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SPECIAL REPORT AMERICA’S HISPANICS March 14th 2015 From minor to major 20150314_HISPANICS.indd 1 03/03/2015 10:58 SPECIAL REPORT AMERICA'S HISPANICS From minor to major One American in six is now Hispanic, up from a small minority two generations ago. By mid-century it will be more than one in four. David Rennie explains what that means for America IN THREE TERMS representing Colorado in Congress, John Salazar got used to angry voters calling him a Mexican and not a proper American. During fights over the Obamacare health-insurance law, a constituent told him to “go backwhere you came from”. The attacks were misplaced. Mr Salazar is proud of his Hispanic heritage, but he comes from a place with deeper American roots than the United States. One ofhis ancestors, Juan de Oñate y Salazar, co-founded the city of Santa Fe in New Mexico. That was in 1598, some 250 years before it became American territory (and the best part of a decade be- fore English merchant-adventur- ers splashed ashore at James- town, Virginia). A laconic man in denims and cowboy hat, Mr Sala- zar is a fifth-generation Colorado rancher, farming the same corner of the San Luis valley that his great-grandfather settled 150 years ago, just when Mexico ced- CONTENTS ed the territory to America. As families like the Salazars put it, 3 Language they nevercrossed the border, the Dreaming in English border crossed them. 4 Identity But their high desert valley A suitable box to tick is home to many Spanish-speak- ing newcomers too. A demo- 5 Politics graphic revolution is under way. Not our thing In 1953, when Mr Salazar was 6 Cuban-Americans born, America’s Hispanic popu- Cuba libre lation numbered perhaps 3m. It surged after changes in immigra- 7 Casual workers tion law under President Lyndon In the shadows Johnson, nearing 9m by 1970. To- 8 Faith day it stands at 57m, out of Pick and mix around 321m Americans, and is on course to double by mid-cen- 9 Gangs tury, when it is projected to be The dark side 106m out of398m. In the past two 10 Education decades Hispanic migrants have College or bust ACKNOWLEDGMENTS spread from a few states and cities to places that had not seen big foreign inflows since the days of steam trains and telegraphs. The biggest group, 11 Media Many people helped in the with 34m, is Mexican-Americans. Since 2005 this has prompted Mexico Hearts and minds preparation of this report. Apart to open five new consulates, from Little Rock, Arkansas, to Anchorage, from those mentioned in the text, 12 Latino music Alaska (lots ofMexicans workthe perilous Alaska crab fisheries). the author particularly wishes to Listen to this thank Fernand Amandi, Jorge Duany, Hispanics are transforming the definition of what it means to be a Father Paul Griesgraber, Leon Krauze, mainstream American. During the roughly 200 years from the presiden- 13 A multi-hued future Sebastian Krys, Rebeca Leon, cy of George Washington to that of Ronald Reagan, whites of European Have faith in the Mark Hugo Lopez, Jerry Natividad, melting-pot John Reilly, Manuel Orozco, descent consistently made up 80-90% of America’s population. By the Jessica Rodriguez, Tyler Sandberg, time of the 2010 census, the proportion of non-Hispanic whites (for sim- Ray Suarez and Monica Talan, as well plicity’s sake called whites hereafter) was down to 64%. Some time as others who asked to remain around 2044 it is projected to fall to less than half. anonymous. A list of sources is at Some conservatives would retort that most Hispanics are white. Economist.com/specialreports They argue that the creation by federal bureaucrats in the 1970s of a new An audio interview with box on forms turned hard-working migrants into an artificial new race, the author is at trapping them in a ghetto of grievance politics and government welfare. Economist.com/audiovideo/ But that is too glib: for generations Hispanic-Americans were whites on 1 specialreports The Economist March 14th 2015 1 SPECIAL REPORT AMERICA'S HISPANICS Hispanic Population by age group Hispanic- White † 2010, % of total American Hispanic purchasing population, 5 43 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 power is 2011, % of total 90 > equivalent to 0 85-89 the world’s 80-84 75-79 16 th CO 70-74 largest ≥40 country 65-69 Hispanic population 60-64 % of total NM 55-59 100 50-54 80 45-49 New MexicMexicoxic o 40-44 60 Nearly 35-39 40 30-34 Coloradodo 1m 20 25-29 US-born 20-24 Hispanics 0 MEXICO 15-19 reach 1870 1900* 50 2012201 2 10-14 voting age annually 5-9 America’s racial/ethnic composition, % GroGrowth of Mexican-American < 5 Hispanic BlackAsian/other White † poppopulation, m 100 8 Hispanic population by origin, 2013, % Births Mexico 64.1 Puerto Rico 9.5 80 Immigration 6 Median Central America 8.9 60 wealth ‡ of 4 6.0 Hispanic South America households 40 Total: 57m Cuba 3.7 $7,683 2 20 Dominican Republic 3.3 0 0 Other 4.5 ‡ 1950 60 70 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 1980-90 90-2000 2000-10 White FORECAST households Sources: Pew Research Centre; US Census Bureau; “Latino Boom II” by Chiqui Cartagena; “Latino America” by Matt Barreto and Gary Segura *No data available for 1890 †Non-Hispanic ‡2011 $110,500 2 paper only, denied equal access to everything from schools to born Hispanics, the median age is a stunning18. As other parts of restaurants or town cemeteries. the rich world face a future ofageing, shrinkingpopulations, His- More broadly, it is white decline that makes today’s demo- panics are keeping American schoolyards full ofchildren and re- graphic revolution so remarkable. America has twice before wit- plenishing the supply of future workers. Since about 2011, white nessed European migration waves that were proportionately and non-white babies have been born in roughly equal num- even larger when measured against the population at the time: bers. White women already have fewer children than needed to once in the 19th century and again at the start ofthe 20th century. replace their parents. Hispanic women’s fertility rate has Those new Americans came to be seen as respectable, over time, dropped a lot, but at an average of 2.4 children it is still above re- as they assimilated towards a majority culture rooted in what placement level. were explicitly called Anglo-Protestant ideals: self-reliance, rug- In a recent book, “Diversity Explosion”, William Frey ofthe ged individualism, thrift and hard work. Yet now that white ma- BrookingsInstitution, a think-tank, makesan impassioned call to jority is on course to become a minority. celebrate America’s new demographics. In just a few years, his This will touch every aspect of public life, from politics to numbers show, there will be as many whites over 65 as white pop culture. Every year around 900,000 Hispanics born in children. Among non-whites, children outnumber the old by America reach voting age. Neither party should imagine it will four to one. Take away Hispanics and other fast-growing minor- own their votes in perpetuity, but Republicans have the most ities, and America’s numbers look like those for Italy, a country workto do. In the 2012 presidential election Mitt Romney, the Re- full of pensioners with a shrinking labour force. As things stand, publican candidate, got nine in ten of his votes from whites, however, America’s working-age population is expected to grow whereas Mr Obama won eight in ten of the votes cast by minor- at a healthy clip. ities. If the Republicans want to catch up, party hardliners will have to stop taking extreme positions on immigration. Hispanics How to double without trouble are unlikely to listen to messages about jobs or health care from It is important not to be Pollyanna-ish about the challenges candidates who are also proposing to deport their mothers. ahead. If in 2050 America’s Hispanic population were to look Business is waking up to the rise of Hispanics. Joe Uva, the same as today’s, only doubled in size, a great demographic chairman of Hispanic enterprises and content at NBCUniversal, adventure might end badly. For now, young Hispanics are more a big media company, is fond of telling fellow executives that likely than whites to drop out of high school and less likely to with a combined purchasing power of $1.1 trillion, if Hispanic- complete degrees. Adult Hispanics are half as likely as whites to Americans were a country they would rank16th in the world. work as managers or professionals. Fewer of them own their Agiant reason to be optimistic about the rise ofHispanics is homes, and many were clobbered by the 2008 financial crisis. that they are making America much younger. The median age of Lots ofmigrants move north to escape drug cartels and violence, whites is 42; ofblacks 32; and ofHispanics 28. Among American- but America’s proximity to poor, patchily governed countries to 1 2 The Economist March 14th 2015 SPECIAL REPORT AMERICA'S HISPANICS 2 its south is a business opportunity for criminals, too. In 2013 the ward assimilation in the third generation may rest on a statistical National Gang Intelligence Centre, a government body, estimat- quirk. People who still call themselves Mexican-American at that ed that Mexican transnational crime organisations “partner point are often less educated and less fluent in English than their with” 100,000 street-gang members in Chicago alone.