Be Afraid. Be A Little Afraid: The Threat of Terrorism from Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq DANIEL BYMAN JEREMY SHAPIRO Foreign Policy at BROOKINGS POLICY PAPER Number 34, November 2014 Acknowledgements This report is in large part the distillation and orga- expert and relatively gentle criticisms which both nization of other people’s observations and wisdom. improved the paper and maintained our fragile egos The authors relied heavily on interviews with experts (for the most part). and government officials in Denmark, France, Ger- many, the Netherlands, Turkey, the United King- Finally, we would like to thank our Brookings col- dom, and the United States to understand these leagues: Martin Indyk, for supporting the work issues. These people were extraordinarily generous through the Director’s Strategic Initiative Fund; Ta- with their time and with their insights. Most of mara Cofman Wittes and Fiona Hill for providing them asked not to be identified, either for reasons stimulating and smiling places within Brookings of modesty, professional survival, or simply because to work; Bruce Jones for shepherding us through they are embarrassed to know us. This report is, we the review process and providing sage advice; and hope, a small testimony to their enormous collective Rangano Makamure, Maggie Humenay, and Ben wisdom and dedication to the safety and security of Cahen for their financial acumen. Special thanks go their respective countries. to Stephanie Dahle for her expert editing and for reminding us to thank everyone. Finally, our greatest We would particularly like to thank Marc Hecker, debt is to Jennifer Williams. Her research assistance, Shiraz Maher, Peter Neumann, Magnus Ranstorp, her formidable skills as an editor, and her astonish- and Floris Vermeulen. We are also very grateful to ing patience were absolutely essential to the comple- John Mueller and an anonymous reviewer for their tion of this paper. Brookings recognizes that the value it provides to any supporter is in its abso- lute commitment to quality, independence, and impact. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment, and the analysis and recommenda- tions of the Institution’s scholars are not determined by any donation. BE AFRAID. BE A LITTLE AFRAID: THE THREAT OF TERRORISM FROM WESTERN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA AND IRAQ FOREIGN POLICY AT BROOKINGS i Table of Contents Be Afraid. Be A Little Afraid: The Threat of Terrorism from Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq ....1 The Standard Schematic Model of Foreign Fighter Radicalization .................................5 Syria/Iraq as the Worst-Case Scenario? .....................................................9 Mitigating Factors ....................................................................16 Policy Recommendations ..............................................................23 Authors ............................................................................30 BE AFRAID. BE A LITTLE AFRAID: THE THREAT OF TERRORISM FROM WESTERN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA AND IRAQ FOREIGN POLICY AT BROOKINGS ii Be Afraid. Be A Little Afraid: The Threat of Terrorism from Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq n May 24, 2014, a man walked into the Jew- • Many die, blowing themselves up in suicide ish Museum in Brussels and opened fire with a attacks or perishing quickly in firefights with Opistol and an AK-47, killing four people in just opposing forces. seconds. This attack was more than just another inci- dent of senseless gun violence. The alleged perpetra- • Many never return home, but continue fight- tor, Mehdi Nemmouche, was a French citizen who ing in the conflict zone or at the next battle had spent the last year fighting Syria. As such, this for jihad. attack appears to have been the very first instance of • Many of those who go quickly become disil- spillover of the Syrian civil war into the European lusioned, and even many of those who return Union. For many U.S. and European intelligence often are not violent. officials, it seemed a harbinger. They fear that a wave of terrorism will sweep over Europe, driven by the • Others are arrested or disrupted by intelligence civil war in Syria and the crisis in Iraq. services. Indeed, becoming a foreign fighter— particularly with today’s heavy use of social me- Despite these fears and the real danger that moti- dia—makes a terrorist far more likely to come vates them, the Syrian and Iraqi foreign fighter to the attention of security services. threat can easily be exaggerated. Fears about foreign fighters were raised concerning many conflicts, espe- The danger posed by returning foreign fighters is cially after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq; yet for the real, but American and European security services most part, these conflicts did not produce a surge in have tools that they have successfully deployed in terrorism in Europe or the United States. Indeed, in the past to mitigate the threat. These tools will have the case of Iraq in particular, returning foreign fight- to be adapted to the new context in Syria and Iraq, ers proved much less of a terrorist threat than orig- but they will remain useful and effective. Experience inally predicted by security services. Previous cases thus far validates both perspectives on the nature of and the information already emerging from Syria the threat. The Nemmouche attack demonstrates suggest several mitigating effects that reduce—but the danger, but European security services have also hardly eliminate—the potential terrorist threat from disrupted five plots with possible links to Syrian for- foreign fighters who have gone to Syria. Mitigating eign fighters to date, in locales ranging from Kosovo factors include: to the United Kingdom.1 1 For a list of violent plots in Europe involving Syria returnees, see Andrew Zammit, “List of alleged violent plots in Europe involving Syria returnees,” The Murphy Raid (blog), June 29, 2014, http://andrewzammit.org/2014/06/29/list-of-alleged-violent-plots-in-europe-involving-syria-returnees/. BE AFRAID. BE A LITTLE AFRAID: THE THREAT OF TERRORISM FROM WESTERN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA AND IRAQ FOREIGN POLICY AT BROOKINGS 1 Even the one successful attack in Brussels demon- the homes of Western Muslims every day. All sides strates why Syria’s foreign fighters are less of a dan- increasingly consider the conflict sectarian, pitting ger than is often supposed. Nemmouche was known Iraq and Syria’s Sunnis against the Iraqi and Syri- to French counterterrorism officials who had placed an regimes and their Shi’a supporters in Syria, Iraq, him under surveillance after his return from Syria, Iran, and elsewhere. specifically because he had been in Syria. He escaped greater notice probably because he acted alone, but Western security services fear that the foreign fight- that also limited his impact. And while Nemmouche er threat in Syria and Iraq is different in important appears to have picked up some weapons skills in ways than past foreign fighter problems. Young Eu- Syria, he apparently had no idea how to operate as ropean and American Muslims will go off to fight in an undercover terrorist in Europe. He failed to get Syria and Iraq as Sunni idealists but will return as an- rid of the guns he used in the attack and boarded ti-Western terrorists.3 They see combat experience in a bus on a well-known cannabis smuggling route, the region as a double threat. Many of those who go leading to his capture. to war will come back as hardened veterans, steady in the face of danger and skilled in the use of weap- Many security officials do not find Nemmouche’s ons and explosives—ideal terrorist recruiting mate- shortcomings very reassuring. Security officials are rial. While in the combat zone, they will form net- paid to worry about threats and, despite the mitigat- works with other Western Muslims and establish ties ing factors, foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria provide to jihadists around the world, making them prone ample room for worry. to further radicalization and giving them access to training, weapons, and other resources they might Thousands of Sunni Muslims have gone to fight otherwise lack. Charles Farr, director general of the alongside their fellow Sunnis against the Syrian and UK’s Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism,4 Iraqi regimes. (Thousands more Shi’a have gone to claims that “Syria is a very profound game-chang- fight on the side of those governments.2 But it is er,” while the Netherlands’ national coordinator the Sunni foreign fighters from Europe and Amer- for security and counterterrorism warns that “these ica, with passports that enable them to go anywhere people are not only coming back with radical ideas; in Europe or the United States without a visa, who they are also traumatised and fully prepared to use worry Western officials.) The overwhelming major- violence.”5 This fear of violence is particularly acute ity of foreign fighters who have gone abroad to join because many of those going to Syria and Iraq are the fight in Syria and Iraq have come from the Arab social misfits and “marginalized… juvenile delin- world. But Western Europe’s sixteen million and quents. It’s often people who were criminals before,” America’s two million Muslims also feel the pull: the according to French officials.6 carnage in Syria, the refugee crisis, and the violence between religious communities there have echoed American officials have similar fears. FBI director throughout the West. Satellite television and social James Comey stated that “All of us with a mem- media bring images of sorrow and slaughter into ory of the ’80s and ’90s saw the line drawn from 2 Daniel L. Byman, “Syria’s Other Foreign Fighters,” Lawfare (blog), January 12, 2014, http://www.lawfareblog.com/2014/01/the-foreign-policy- essay-syrias-other-foreign-fighters/; for a broader overview of foreign fighters in history, see David Malet, “Foreign Fighters Playbook,” Foreign Affairs,April 8, 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141107/david-malet/foreign-fighters-playbook.