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EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY January 24, 2020

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EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY January 24, 2020 EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY January 24, 2020 What's Inside Focus Items Initiation SLM Corp. (SLM) Dominick Gabriele, CFA MSG O Madison Square Garden Company This Party Was So Fun We're Leaving; Downgrade to Perform Rating Change Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) Christopher Glynn GNRC O ­ Generac Holdings Inc. Upgrading to Outperform SLM P ¯ SLM Corp. Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) Bryan F. Blair, CFA Estimates & PT Revisions Improving Resi Backdrop Bodes Well for MWA; Increasing Price BIIB O ­ Biogen Inc. Target to $14 CMCSA O ¯ Comcast Xylem, Inc. (XYL) Bryan F. Blair, CFA ¯ DFS P Discover Financial Services Updating Estimates for Continued Short-Cycle Headwinds; Long- HASI O ­ Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Term Thesis Remains Intact Infrastructure Capital, Inc. INTC P ­ Intel Corp. Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Noah Kaye ISRG P ­ Intuitive Surgical Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI) MWA O ­ Mueller Water Products, Inc. Management Meetings Underscore Sustainable Growth Opportunity: Raising PT to $40 SWKS P ­ Skyworks Solutions, Inc. TEAM O ­ Atlassian Corporation Plc Madison Square Garden Company Ian Zaffino, CFA XYL O ­ Xylem, Inc. (MSG) Full-court Press on Value Recognition; Initiate at Outperform Estimates/Ratings/Price Target Updates Annual Estimates Current FY Next FY Ratings Price Targets Other Headlines Technical Analysis Ari Wald, CFA, CMT Company Ticker Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr Color for Fundamental Focus Calls: MRVL, HASI, MWA, XYL Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Suraj Kalia, CFA Atlassian TEAM 1.00 1.06 1.26 1.39 O O $155.00 $155.00 EPS Beat Helped by Tax Rate; China Pull-Forward, Fewer Trade- Corporation Plc Ins, Rising Benign Mix, and Competition Worth Watching Biogen Inc. BIIB 33.07 33.16 27.27 29.31 O O $338.00 $338.00 Comcast CMCSA 3.30 3.26 -- 3.50 O O $50.00 $50.00 Biogen Inc. (BIIB) Jay Olson, CFA Discover DFS 9.47 9.03 -- 9.68 P P NA NA Key Considerations Ahead of 4Q19 Results Financial Services CLOUD AND COMMUNICATIONS Timothy Horan, CFA Generac GNRC 4.92 4.92 4.95 5.10 P O NA $125.00 Holdings Inc. Datatimes, Jan. 24, 2020: Cable's Broadband Domination Hannon HASI 1.38 1.38 1.44 1.44 O O $35.00 $40.00 Continues Armstrong Sustainable Comcast (CMCSA) Timothy Horan, CFA Infrastructure Capital, Inc. CMCSA 4Q19 Follow-up: Investing for Growth in 2021, Lowering Intel Corp. INTC 4.85 4.99 4.55 5.24 P P NA NA Ests, Broadband Dominance Persists Intuitive ISRG 10.90 11.05 11.98 11.99 P P NA NA Surgical Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM) Ittai Kidron Mueller Water MWA 0.63 0.64 0.70 0.70 O O $13.00 $14.00 Strong Activity Across the Board Products, Inc. For analyst certification and important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix. Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004 Tel: 212-667-7990 Morning Summary - January 24, 2020 SLM Corp. SLM 1.36 1.90 -- 2.03 O P $11.00 INTERNET Bo Pei Skyworks SWKS 6.27 6.47 7.42 7.54 P P NA NA Short Video: Next Generation Content Creation & Consumption Solutions, Inc. Xylem, Inc. XYL 2.88 2.88 3.03 3.02 O O $86.00 $88.00 Intel Corp. (INTC) Rick Schafer Cloud Spend Offsets Share Attrition Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) Rick Schafer 5G Early Innings; Awaiting Handset Volumes TECHNOLOGY Rick Schafer Daily Chip Clips Discover Financial Services (DFS) Dominick Gabriele, CFA Incremental CECL Provision Growth and Investment Spend Pressure 2020/2021 EPS Growth 2 Morning Summary -January 24, 2020 Snap Commentaries - Equities Updates Dominick Gabriele, CFA FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 212-667-7217 SLM Corp. (SLM - $11.75) Specialty Finance Rating / Prior Market Cap Price Target Earnings Type 2019A / Prior 2020E / Prior 2021E / Prior P / O $3,837.5M EPS 1.27 / 1.23 1.90 / 1.36 2.03 / -- This Party Was So Fun We're Leaving; Downgrade to Perform 4Q19 "Core" EPS of $0.33 vs. our/consensus estimates of $0.29/$0.30. Big news is about 3-year strategic initiatives. SLM stopped originating personal loans, which have higher overall losses than student loans, selling ~$3.0B of student loans per year; instilled a mega $600M 2020 and $1.4B 3-year buyback using loan sale gains; and freed up capital. As SLM switches essentially from loan growth to buybacks, the net effect of run-rate EPS excl. gains from portfolio sales is fairly similar to 2021 previous expectations, but it likely chases away shorts. Given post earnings run of ~29% and SLM now trading at ~ 7.5x our new ex-gains 2021 EPS, above or in line vs. ADS/ALLY/SC/SYF, and passed our PT, we think it's time to step aside and take long-fought-for profits. We are downgrading SLM to Perform from Outperform. Christopher Glynn INDUSTRIAL/CAPITAL GOODS 617-556-3711 Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC - $102.99) Industrial Multi-Industry Rating / Prior Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2018A 2019E 2020E / Prior O / P $6,441.2M $125.00 / NA EPS 4.70 4.92 5.10 / 4.95 Upgrading to Outperform We are upgrading GNRC to Outperform (from Perform) and establishing a $125 PT based on 22x our raised '21E EPS of $5.75 ($5.40 prior), above the current 20x our '20E EPS of $5.10 (raised from $4.95), reflecting solid prospects for revenue upside and improving visibility to long-term scaling. The sustained strength in core standby demand fundamentals, coupled with emergence of the California market and launch into "clean energy" (combined energy storage/monitoring and HEMS (home energy management system) offerings), supports our estimated 11% 2020 residential growth. Considering GNRC's expectation for long-term organic adoption ramp (including clean energy platform approximating core standby in size within 5–10 years), we anticipate investment into the operating cost structure and model slightly down 2020 OM. 3 Morning Summary -January 24, 2020 Bryan F. Blair, CFA INDUSTRIAL/CAPITAL GOODS 212-667-7112 Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA - $12.20) Industrial Machinery & Flow Control Rating Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2019A 2020E / Prior 2021E / Prior O $1,925.7M $14.00 / $13.00 EBITDA ($/mil) 198.0 214.0 / 212.0 228.0 / 227.0 Improving Resi Backdrop Bodes Well for MWA; Increasing Price Target to $14 We remain confident in solid F1Q20 results and stable/positive muni demand trends, wtih recent residential indicators supporting upside vs. FY20 expectations. Although we acknowledge that MWA's ongoing facility modernization program restricts run rate FCF, we anticipate strong/accelerating returns on these investments (margin capture, shorter cycle times) over the coming years accompanied by a return to ~100% FCF conversion. Combining our incrementally positive near-term outlook, realistic prospects for intermediate-term earnings/cash flow inflection, and MWA's materially discounted valuation (EV/EBITDA >4 turns below water sector comps), we remain positive on shares and reiterate our Outperform rating. Bryan F. Blair, CFA INDUSTRIAL/CAPITAL GOODS 212-667-7112 Xylem, Inc. (XYL - $82.36) Industrial Machinery & Flow Control Rating Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2018E 2019E / Prior O $14,831.3M $88.00 / $86.00 EPS -- 2.88 3.02 / 3.03 Updating Estimates for Continued Short-Cycle Headwinds; Long-Term Thesis Remains Intact Following weaker than anticipated 2019 performance (marked by three consecutive guidance reductions and the pushback of 2020 margin goals), we expect XYL to provide a reasonable/beatable 2020 outlook alongside 4Q19 results and broadly achievable intermediate-term financial targets at its March 31st Investor Day. Although this implies a lower near-term earnings trajectory, we believe it aligns with investor expectations and should help (in conjunction with improving segment fundamentals, particularly MCS) to reset confidence in XYL's execution story and beat & raise prospects going forward. Combined with solid/ sustainable core growth (in our view, +L/MSD through-the-cycle) and steadily rebuilding dry powder ($2B-plus NTM capacity), we expect XYL's differentiated compounder thesis (unique leverage to secular demand drivers, +double-digit long-term EPS growth) to regain momentum over 2020–21. 4 Morning Summary -January 24, 2020 Noah Kaye INDUSTRIAL/CAPITAL GOODS 212-667-7936 Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI - $34.37) Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Rating Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2018A 2019E 2020E O $2,231.5M $40.00 / $35.00 EPS 1.38 1.38 1.44 Management Meetings Underscore Sustainable Growth Opportunity: Raising PT to $40 We recently hosted HASI CFO Jeff Lipson and VP of IR/ESG Chad Reed for investor meetings in the Mid-Atlantic. HASI’s balance sheet portfolio yield (+130bps year/year in 3Q19), capital strategy, and asset class focus continue to evolve. We view this as a feature of a nimble business model that can achieve a 10% ROE by unlocking emerging opportunities to provide capital for climate change-positive investments. We also see HASI shares benefiting from a broadening pool of capital focusing on sustainability and ESG metrics, which we view as core to the business. We raise our price target to $40 from $35 and maintain our Outperform rating. Ian Zaffino, CFA SPECIAL SITUATIONS 212-667-7413 Madison Square Garden Company (MSG - $300.12) Special Situations Rating Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2019A / Prior 2020E / Prior 2021E / Prior O $7,167.7M $365.00 / EBITDA ($/mil) 169.8 / -- 123.0 / -- 161.9 / -- Full-court Press on Value Recognition; Initiate at Outperform With the impending spin-off of MSG Entertainment, we believe Madison Square Garden Company (MSG) represents an interesting investment opportunity. MSG Sports holds two of the nation’s most recognizable sports franchises (the Knicks and Rangers) and will be one of the only pure-play ways for public investors to own a set of American sports franchises.
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