DOCSLIB.ORG

Penalised Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multi-State Models

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Penalised Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multi-State Models Penalised maximum likelihood estimation for multi-state models Robson Jose´ Mariano Machado A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of University College London. Department of Statistical Science University College London October 17, 2018 2 I, Robson Jose´ Mariano Machado, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the work. Abstract Multi-state models can be used to analyse processes where change of status over time is of interest. In medical research, processes are commonly defined by a set of living states and a dead state. Transition times between living states are often in- terval censored. In this case, models are usually formulated in a Markov processes framework. The likelihood function is then constructed using transition probabili- ties. Models are specified using proportional hazards for the effect of covariates on transition intensities. Time-dependency is usually defined by parametric models, which can represent a strong model assumption. Semiparametric hazards specifica- tion with splines is a more flexible method for modelling time-dependency in multi- state models. Penalised maximum likelihood is used to estimate these models. Se- lecting the optimal amount of smoothing is challenging as the problem involves multiple penalties. This thesis aims to develop methods to estimate multi-state models with splines for interval-censored data. We propose a penalised likelihood method to estimate multi-state models that allow for parametric and semiparametric hazards specifications. The estimation is based on a scoring algorithm, and a grid search method to estimate the smoothing parameters. This method is shown using an application to ageing research. Furthermore, we extend the proposed method by developing a computationally more efficient method to estimate multi-state models with splines. For this extension, the estimation is based on a scoring algorithm, and an automatic smoothing parameters selection. The extended method is illustrated with two data analyses and a simulation study. Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient´ıfico e Tec- nologico´ - Brazil for funding this research. I would like to express my sincere grati- tude to Dr Ardo van den Hout for his thorough supervision of my PhD. In particular, I am thankful for all the opportunities he provided, for motivating me and for his patience. I would like to thank Dr Giampiero Marra for providing good directions to this research. I am thankful to Dr Aidan O’Keeffe and Dr Andrew Titman for their valuable comments that significantly improved this thesis. I thank Dr Boo Jo- hansson for permission to use the OCTO data, a connection that was made possible by Dr Graciela Muniz-Terrera to whom I am also thankful. In addition, I wish to thank the team of researchers behind the ELSA study. I would like to thank my friends and colleagues from University College London for the time spent together and exchange of ideas. Finally, I am thankful to my family and friends for their support in general and throughout my academic path, especially to my parents for making me independent. Special thanks to Verena for making everything easier during the development of this research, for providing support in difficult moments and for celebrating the good ones. Contents 1 Introduction 14 1.1 Research aim and overview . 14 1.2 Special features of multi-state processes . 16 1.2.1 Model structure . 17 1.2.2 Observational patterns . 18 1.3 Literature review . 19 1.4 Survival analysis . 22 1.4.1 The exponential distribution . 25 1.4.2 The Gompertz distribution . 25 1.4.3 The Weibull distribution . 26 1.4.4 The lognormal distribution . 27 1.5 Simulation of multi-state processes . 29 1.6 Examples . 29 1.6.1 Cardiac allograft vasculopathy data . 29 1.6.2 English longitudinal study of ageing data . 31 1.6.3 Origins of variance in the oldest-old data . 32 1.7 Discussion . 33 2 Parametric multi-state models 35 2.1 Continuous-time Markov processes . 35 2.2 Model representation . 38 2.3 Piecewise-constant hazards approximation . 40 2.4 Maximum likelihood estimation . 41 Contents 6 2.4.1 Likelihood function of the model . 41 2.4.2 Scoring algorithm . 43 2.5 Confidence intervals . 45 2.6 Model selection . 46 2.7 Model validation . 47 2.8 Applications . 48 2.8.1 Origins of variance in the oldest-old data . 48 2.8.2 Cardiac allograft vasculopathy data . 51 2.9 Discussion . 56 3 Multi-state models with splines 57 3.1 Introduction . 57 3.1.1 Smoothing methods . 58 3.1.2 Cubic regression splines . 59 3.1.3 P-splines . 61 3.2 Model representation . 63 3.3 Penalised maximum likelihood estimation . 65 3.3.1 Penalised log-likelihood function . 65 3.3.2 Parameter estimation . 66 3.3.3 Smoothing parameter estimation . 68 3.4 Prediction . 69 3.5 Application to the English longitudinal study of ageing data . 69 3.5.1 Predicting cognitive function . 76 3.6 Discussion . 78 4 Automatic smoothing for multi-state models 81 4.1 Background for automatic smoothing . 81 4.2 Penalised maximum likelihood estimation . 85 4.2.1 Model representation . 85 4.2.2 Piecewise-constant hazards . 85 4.2.3 Penalised log-likelihood function . 86 Contents 7 4.2.4 Parameter estimation . 86 4.2.5 Smoothing parameters estimation . 88 4.2.6 Summary of the algorithm . 89 4.2.7 Confidence intervals . 89 4.3 Simulation study . 90 4.4 Applications . 92 4.4.1 Origins of variance in the oldest-old data . 93 4.4.2 Cardiac allograft vasculopathy data . 98 4.5 Discussion . 101 5 Conclusions and future work 103 Appendices 107 A Code for the R software 107 Bibliography 116 List of Figures 1.1 A two-state survival model . 17 1.2 An unidirectional model . 17 1.3 An illness-death model . 18 1.4 A competing risks model . 18 1.5 The trajectory of an illness-death process. Dashed vertical lines represent the follow-up times. Solid horizontal lines represent the state occupancy over time . 19 1.6 Gompertz hazard functions for scale and shape parameters (l;q) = (1;−0:8);(0:1;0:15) and (0:01;0:45) ................ 26 1.7 Weibull hazard function for scale parameter l = 1 and the shape parameters g = 0:5; 1; 2 and 3 . 27 1.8 Lognormal hazard functions for m = 1 and s 2 = 0:75; 1; and 1:75 . 28 1.9 Four-state model for disease progression after transplant for the CAV data . 30 1.10 Five-state model for longitudinal data in ELSA on number of words remembered in a recall . 32 1.11 Four-state model for longitudinal data in OCTO . 33 2.1 Histogram of age at baseline transformed by minus 80 in the OCTO data. The variable t represents age minus 80 . 49 2.2 Estimated Gompertz hazards (solid lines) for women, with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines). The confidence intervals are obtained by simulation with b = 1000 replications . 51 List of Figures 9 2.3 Comparison of model-based survival from states 1, 2, and 3 with Kaplan-Meier curves. Model-based survival: grey lines for indi- viduals, blue lines for the mean of the individual survival curves. Kaplan-Meier in black lines with 95% confidence intervals. Fre- quencies for baseline state along vertical axes . 52 2.4 Illness-death without recovery model for disease progression after transplant for the CAV data . 53 2.5 Histogram of time since transplant in the CAV data . 54 2.6 Estimated Gompertz hazards for subjects with IHD and with donor age of 26 (solid lines), with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines). The confidence intervals are obtained by simulation with b = 1000 replications . 55 2.7 Comparison of model-based survival from states 1 with Kaplan- Meier curves. Model-based survival: grey lines for individuals, blue line for the mean of the individual survival curves. Kaplan-Meier in black lines with 95% confidence intervals . 56 3.1 The left hand panel illustrates one basis function, B4(x), for a cu- bic regression spline. On the right hand panel, the various curves of medium thickness show the basis functions, Bi(x), of a cubic re- gression spline, each multiplied by its coefficients a j. These scaled basis functions are summed to get the smooth curve illustrated by the thick continuous curve . 61 3.2 Illustrations of B-splines basis functions of degrees (a) one, (b) two, and (c) three . 62 3.3 Illustration of smooth curves made up of B-spline basis functions. On the left hand panel, the dashed curves show B-splines basis func- tions with m = 1 multiplied by their associated coefficients. The thick solid smooth curve is the sum of the scaled basis functions. The right hand panel shows the same, but for B-splines basis func- tion with m = 2............................ 63 List of Figures 10 3.4 Five-state model for longitudinal data in ELSA on number of words remembered in a recall . 70 3.5 AIC results and fitted hazard transitions for men with ten or more year of education. In (a) and (c), the AIC results for fixed l2 = 10 −3 and fixed l1 = 10 , respectively. In (b) and (d), the estimated hazards for 2 ! 3 and 3 ! 4, respectively. Solid line for P-splines I and dotted line for Gompertz. In (e) and (f), the AIC results for model P-splines II and fitted hazard for 3 ! 4, respectively. Time denotes age transformed by subtracting 49 years .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Fbst for Covariance Structures of Generalized Gompertz Models
    FBST FOR COVARIANCE STRUCTURES OF GENERALIZED GOMPERTZ MODELS Viviane Teles de Lucca Maranhão∗,∗∗, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto+, Julio Michael Stern∗ IME-USP∗ and EACH-USP+, University of São Paulo [email protected]∗∗ Abstract. The Gompertz distribution is commonly used in biology for modeling fatigue and mortality. This paper studies a class of models proposed by Adham and Walker, featuring a Gompertz type distribution where the dependence structure is modeled by a lognormal distribution, and develops a new multivariate formulation that facilitates several numerical and computational aspects. This paper also implements the FBST, the Full Bayesian Significance Test for pertinent sharp (precise) hypotheses on the lognormal covariance structure. The FBST’s e-value, ev(H), gives the epistemic value of hypothesis, H, or the value of evidence in the observed in support of H. Keywords: Full Bayesian Significance Test, Evidence, Multivariate Gompertz models INTRODUCTION This paper presents a framework for testing covariance structures in biological sur- vival data. Gavrilov (1991,2001) and Stern (2008) motivate the use of Gompertz type distributions for survival data of biological organisms. Section 2 presents Adham and Walker (2001) characterization of the univariate Gompertz Distribution as a Gamma mixing stochastic process, and the Gompertz type distribution obtained by replacing the Gamma mixing distribution by a Log-Normal approximation. Section 3 presents the multivariate case. Section 4 presents the formulation of the FBST for sharp hypotheses about the covariance structure in these models. Section 5 presents some details concern- ing efficient numerical optimization and integration procedures. Section 6 and 7 present some experimental results and our final remarks.
    [Show full text]
  • The Gompertz Distribution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Its Parameters - a Revision
    Max-Planck-Institut für demografi sche Forschung Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Konrad-Zuse-Strasse 1 · D-18057 Rostock · GERMANY Tel +49 (0) 3 81 20 81 - 0; Fax +49 (0) 3 81 20 81 - 202; http://www.demogr.mpg.de MPIDR WORKING PAPER WP 2012-008 FEBRUARY 2012 The Gompertz distribution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of its parameters - a revision Adam Lenart ([email protected]) This working paper has been approved for release by: James W. Vaupel ([email protected]), Head of the Laboratory of Survival and Longevity and Head of the Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography. © Copyright is held by the authors. Working papers of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed in working papers are attributable to the authors and do not necessarily refl ect those of the Institute. The Gompertz distribution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of its parameters - a revision Adam Lenart November 28, 2011 Abstract The Gompertz distribution is widely used to describe the distribution of adult deaths. Previous works concentrated on formulating approximate relationships to char- acterize it. However, using the generalized integro-exponential function Milgram (1985) exact formulas can be derived for its moment-generating function and central moments. Based on the exact central moments, higher accuracy approximations can be defined for them. In demographic or actuarial applications, maximum-likelihood estimation is often used to determine the parameters of the Gompertz distribution. By solving the maximum-likelihood estimates analytically, the dimension of the optimization problem can be reduced to one both in the case of discrete and continuous data.
    [Show full text]
  • The Alpha Power Gompertz Distribution: Characterization, Properties, and Applications
    Sankhy¯a: The Indian Journal of Statistics 2021, Volume 83-A, Part 1, pp. 449-475 c 2020, Indian Statistical Institute The Alpha Power Gompertz Distribution: Characterization, Properties, and Applications Joseph Thomas Eghwerido Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Effurun, Nigeria Lawrence Chukwudumebi Nzei University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria Friday Ikechukwu Agu University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria Abstract A new three-parameter model called the Alpha power Gompertz is derived, studied and proposed for modeling lifetime Poisson processes. The advantage of the new model is that, it has left skew, decreasing, unimodal density with a bathtub shaped hazard rate function. The statistical structural proper- ties of the proposed model such as probability weighted moments, moments, order statistics, entropies, hazard rate, survival, quantile, odd, reversed haz- ard, moment generating and cumulative functions are investigated. The new proposed model is expressed as a linear mixture of Gompertz densities. The parameters of the proposed model were obtained using maximum likelihood method. The behaviour of the new density is examined through simulation. The proposed model was applied to two real-life data sets to demonstrate its flexibility. The new density proposes provides a better fit when com- pared with other existing models and can serve as an alternative model in the literature. AMS (2000) subject classification. 62E10; 62E15. Keywords and phrases. Alpha power distribution, Gompertz distribution, Gompertz failure rate, Moment generating function of Gompertz, Moment of Gompertz 1 Introduction Modeling lifetime data has received a tremendous attention in recent times. However, modeling lifetime data rely on their distribution. Thus, developing more flexible distributions to model life time data is therefore required to convey the true characteristic of the data.
    [Show full text]
  • Statistical Properties and Different Methods of Estimation of Gompertz Distribution with Application
    Journal of Statistics and Management Systems ISSN: 0972-0510 (Print) 2169-0014 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tsms20 Statistical properties and different methods of estimation of Gompertz distribution with application Sanku Dey, Fernando A. Moala & Devendra Kumar To cite this article: Sanku Dey, Fernando A. Moala & Devendra Kumar (2018) Statistical properties and different methods of estimation of Gompertz distribution with application, Journal of Statistics and Management Systems, 21:5, 839-876, DOI: 10.1080/09720510.2018.1450197 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/09720510.2018.1450197 Published online: 06 Aug 2018. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 31 View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tsms20 Journal of Statistics & Management Systems ISSN 0972-0510 (Print), ISSN 2169-0014 (Online) Vol. 21 (2018), No. 5, pp. 839–876 DOI : 10.1080/09720510.2018.1450197 Statistical properties and different methods of estimation of Gompertz distribution with application Sanku Dey Department of Statistics St. Anthony’s College Shillong 793001 Meghalaya India Fernando A. Moala Department of Statistics State University of Sao Paulo Sao Paulo Brazil Devendra Kumar * Department of Statistics Central University of Haryana Mahendergarh 123031 Haryana India Abstract This article addresses the various properties and different methods of estimation of the unknown parameters of Gompertz distribution. Although, our main focus is on estimation from both frequentist and Bayesian point of view, yet, various mathematical and statistical properties of the Gompertz distribution (such as quantiles, moments, moment generating function, hazard rate, mean residual lifetime, mean past lifetime, stochasic ordering, stress- strength parameter, various entropies, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves and order statistics) are derived.
    [Show full text]
  • Using Subjective Expectations to Forecast Longevity: Do Survey Respondents Know Something We Don’T Know?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. Using Subjective Expectations to Forecast Longevity: Do Survey Respondents Know Something We Don’t Know? Maria G. Perozek 2005-68 NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other than acknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Using Subjective Expectations to Forecast Longevity: Do Survey Respondents Know Something We Don’t Know? Maria G. Perozek1 14 December 2005 Abstract: Future old-age mortality is notoriously difficult to predict because it requires not only an understanding of the process of senescence, which is influenced by genetic, environmental and behavioral factors, but also a prediction of how these factors will evolve going forward. In this paper, I argue that individuals are uniquely qualified to predict their own mortality based on their own genetic background, as well as environmental and behavioral risk factors that are often known only to the individual. Using expectations data from the 1992 HRS, I construct subjective cohort life tables that are shown to predict the unusual direction of revisions to U.S. life expectancy by gender between 1992 and 2004; that is, the SSA revised up male life expectancy in 2004 and at the same time revised down female life expectancy, narrowing the gender gap in longevity by 25 percent over this period.
    [Show full text]
  • The Gompertz Inverse Pareto Distribution and Extreme Value Theory
    American Review of Mathematics and Statistics December 2018, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 30-37 ISSN: 2374-2348 (Print), 2374-2356 (Online) Copyright © The Author(s).All Rights Reserved. Published by American Research Institute for Policy Development DOI: 10.15640/arms.v6n2a4 URL: https://doi.org/10.15640/arms.v6n2a4 The Gompertz Inverse Pareto Distribution and Extreme Value Theory Shakila Bashir1 & Itrat Batool Naqvi2 Abstract The Gompertz inverse Pareto (GoIP) distribution is derived using Gompertz G generator by introducing two new parameters. Some basic statistical properties of the model derived and discussed in details. The model parameter estimated using maximum likelihood estimation method. Moreover, the upper record values from the Gompertz inverse Pareto distribution are introduced and some properties have been discussed. Finally, simulation has been carried out form GoIP distribution and random numbers of 50 size are generated with a sample of size 15. Then the upper record has been noted among them and numerical values of the averages, dispersions of the upper records from GoIP have been presented. Keywords: Gompertz family of distributions; inverse Pareto; MLE; GoIP; record values 1. Introduction: In many real life situations, the classical distributions do not provide adequate fit to some real data sets. Thus, researchers introduced many generators by introducing one or more parameters to generate new distributions. The new generated distributions are more flexible as compare to the classical distributions. Some well-known generators are Marshal-Olkin generated family (MO-G) (Marshall and Olkin, 1997), the Beta-G by Eugene et al. (2002) and Jones (2004), Kumaraswamy-G (Kw-G for short) by Cordeiro and de Castro (2011) and McDonald-G (Mc-G) by Alexander et al.
    [Show full text]
  • Accelerated Failure-Time (AFT) Model ● Proportional Hazards Model ● Proportional Odds Model ● Model Comparison Using Akaikie Information Criterion (AIC)
    Survival Analysis Math 434 – Fall 2011 Part III: Chap. 2.5,2.6 & 12 Jimin Ding Math Dept. www.math.wustl.edu/ jmding/math434/index.html Jimin Ding, October 4, 2011 Survival Analysis, Fall 2011 - p. 1/14 Parametric Models ● Outlines ● Exponential Distribution ● Weilbull Distribution ● Lognormal Distribution ● Gamma Distribution ● Log-logistic Distribution ● Gompertz Distribution ● Parametric Regression Parametric Models Models with Covariates ● Accelerated Failure-Time (AFT) Model ● Proportional Hazards Model ● Proportional Odds Model ● Model Comparison Using Akaikie Information Criterion (AIC) Jimin Ding, October 4, 2011 Survival Analysis, Fall 2011 - p. 2/14 Outlines Parametric Models ■ Exponential distribution ; ● Outlines exp(λ),λ> 0 ● Exponential Distribution ● Weilbull Distribution ● Lognormal Distribution ● Gamma Distribution ● Log-logistic Distribution ● Gompertz Distribution ● Parametric Regression Models with Covariates ● Accelerated Failure-Time (AFT) Model ● Proportional Hazards Model ● Proportional Odds Model ● Model Comparison Using Akaikie Information Criterion (AIC) Jimin Ding, October 4, 2011 Survival Analysis, Fall 2011 - p. 3/14 Outlines Parametric Models ■ Exponential distribution ; ● Outlines exp(λ),λ> 0 ● Exponential Distribution ■ ● Weilbull Distribution Weiblull distribution W eibull(λ, α),λ> 0; ● Lognormal Distribution ● Gamma Distribution ● Log-logistic Distribution ● Gompertz Distribution ● Parametric Regression Models with Covariates ● Accelerated Failure-Time (AFT) Model ● Proportional Hazards Model ● Proportional
    [Show full text]
  • The Modified Beta Gompertz Distribution
    mathematics Article The Modified Beta Gompertz Distribution: Theory and Applications Ibrahim Elbatal 1, Farrukh Jamal 2 , Christophe Chesneau 3,*, Mohammed Elgarhy 4 and Sharifah Alrajhi 5 1 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science Al Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), P.O. Box 65892, Riyadh 11566, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] 2 Department of Statistics, Govt. S.A Postgraduate College Dera Nawab Sahib, Bahawalpur, Punjab 63360, Pakistan; [email protected] 3 Department of Mathematics, LMNO, University of Caen, 14032 Caen, France 4 Department of Statistics, University of Jeddah, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] 5 Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +33-02-3156-7424 Received: 7 November 2018; Accepted: 17 December 2018; Published: 20 December 2018 Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a new continuous probability distribution with five parameters called the modified beta Gompertz distribution. It is derived from the modified beta generator proposed by Nadarajah, Teimouri and Shih (2014) and the Gompertz distribution. By investigating its mathematical and practical aspects, we prove that it is quite flexible and can be used effectively in modeling a wide variety of real phenomena. Among others, we provide useful expansions of crucial functions, quantile function, moments, incomplete moments, moment generating function, entropies and order statistics. We explore the estimation of the model parameters by the obtained maximum likelihood method. We also present a simulation study testing the validity of maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, we illustrate the flexibility of the distribution by the consideration of two real datasets.
    [Show full text]
  • Goodness-Of-Fit Tests for the Gompertz Distribution 1 Introduction
    Goodness-of-fit tests for the Gompertz distribution Adam Lenart and Trifon I. Missov Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Konrad-Zuse-Strasse 1 18057 Rostock, Germany Abstract The Gompertz distribution is often fitted to lifespan data, however testing whether the fit satisfies theoretical criteria was neglected. Here five goodness-of-fit measures, the Anderson-Darling statistic, the Kullback-Leibler discrimination information, the correlation coefficient test, testing for the mean of the sample hazard and a nested test against the generalized extreme value distributions are discussed. Along with an ap- plication to laboratory rat data, critical values calculated by the empirical distribution of the test statistics are also presented. 1 Introduction Goodness-of-fit tests determine if the empirical distribution of the data satisfy the assump- tions of theoretical distributions. While the Gompertz distribution is routinely used in demography, biology, actuarial and medical science, according to my best knowledge, there is no analysis published about the goodness-of-fit for it. However, the Gompertz distribution is a degenerate generalized extreme value distribution for the minima and an abundance of goodness-of-fit tests exist in the literature for other extreme value distributions (see e.g., Hosking 1984). In a landmark paper Shannon (1948) defined the entropy of distributions and Kullback and Leibler (1951) were the first to measure the distance between probability distributions based on their entropy. Later, Song (2002) operationalized the Kullback-Leibler distance to test the goodness-of-fit of distributions. Recently, P´erez-Rodr´ıguezet al. (2009) applied it to the Gumbel distribution. In another important article, Anderson and Darling (1952) developed the Anderson-Darling test that later Stephens (1977) analyzed in the context of extreme value distributions.
    [Show full text]
  • Gompertz-Power Series Distributions
    Gompertz - Power Series Distributions A. A. Jafari1,,∗ S. Tahmasebi2 1Department of Statistics, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran 2Department of Statistics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran Abstract In this paper, we introduce the Gompertz power series (GPS) class of distributions which is obtained by compounding Gompertz and power series distributions. This distribu- tion contains several lifetime models such as Gompertz-geometric (GG), Gompertz-Poisson (GP), Gompertz-binomial (GB), and Gompertz-logarithmic (GL) distributions as special cases. Sub-models of the GPS distribution are studied in details. The hazard rate function of the GPS distribution can be increasing, decreasing, and bathtub-shaped. We obtain sev- eral properties of the GPS distribution such as its probability density function, and failure rate function, Shannon entropy, mean residual life function, quantiles and moments. The maximum likelihood estimation procedure via a EM-algorithm is presented, and simulation studies are performed for evaluation of this estimation for complete data, and the MLE of parameters for censored data. At the end, a real example is given. Keywords: EM algorithm; Gompertz distribution; Maximum likelihood estimation; Power series distributions. arXiv:1509.03595v1 [stat.ME] 11 Sep 2015 1 Introduction The exponential distribution is commonly used in many applied problems, particularly in life- time data analysis. A generalization of this distribution is the Gompertz distribution. It is a lifetime distribution and is often applied to describe the distribution of adult life spans by actuaries and demographers. In some sciences such as biology, gerontology, computer, and marketing science, the Gompertz distribution is considered for the analysis of survival. A random variable X is said to have a Gompertz distribution, denoted by X G(β, γ), if ∼ its cumulative distribution function (cdf) is − β (eγx−1) G(x) = 1 e γ , x 0, β> 0, γ> 0, (1.1) − ≥ ∗E-mail: [email protected] 1 and the probability density function (pdf) is − β (eγx−1) g(x)= βeγxe γ .
    [Show full text]
  • Marshall Olkin Exponential Gompertz Distribution: Properties and Applications
    Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences ISSN 2303-4521 Vol. 8, No. 1, March 2020, pp.298-312 Marshall Olkin exponential Gompertz distribution: Properties and applications 1 2 3 Mundher A. Khaleel , Nadia Hashim Al-Noor , Moudher Kh. Abdal-Hameed 1 Mathematics Department, College of Computer Science and Mathematics, Tikrit University 2 Mathematics Department, College of Science, Mustansiriyah University 3 General Administration Department, College of Administration and Economics, Tikrit University ABSTRACT Generalizing distribution is an important area in probability theory. Many distributions are not suitable for modeling data, that are either symmetric or heavily skewed. In this paper, a new compound distribution termed as Marshall Olkin Exponential Gompertz (MOEGo) is introduced. Several essential statistical properties of MOEGo distribution were studied and investigated. The estimation of distribution parameters was performed using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Two real data (symmetric and right-skewed) were adopted to illustrate the flexibility of MOEGo distribution. This flexibility enables the use of MOEGo distribution in various application areas. Keywords: Marshall Olkin distribution, Gompertz distribution, Exponential distribution, Statistical properties, Maximum likelihood estimation method Corresponding Author: Nadia Hashim Al-Noor Department of Mathematics, Mustansiriyah University Baghdad, Iraq E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] 1. Introduction In probability theory, the generalization
    [Show full text]
  • Is There a Cap on Longevity? a Statistical Review
    Is there a cap on longevity? A statistical review Léo R. Belzile,* Anthony C. Davison,† Jutta Gampe,‡ Holger Rootzén and Dmitrii Zholud§ Abstract There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if any, to the human lifespan. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social security systems. A central question is whether the endpoint of the underlying lifetime distribution is finite. Recent analyses of data on the oldest human lifetimes have led to competing claims about survival and to some controversy, due in part to incorrect statistical analysis. This paper discusses the particularities of such data, outlines correct ways of handling them and presents suitable models and methods for their analysis. We provide a critical assessment of some earlier work and illustrate the ideas through reanalysis of semi-supercentenarian lifetime data. Our analysis suggests that remaining life-length after age 109 is exponentially distributed, and that any upper limit lies well beyond the highest lifetime yet reliably recorded. Lower limits to 95% confidence intervals for the human lifespan are around 130 years, and point estimates typically indicate no upper limit at all. 1. INTRODUCTION The possible existence of a hard upper limit, a cap, on human lifetimes is hotly debated and attracts widespread public interest. Answers to the question are important demographically and for pension systems, since the presence of a cap may imply that the upward trend in expected lifetimes that has occurred over the last century in developed countries cannot continue. Moreover, establishing the existence or not of such a limit would inform biological theories of ageing and could aid efforts to prolong lives.
    [Show full text]