MODELLING THE THIRD VERSION OF THE CYCLING OMNIUM Loic Devoir a, Bahadorreza Ofoghi b, Dan Dwyer c, Clare MacMahon d, and John Zeleznikow a,e,f a Institute of Sport, Exercise, and Active Living, Victoria University, Australia b Department of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Australia c Deakin University, Australia d Swinburne University, Australia e College of Business, Victoria University, Australia f Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract This paper reports our recent findings on the analysis of riders’ performance patterns in the new (third version) Track Cycling Omnium. We have made use of statistical and machine learning techniques to analyse data in recent omnium competitions and compared the results with our previous findings on the older version of the omnium to understand how and whether the new omnium requires different skill sets and strategic planning for elite riders and their coaches. The results of our analysis shows that for both male and female riders, sprint abilities are more important than endurance abilities in the current omnium, contrary to the previous omnium where endurance abilities were slightly more prominent in female medal winners. In addition, the Flying Time Trial race remains the most important race for men while Individual Pursuit has become more important for female riders. Keywords : Track cycling omnium, rule changes, performance analysis 1. INTRODUCTION This work focuses upon track cycling omnium coaches as decision makers who identify talent and conduct strategic performance planning for cyclists that compete in the multi-event track cycling omnium. Such advice is given to coaches/riders before and during the omnium events. The goal is to select the best performing cyclists and support them to finish in the highest possible position in the competition. Track cycling omnium is a competition that was introduced by the International Cycling Union (UCI) in 2007. It originally consisted of five individual events. In December 2009, the UCI announced new changes to the omnium competition (addition of an extra event, the elimination race, and held over two days rather than the previous one) that took place for the first time in the 2010–2011 track cycling season and the 2011 World Cycling Championships. It was contested for the first time at an Olympic Games in London in 2012. The individual events in the second version of the omnium included: Flying Time Trial: 250m for men and women: Cyclists compete in a short flying lap that has traditionally been used for qualification in other cycling events (e.g., sprint competitions). Each rider completes their FTT separately. Points Race: 30km for men and 20km for women: This is a mass start event involving a large number of riders on the track at the same time. Every 10 laps, a sprint is held and the top four finishers are awarded 5, 3, 2, and 1 point(s), respectively. Any rider who takes a lap on the field is awarded 20 points for each lap taken. The rider with the most points is the winner of the event. Elimination Race: 24 riders and 50 laps for men and women: 24 riders compete in a race where every two laps, the last rider over the finish line is eliminated until only a single rider remains and is decided as the winner. Individual Pursuit: 4km for men and 3km for women: Two riders start a race from opposite sides of the track on the pursuit line at the bottom of the track. The riders start at the same time and both must complete the race distance to record a time for the ranking relative to the other cyclists. Scratch Race: 15km for men and 10km for women: All contestants start from a start point at the same time and need to complete a certain number of laps. If a rider gains an entire lap ahead of the other riders, she/he will have an advantage over the riders who have completed fewer laps. Kilometer Time Trial: 1km for men and 500m for women: Riders compete against the clock to secure the fastest time. Riders are sent out individually in set time intervals. Whilst still considered a sprint, the distances are considerably longer than those in the flying time trial event. Each omnium has 24 competitors. The winner of each event receives, 1 point, second 2 points etc. The points for each of the 6 events are summed together. The winner of this version of the cycling omnium was the competitor with the least number of points. The mixture of skills and levels of performance that is required in multiple-component competitions makes it difficult to determine what strategies and/or athletes best suit a plan to maximize the possibilities of winning medals in such competitions (Ofoghi, Zeleznikow, MacMahon, & Dwyer, 2010). Some example studies on multiple-component sports include the works by Zwols and Sierksma (2009), Kenny, Sprevak, Sharp, and Boreham (2005), and Cox and Dunn (2002) on decathlon, as well as Ofoghi, Dwyer, Zeleznikow, MacMahon, and Rehula (2016) and Cejuela, Pérez, Villa, Cortell, and Rodríguez (2008) on triathlon. In respect of track cycling omnium, we carried out a number of analyses in both of the old five-event and the second version (six-event) omniums to find winning performance patterns in the omnium with the aim of assisting coaches in decision making towards selecting the most appropriate riders to compete in the contest (Ofoghi, Zeleznikow, Dwyer, & MacMahon, 2013; Ofoghi, Zeleznikow, MacMahon, & Dwyer, 2011; Ofoghi et al., 2010), and to find the optimal performance patterns in terms of rankings in the omnium individual events before and during the omnium (Ofoghi, Zeleznikow, MacMahon, & Dwyer, 2013) to help cyclists strategize for finishing in the best overall position at the completion, given their performances to specific stages in the omnium. We also analysed the individual event Elimination Race to better understand how riders can avoid elimination in different stages of the event (Dwyer, Ofoghi, Huntsman, Rossitto, MacMahon, & Zeleznikow, 2013). In 2014, the omnium went through a third round of changes made by the UCI. Effective from June that year, the current omnium includes the same six events as in the second version of the omnium, held over 2 days. However, the order of the events has changed and it now consists of the Scratch Race, an Individual Pursuit, an Elimination Race, a Kilometer Time Trial, a Flying Time Trial, and a Points Race. For the first five events, the winner is awarded 40 points, the rider in the second place receives 38 points, etc. Riders who are ranked 21 st and below are awarded 1 point. In the sixth event (Points Race), cyclists add to and lose points from their points total based on the laps gained and lost (plus and minus 20 points) as well as the points they win in the sprints of the race ( A sprint is held every ten laps, with 5, 3, 2, and 1 point(s) being awarded to the top four finishers in each sprint) . The winner of the omnium is the rider who obtains the highest total points. To win the omnium, a rider must have completed every individual event in the omnium. The current research aimed at building on previous work on supporting decision making in the older versions of track cycling omnium and further developing the understanding of performance patterns in the current omnium in effect as of June 2014. More specifically, this paper has a focus on finding winning patterns in the current omnium, for both female and male riders, using statistical and machine learning techniques. From a practical point, we are interested in whether the rule changes for the third version of the cycling omnium have led to changed outcomes. 2. METHODS RESEARCH QUESTIONS The first step of our analysis was to determine how the new rules effective since 2014 have impacted the omnium competition. This led to the question of how the riders would have finished in previous omniums if they had to compete with the rules that apply to the current version of the omnium. Second, our intuition was that the overall score that riders collect in the Points Race has now become more important than before as this is currently the last individual event in the omnium. Therefore, another question was to determine if riders reaching a high score in the Points Race will be more influential, than previously, in the overall standings. As a generalization of this question, we then decided to find the significance of each individual event for the overall standings of riders in the new omnium as compared with the previous omnium. Following our previous work on the second version of the omnium, we also wanted to understand which type of cycling expertise, i.e., sprint or endurance abilities, plays a more important role in the current omnium for both male and female riders. DATA COLLECTION To find answers to the afore-mentioned questions, we collected the results of all omnium competitions since 2010 in the UCI World Cup, UCI World Championship events and the 2012 Summer Olympics. We decided to not consider the results of competitions prior to 2010 as there is a significant gap between the scoring systems of the first and the third versions of the omnium. Further, the second and third versions of the omnium include the same six events and are held over two days. Therefore, we only focused on the results of the second and third versions of the omnium for all of the analyses in this paper. We only looked at the rankings of riders in each individual event and their overall placing for the first version of the omnium.