an Inspector requested that Hart planning tool used to provide the necessary District Council remove the surrounding detailed framework to shape implementation. Winchfield Green area of search (including Indeed, many Garden Communities are being 12 the Shapley Heath site) from its Local Plan , delivered without specific statutory planning albeit with an early review recommended mechanisms, such as Area Action Plans, in 13 to reconsider the matter . This suggests the place. Government is not shy in endorsing schemes 14 and seeking to help establish the principle of Guidance from Homes England suggests four development in locations where the case for planning tools or mechanisms that can be used development is demonstrably not yet proven. to help deliver Garden Communities. They aim to balance the interests of a wide range A number of the LPAs containing a designated of stakeholders to provide differing levels of Garden Community are in the process of certainty and to resolve showstopping issues preparing joint plans (both new style Joint such as infrastructure provision and timing. Strategic Plans, and joint Local Plans), clearly in They benefit from a flexibility that also reflects part due to the need to coordinate the delivery differing local plan contexts. While some of these new communities, which in some authorities use these mechanisms to resolve instances are proposed on cross boundary sites delivery issues, other Garden Communities or to meet cross boundary needs. Braintree, may be delivered without them, and all the Colchester and Tendring in Essex submitted mechanisms can be used for other new long- a shared Local Plan in 2017 which remains at term and large-scale projects not designated by examination pending further technical work 12 The Inspector’s interim Government as part of the current programme. findings on the Hart Local requested by the Inspector on deliverability of Table 1 summarises the four tools and the their Plan (February 2019) its three new Garden Communities. In 2016, found in respect of the take up accross the 49 projects so far. new settlement that: “it Corby, East Northamptonshire, Kettering and cannot be determined that Wellingborough adopted a Joint Core Strategy it represents the most appropriate long-term which contains seven new settlements and growth strategy [and] there is little evidence to demonstrate that a site can actually be delivered in terms of infrastructure, viability and landownership within the identified AoS [Area of Search]” 13 https://www.hart.gov.uk/ garden-community 14 https://www.gov. uk/guidance/garden- communities/planning- policy

8 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Table 1: Planning tools being used to deliver Garden Communities

Statutory Planning Tools (plans require sustainability appraisals)

DEVELOPMENT CORPORATIONS: ALLOCATION-SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN DOCUMENT (including an area action plan): e.g. Ebbsfleet (Urban Development e.g. Bailrigg, Chilmington, North East Corporation) Chelmsford, St Cuthberts, Threemilestone.

A New Town Development Corporation can take on These allocation-specific development plan certain roles of a local planning authority. For example, documents (DPDs), in effect, supersede or making a local plan and investing in infrastructure or supplement a local plan. They can help where schemes land assembly that unlocks development. cross local plan boundaries, or to resolve otherwise It requires a new arm’s length body, to be created by ‘showstopping’ issues such as infrastructure delivery parliament under the New Towns Act 1981. or Green Belt release. Additionally, they can be used to focus broad locations of search into specific sites. No New Town Development Corporations have been formed in relation to Garden Communities to date. DPDs are prepared by LPAs and provide a higher But in October 2019, the Government consulted on level of certainty as they can establish the principal potential reforms to the Development Corporation of development. They are subject to the same regime to help locally led development corporations to sustainability appraisals and examinations as local support the delivery of Garden Communities . plans. Ebbsfleet is being delivered through an Urban Seven Garden Communities have Area Action Plans Development Corporation, (established through Local in place or being prepared. No Garden Communities Government and Land Act 1980). It did not require the appear to be using other DPDs. full powers described above, as outline permission for the Garden City had already been granted.

Non- Statutory Planning Tools (do not require sustainability appraisals)

SITE-SPECIFIC SUPPLEMENTARY OTHER NON-STATUTORY PLANNING DOCUMENTS (SPDS): MECHANISMS:

e.g. Culm, Dalton, Handforth, Long Marston, e.g. Infinity, Welborne, Shapley Welborne Heath

Produced by LPAs, SPDs provide guidance for the Alongside SPDs, there are several other non-statutory development management process rather than planning documents often prepared by LPAs with establishing the principal of development in a specific the private sector to set the principles and provide location. guidance for the delivery of a Garden Community. They are typically focused on design and placemaking These are typically flexible and can vary in their scale and are highly flexible. and specificity. They can establish detailed guidelines as to the design We found eight examples of Garden communities and layout, but in future some of this may be covered using SPDs. These include masterplans, development by local iterations of the new National Model Design briefs, or vision documents which set out the future of Code. an area outside of the Local Plan process and provide At least 13 Garden Communities are supported by an a platform for public and private sector collaboration SPD, one of which followed an Area Action Plan. and public consultation.

15 MHCLG, Development Corporation Reform Technical consultation, Source: Lichfields analysis October 2019

9 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Planning Permissions Completions Many Garden Communities include proposals Garden Communities have already delivered 14,000 which were progressing before their inclusion approximately 14,000 completions up to April homes completed within the Programme. In some, planning 2019, with the vast majority of these within so far as part of the permission for a portion of the scheme (and in Garden Towns as opposed to Garden Villages. programme some cases construction) had begun prior to Where Garden Communities have already designation as a Garden Community. begun to deliver, they have typically comprised Approximately 81,000 homes in Garden extensions to existing settlements. Bicester, 81,000 Communities currently have at least outline Aylesbury and Didcot alone make up around planning permission (excluding completions). 14% of homes already completed in Garden homes have outline Communities. permission. At the time of writing, a further 18,000 homes have submitted outline applications, These towns are progressing a number of not yet determined, bringing the total to smaller sites on their outer perimeters, which 100,000 homes, or one quarter of the Garden in Bicester range from 300 homes, to 6,000 at Communities programme total already in the Kingsmere; in Aylesbury from 1,000 homes pipeline. to 3,254 (3,254 allocated, 3,111 with outline permission, and 1,776 completed as of April However, not all Garden Communities have 2019); and in Didcot from 1,700 to 4,254 (800 sailed through planning: in addition to the allocated in the adopted Local Plan, 4,254 with problems experienced at Shapley Heath with outline permission). North Northamptonshire the Hart Local Plan and the North Essex and Taunton also had significant numbers of Garden Communities, in Bicester Garden Town, completions at major sites such as Priors Hall, an application for 300 homes at the Gavray adjacent to Corby; and Monkton Heathfield on Drive site was refused by Cherwell District the edge of Taunton, while Ebbsfleet is now Council, and dismissed, in spite of a Local Plan delivering at pace. allocation, due to the proposal not meeting a site-specific Local Plan policy requiring green infrastructure provision on site16.

16 Appeal Reference: APP/ C3105/W/17/3189611. In dismissing the proposals, the Inspector observed that “Bicester’s status as the UK’s first Garden Town, and the Eco Town development to the northwest of Bicester, were drawn to my attention by the appellants and by those opposing the appeal proposal, each in support of their case. Neither designation is determinative, but both appear to be allied to the aim of Bicester 13, namely securing sustainable development on sustainable sites by balancing housing delivery with (among other things) environmental enhancements. The appeal proposal does not achieve this.” (DL61)

10 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Figure 6: Status of Garden Community projects and homes

South Seaham Completions Biggleswade West Carclaze Outline permission Tresham Halsnead Adopted locan plan allocation Handforth Longcross Emerging local plan allocation Eynsham St George’s Barracks Berinsfield No formal planning status Burtree Dunsfold Park Threemilestone Cyber Central Borough Green Gardens Infinity West of Elvington Whetstone Pastures Bailrigg Long Marston Spitalgate Heath South Godstone Dunton Hills Dalton Barracks Skerningham Shapley Heath Culm Welborne Newton Abbot North Dorchester Chilmington North East Chelmford Meecebrooke Otterpool Park Basingstoke Tewkesbury Ashchurch St Cutberts Hemel Bicester Taunton Didcot Grazeley Completions Ebbsfleet Aylesbury Outline permmission Uttlesford Exeter Adopted locan plan allocation Harlow & Gilston North Northamptonshire North Essex Emerging local plan allocation

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Units

Source: Lichfields analysis

11 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

GARDEN COMMUNITIES Total number of units:

>15,000 !( !( !(

Figure!( 7: Map10,0 0of0 Garden- 15,000 Communities by Status !(!( !( 7,500 - 9,999 !( 5,000 - 7,499 !( !( 2,500 - 4,999 !( GA!(RDE1N,5 C00O -M 2,M49U9 NITIES Total number of units: Status Milestone: >15,000 !( !(! Construction !( !( !( Outline Permission !(! 10,000 - 15,000 !(!( (including submitted) !( !( !( 7A,d5o0p0t e- d9 ,A99llo9cation !( ! !( !( 5,000 - 7,499 ! Emerging Allocation !( !( !( !( GARD2E,N50 0C -O 4,M999MUNITIES !( T!otal nNo1Nu,om5 tformal0 Ab0 le-lo 2rc ,ao4 t9planningfe9 dunits: status !( !( SGtAatRuDs EMNil eCsOtoMneM: UNITIES ! !( Total num>b1e5r, 0o0f 0units: !( !( !(!( !( !(! Construction !(! !( ! !( !( ! ! !( >15,000 !(!( !( !( !( Outline Permission (! !(!(!( ! 10,000 - 15,000 ! !(!( !(!( !( !( (including submitted) 10,000 - 15,000 !( !( !( !(! !( !( !( Adopted Allocation !( !(! 7,500 - 9,999 !((! !( ! !( !( !( 7,500 - 9,999 !( !( !( !!( Em5,e0r0gi0n g- A7l,l4o9ca9tion !( ! !( !( !( !(!( 5,000 - 7,499 !( !( ! N2o,t5 A0ll0o c-a 4te,9d99 !( !( !( 2,500 - 4,999 !( !( !( !( !( 1,500 - 2,499 ! !( !( ! !( 1,500 - 2,499 !( Status Milestone: !(!( (! Status Milesto!n(e: ! !( !( ! ! !( !( !( !( !(!( !( !( !! CoCnosntrsutcrtuiocntion !( !( !(!( !(!( !( OOutulitnlein Pee rPmeirsmsioisnsion ! !( !( ! (including submitted) (including submitted) !(!( !( !( !( !(!( ! Adopted Allocation !( !( !( !( !( ! Adopted Allocation !( !( !( !( !( ! Emerging Allocation !( !(!( ! Emerging Allocation !( !( !( ! Not Allocated !( !( ! Not Allocated !( !( !( !( !( ! (! !( !( !!( !( !(! !( ! ! !( !(!( !(!( !( !( !(!( !( !( ! ! !( ! !( !( !( ! !(!(! !(!(!( !(!( !!( !( !(!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!( !( !(!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!(

!( !(

Source: Lichfields analysis

12 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Delivery trajectory five years, before significantly increasing for To understand the trajectory of housing the period from 2025 and ramping up to a peak delivery from Garden Communities, we rate of delivery of around 16,000 per annum 10-16,000 have applied average build rates and lead in after 2030 continuing until about 2044 before homes per annum times by size of site from our Start to Finish tapering (to 13,000 dwellings per annum) by the from 2025 until 2 publication17 to create a national Garden late 2040s 2050 Communities trajectory (Figure 8). This Caution is required, as there can be substantial indicative delivery timeline accounts for the variation in build out rates, both in terms of stage at which individual sites and schemes individual sites, as well as for sites over their within the programme have already reached, c.4,000 lifespan of delivery. For example, our Start including any completions and outline homes per annum to Finish 2 research found that peak delivery permissions that have occurred, but does up to 2024 could be up to 75% higher than average not account for potential variations in build delivery across all years. Exogenous factors out rates over time on individual sites (e.g. such as market conditions, planning policy ramping up of delivery in the early years once changes and changes to financing are all likely full permission has been granted). We have to play a part in this, and of course one of the not assembled this with a view to presenting aims of the Government support that Garden a position on the trajectories of individual Communities can attract is to help increase the projects for the purposes of assessing individual pace of their delivery. However, the indicative plans; it is an attempt to estimate the trajectory timeline usefully shows how long it might of the overall programme. take the Garden Village programme to achieve Our modelling suggests the Garden its housing output goals if average build rates Communities programme will take until were applied. We can conclude that Garden at least 2050 to build out fully before Communities will deliver a significant number consideration of any unforeseen delays or of homes, but the more significant impact will specific measures to accelerate build-out. Based not be seen until well after the next national on our assumptions18, the programme will electoral cycle. deliver only around 21,000 homes over the next

Figure 8: Projected annual delivery trajectory of Garden Communities Programme, 2014-2049

18k

16k

14k 17 Updated analysis from 12k Lichfields, Start to Finish 2 (publication forthcoming) 10k 18 We have used typical 8k lead in times and planning periods based on Start to 6k Finish 2, suggesting that the majority of Garden 4k Community Sites which

Average annual housing delivery forecast housing annual Average have no permissions yet will 2k take 7-8 years (depending on their size) to begin delivering, and those with 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2039 2040-2044 2045-2049 outline permission will take 2-3 years (again dependent Five year delivery period (annualised) on size) to do so. Sites already under construction Source: Lichfields analysis or with reserved matters granted are assumed to build out from 2020.

13 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW? 05 The Local Context

Location characteristics To understand the context for delivering We have analysed the characteristics of the Garden Communities, we also analysed the areas in which Garden Community projects political control of the 59 Local Authorities have been put forward, using the most granular with Garden Community projects in them (see level of location information available. Figure 10).20 Areas where Garden Communities are proposed are disproportionately under The majority of Garden Communities (35 of 49) Conservative control, 48% of LPAs with were located in rural authorities (according to Garden Communities compared with 38% DEFRA classifications, see Figure 9).19 Within controlled nationally. The relatively high share these authorities however, they are typically of homes in Garden Communities located located in urban neighbourhoods (Lower Super in councils under no overall control (34%) is Output Areas), which accounted for 58% of also higher than councils nationally (25% of homes. councils). This reflects in part the location of garden communities outside of larger cities.

Figure 9: Rural urban classification of LSOAs containing Garden Communities homes

Neighbourhoods Units

Councils Urban 209,400 (58%)

Rural 143,200 (42%)

Total with detailed 363,600 location information

Urban Rural

Source: Lichfields analysis

19 https://www.gov.uk/ government/collections/ rural-urban-classification 20 In cross-boundary proposals, we have counted both authorities for this analysis.

14 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Finally we considered the Index of Multiple Communities or number of homes when we Deprivation (IMD) score and affordability compared areas above and below the national ratio of designated Garden Communities. The median affordability ratio. majority of Garden Communities (43 of 49) This suggests that, as locally led vehicles for were located in the 50% least deprived local housing delivery, there is no link nationally authorities in the country using the Index of between affordability and where Garden Multiple Deprivation. Only Ebbsfleet Garden Community are designated. City is located in a local authority that is in the 20% most deprived authorities in the country. There was no clear pattern between affordability ratio and the number of Garden

Figure 10: Political make up of Garden Communities authorities

Share of Councils Homes Units21

196,000 Councils Conservative 28 (48%)

33,000 Labour 7 (8%)

32,000 Lib Dem 5 (8%)

No overall control/ 19 137,000 other* (34%)

Total 59 403,000

Consevative Lib Dem

Labour No overall control/other

Source: Lichfields analysis

21 Units that have been proposed for the North Northamptonshire Garden Community have not been fully allocated to a specific site, therefore share of homes do not sum to overall total.

15 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

of their scale and independence were adjacent Self containment to existing towns but divided by a major Garden Communities are typically motorway or other piece of infrastructure, for characterised as ‘new settlements’; however, example Welborne Garden Village is separated for some of the schemes in the programme from Fareham by the M27. Similarly, many this definition is not clear cut. Some Garden standalone settlements encompassed existing Communities rely on existing services of a small villages, as in the case of Harlow and neighbouring settlement either as ‘linked’ new Gilston Garden Town. The Garden Town settlements, or indeed can be considered as proposals over 10,000 homes appeared in some ‘urban extensions’ rather than self-contained instances to include housing figures from communities or ‘standalone settlements’. completions, windfalls and other sources which we have not assessed as being self-contained A qualitative assessment (see Figure 11), based settlements. on location and design information available on the Garden Community projects shows To further understand Garden Communities’ 22 of 49 garden communities are standalone connections with existing settlements, we also settlements not functionally linked or directly reviewed the average distance (as the crow adjacent to existing settlements, eight were flies) of individual sites to an existing railway major new settlements clearly linked to nearby station. To do this we assessed the centre towns, and the remaining 19 were urban point(s) of sites where detailed information extensions, on the edge of existing towns and has been published. Only 8% of Garden cities such as Basingstoke, Bicester, Taunton Community homes were within 800m of a and Wellingborough. The standalone projects station (10-minute walk) by this measure, a accounted for approximately one third of third of homes were less than 2km, and around homes in the programme (35%), the linked new three quarters of homes were within 5km of settlements another third (32%), and the urban a railway station. This suggests that Garden extensions the final third (33%). On average, Communities are in relatively well-connected the largest of these were the linked new strategic locations, albeit they are not typically settlements, around 16,000 homes each, while ‘transit-oriented’ development based on standalone settlements and urban extensions walking to existing rail connections. There will were on average around 6,300 and 7,000 homes perhaps be more opportunities for rail-based respectively. garden community proposals22 in future given the latent potential of many such locations and However, in some cases, Garden Communities the provisions of NPPF paras 102, 103 and 138. that we classed as new settlements by virtue

22 We identified six schemes associated with a new station being built, albeit that North East Chelmsford was the only scheme where funding has been committed, and this helps deliver wider housing growth in the area alongside the Garden Community – see https://www.southeastlep. com/app/uploads/2019/01/ Beaulieu-New-Railway- Station-Business-Case.pdf

16 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Figure 11: Map of Garden Communities by level of Self Containment 8 linked new GARDEN COMMUNITIES settlements Self Containment !( Linked New Settlement !( GARDEN COMMUNITIES !( !( Standalone Settlement Self Containment !!(! 22 !( Urban Extension !( Linked New Settlement !( 22 standalone !( settlements !( UrbanStandalone areas Settlement !( !!(!!( !( Urban Extension

Urban areas ! 19 !( !( (! ! !( urban extensions

!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!(!( !( !( !( !(!( !( !( !( !( !( (! !( !!( !( !( !( !( (! !((! !( !( !(! !(!!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!(! !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( (! !((! !( ! ! !( !( !( !( !( (! !( !

Source: Lichfields analysis

17 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Up to Educational provision homes that will provide a secondary school, and a site of 3,300 homes that will provide To understand the new services provided by two secondary schools. But, there were also Garden Communities, we have assessed the a number of examples of a site of over 2,500 182 level of educational provision they intend homes providing no secondary school (see new primary schools to provide. We were able to find some data Figure 12). The three sites providing two on educational provision for 40 of the 49 Up to secondary schools were all over 2,500 homes. Garden Communities. Sites within Garden It is also worth noting than in some cases, Communities with one primary school had provision for secondary schools entailed only on average 1,600 units, while the average size the land required, rather than full build-cost 56 of schemes with two primary schools was funding by the scheme. new secondary (perhaps unsurprisingly) larger at 2,700 units. schools Sites providing one secondary school had an The context of existing provision is also a average size of 2,800 homes. guiding factor. One scheme of 2,000 homes provided a secondary school but no primary Overall, based on the 40 schemes identified, school, presumably due to existing local the Garden Communities programme will provision. One Infrastructure Delivery Plan provide for at least 143 primary schools and 44 we reviewed pointed to a surplus of primary secondary schools. At that rate, extrapolated for school places of about 5% over its local plan the nine projects for which there is no data, this period, albeit that the Garden Community would mean approximately 182 primary schools located in that local authority still proposed five and 56 secondary schools. primary schools to meet local requirements23. However, levels of provision between sites Our analysis found the number of primary vary enormously, likely due to both existing schools was not well correlated with the size provision and the use of need assessments of scheme; with other factors, such as existing by planners to determine education capacity local provision reflected, and a lack of available requirements. We found within Garden information on plans for future school delivery Communities, individual sites as small as 1,500 being notable.

Figure 12: New school provision in Garden Communities by range of homes

30000

25000

20000 Max

15000 Average Min

10000 Number of homes on site

5000

0 23 https://www.folkestone- 1 Primary Schools 2 Primary Schools 3 or more 1 Secondary 2 Secondary hythe.gov.uk/media/5353/ Primary Schools School Schools Infrastructure-Delivery- Education provision Plan-IDP-August-2018/ pdf/3.5_Infrastructure_ Source: Lichfields analysis Delivery_Plan_(IDP)_ August_2018.pdf

18 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

Economic impact support just under 350,000 jobs on employment land in Garden Communities. The Government has been explicit24 that Garden Communities will create new job We also estimate the development of Garden £87.1bn opportunities across a range of industries. Communities will support up to 1.3m jobs economic output during the lifetime of the programme. over the next 30 Accordingly, we analysed the headline years economic benefits of the proposed Garden A number of Garden Communities contained Communities. very significant employment land provision, Using Lichfields’ Evaluate economic impact for example 40ha at Eynsham Garden Village toolkit we estimate that the total economic in Oxfordshire, 32ha at Taunton Garden 600 value of the build out of the Garden Town, and 23ha at Longcross Garden Village hectares of Communities including homes, schools, and in Surrey. The examples include a mix of employment land provision identified employment space (although not additional both Garden Towns (over 10,000 homes) and Garden Villages (under 10,000). In about a fifth on 31 projects; infrastructure such as roads) as being in the grossed up to the region of £87.1bn over the lifetime of the of Garden Communities, the total provision programme, could programme. was less than 5ha (albeit these were all Garden accommodate Villages under 10,000 homes). 350,000 jobs Once built, we also estimate that around £8.2bn would go directly to the public finances each year through taxes. In addition to this we Figure 13: Economic benefits of Garden Communities programme estimate Section 106 and CIL will be worth 2 around £6bn, based on an MHCLG assumption 35m of industrial land per of £15,000 per dwelling in large urban home on average extensions25 (though infrastructure costs and £71.37bn therefore receipts could be significantly higher Economic output for Garden Communities of more than 10,000 from building homes). This is in the context of an estimated ‘pump priming’ Housing Infrastructure Funding (HIF) spend of c.£1.35bn in authorities £2.02bn with Garden Communities, around 40% of the Net capital amount allocated so far, or 25% of total available expenditure funds. Where information on proposed employment land provision was available for Garden £13.7bn Communities (31 of 49), the vast majority of Community benefits Garden Communities did make some provision, albeit that in some cases this was relatively small (less than 5ha). In total, we found evidence of around 600ha of employment land across 31 Garden £8.23bn Communities, around 20ha on average per Public revene scheme, or around 35m2 of employment land (as opposed to floorspace) per dwelling. The 24 MHCLG, Garden number of jobs that could be supported will Communities Prospectus £13.1bn 2018 depend on the form of development that arises, 25 Expenditure from https://assets.publishing. but if the space was notionally split equally service.gov.uk/government/ new residents uploads/system/uploads/ between offices, light industrial and warehouse attachment_data/ space at a standard plot ratio and with assumed file/314066/Section_106_ Planning_Obligations_in_ 2 Source: Lichfields analysis, drawing on HBF and MHCLG job densities, the 35m per dwelling might England_2011-12_-_Report_ of_study.pdf

19 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW? 06 Conclusions and implications

The Government’s Garden Communities therefore subject to ongoing levels of planning programme aims to deliver some 403,000 risk. A number of proposals have experienced dwellings (providing homes for around delay because of insufficient evidence that the a million people), which our trajectory schemes are well conceived or deliverable over indicatively suggests will come forward over the plan period. Promoters and local authorities the next 30 years to 2050, and could well need to be confident they can answer key provide more if further growth is planned. questions, for example: Alongside these homes, they are set to provide • Why is the site’s inclusion in the spatial up to 182 new primary schools and 56 new strategy for the area justified when secondary schools as well as 600 ha or more assessed against reasonable alternatives? of employment land (accommodating up to 350,000 jobs) and supporting up to 1.3m • How will the project be implemented additional jobs including 16,000 construction in light of relevant information about jobs per annum through its implementation. land ownership, delivery model, and Beyond this, there are significant variations infrastructure requirements? in terms of urban form, location and housing • Is the scheme viable when taking into market context - Garden Communities do account the necessary infrastructure, not on the face it, represent a homogenised affordable housing provision, a realistic planning product responding to a standard delivery trajectory and robust cost and template – instead, the programme provides value assumptions? a mechanism to support locally-promoted schemes. • If external funding is required – e.g. from Government – but not yet secured, how The scale of the programme is undoubtedly should that uncertainty be factored into ambitious, and it has progressed further than its role within the Local Plan housing some ill-fated predecessors – such as ‘new trajectory? country towns’ and ‘Eco Towns’. While the Garden Communities are unlikely to deliver the • How does the planning policy identifying lion’s share of their housing allocations until the site actually operate? What further the mid-2020s - beyond the next election cycle planning tools are required to help unlock - they could deliver up to 16,000 dwellings the scheme and ensure it delivers in a per annum by the 2030s based on current way that meets core policy requirements typical build rates and lead in times, making governing the quality of design and place? a significant contribution to meeting housing Once incorporated into draft or adopted need. Local Plans, many areas are heavily reliant on But Garden Communities status is not a Garden Communities to meet their housing ‘golden ticket’ to securing an allocation or requirements: in these local authorities, a third planning permission, and only a third have a of their local plan targets depend on Garden permission and or an allocation in an adopted Communities, but in some cases this is as high plan. Another third are in emerging plans, and as two thirds. Any delay in the delivery of these a full 30% are yet to achieve formal planning schemes risks undermining the plan-led system status. This means two thirds still need to in those authorities. establish the principle of development and are

20 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW?

We draw four key conclusions in terms of body of evidence to help understand the how to measure the success of the Garden nature of the programme, its scale, what Communities programme: success will look like, and what metrics one should use to measure its progress, 1. Any large-scale development takes a long effectiveness and additionality. We have time to begin delivering: by its very nature, plugged this gap – to an extent – with the Garden Communities programme some of the core facts and figures we would not be expected to reach critical have assembled, and which can hopefully mass of delivery until the 2030s. It is only provide a baseline for future evaluation. at this point that we will be able to draw However, there remains little basis firm conclusions about its efficacy in at present to make any comparative bringing forward new homes at pace. assessment of the quality of places that will 2. The programme plays a dual role: on the be created through the programme and to one hand helping to support promotion what extent they adopt some of the “key of strategic sites through the plan-making qualities” the Government identified in its process (e.g. at Shapley Heath, where the Prospectus; designation promptly followed the site’s 4. However, it is possible to conclude that rejection by the Planning Inspectorate the programme is heterogenous in terms in an emerging plan); and on the other, of the types of development that it playing a role in the implementation and supports. Whilst the Garden Communities delivery of large extant permissions, as at prospectus did provide some criteria for Ebbsfleet and Bicester, and through wider appraising bids (including with reference support, including funding and advice/ to Garden City Principles), the context, brokerage. These are different tasks. location and forms of development There is at one level an issue in how to emerging through the programme do not interpret Government endorsement of a appear to follow a particular template. development project as a Garden Village This diversity, which reflects that the whilst the Secretary of State has a parallel proposals are locally-led, may not in role – via the Planning Inspectorate – in itself be undesirable. However, it does providing independent scrutiny of the raise questions of expectation – is there a acceptability of those proposals through sufficiently clear understanding of what the statutory planning process. a ‘Garden Community’ is intended to 3. In preparing this research, it became represent? apparent that there is no readily-available

21 INSIGHT HOW DOES YOUR GARDEN GROW? Appendix 1: Data Table

Garden Designation Designation Total Units Units Units with Units Units without Community Date residential allocated allocated outline planning completed formal planning units (adopted) (emerging) permission status

North Essex Garden Town Dec-15 43,000 43,000 North Garden Town Mar-16 33,000 7,100 16,785 1,510 7,100 Northamptonshire Harlow & Gilston Garden Town Jan-17 24,000 24,000 Exeter Garden Town May-19 20,000 20,000 Uttlesford Garden Town Mar-19 18,500 18,500 0 Aylesbury Garden City Dec-15 15,000 2,550 8,213 2,262 1,975 Ebbsfleet Garden Town Mar-14 15,000 474 9,649 1,577 3,300 Grazely Garden Town Jan-17 15,000 15,000 Didcot Garden Town Jan-17 15,000 9,251 1,883 3,866 Note: Every effort has been made to ensure the Taunton Garden Town Mar-19 14,000 7,000 4,431 3,569 accuracy of the data in Bicester Garden Town Dec-14 13,000 5,796 1,785 5,419 this table at the time of Hemel Garden Village Nov-16 11,000 11,000 publication using published St Cuthberts Garden Town 10,325 sources including emerging Mar-19 1,450 8,875 and adopted Local Plans, Tewkesbury Garden Town Mar-19 10,195 10,195 evidence base documents, Ashchurch planning applications and Basingstoke Garden Town Mar-16 10,060 4,400 943 117 4,600 government press releases. However, this information Otterpool Park Garden Town Jan-17 10,000 10,000 is subject to change as Meecebrook Garden Village Mar-19 10,000 10,000 schemes progress towards North East Garden Village Jun-19 9,850 5,500 3,355 995 more detailed design, and site capacities are refined. Chelmsford At times, we were not able to Chilmington Green Garden Village Jun-19 7,250 1,000 1,500 4,750 reconcile differing sources North Dorchester Garden Village Jun-19 7,000 7,000 of information regarding the Newton Abbot Garden Village Jan-17 6,806 1,315 3,039 2,196 256 total capacity of individual sites or schemes. In these Welborne Garden Village Jan-17 6,000 6,000 instances we have referred Culm Garden Village Jun-19 5,000 5,000 to the latest information Shapley Heath Garden Village Jun-19 5,000 5,000 available to us. All figures should be regarded as Skerningham Garden Village Jun-19 4,500 4,500 indicative and for the Dalton Barracks Garden Village Jun-19 4,500 4,500 purposes of considering South Godstone Garden Village Jun-19 4,000 4,000 the Garden Communities Spitalgate Heath Garden Village Jan-17 3,700 3,700 programme as a whole rather than to evaluate Long Marston Garden Village Jan-17 3,500 3,500 individual projects. Dunton Hills Garden Village Jan-17 4,000 4,000 Bailrigg Garden Village Jan-17 3,500 3,500 Disclaimer: This publication Whetstone Pastures Garden Village Jun-19 3,500 3,500 has been written in general West of Elvington Garden Village Jun-19 3,339 3,339 terms and cannot be Infinity Garden Village 3,200 3,200 relied on to cover specific Jan-17 situations. We recommend Borough Green Garden Village Jun-19 3,000 1,720 1,280 that you obtain professional Gardens advice before acting or Cyber Central Garden Village Jun-19 3,000 3,000 refraining from acting on any of the contents of this Threemilestone Garden Village Jun-19 2,700 publication. Lichfields Dunsfold Park Garden Village Jun-19 2,600 2,700 accepts no duty of care Burtree Garden Village Jun-19 2,310 2,310 2,600 or liability for any loss occasioned to any person Berinsfield Garden Village Jun-19 2,300 700 acting or refraining from St George’s Barracks Garden Village Jan-17 2,215 1,600 2,215 acting as a result of any Eynsham Garden Village Jun-19 2,200 2,200 material in this publication. Longcross Garden Village Jan-17 1,718 92 108 Lichfields is the trading name of Nathaniel Lichfield Handforth Garden Village Jan-17 1,650 1,650 1,518 & Partners Limited. Halsnead Garden Village Jan-17 1,589 1,589 Registered in England, West Carclaze Garden Village Jan-17 1,500 1,500 no.2778116. Registered office: 14 Regent’s Wharf, Biggleswade Garden Village Jan-17 1,500 1,500 All Saints Street, London N1 South Seaham Garden Town Jun-19 1,500 1,500 9RL © Nathaniel Lichfield & Tresham Garden Town Jun-19 1,500 1,500 Partners Ltd 2018. All rights reserved. Source: Lichfields analysis

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