March/April 2007 Vol. 8, No. 3 & 4

Population Demographics for the

TUDIES Imperial and Mexicali Valleys S Population demographics includes many different indicators. It is also very telling about the growth in a community or region. The size of the local population impacts the attraction efforts for new businesses, development in an area, and the environment. Many of the issues related to population growth can be managed through a strong planning process. In order for growth to continue though there needs to have a good foundation provided by planning.

CONOMIC This issue of the CCBRES Bulletin reviews the different demographics of population in the

E Imperial-Mexicali valleys. The first set of tables compares the historical population growth for California and Baja California and Imperial County and Mexicali from 1910 to 2000. The next set of tables provides the latest available population numbers for the incorporated and unincorporated areas of Imperial County, and for the municipality of Mexicali and its population centers. These tables are interesting not only for the numbers, but they also show the differences in the structure of the local governments. There are eight local governments EGIONAL in Imperial County but only one local government in Mexicali with representation throughout R its jurisdiction. Understanding the dynamics of the population provides insight into the makeup of the population. Tables 5 and 6 compare the population dynamics for Imperial County and Baja

AND California. However, they are not directly comparable because of the unit of analysis. Indirectly, it is seen that both have a strong basis in migration. In relatively new areas, such as the Imperial-Mexicali valleys with a history of approximately 100 years of permanent settlements, migration patterns dictate the race and ethnicity in a community. Tables 7 and 8 provide a breakdown of the racial/ethnic population breakdown for Imperial County, and the ORDER number of households classified as indigenous in Mexicali. Indigenous households, or those B households that speak a native indian language, are used in Mexico as there are not different race classifications officially in the country. The final set of population data considered is a breakdown of the population by age and gender (see Charts 1 and 2), and future population FOR projections (Charts 3 and 4). These charts are interrelated as they are both important indicators of the type of services needed in a community now and for future demands. In conducting research regarding the population and demographics in a region, the California Department of Finance for the Imperial Valley and Instituto Nacional de Estadística

ENTER Geografía e Informática (INEGI) for Mexicali are very good resources. Though there are not

C always comparable indicators, it is possible to provide a strong overview of the region. The next bulletin will focus on employment characteristics of the region. As usual, if you have any comments, questions, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to contact us. San Diego State University

ALIFORNIA Imperial Valley Campus C 1 Historical Population Growth

Table 1: Population of California and Baja California by Decennial Census, 1910–2000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 California 2,377,549 3,426,861 5,677,251 6,907,387 10,586,223 Baja California 52,272 39,294 48,327 78,907 226,965

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 California 15,717,204 19,953,134 23,667,902 29,760,021 33,871,648 Baja California 520,165 870,421 1,177,886 1,660,855 2,487,700

Source: Historical Census Data, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census (1910-1990), and INEGI.

Table 1 provides the population numbers for California and Baja California from 1910 to 2000. Both states have grown tremendously over the past 90 years. California’s 2000 population was double the size of the 1960 population while Baja California’s population in 2000 was double from 1980. California’s population was approximately 13 times larger than Baja California in 2000. This difference in size has been shrinking since 1910 when California’s population was about 45 times larger than Baja California.

Table 2: Population of Imperial County and Mexicali by Decennial Census, 1910–2000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 Imperial County 13,591 43,453 60,903 59,740 62,975 Mexicali 1,600 14,599 29,985 44,399 124,362

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Imperial County 72,105 74,492 92,110 109,303 142,361 Mexicali 281,333 396,324 510,664 601,938 764,602

Source: Historical Census Data, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census (1910-1990), and INEGI

Imperial County’s and Mexicali’s historical population growth by decennial census is shown in Table 2. In 1910, Imperial County’s population was larger than Mexicali with 13,591 residents in comparison to 1,600. In 1950, Mexicali surpassed Imperial County (124,362 in comparison to 62,975) and has continued to grow rapidly. Mexicali’s 2000 population was approximately 765,000 people in comparison to 142,000 in Imperial County. The population in both Imperial County and Mexicali almost doubled in 30 years.

2 Population Breakdown by City/Area

The population of Imperial Table 3: Imperial County Population by Cities with Annual County as of January 2006 was Percent Change, January 1, 2005 and 2006 166,585, as seen in Table 3. This is Total Population Percent change of 3.1 percent from the City / County 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 Change previous year. The city with the Imperial County 161,621 166,585 3.1 largest population is El Centro with Brawley 24,014 25,488 6.1 approximately 42,000 people. The Calexico 36,229 36,740 1.4 cities of Imperial and Brawley had Calipatria 7,900 7,828 -0.9 El Centro 40,982 42,002 2.5 the largest percent change in Holtville 5,738 5,846 1.9 population from 2005 to 2006 at Imperial 9,555 10,140 6.1 6.1 percent. The cities of Calipatria Westmorland 2,441 2,375 -2.7 and Westmorland experienced a Balance of County 34,762 36,166 4.0 decrease in population during this Source: State of California, Department of Finance. period.

The population of the Table 4: Population in Mexicali by Localities with Annual municipality of Mexicali and its Percentage Change, 2004 and 2005 localities for 2004 and 2005 are found in Table 4. The principal Percent urban area is the city of Mexicali, Principal Localities 2004 2005 Change Mexicali City which had approximately 630,000 616,552 631,596 2.4 Rest of Localities 140,323 143,756 2.4 residents in 2005. In the valley of Santa Isable 20,228 20,721 2.4 Mexicali, there are a number of Guadalupe Victoria 17,446 17,873 2.4 small towns or localities. The San Felipe 14,713 15,073 2.4 largest of these areas is Santa Puebla 8,321 8,523 2.4 Isable with more than 20,000 Ciudad Moreles 8,111 8,308 2.4 Alberto Oviedo Mota 7,711 7,900 2.5 residents. Guadalupe Victoria is Coahuila 7,264 7,441 2.4 the second largest with almost Hermosillo 6,119 6,269 2.5 18,000 residents and San Felipe Delta 5,449 5,582 2.4 follows with approximately Benito Juarez 5,029 5,512 9.6 15,000. The values in this table Other towns 39,932 40,554 1.6 are estimates developed by the Municipality of Mexicali 857,266 878,194 2.4 state population council, Note: Values are estimates. therefore, values do not add up. Source: CONEPO, Consejo Estatal de Poblacion, "Estimaciones Propias".

3 Factors to Population Growth

Table 5: Imperial County Population Estimates and Migration, 2000–2006

Net Net Population Percent Numeric Natural Net Foreign Domestic (July 1) Change* Change Births Deaths Increase Migration Immigration Migration Imperial 1999 140,822 Census 2000 142,361 Apr-Jun 2000 1,228 564 205 359 869 749 120 2000 143,589 1.96 2,767 2,549 827 1,722 1,045 2,995 -1,950 2001 146,230 1.84 2,641 2,563 850 1,713 928 2,814 -1,886 2002 149,981 2.57 3,751 2,593 876 1,717 2,034 2,396 -362 2003 154,828 3.23 4,847 2,805 905 1,900 2,947 2,448 499 2004 159,458 2.99 4,630 2,916 920 1,996 2,634 2,779 -145 2005 164,293 3.03 4,835 3,024 894 2,130 2,705 2,415 290 2006 169,888 3.41 5,595 3,093 903 2,190 3,405 2,509 896 Sum* 27,527 17,558 5,553 12,005 15,522 16,110 -588 Average* 4,404 2,809 888 1,921 2,484 2,578 -94

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, County Population Estimates and Components of Change by County, July 1, 2000-2006.

Table 5 provides a breakdown of the population growth in Imperial County from 2000 to 2006. In 2006, the population on July 1 was 169,888, a change of 3.41 percent from the pervious year. Change in the population was led by migration, particularly foreign immigration, into the county. From 2000 to 2006, there was a total natural increase of 12,005 people and 15,522 net migration increase. The net migration increase consists of a net foreign immigration of 16,110 new residents minus 588 domestic migration from the county.

Table 6: Population Dynamics in the Northern Mexican States, 1990 and 2000 1990 2000 Average Average Annual Number Annual Number Growth of Growth of Rate Deaths Children Net Rate Deaths Children Net 1970–1990 (per 1,000 per Migration 1990–2000 (per 1,000 per Migration Border State (%) residents) Woman (%) (%) residents) Woman (%) Baja California 3.2 4.1 2.5 40.9 4.2 3.5 2.4 39.5 Coahuila de Zaragoza 2.8 4.6 2.7 -4.4 1.6 4 2.5 -4.7 Chihuahua 2.1 4.7 2.7 6.7 2.3 4.1 2.6 10.9 Sonora 2.5 4.5 2.7 7.1 2 4 2.6 6.7 Tamaulipas 2.2 4.7 2.6 9.1 2.1 4.3 2.4 11.3

Source: INEGI.

Table 6 displays the population dynamics of the northern Mexican border states for 1990 and 2000. Baja California had the highest annual growth rate and net migration between 1970–1990 and 1990–2000. Baja California also had the one of the lowest deaths per 1,000 residents and average number of children per woman. The state of Coahuila de Zaragoza had a negative net migration rate.

4 Race and Ethnicity

The race and ethnic- Table 7: Race and Ethnicity in Imperial County, 2000–2004 ity population numbers from 2000 to 2004 for 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Average Imperial County are found in Table 7. White, Total population 143,597 146,233 149,950 154,749 159,331 Black, American Indian, Numeric change 2,636 3,717 4,799 4,582 3,933.5 Asian, and Pacific White 29,767 29,580 29,913 30,456 30,951 Islander are the races Numeric change -187 333 543 495 296.0 considered. Hispanic is Black 5,209 5,199 5,205 5,249 5,284 an ethnic classification. Numeric change -10 6 44 35 18.8 The greatest numeric American Indian 1,783 1,819 1,864 1,915 1,964 change was in the Numeric change 36 45 51 49 45.3 Hispanic classification, Asian 2,517 2,533 2,535 2,555 2,570 with an average of Numeric change 16 2 20 15 13.3 3,514.0. White had the Pacific Islander 77 78 79 80 81 second largest growth Numeric change 1 1 1 1 1.0 during this period, with Multi-race 721 765 808 858 902 an average of 296.0. Numeric change 44 43 50 44 45.3 Pacific Islander exper- Hispanic 103,523 106,259 109,546 113,636 117,579 ienced the lowest growth Numeric change 2,736 3,287 4,090 3,943 3,514.0 change with only 1 person per year. Source: State of California, Department of Finance, California County Race/Ethnic Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year, July 1, 2000–2004. Sacramento, California, March 2006.

Table 8: Indigenous Households in Baja California and Municipalities, 2005

Nonindigenous Indigenous Total Household Household Not Specified Baja California 2,621,374 2,526,954 65,530 28,890 Ensenada 391,517 356,489 33,671 1,357 Mexicali 802,766 788,288 7,200 7,278 Playas de Rosarito 67,542 65,396 1,636 510 Tecate 82,095 78,999 1,470 1,626 Tijuana 1,277,454 1,237,782 21,553 18,119

Source: INEGI, II Conteo de Población y Vivienda 2005.

Table 8 shows the number of households that are classified as speaking an indigenous language in Baja California for 2005. This classification is provided based upon the language spoken at home and is the only indicator regarding racial differences in Mexico. The municipality of Ensenada had the largest population of indigenous households, followed by Tijuana. Tecata had the fewest number of indigenous households.

5 Age and Gender

Chart 1: Population Distribution in Imperial County by Age and Gender, 2005

75 years and 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years Male Female 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years Agre Group 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 9 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 12 % 9% 6% 3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% Percentage

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey. Chart 1 provides the population distribution in Imperial County by age and gender for 2005. The percentage of males and females are similar in each age category. Approximately 40 percent of the population are children. The age category of 40 to 44 years has the largest percentage for the adult years.

Chart 2: Population Distribution in Mexicali by Age and Gender, 2005

Not specified 75 and older 70 to 74 years Male 65 to 69 years Female 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years

Age Group 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 9 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 12 % 9% 6% 3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% Percentage Source: II Conteo de Poblacion y Vivienda, INEGI. Chart 2 is the population distribution by age and gender for Mexicali in 2005. As in Imperial County, approximately 40 percent of the population are children. The largest percentage of the adult population is in the 25 to 29 and 30 to 34 age brackets.

6 Population Projections

Chart 3: Projected Population in Imperial County, 2000–2050 400,000 350,000 300,000 339,506 250,000 296,656 200,000 254,989 214,386 Number 150,000 178,201 100,000 143,660 50,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Source: State of California, Department of Finance. Chart 3 provides the projected population numbers for Imperial County from 2000 to 2050. The population is projected to double by 2040 with close to 300,000 residents. These additional residents will need services and infrastructure, which need to be planned for presently.

Chart 4: Projected Population in Mexicali, 2000–2030

1,500,000 1,410,754 1,000,000 1,209,846 993,861 Number 779,154 500,000

0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Source: Consejo Nacional de Poblacion, CONAPO. Chart 4 shows the projected population for Mexicali from 2000 to 2030. In Mexicali, the population is projected to double in 30 years with more than 1.4 million people living in the municipality by 2030. Combining chart 3 and 4, the population in the region will be close to 1.7 million people by 2030. Again, this population growth needs to be planned for in order for the region to be prepared and able to provide a high quality of life for its residents.

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National Center of Excellence of Center National — Agriculture of Department U.S. A

Calexico, CA 92231 CA Calexico,

720 Heber Avenue Heber 720

SDSU–IVC CCBRES

Inside this Edition California Center for Border and Regional Economic Studies Population Demographics for the Imperial and Mexicali Valleys

San Diego State University-Imperial Valley Campus Table 1: Population of California and Baja California by 720 Heber Avenue Decennial Census, 1910–2000 Calexico, CA 92231 Table 2: Population of Imperial County and Mexicali by tel. 760.768.5510; fax 760.768.5583 Decennial Census, 1910–2000 Table 3: Imperial County Population by Cities with [email protected] Annual Percent Change, January 1, 2005–2006 www.ccbres.sdsu.edu Table 4: Population in Mexicali by Localities with Annual Percent Change, 2004–2005 Dr. Kimberly Collins, Director Table 5: Imperial County Population Estimates and Migration, 2000–2006 Table 6: Population Dynamics in the Northern Mexican IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN AN OPPORTUNITY TO SPONSOR THE BULLETIN, States, 1990 and 2000 PLEASE CONTACT KIMBERLY COLLINS AT 760-768-5510. Table 7: Race and Ethnicity in Imperial County, 2000–2004 Table 8: Indigenous Households in Baja California and CCBRES IS DEDICATED TO PROVIDING ACCURATE AND TIMELY Municipalities, 2005 INFORMATION ON THE IMPERIAL AND MEXICALI VALLEYS. FOR MORE Chart 1: Population Distribution in Imperial County by INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT Age and Gender, 2005 OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.CCBRES.SDSU.EDU. Chart 2: Population Distribution in Mexicali by Age and Gender, 2005 Copyright © Imperial Valley Campus of San Diego State University, Chart 3: Projected Population in Imperial County, 2007 2000–2050 Chart 4: Projected Population in Mexicali, 2000–2030

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