Change of Base of National Accounts of Pakistan Is Not So Rich
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
ASIF BAJWA Chief Statistician Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Statistics Division Government of Pakistan 21 - Statistics House, Mauve Area, G - 9/1, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: +9251 9106515 Fax: +9251 9106561 E-mail: [email protected] , [email protected] , Website: pbs.gov.pk ARIF MAHMOOD CHEEMA Member National Accounts Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Statistics Division Government of Pakistan 21 - Statistics House, Mauve Area, G - 9/1, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: +9251 9106517 Fax: +9251 9106516 E-mail: [email protected] , [email protected] Website: pbs.gov.pk ISBN 978 - 969 – 9888 – 00 - 7 Foreword Statistics play an important role in policy formulation and informed decision making. Economic indicators are highlighted in media more than ever. With the passage of time data sources improve, new fields emerge, and as a result the frame work needs, revisions. To cope with international standards and improved versions of the frameworks, frequent revisions are required. In the developed statistical systems five years period is considered appropriate. In developing systems the need to change the base is more emergent as the sources of data and methods of estimation are improving along with the capacities of the statistical organizations. Due to the availability of documented information more sophisticated statistical techniques are being adopted. Instead of changing the sources and methods fragmentally, the preferred method is to introduce their changes in a holistic manner so as to enable comparison with the old system. History of change of base of national accounts of Pakistan is not so rich. It remained a rather neglected activity. In 1952 the national accounts estimates were prepared from 1949 onwards at current prices. In 1962-63 the base of 1959-60 was adopted. In 1987 the base of 1980-81 was adopted. Then in 2003, the base of 1999-2000 was adopted. The rebasing was done with classifications of the 1968 SNA. The need for the change of base was realized during the 2003 and work started to have 2005-06 as the base year. The process of the latest updation of national Accounts began with the approval of a development scheme costing Rs. 283 million in 2005-2006. Work began in earnest with the commissioning of a number of surveys, census and studies during the period 2006-2010. Emphasis was laid more on census and surveys rather than on studies. During this period the SNA 2008 also become available and was adopted for use in the rebasing exercise. This helped in the rectification of errors like double counting, and valuation of omissions. Conceptual changes like exploration costs, intellectual property products, basic prices valuation, etc. have been used. Measurement of financial and insurance services through “Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM)” is a structural change now incorporated in the national accounts of Pakistan. Coverage has been enhanced. Censuses, surveys and studies are the main sources. Secondary data has been used where primary data was not available. Consultation on different subjects with the national as well as international experts resulted in the improvement of methodology and its documentation. The result is the change of base of national accounts from 1999-2000 to 2005-06 conforms to the latest methods and is based on latest data available. Conceptual references and details of methodology is a subject of special focus. This work was carried out by the highly dedicated team of National Accounts professionals at the PBS. This team was very ably supported in capacity enhancement and technical advice by the GIZ and its consultants during the entire exercise. I must also acknowledge the contribution of the Special Committee of Experts designated by the Finance Minister to review the sources and methods applied in the exercise. Advisor to the Prime Minister for Finance encouraged us to expeditiously complete and present the rebasing exercise. The Governing Council in its fourth meeting held on April 29, 2013 approved the change of base from 1999-2000 to 2005-06. The Governing Council also set up a Committee of its members to determine the time frame for the next rebasing exercise most likely to adopt 2014-15 as the base year. While I acknowledge the hard work put in by the National Accounts team of PBS, led by Mr. Arif Mahmood Cheema, Member, any short comings and mistakes are my responsibility. I would also like to request views and comments on this exercise to help PBS in next rebasing. ASIF BAJWA Chief Statistician Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (April 29, 2013) iii Acknowledgement – Team of National Accounts Mr. Arif Mahmood Cheema Member (NA) Mr. Habib ur Rehman SA Mr. Shahid Mahmood Butt DDG (NA) Mr. Umer Daraz SA Mr. I. D. Feroze Director (NA) Mr. Shaukat Shagheer Raja SA Mr. Ghulam Mustafa CSO Mr. Muhammad Zubair SA Mr. Liaqat Ali CSO Mrs. Farah Deeba SA Miss Shazia Begum CSO Mrs. Sadia Anjum SA Mr. Muhammad Younas Khattak SO Mr. Sher Ali SA Mr. Muhammad Afzal Raza SO Mr. Badshah Hayat SA Mr. Abdul Majeed SO Mr. Shakeel Ahmed Khan SA Mrs Shahida Faisal SO Mr. Muhammad Pervez SA Mr. Muhammad Saleem Bhatti SO Mr. Mohammad Rafique SA Mr. Muhammad Rafiq SO Mr. Ahmed Masood ul Hasan SA Mr. Tahir-ul-Islam SO Mr. Arshad Mahmood SA Mr. Waqar Aslam SO Mrs. Abida Parveen SA Mr. Mazhar Hussain SO Mrs. Seema Nasim SA Mrs. Hina Nousheen SO Mrs. Naeema Yousaf SO Miss Tayyaba Javeed SO Mr. Abdullah Khan SO Mr. Atif Hassan SO Acknowledgement – Team of GIZ Mr. Bernd Struck Principal Advisor Mr. Michael Wild Principal Advisor Syed Raisul Hasan Rizvi Senior Expert – National Accounts/Statistics Mrs. Suad Rizwan Technical Expert (IT) iv Preface With the documented data the reliability of the estimates improves and the estimation methodologies become refined. But it is a slow process. The national accounts had been estimated on current prices until the base was set as 1959-60 which was adopted in 1962-63. The first change of base took place in 1987 when the year 1980-81 was adopted as base year. The next change of base was adopted in 2003 setting the base as 1999-2000. The need was realized at the same time for the change of base. Year 2005-06 was declared as the new base year. Surveys were planned to evaluate major sectors / industries, studies were preferred to fill in the gaps and capture new activities. The exercise took long time. Since SNA 2008 and as a resultant ISIC Revision 4 were available, the work was planned to utilize these standards in the change of base. Accordingly PSIC 2010 was released which is parallel to ISIC rev. 4, already collected data were classified utilizing PSIC 2010 and it has been bridged where needed. COICOP, CPC version 2, COFOG have been introduced in the system, new price base and Manufacturing base have been adopted. FISIM has been incorporated for measuring the contribution of finance and insurance. Double deflation and basic prices concepts have been actualized. And this all has got the sustainability due to the adoption of the base 2005-06. A lot of dedicated efforts are behind the achievement. Thinking process inherited in the System of National Accounts was a driving force for the conceptual issues. At this point of time the services of an experienced expert of national accounts who had a long working in a developed statistical system, Mr. Bernd Struck became available. His long stay with PBS and direct observation of the local system combined with a vision of the PBS is the basis of this leap ahead. It has enriched the document in many ways. He employed latest techniques for capacity building to update the national accountants of PBS. E- learning courses on national accounts were conducted. On-the-job trainings, in-country courses, by the national experts as well as international experts, out-of-country special courses, visits to developed systems were employed. All techniques were complementing each other. The corner stone of the policy was the sustainable achievements. The contribution of Mr. Struck for the national accounts of PBS is noteworthy. He continued reviewing the draft even after his departure from Pakistan since September 2012. Let me thank him for putting his special skills in the service of national accounts of Pakistan. The support of Dr. Michael Wild after Mr. Struck was an instrumental for the completion of the document. Senior local experienced national accountants like Syed Raisul Hasan Rizvi and Mr. Shahid Mehmood Butt (DDG) have contributed heavily. Discussions with the sector specialists of the national accounts of PBS have improved the quality of the narrative and it has clarified the conversion of the SNA in to PSNA. Mr. Rais served as an institutional memory. He served in NA for more than 30 years. After retirement his support and guidance remained available up to the completion of the change of base. Un-wavering support of Mr. Asif Bajwa during his tenure as secretary statistics division and presently as a Chief Statistician of PBS has been a source of strength. His encouragement and interest in the completion of change of base remained a source of enthusiasm and inspiration for the officers and officials of national accounts. The firm support of Mr. Sohail Ahmad, Secretary Statistics Division for the continuation of the exercise was the guarantee for success. He shouldered the responsibility at a very critical time. The whole exercise is a team work. It was not possible without the inspired team. They rose to the expectation and met all standards. My heartily congratulations to all members of the team, specially to the senior members like Mr. Majeed, Mr. Liaqat, Mr. Younis Khattak, Mr. Afzal Raza, Ms.