April 2013 Volume 9 Issue 4 What Really Wins Money

***** An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems *****

Hi, isolation, and I hope makes a solid argument for you including Maria’s Master Plan in your The football season is winding down and I open the laying plans. newsletter by reminding you of some more football betting strategies we’ve uncovered this season, to The Patriarch offers us a great one-a-day backing add to your betting portfolio for next season. system for the new Flat season, as well as an over 2.5 goals value betting strategy, which should prove very As the football season winds down, the horse racing effective for next season’s football. Flat season kicks off. There’s a great price signal that I call the ‘W signal’ which can really help you lock Finally. The Cash Master puts the finishing touches in to horses likely to run well. You’ll need access to to the newsletter by updating you on the best systems Fairbot Betfair betting software. It’s a great strategy and tipsters out there. for you each-way bettors and for those who like to Enjoy focus on the big meetings and better quality races. And speaking of quality races, our very own Stat- man has looked at the BHA handicappers’ work with specific focus on top-rated horses, and has come up with some great backing and laying angles for you to profit from. Clive Keeling I take a two-pronged attack at my Home-Grown Football Trading Systems Updates. The first article looks at traditional simple staking accompanying my home-grown ideas. Winning Football The second article takes the Maria Staking Plan in Strategies of 2012/13 Inside this issue: Horse Racing Strategy and How to Use Forget Steamers and Drifters! Why You Should Look Out for ‘W-Horses’ to Make Your Racing Them Next Season Selections ...... 4 The Statman Presents For Profit How to Piggy-Back the Professional Handicap- s each football season comes and goes, there are pers ...... 7 new betting and trading discoveries that can be System Updates Acarried forward to the next season’s punting. How Much Could You Have Made From Our Easy- to-Use ‘Home Grown’ Betting Systems? ...... 9 What has the 2012/2013 season revealed? The Patriarch presents... This season saw real progress with the D-R-T philos- One-a-Day Profits and Making Money From ophy with the introduction and huge success of live Goals ...... 12 market chats as the matches were being played. As a Reviews refresher, D-R-T stands for: The Cash Master’s Systems and DELAY – no longer do we have to place any bets Tipsters Update ...... 14 before the match kicks off. (Remember the old days

please turn over... where we’d have to place our selections before the match was due to kick off, then sweat it out for 90 minutes?). We can actually delay our entry into the market, and back at higher odds and lay at lower odds, when we... REACT – react to goals and red cards, OR no goals and no red cards. In this way, we can back a favourite if the underdog has scored a goal at better odds than were available pre-match, or lay a correct score or team which is unexpected and guarantee profits when we... TRADE – the ideal is to trade rather than bet. Get in and out quickly. This D-R-T philosophy is something you should take in to the 2013/2014 season. I don’t know about you, but 3.15 is an awfully short Where else can you back Marseille at 1/3 shot at 17.5 price with which to back a 0-0 for 45 minutes of a on Betfair and win? Or lay the 0-0 in two Olympia- match featuring two sides with some real attacking kos matches at 1.04, and WIN! That was the equiva- flare and plenty still to play for. What do you think? lent of backing a team with £4 and winning £100! I told you it was all about value backs and lays! Why not lay the 0-0, effectively backing all other score lines for one half of football? When we back and lay at value odds like these, season long, we are far more likely to come out on Taking it one step further, why not use the D-R-T phi- top at the end of the season. The key is research, losophy (delay-react-trade) and wait for a concerted and if you are so inclined, a retrospective visit to my period of 0-0 in the first half of the match? Why? research at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk can The odds to lay the 0-0 will be shorter than the show you how to cover all bases and make research (already short) 3.2 odds which are available pre- precise. match. And for added comfort, use the oft-quoted Another distinction made this season was the laying www.soccerstats.com to look at first-half statistics of the 0-0 correct score in live football matches. and goal-scoring times. Here’s a quick four-step research plan for half-time 0-0 score laying: By laying 0-0, we are effectively backing either team to score a goal at some stage. Choose the right 1) At www.soccerstats.com, bring up both teams’ matches where goals are expected, and exploit the stats. In the results table, hover your mouse cursor lower prices in-play when a goal does not appear for over the most recent matches to determine the fre- a concerted period of time. quency of goals scored before half-time in recent matches: 0-0 can be layed in either of two markets: 1. The ‘half-time score’ market 2. The ‘correct score’ market The ‘half-time score’ market Below is a screenshot of the ‘half-time score’ market in a typical Premiership match. What immediately springs to mind?

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2013 2 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com

Here I have hovered my mouse cursor over the Tottenham have had only one 0-0 at home and only most recent match involving Tottenham which saw two 0-0 scorelines all season. More worryingly, Man two goals scored before half-time. To make it more City have had three 0-0 scorelines away from home. accurate, focus on the home team’s home matches, 4) Look at the performance of the teams and compare and the away team’s away matches. In six of Spurs’ it to rival teams around their opponents in the league last seven matches (and five of their last six home by using the ‘league table ranking’ table. matches), there has been at least one goal before half-time. City’s last two matches saw 0-0 at half- time. In their last six matches, the latest goal scored came in the 32nd minute. Doing the same with Manchester City and you’ll notice that they have a lot of 0-0 half-time score lines recently:

In all of Tottenham’s matches against the top-seven, both sides have scored. Manchester City away to the top-five teams have only conceded one goal in three matches. You can see this research in greater detail on the 2) Scroll down to the ‘goal times’ tables, and focus resource page video at: on the home team’s home goal times and the away www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage team’s away goal times: Bottom line You should by now have a veritable arsenal of systems and strategies to enable you to profit from football week in and week out. I have covered the foundations such as research, patterns and sequences and standout stats in full, and this year we have progressed onto both teams to score, how to create an in-play accumulator to bag some great odds wins, and here, correct scores – in particular laying the 0-0 either before half-time or over the 90 minutes. IF you Looking at the ‘goals by half (home)’ stats for Spurs, look at the odds to lay 0-0 half-time score in particu- we see that 67% (2/3) of their goals are scored in the lar, it does appeal somewhat. The odds are generally second half, and nearly 2/3 of goals are conceded in around the 3.3 mark. the second half. These figures are not as pronounced Delaying entry into the market can really lower these with Manchester City’s away form. If we’re looking odds further and provide value. Do note this half- to lay the 0-0 at half-time, we would prefer to see time 0-0 laying for next season. How many games do 67% of Spurs goals at home scored in the first half. teams play where either team does not conjure up a 3) Scroll down to the scores tables and note the inci- goal before half-time? There are few. dence of 0-0 score lines overall: The ‘correct score’ market From another perspective entirely, waiting for 0-0 at half-time can enable us to lay the 0-0 in the ‘correct score’ market, effectively buying time – i.e. the 45 minutes of the second half – for either team to score. This can be a very lucrative approach to your betting. After all, the objective of the two teams playing is to score a goal. 3 please turn over... As I write, here is a perfect example of a match So what about a happy medium? Horses that punters which well presents the idea behind laying the 0-0 cannot make their mind up about. correct score and using the D-R-T philosophy. I call them ‘W horses’... Why? It’s the German Bundesliga 2. Hertha Berlin are 1.22 Let’s blow up the ‘W’: to win and are playing at home against second-bot- tom Sandhausen. Rankings-wise, this match featured 1st versus 17th of 18 teams. When these two last met, the score was 1-6 to Hertha Berlin. What are you going to do, therefore, if the match is 0-0 at half-time? Further, what are you going to do if the match is 0-0 after 80 minutes? Note the arrows? One arrow points down (signalling If I were you, I would lay the 0-0 score line at value a horse whose price shortens) and the next moves odds as late as possible – value because the odds are upward (signalling a drifter); then the price shortens, considerably shorter than were available pre-match. then lengthens again. And here’s what happened: With these ‘W horses’, the market cannot make its mind up. Neither the backers nor the layers are the dominant force. I decided to look at backing these horses where there is a split view, largely because the odds of these I trust this kind of in-play betting will form part of kinds of horses in good-quality races at good-quality your football strategies for the next football season. famous race courses were very appealing. We have a number of football-specific niches at our And how do we find these horses? That’s where Fair- disposal now, which, when married with research, bot comes in, I’m afraid. You see, Fairbot builds up really will make you money over a season. an individualised price graph for each horse. And it is there that we search out for the ‘W horses’. Horse Racing Strategy Incidentally, Fairbot is betting software specifically for use at www.betfair.com and www.betdaq.co.uk, Forget Steamers and and enhances the betting and trading experience. Drifters! Why You The software is available at www.binteko.com and comes highly recommended if you use the betting Should Look Out exchanges for your betting activities. Here are some examples of ‘W’ horses’ from Fair- for ‘W-Horses’ to bot’s horse racing markets... Make Your Racing The screenshot below shows a typical Betfair horse Selections race, as presented through Fairbot: had a bit of a brainwave, as you do. I was not in the bath though – if the laptop slipped, I would Ihave been shouting something a little more offensive than ‘Eureka’. It’s all to do with the Betfair price markets for horse racing, and Fairbot’s graphs. I seemed to recall an old urban myth that steamers (horses whose prices shorten giving the impression they are popular with Betfair users) lose as often, or more so, than they win. Similarly, laying drifters (horses whose prices rise) does not seem to be profit- able either. In the previous race there are two potential qualify- 4 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com ing horses for the ‘W’ price signal. Not as pronounced as earlier, but notice the dip as arrowed above. Ideally, we want to see a ‘W’, but Can you see them at first glance? If we go through the here we have a ‘V’. The price has flat-lined some- price graph for each horse, I hope you can see how what after that dip and rise, which suggests that the easy it is at least to eliminate non-qualifiers first... layers and the backers are on an equal footing. Midnight Sequel – this horse’s odds are not really The small lines you see (bracketed above) are further showing a discernible pattern. examples of indecision in the market. Shirataki – this horse is very definitely being backed First Lieutenant wins! exclusively. 1 First Lieutenant 7/2 Silver Six’s odds seem to be rising consistently, as do 2 Menorah 14/1 Silver Markzah’s. 3 Silviniaco Conti EvensF Time Square has potential, as does Smirfys Silver. This was an eight-runner race, and First Lieutenant I plumped for Gabrial’s Hope and Madame Tessa as was near the head of the market. In this instance, the the most telling ‘W’s in the price graph: signal can act as a confirming tool for a horse already near favouritism. Here’s another example where I have not pointed out the potential ‘W’ signals. Notice the ‘W’? Take a look at the screen, eliminate those horses who obviously do not quality, and from the remainder, see if you agree with me on which horses have potential:

Notice the up and down nature of the price graph? We want to see this indecision, as it means the back- ers and layers cannot make their minds up. The result?

I shortlisted Fox Run and Oh Dear Oh Dear (but ‘oh dear’, look at the price: 110! The market does not expect).

Gabrial’s Hope gave us a great run for our money, finishing a close 2nd at 5/1. The horse’s price at 5/1 We want to see ‘down arrow, up arrow, down arrow, suggests each-way betting is ideal. up arrow’, as we do with Fox Run. This was another Here’s a less subtle qualifier: good run from Fox Run, finishing second, so we are getting closer! 1 Karinga Dancer 8/11F 2 Fox Run 11/4 3 Hollow Penny 6/1 NR: Garryleigh (IRE) 5 please turn over... The ideal races to look at for this particular system are two-fold: 1) Look at races held at big race meetings such as Cheltenham, Aintree, Ascot, Epsom and any top- class Group races (as mentioned in the Statman’s There does seem to be some indecision here, don’t article). The Racing Post can actually help you you think? here (online), as it shortlists worldwide stakes And with Thousand Stars: races each day. (Our focus will be on UK and Irish racecourses).

Not as pronounced as ’s ‘W’, but in a race of only nine runners, the horse is well worth each- way support. This is a nine-runner race, so ideal for each-way betting. Aintree is the venue for the Grand National, so any meeting there is usually well 2) Look at smallish field races. I would look to a attended and the race was a Grade 1 Hurdle, so the quality is there. maximum of 12 runners. That said, if there is a big field, and the betting suggests only a few horses are 1 Zarkandar 11/2 fancied, I would look to these races. 2 The New One 11/4F 3 Thousand Stars 10/1 Here are some examples from Aintree – a racecourse which tends to attract the top horses and trainers, and And here’s a race from Taunton. Eight runners sug- consequently greater interest from the betting public. gests it is an ideal race for each-way betting. Can you Again, I will leave it up to you to decide on the horse identify the potential ‘W’ signal before I reveal the or horses which may qualify as ‘W’ horses... horse(s) which might qualify?

Benedictus and Prince Massini qualify here. Do you agree with me that Zarkandar and Thousand Stars show most promise? The New One’s odds are just dropping. Similarly, Grandouet’s odds seem to rise. Countrywide Flame’s price has flattened out, might qualify but the price is generally being supported. Saphir River could qualify but the odds 1 Benedictus 9/1 suggest this horse has three legs and the jockey is 2 Coombe Hill 5/2 riding blindfolded. 3 King Cyrus 6/1 6 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com

And here’s another for you to practise with: practice, these kinds of price graphs will become apparent and I would urge you to paper trade initially from two perspectives: 1) Each-way betting, which will allow us to profit when a horse places. 2) The trading perspective. I have noticed that a number of qualifiers which, whilst not winning at the end of the race, run very well during the race and consequently their price drops. By backing pre-race and looking to lay at a lower price in play, we can secure a nice risk-free profit.

The Statman Presents

This is a 13-runner race, so is just on the boundary How to Piggy-Back of qualifying. The fact that a favourite is only 5.00 (4/1) suggests that the ‘W’ signal might be worth fol- the Professional lowing in a race without a strong favourite. Did you shortlist the same horses as me? Handicappers his month, the Statman lets the professionals do the work and then shows us how to exploit their Textremely thorough research: “As I mentioned in my last Statman article, even I am getting a bit frustrated with laying systems, even though they invariably start off as some sort of back- ing concept that fails to work out over time. This month, I am determined to find something that makes a profit from backing the selections that come out of the statistical mincer. I have even concluded that contrary to popular belief, there are people out there who know more about racing than me. Now don’t worry, I am not going to point you in No Likey, Helium and Arctic Watch are the qualifiers the direction of Pricewise from The Racing Post, a here. In this case, we get a first and a second: tipster from one of the daily papers (though the Inde- 1 Helium 9/1 pendent is as good as it gets), or even some dodgy 2 No Likey 11/2 phone number. 3 Dragon’s Den 4/1F I am thinking more about making the most of the NR: Khazium (IRE), Scampi Boy (IRE),Sun Quest true professionals – those with almost unlimited Bottom line resources, a staff of many, computers, software, video replays, personal knowledge and a full-time For those of you who own Fairbot, do keep an eye position as well. I am, of course, talking about the out for these ‘W’ horses – horses who are in neu- professional handicappers. tral territory as far as the backers and the layers are concerned. Employed by the BHA (British Horseracing Author- ity), it is their task (difficult as it may be) to allocate The absolute ideal would be to look at big meetings a rating to every horse who has either won a race or such as Aintree and Cheltenham, as well as races of attempted to on three or more occasions – and we a decent quality, such as Group races and High-Class all know that is where the handicap weights come races. from in races we love and watch, such as the Grand Limit yourself to each-way betting and shortish National, Lincoln, Cesarewitch and so on. In those fields. Twelve runners is the ideal maximum. After races, the horses are allocated differing weights to 7 please turn over... equalise their chances (well, in theory), but what Everything is going according to plan. As we lower if we use those same ratings in other races – ones our sights, the quality horses fail to have quite such where the weights are NOT altered; the non-hand- an impact on the Winners’ Circle. icaps (both in the United Kingdom and in Ireland For one last look, how about maidens – there must be to be exact)? How accurate are the professionals at money to be made there? predicting the winners based on their ratings? Maidens only As you can imagine, there are a list of types to look There’s money to be made alright – this time by at first – Maidens (for horses who have yet to win a laying all the top-rated maidens; the profit figure that race), Conditions stakes, Auction stakes, Weight for way would keep me happy for quite some time! age, Listed races and even Group races, so let’s break those down to something a little easier to handle and races look at them one at a time for our ‘first pass’ at look- Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Rate Betfair Starting Starting ing for a profitable angle. Price Price Group races (One, Two and Three) – blindly back- 2737 468 17.10% -£36.29 -£485.42 ing the top rated on official ratings (OR) for approxi- The lowest figure yet – something for the layers mately the last 10 years: among you? Group One races only Conditions races Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Rate Betfair Starting Starting Rate Betfair Starting Starting Price Price Price Price 5054 511 18.05% -£248.40 -£1019.92 451 114 25.28% +£85.38 +£20.24 Last and very much least, another laying concept Well why not start with some good news for a accidentally discovered which I will add to the others change? Blindly backing the top-rated horse in all in my conclusions below. Group One races at any distance on any ground will show you a tasty little profit over the years. Bottom line So how about Group Two races? The evidence is overwhelming as far as Group One and Group Two top-rated horses is concerned. This Group Two races only time, let’s look at their combined stats: Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Group One and Two combined Rate Betfair Starting Starting Price Price Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss 463 115 24.84% +£92.64 +£38.77 Rate Betfair Starting Starting Price Price More good news – there is even more money to be 914 229 25% +£178.02 +£59.01 made from Group Two races. Unusually, I have looked at the above figures and Group Three races only tried to break them down further – firstly by course, Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss then by distance – and even by going, but I cannot Rate Betfair Starting Starting beat the figures as they stand. Price Price Whatever I do, though, thank goodness they actually 753 168 22.31% -£18.63 -£96.52 show a profit – as I promised last month. Group Three races do not follow the trend in general. If you back every horse top rated on the official Now we need to see if it gets worse as the quality ratings (by the official handicapper) in every Group lowers. Do the higher-class horses simply run to One or Two race on Betfair, you would have made form more often (which was always my suspicion)? £178.02 profit – not bad at all in the circumstances Listed class only and a backing statistic that makes a profit at last! Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss For those looking to make even more money how- Rate Betfair Starting Starting ever, we revert back to the old laying system once Price Price again (sorry, but stats are stats). If you LAY every 1327 320 24.11% -£130.94 -£213.28 horse which is top rated on official ratings (often 8 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com annotated as ‘OR’) in the following race types Fixed liability laying is the most risk-averse staking (clearly annotated in the race title): Group Three; plan. As you can see in the graph below from www. Listed; Maiden; Novice; Conditions; you would have stakingmachine.com, there is a hint that the profits the combined figures of: are rising slowly: Races Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Rate Betfair Starting Starting Price Price 9871 1467 14.86% -£434.26 -£1815.14 Not bad at all considering the circumstances and cer- tainly something for everyone to think about when working out their next set of bets if the considered races are included in your calculations. Finally, I will answer a question from a previous arti- cle regarding hurdling horses pulled up last time out and their frankly appalling record at the . I was asked what the (simple) stats were for all courses over the last 10 years – so here you are! Qualif- Winners Strike Profit/Loss Profit/Loss iers Rate Betfair Starting Starting Price Price The simplest method of laying is to level stakes, and if we lay the favourite in the last race of the day at 19470 811 4.17% -£2081.11 -£8302.26 maximum lay odds of 4.00, the profit is impressive. Another new laying system for you – talk about A 50-point profit over some 365 bets augurs well for value for money this month! That’s three statistical the future. The graph shows the profit progression: options for the price of only one! Please do view the accompanying video: www.wha- treallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage, which will show you how to find the official rating for horses in the standard Racing Post race cards.

System Updates How Much Could You Have Made From Our Easy-to- Use ‘Home Grown’ Betting Systems? Novice Hurdle third-favourites This is another simple lay system to follow and have done a separate article on the excellent seems to have a good foundation for consistent performance of the Maria Staking Plan with the profits. As the title suggests, we look to lay the third- Imajority of my ‘Home-Grown’ lay systems. There favourite in Novice Hurdles in the UK and Ireland. are other more-conventional staking plans which are also profiting, and I focus on these in this update. Level stakes laying is the simplest staking plan. Laying all qualifying third-favourites in Novice Lay the favourite in last race of Hurdles has turned £100 into £837 over one year and the day four months. There has been a gradual increase in the betting bank over that period. The goal of the Home-Grown Systems is to find betting systems which are simplicity themselves to The problem with laying all qualifying bets is the implement. And it doesn’t come much easier, surely, liability, even to just £10 stakes. Some of the odds of than laying the favourite in the last race of the day. qualifying bets have been as high as 43, which leads 9 please turn over... to very large liabilities. It only takes one of these big- to some horses. Add to this the choice of Seller races priced horses to win its race and our laying profits (generally unreliable horses), Claiming Stakes races will be decimated. (unpredictability is their middle name), and Maiden races (horses with inexperience), and we have a There is an alternative approach we can employ, and recipe for laying success. that is to set what I call an ‘odds limiter’. Lay at odds of 7 and under Do we? It’s a possibility. These races have shown a profit since the start of 2013, but laying the favou- By laying to level stakes at odds of 7 and under, we rites in each of these races is not as smooth a pro- know our maximum liability to £10 stakes will be gression as I would like. £60. This is tolerable given the strike rate of 86% over 378 bets, which almost ensures a long-term profit if continuing in that vein over time. Level stakes of £10 per lay has turned £100 into £814 – a 71-point profit. Irish Bumpers If we head off to the Emerald Isle and focus specifi- cally on their Jumps meetings and the solitary race on an Irish Jumps card which is not run over hurdles or chase fences, then we might have a reasonable shot at a long-term and profitable lay system. The races in question are National Hunt Flat races. Since the beginning of the year, if we lay favourites in these Irish Flat races (which are typically run as the last races at Irish Jumps meetings), then simple level The real profit spurt has arrived since the 18th stakes laying has produced a 20-point profit since March. Is this due to the change from Jumps to the the start of the year. Level stakes of £10 has turned Flat season and the greater volume of All-weather a nominal £100 starting bank into £305. The profit races? Who knows? progression is nice and steady so far (as you can see I’ll continue to monitor because, as you will read in below), and we are a third of the way into the year: the Maria Staking Plan article, laying the favourites in these races is profiting well with that staking plan. New ideas? I have a whole host of new betting ideas, predomi- nantly focussed on horse racing. Here’s a sample of what I am looking at: ✓✓ There are a lot of ‘apparent’ two-horse races. How, therefore, do these first and second-favou- rites perform over time? At first glance, I can tell you that backing the favourite to place-only in these races seems to have an excellent strike rate. This will be covered more accurately in later editions of What Really Wins Money. ✓✓ I am currently working my way through all of the eight and nine-horse races I have recorded, All-weather Sellers Claimers Maidens in an effort to uncover an automatic each-way strategy which we can implement for long-term, I thought of the above combination in my betting lab easy, quick profits. I will be noting how each of as being reasonable for a lay strategy. Why? the eight (or nine) horses have performed, specif- Well, All-weather surfaces can be chalk and cheese ically in finishing in the first three in the betting. 10 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com

I hope there’s some great patterns to uncover The graph is shown below: there. I am currently looking at the favourite’s performance in these races. ✓✓ There are more laying systems on the horizon which seek to exploit what I call ‘vulnerable favourites’, or at least perceived ‘vulnerable favourites’. ✓✓ Can we use betting cycles (as referred to last month) to profit using a ‘stop at a winner/loser’ betting strategy? You’ll find out soon! Please do read the accompanying article which features these laying systems and their performances using the Maria Staking Plan. The findings make very interesting reading. A new take on an old lay plan? A 67% strike rate is not normally associated with From an old staking plan... success and the Maria Staking Plan. But with average Long-term betting system followers will probably odds of 2.89 and potential losses which are strictly be aware of this unique price banded laying staking controlled by the Maria price band, the nominal plan. I return to it in light of its profitable perfor- £3,000 betting bank that is used with the staking plan (of course, you do not need £3,000 with which to mance with the majority of my laying ideas from the start), has turned into £4,156. Betting Lab. Laying third-favourites in Let me offer you a reminder of the Maria Staking Plan and then share with you its implementation and Novice Hurdles profitability for a number of lay strategies. The Maria Staking Plan performs superbly when we lay third-favourites in Novice Hurdles and at lay I will let Maria herself explain: ‘To summarise, with odds of 7.00 and under. examples based on a starting bank of £3,000 (if you’re reckless enough to try them, you can scale up An 86% strike rate for laying has turned a £3,000 or down proportionally to your own bank): betting bank into £4,483. Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank – backer’s stake Irish Bumpers £30 (my liability under £75). Irish Bumpers are also known as National Hunt Flat Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank – backer’s races, and appear usually at the end of a Jumps card. stake £18 (my liability £46.80-£115.20). By laying the favourites in these types of races using the Maria Staking Plan, a 71% strike rate has helped Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank – backer’s turn £3,000 into £3,593 since 2nd November 2012. stake £12 (my liability £78-£132).’ The solid performance of the Maria Staking Plan My interest in the Maria Staking Plan has been continues as we look at specific races. renewed because of its excellent performance with Laying favourites in Maiden races, Claiming Stakes a number of my Home-Grown Betting Systems. Let races and Selling races on the All-weather only, has me take you through them and the application of the profited well with the Maria Staking Plan. Again, Maria Staking Plan to them. using that nominal £3,000 starting bank, the betting bank has grown to £3,623 since January 2013. Laying the favourite in the last race This is extremely encouraging. of the day What about focussing specifically on laying favou- By laying the favourite in the last race of the day rites in Maiden races only? The Maria Staking Plan with lay odds of 4 maximum, the Maria Staking Plan performs very well with maiden favourites on the has performed admirably. All-weather. 11 please turn over... A 55% strike rate only seems low for a laying can use The Racing Post – either paper or paid-for system, but remember we are laying favourites only, online – or, I’ve found a way to get exactly the same and this has turned £3,000 into £3,623. selections for free, if you have an Internet connec- Bottom line tion. So, we’re all set for one selection a day (most days) for the rest of the Flat. There is so much to recommend the Maria Staking I’ll give the Racing Post version first. Go to the Plan. Here are some of the benefits: ‘signposts’ page and look for the ‘most popular nap’ ✓✓ Liabilities are always controlled. The price band- feature, as seen below: ing element of this staking plan ensures this. At all stages, the liability aspect is firmly controlled. ✓✓ There is no need for a big strike rate laying system as previously thought. This staking plan has worked effectively laying favourites in cer- tain races with a relatively poor strike rate (for a lay system) of 50-odd per cent. ✓✓ The Maria Staking Plan works utilising the power of compounding. If you’ve been a fol- lower of What Really Wins Money for any length of time, you will know that compounding is a There you will find one or more horses named, and superb way to approach your betting. As the bet- the number of times each has been napped. If the ting bank grows, stakes will grow in proportion; number of naps is less than four, then ignore them and as stakes grow, returns will grow. As returns and we have no selection for the day (as you can are added to the betting bank, so the compound- see above, where there are seven horses all with two ing cycle will continue. naps each). If there is a single horse with four naps or If you are following a laying system, I would suggest more, then that is the day’s selection. that a cursory nod towards the Maria Staking Plan will not go unrewarded. It has surprised me in its Sometimes you will find more than one horse with effectiveness at allowing a profit through all of my four naps or more and that is when we have to current ‘Home-Grown’ laying systems. narrow it down to one selection only (as you can see below)... The Patriarch presents... One-a-Day Profits and Making Money From Goals n this month’s article, betting system addict the Patriarch adapts his one-a-day betting plan for Ithe new Flat season, and delves into the excellent football stats site www.soccerstats.com to provide In the 4.20 p.m. Cheltenham, Big Easy was the 5/1 you with an ‘easy-as-you-like’ over 2.5 goals betting favourite in a 17-runner race (and won at 5/1). strategy. One-a-day for the new Flat season In the 2.55 p.m. Newmarket, Ghurair – the evens favourite – appeared in a 15-runner race (and came Here then is my contribution to the opening of the 3rd). new Flat season. It’s my improved version of the In the 3.30 p.m. Newmarket, the Cheka at 4/1 came most popular nap idea that I introduced in my Janu- 8th in a 9-runner race. ary article, and is now a fully workable system with a strict one-a-day selection – but not every day – and a We simply go for the best value – that is, the horse at simple staking plan that should suit it perfectly. You the biggest price. 12 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com

In the above example, Big Easy was the biggest However, there is an easier and better way: go to the price, and won at 5/1. If only they could all come Sporting Life site, click on ‘racing’, and then click home like the Big Easy! on ‘race cards’. Go through each race on each of the day’s race cards, and along with the usual informa- Should the prices be equal, then we’ll have to use the tion on each horse there is a column that lists the usual tie-break rules, in this order: number of naps (if any) that each horse has. Make Take the selection in the smallest field. If still the a note of any horse that has four naps or more, and same, choose the horse with the best form last time from them you can then make your selection. out. If you wish, you can use the Sporting Life betting Finally, if still no clear selection, take the horse run- forecast, or go back to The Racing Post for theirs. ning in the most valuable race. Sniffing out value in football bets It very rarely comes to this rule, and I’ve never seen I’m moving on now to my football idea. But first a it going beyond it. Stake one point per selection, question for you... increasing by one point after a loser, but returning to one point after a winner. Go as far as five points For this particular outcome in a match between teams but no further. Stay on five points if necessary until a A and B, it has happened in 71% of the games for winner is backed and then return to one point. team A at home and 80% for team B away, current season. Would you back that outcome in their present Go on from month to month, so that if you have a game? two-point loser on the 30th April, then your next bet is three points on the 1st May. Finally, no bets I imagine your answer would be a definite ‘yes’, on Sundays: not on religious grounds, but simply depending on the odds available. because there are fewer correspondents giving tips on With a combined 75% chance of it happening, you Sundays. To make things absolutely clear, I’ll give would expect the odds to be around 1-3. Anything the rules in tabulated form here once again: more than that would represent value. 1. Using The Racing Post, go to the ‘signposts’ Imagine my surprise a week or two ago when I got page and there find the ‘most popular nap’ odds of just under evens (1.97, to be exact) for that feature. bet. And it won. Time now to explain my bet and see 2. If the most popular nap has less than four naps, if we can find some more at such value odds. then no bet. The bet is over 2.5 goals. The two teams in my 3. A single horse with four naps or more is the day’s bet were Swansea (at home) who had 71% of their selection. games scoring over 2.5 goals and Tottenham (away) 4. If there is more than one horse, take the one at who had 80% of their games scoring more than 2.5 the biggest price in the RP betting forecast. goals (i.e. three goals or more were scored). We find 5. If equal, take the one in the smallest field. this information in the soccer stats site (www.soccer- stats.com) that has already been referred to in previ- 6. If still the same, take the horse with the best form ous issues. As we said there, click on the St George’s figure last time out. Cross flag at the top of the page, marked ‘En’ for the 7. If still tied (very rare), take the horse in the most Premier League. Then click on whatever team in the valuable race. league that you want and a whole lot of information 8. No betting on Sundays. will appear. Scroll down to ‘scoring’, and there you If you have no access to The Racing Post paper and will find the information regarding games where don’t want to pay a subscription for the information more than 2.5 goals were scored. Do the same for online, then there is another way to find the same the away team, making sure that it is the away games selections. You can find the ‘Naps Table’ freely figure that you note. In both cases I’d be looking for online at both The Racing Post and Sporting Life figures of over 60%. sites. There, you can count the naps for yourself, but As I write, the two best home figures for over 2.5 it is a bit laborious and you can easily miscount – as goals are those of Man Utd and Wigan, and away, I’ve found out. Tottenham and Liverpool. 13 please turn over... Man Utd at home: more accurate picture of current form if we concen- trate on, let’s say, the last five home games and the last five away ones. Make sure you watch the accompanying video for a tour of www.soccerstats.com.

Reviews The Cash Master’s Wigan at home: Systems and Tipsters Update t’s been a fairly quiet month on the systems and tipsters front, but I have six great systems and Iservices nevertheless. All past reviews can be found over at www.cash-master.com. Betting Pro Lays Tottenham away from home: Well this service is going remarkably well. Since I started using it on 29th January, I’ve had the follow- ing results: Bets: 142 Successful: 111 Unsuccessful: 31 Strike Rate: 78.2 Average Odds: 3.93 Total Profit: £733.08

Liverpool away from home: I’ve been betting flat £25 stakes. So, in 12 weeks, it’s made £733 profit and it only takes about a minute to set up each morning. And the ridiculous thing is that this costs only £6.99 a week and you get a full refund if you don’t make a profit in that week. It looks like one I’ll definitely be adding to my port- folio. Win Each Way Let’s say you’ve found two teams with figures of 66% and 64%, making 65% overall. To find On Monday, Lester reopened the doors on this the true decimal odds, divide 100 by that figure of system for a short time. 65%. The result is 1.54. If Betfair (or anybody else) On Tuesday, he advised bets on Corn Snow and is offering higher odds than that, then you have a Glenreef which both obliged at 9/4 and 7/1 respec- value bet. tively. Of course, you won’t always win, but by backing at He advised the bets the night before and at the time, value odds you should win in the long run. no odds were available, but Corn Snow was as high I have one slight reservation about my idea that I as 4/1 in the morning. think I should investigate. The figures used are for Yesterday, he advised a bet on Discovery Bay which the whole season, but I wonder if we might get a won at 7/1 to add to the already impressive results. 14 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com

The second bet of the day didn’t win but I’m not – so what profit could have been attributed to those, I greedy! could not say.) That takes the points total in less than a month since To be fair to this service, we do seem to have had a launch to over 20 at Industry Starting Price betting poor run during this review – with average monthly to level stakes and adds to the 10 years of superb results from the two previous years showing profits profits. generally in the ‘tens’ of points. But of course, that’s just the way these reviews go sometimes. Eight hundred and ninety-five points since 2008 at Betfair Starting Price which includes almost 70 Despite this, I will reiterate the very impressive points this year so far, which means the system results this service achieved over the Cheltenham shows no signs of slowing down. Festival period, which amounted to 71.5 points in four days! Membership is limited and if you want to come on board the risk is on him because he offers a full Your first month is charged at a discounted rate of money-back guarantee. £15 (+VAT), and subsequent monthly subscriptions cost £30 (+VAT). For this you get access to the web- DoomMeister Trading Lounge site and a regular email update from Nicky to advise I wanted to give you a reminder and inform new of the latest selections posted on the Bet Alchemist readers about DoomMeister Trading Lounge. website. This one garnered more positive comments and The sign-up deal also includes a 60-day money- praise from readers than most of the other services back guarantee (your payment is submitted via put together. ClickBank). They also offer a discounted quarterly subscription rate of £79 (+VAT), which obviously Rather annoyingly, real life is getting in the way of represents even better value. me being able to use this too often, but I do regularly check in there to make sure everything is running Once signed up, simply log in, take the selections to as before; and I’m delighted to say that it is. Doom your BOG bookmaker and place your bets. really is extremely good at what he does and makes Overall, if you are a bettor who is prepared to take extremely good money for members. a more relaxed stance in your day-to-day betting activities, then perhaps Bet Alchemist is the product As stated in my original review of this, you do need for you. to be available to trade live in-play during games and you do need to use your own trading strategies on Given the meagre return over the course of the last the markets Doom advises. It’s not really targeted at three months, I would normally have offered a neu- brand-new traders, but you certainly don’t need to be tral rating, but assuming the historical results I have an expert either – there are plenty of friendly people seen are legit – and I have no reason to doubt that if you need help. they are otherwise – I feel confident this is merely a seasonal blip in proceedings. On balance though, If you understand trading and just want some advice I am going to suggest that this service is given an on which market to trade, then you really should give APPROVED rating on the merits of its results this at least a try. It’s based on a German-language achieved during the Cheltenham Festival, which I am website but all trading advice is given in English. sure you will agree, are astonishing! Bet Alchemist Betting Automation Well, another month has rolled up and I figure it is We reviewed this neat bit of software nearly three time I give my verdict on the tipping service offered years ago now, so I thought it was time for an update, by the Bet Alchemist. as the last update was in 2011. From the last posting on 8th March, there have been First of all, I can confirm it’s continued to perform 41 selections, resulting in a profit of 4.6 pts. exactly as it did in previous years. So the bank stands in profit to the tune of a mere 2.8 One of the easiest and most effective methods of pts! Not quite what I was expecting, to be truthful. using Racing Synergy is to simply back the value (To be clear: my review for this service EXCLUDED horses with the bookmakers as they are identified coverage of the ANTE-POST bets, of which there (they call this the ‘Maximum Return’ option in the were a few in number over the course of the review software). 15 please turn over... Here’s the results for 2012: It’s a cracking little system and if you are free to bet live in the in-play market, then you really should Number of bets: 6,545 have a play with this. Number of winning bets: 1,103 Stake per bet: £50 Total staked: £327,250 Publisher Recommends Total returned: £371,743.00 Profit: £44,493.00 Who Else Would ROI: 13.6% Like to Join the So that’s £44,493 profit, tax free, for simply sitting at your computer and betting on the horses during Never-ending the afternoon. A couple of years ago, I went up to see Neil – the author of the original Value Horse Method ROLLOVER WEEK? that this software emulates – and he indeed simply sat there each afternoon, whacking £50 on every Forget lottery tickets, here’s a value horse that came up. We went for a couple of proven way to roll £1,200 into pints afterwards and he told me that in some years he £9,155 in 12 months... £30,678 in had made £70K+ using this method. 24 months... £48,145 in 3 years... and It doesn’t get any easier. an incredible £136,801 in 8 years Also, they are now giving away a FREE copy of s you read this, a small number of wealth-build- Value Horse Method (value £97), Bet Synergy ers are using the hush-hush “Pegasus Rollover (where it all started! [value £87]) and Money Market APlan” to make an effortless and always-growing Method (value £77) with every licence. second income... If you’ve got some time to bet during the racing New member David Smith wrote to say his “Pegasus and you want to actually make a profit from it, then Rollover Pot” jumped from £1,500 to £3,100 in a you’ll do very well with this. single month. Betfair ATM Mr J.C from Hull says he “was sceptical at first, I get asked quite often what my favourite betting but I quickly realised the potential of this amazing systems are and I always include this system in my system.” He started making a tidy £20 a day for the response. We reviewed this back in 2010 and gave it first two weeks... now his Pegasus Rollover Plan a massive thumbs up. generates £100 a day. Here are some of the features: And Chris Roberts has bought a 25ft cabin cruiser thanks to Pegasus. His only problem is that the only 1. It makes you consistent £50-£100 per day from requirement of Pegasus is an Internet connection, and Betfair in-play. because he spends so much time on his new boat that 2. The strike rate is above 80%. makes things difficult! 3. It is very easy to execute. 4. It can be used on both Flat and Jumps racing. “Portable laptops and phone services aren’t really 5. There’s no fixed time to use ATM – you can use an option,” he wrote recently, “so I am at a loss what it whenever suits you. to do!” 6. It is a level stakes backing method, so no big So what’s this all about? liabilities. 7. No need to have bookies accounts – you use this If this is such a powerful way to make money, why with Betfair. haven’t you heard of it? 8. Liquidity is not a problem and ATM has been Why do your profits escape any tax from the well tested for over three years on UK horse Treasury? racing. 9. It will never stop working. And how can you kick off your own Pegasus Rollover Plan – starting this very day? It has also been rated as a top-rated system by a host of independent betting sites across UK and Europe. Just go to www.TryPegasus.co.uk for all the details 16