Funded by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme of the European Union (GA 769638)
INTEND
Project Acronym: Project Title: Project Number: Topic:
INtentify future Transport rEsearch NeeDs 769638
MG-8-7-2017 Coordination and support action
Type of Action:
D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system
(Version 1.0, 31/07/2018)
D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system
Deliverable:
D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system
Work Package:
WP4: Paving the way to future: guidelines for a forward looking transport sector
Due Date:
M10
Submission Date: Start Date of Project: Duration of Project:
31/07/2018 01/10/2017 12 Months
Organisation Responsible of Deliverable:
Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW)
Version:
1.0
Status:
Final
Author name(s):
Merja Hoppe Thomas Trachsel
Reviewer(s): Nature:
All partners
- R – Report
- P – Prototype
- D – Demonstrator
- O - Other
Dissemination level:
PU - Public CO - Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission)
RE - Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services)
Page 2 of 116
D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system
Document history
- Modified by
- Version
0.1
- Date
- Comments
27.07.2018 30.07.2018 31.07.2018
Merja Hoppe, Thomas Trachsel Draft
0.2 1.0
- INTEND Partners
- Internal Review
Merja Hoppe, Thomas Trachsel Final draft and submission
Page 3 of 116
D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system
Contents
Contents .....................................................................................................................................4 List of figures ..............................................................................................................................7 List of Tables ..............................................................................................................................8 Abbreviations..............................................................................................................................9 Executive summary..................................................................................................................11
- 1
- Introduction .......................................................................................................................13
1.1 1.2
WP4 in the frame of the INTEND project..................................................................13 D4.1 - Sketch of the future transport system ............................................................14
- 2
- Research approach, methodologies and appliance in T4.1.............................................15
2.1 A systemic model of transport...................................................................................16
- 2.1.1
- Technology / R&D ..............................................................................................17
Policy ..................................................................................................................18 Economy.............................................................................................................18 Society................................................................................................................18 Transport sector .................................................................................................19 Spatial order .......................................................................................................19
2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 2.1.5 2.1.6
2.2 2.3
Desk research on future trends in mobility and transport.........................................20 Qualitative expert interviews .....................................................................................20
2.3.1 2.3.2
Interview guide ...................................................................................................21 Expert selection..................................................................................................21 Interview phase ..................................................................................................22 Transcription of the interviews ...........................................................................23 Data analysis with QDA-Software......................................................................23
2.3.3 2.3.4 2.3.5
2.4
2.4.1 2.4.2
Online Survey ............................................................................................................25
Formulating hypotheses.....................................................................................25 Survey creation with ‘Questback’ (Unipark).......................................................25 Survey phase......................................................................................................27 Evaluation and preparation of the results..........................................................27
2.4.3 2.4.4
- 3
- Future trends in mobility and transport.............................................................................29
3.1 Transport Technologies.............................................................................................29
- 3.1.1
- Vehicle technologies ..........................................................................................30
Engine technologies...........................................................................................34 Material Technologies........................................................................................37 Outlook ...............................................................................................................39
3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4
Page 4 of 116
D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system
3.2
3.2.1 3.2.2
Infrastructure and Operation Technologies...............................................................43
Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles ......................................................43 Innovative transport infrastructures ...................................................................45 Intelligent transport systems (ITS-technologies) ...............................................46 Outlook ...............................................................................................................48
3.2.3 3.2.4
3.3
3.3.1 3.3.2
Physical Infrastructure...............................................................................................50
Infrastructure damage prevention......................................................................50 Energy recovery .................................................................................................51 Eco-friendly road construction ...........................................................................52 Outlook ...............................................................................................................53
3.3.3 3.3.4
3.4
3.4.1 3.4.2
New mobility products & services .............................................................................54
Sharing Systems ................................................................................................54 Mobility as a service (MaaS)..............................................................................55 On-demand systems ..........................................................................................56 Outlook ...............................................................................................................57
3.4.3 3.4.4
3.5
3.5.1 3.5.2
Policies influencing the transport sector ...................................................................59
Global environmental agreements.....................................................................59 EU transport policies..........................................................................................59 National policies .................................................................................................60 Outlook ...............................................................................................................63
3.5.3 3.5.4
3.6
3.6.1 3.6.2
Economic production & organisational structures.....................................................65
Industry 4.0.........................................................................................................65 Economic structural change...............................................................................66 Green Economy .................................................................................................67 Outlook ...............................................................................................................69
3.6.3 3.6.4
3.7
3.7.1 3.7.2
Spatial organisation & structures ..............................................................................70
Smart Cities as new “planned cities” .................................................................70 Eco-cities ............................................................................................................71 Geographical disparities.....................................................................................73 Outlook ...............................................................................................................73
3.7.3 3.7.4
3.8
3.8.1 3.8.2
Society .......................................................................................................................75
Mobility behaviour ..............................................................................................75 Behaviour change theories ................................................................................76 Mobility paradigms .............................................................................................77 Outlook ...............................................................................................................78
3.8.3 3.8.4
Page 5 of 116
D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system
4.1 4.2
Characteristics of the sample....................................................................................80 Innovation in Transport Technologies.......................................................................81
4.2.1 4.2.2 4.2.3
4.3
4.3.1 4.3.2
Applications of autonomous driving systems.....................................................81 Impacts of autonomous driving systems............................................................82 UAV technologies in the transport system.........................................................84
Future changes in the transport market....................................................................85
Vehicle ownership ..............................................................................................85 New business models ........................................................................................86 Mobility sharing ..................................................................................................87 Revolutionary transport concepts ......................................................................88
4.3.3 4.3.4
4.4
4.4.1 4.4.2
4.5
4.5.1 4.5.2
4.6
Impacts on the sustainability of the transport system...............................................88
Electric drivetrains..............................................................................................88 Lightweight construction.....................................................................................89
Role of the policy .......................................................................................................90
Attitude to newly emerging technologies...........................................................90 Influence for a sustainability transformation of the transport system................91
Conclusion .................................................................................................................92
56
Sketch of the future transport system...............................................................................93 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................96
Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................98 References ...............................................................................................................................99 Annex 1 - Interview guide for expert interviews.....................................................................115
