Funded by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme of the European Union (GA 769638) Project Acronym: INTEND Project Title: INtentify future Transport rEsearch NeeDs Project Number: 769638 Topic: MG-8-7-2017 Type of Action: Coordination and support action D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system (Version 1.0, 31/07/2018) D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system Deliverable: D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system Work Package: WP4: Paving the way to future: guidelines for a forward looking transport sector Due Date: M10 Submission Date: 31/07/2018 Start Date of Project: 01/10/2017 Duration of Project: 12 Months Organisation Responsible of Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) Deliverable: Version: 1.0 Status: Final Author name(s): Merja Hoppe Thomas Trachsel Reviewer(s): All partners Nature: R – Report P – Prototype D – Demonstrator O - Other Dissemination level: PU - Public CO - Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission) RE - Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) Page 2 of 116 D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system Document history Version Date Modified by Comments 0.1 27.07.2018 Merja Hoppe, Thomas Trachsel Draft 0.2 30.07.2018 INTEND Partners Internal Review 1.0 31.07.2018 Merja Hoppe, Thomas Trachsel Final draft and submission Page 3 of 116 D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system Contents Contents ..................................................................................................................................... 4 List of figures .............................................................................................................................. 7 List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. 8 Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 9 Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 11 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 13 1.1 WP4 in the frame of the INTEND project .................................................................. 13 1.2 D4.1 - Sketch of the future transport system ............................................................ 14 2 Research approach, methodologies and appliance in T4.1 ............................................. 15 2.1 A systemic model of transport ................................................................................... 16 2.1.1 Technology / R&D .............................................................................................. 17 2.1.2 Policy .................................................................................................................. 18 2.1.3 Economy ............................................................................................................. 18 2.1.4 Society ................................................................................................................ 18 2.1.5 Transport sector ................................................................................................. 19 2.1.6 Spatial order ....................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Desk research on future trends in mobility and transport ......................................... 20 2.3 Qualitative expert interviews ..................................................................................... 20 2.3.1 Interview guide ................................................................................................... 21 2.3.2 Expert selection .................................................................................................. 21 2.3.3 Interview phase .................................................................................................. 22 2.3.4 Transcription of the interviews ........................................................................... 23 2.3.5 Data analysis with QDA-Software ...................................................................... 23 2.4 Online Survey ............................................................................................................ 25 2.4.1 Formulating hypotheses ..................................................................................... 25 2.4.2 Survey creation with ‘Questback’ (Unipark) ....................................................... 25 2.4.3 Survey phase...................................................................................................... 27 2.4.4 Evaluation and preparation of the results .......................................................... 27 3 Future trends in mobility and transport ............................................................................. 29 3.1 Transport Technologies ............................................................................................. 29 3.1.1 Vehicle technologies .......................................................................................... 30 3.1.2 Engine technologies ........................................................................................... 34 3.1.3 Material Technologies ........................................................................................ 37 3.1.4 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 39 Page 4 of 116 D4.1 Sketch of the future transport system 3.2 Infrastructure and Operation Technologies............................................................... 43 3.2.1 Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles ...................................................... 43 3.2.2 Innovative transport infrastructures ................................................................... 45 3.2.3 Intelligent transport systems (ITS-technologies) ............................................... 46 3.2.4 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 48 3.3 Physical Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 50 3.3.1 Infrastructure damage prevention ...................................................................... 50 3.3.2 Energy recovery ................................................................................................. 51 3.3.3 Eco-friendly road construction ........................................................................... 52 3.3.4 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 53 3.4 New mobility products & services ............................................................................. 54 3.4.1 Sharing Systems ................................................................................................ 54 3.4.2 Mobility as a service (MaaS) .............................................................................. 55 3.4.3 On-demand systems .......................................................................................... 56 3.4.4 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 57 3.5 Policies influencing the transport sector ................................................................... 59 3.5.1 Global environmental agreements ..................................................................... 59 3.5.2 EU transport policies .......................................................................................... 59 3.5.3 National policies ................................................................................................. 60 3.5.4 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 63 3.6 Economic production & organisational structures ..................................................... 65 3.6.1 Industry 4.0 ......................................................................................................... 65 3.6.2 Economic structural change ............................................................................... 66 3.6.3 Green Economy ................................................................................................. 67 3.6.4 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 69 3.7 Spatial organisation & structures .............................................................................. 70 3.7.1 Smart Cities as new “planned cities” ................................................................. 70 3.7.2 Eco-cities ............................................................................................................ 71 3.7.3 Geographical disparities ..................................................................................... 73 3.7.4 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 73 3.8 Society ....................................................................................................................... 75 3.8.1 Mobility behaviour .............................................................................................. 75 3.8.2 Behaviour change theories ...............................................................................