Adaptive Platform Trials
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Adaptive Clinical Trials: an Introduction
Adaptive clinical trials: an introduction What are the advantages and disadvantages of adaptive clinical trial designs? How and why were Introduction adaptive clinical Adaptive clinical trial design is trials developed? becoming a hot topic in healthcare research, with some researchers In 2004, the FDA published a report arguing that adaptive trials have the on the problems faced by the potential to get new drugs to market scientific community in developing quicker. In this article, we explain new medical treatments.2 The what adaptive trials are and why they report highlighted that the pace of were developed, and we explore both innovation in biomedical science is the advantages of adaptive designs outstripping the rate of advances and the concerns being raised by in the available technologies and some in the healthcare community. tools for evaluating new treatments. Outdated tools are being used to assess new treatments and there What are adaptive is a critical need to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of clinical trials? clinical trials.2 The current process for developing Adaptive clinical trials enable new treatments is expensive, takes researchers to change an aspect a long time and in some cases, the of a trial design at an interim development process has to be assessment, while controlling stopped after significant amounts the rate of type 1 errors.1 Interim of time and resources have been assessments can help to determine invested.2 In 2006, the FDA published whether a trial design is the most a “Critical Path Opportunities -
Should the Randomistas (Continue To) Rule?
Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule? Martin Ravallion Abstract The rising popularity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development applications has come with continuing debates on the pros and cons of this approach. The paper revisits the issues. While RCTs have a place in the toolkit for impact evaluation, an unconditional preference for RCTs as the “gold standard” is questionable. The statistical case is unclear on a priori grounds; a stronger ethical defense is often called for; and there is a risk of distorting the evidence-base for informing policymaking. Going forward, pressing knowledge gaps should drive the questions asked and how they are answered, not the methodological preferences of some researchers. The gold standard is the best method for the question at hand. Keywords: Randomized controlled trials, bias, ethics, external validity, ethics, development policy JEL: B23, H43, O22 Working Paper 492 August 2018 www.cgdev.org Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule? Martin Ravallion Department of Economics, Georgetown University François Roubaud encouraged the author to write this paper. For comments the author is grateful to Sarah Baird, Mary Ann Bronson, Caitlin Brown, Kevin Donovan, Markus Goldstein, Miguel Hernan, Emmanuel Jimenez, Madhulika Khanna, Nishtha Kochhar, Andrew Leigh, David McKenzie, Berk Özler, Dina Pomeranz, Lant Pritchett, Milan Thomas, Vinod Thomas, Eva Vivalt, Dominique van de Walle and Andrew Zeitlin. Staff of the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation kindly provided an update to their database on published impact evaluations and helped with the author’s questions. Martin Ravallion, 2018. “Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule?.” CGD Working Paper 492. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. -
Adaptive Designs in Clinical Trials: Why Use Them, and How to Run and Report Them Philip Pallmann1* , Alun W
Pallmann et al. BMC Medicine (2018) 16:29 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1017-7 CORRESPONDENCE Open Access Adaptive designs in clinical trials: why use them, and how to run and report them Philip Pallmann1* , Alun W. Bedding2, Babak Choodari-Oskooei3, Munyaradzi Dimairo4,LauraFlight5, Lisa V. Hampson1,6, Jane Holmes7, Adrian P. Mander8, Lang’o Odondi7, Matthew R. Sydes3,SofíaS.Villar8, James M. S. Wason8,9, Christopher J. Weir10, Graham M. Wheeler8,11, Christina Yap12 and Thomas Jaki1 Abstract Adaptive designs can make clinical trials more flexible by utilising results accumulating in the trial to modify the trial’s course in accordance with pre-specified rules. Trials with an adaptive design are often more efficient, informative and ethical than trials with a traditional fixed design since they often make better use of resources such as time and money, and might require fewer participants. Adaptive designs can be applied across all phases of clinical research, from early-phase dose escalation to confirmatory trials. The pace of the uptake of adaptive designs in clinical research, however, has remained well behind that of the statistical literature introducing new methods and highlighting their potential advantages. We speculate that one factor contributing to this is that the full range of adaptations available to trial designs, as well as their goals, advantages and limitations, remains unfamiliar to many parts of the clinical community. Additionally, the term adaptive design has been misleadingly used as an all-encompassing label to refer to certain methods that could be deemed controversial or that have been inadequately implemented. We believe that even if the planning and analysis of a trial is undertaken by an expert statistician, it is essential that the investigators understand the implications of using an adaptive design, for example, what the practical challenges are, what can (and cannot) be inferred from the results of such a trial, and how to report and communicate the results. -
Adaptive Design: a Review of the Technical, Statistical, and Regulatory Aspects of Implementation in a Clinical Trial
Adaptive Design: A Review of the Technical, Statistical, and Regulatory Aspects of Implementation in a Clinical Trial 1,2 1 Franck Pires Cerqueira, MSc , Angelo Miguel Cardoso Jesus, PhD , and Maria Dulce 2 Cotrim, PhD 1 Polytechnic Institute of Porto School of Health, Department of Pharmacy Porto, Portugal 2 Pharmacy Faculty of the University of Coimbra, Department of Pharmacology Coimbra, Portugal Abstract Background: In an adaptive trial, the researcher may have the option of responding to interim safety and efficacy data in a number of ways, including narrowing the study focus or increasing the number of subjects, balancing treatment allocation or different forms of randomization based on responses of subjects prior to treatment. This research aims at compiling the technical, statistical, and regulatory implications of the employment of adaptive design in a clinical trial. Methods: Review of adaptive design clinical trials in Medline, PubMed, EU Clinical Trials Register, and ClinicalTrials.gov. Phase I and seamless phase I/II trials were excluded. We selected variables extracted from trials that included basic study characteristics, adaptive design features, size and use of inde- pendent data-monitoring committees (DMCs), and blinded interim analysis. Results: The research retrieved 336 results, from which 78 were selected for analysis. Sixty-seven were published articles, and 11 were guidelines, papers, and regulatory bills. The most prevalent type of adaptation was the seamless phase II/III design 23.1%, followed by adaptive dose progression 19.2%, pick the winner / drop the loser 16.7%, sample size re-estimation 10.3%, change in the study objective 9.0%, adaptive sequential design 9.0%, adaptive randomization 6.4%, biomarker adaptive design 3.8%, and endpoint adaptation 2.6%. -
Getting Off the Gold Standard for Causal Inference
Getting Off the Gold Standard for Causal Inference Robert Kubinec New York University Abu Dhabi March 1st, 2020 Abstract I argue that social scientific practice would be improved if we abandoned the notion that a gold standard for causal inference exists. Instead, we should consider the three main in- ference modes–experimental approaches and the counterfactual theory, large-N observational studies, and qualitative process-tracing–as observable indicators of an unobserved latent con- struct, causality. Under ideal conditions, any of these three approaches provide strong, though not perfect, evidence of an important part of what we mean by causality. I also present the use of statistical entropy, or information theory, as a possible yardstick for evaluating research designs across the silver standards. Rather than dichotomize studies as either causal or descrip- tive, the concept of relative entropy instead emphasizes the relative causal knowledge gained from a given research finding. Word Count: 9,823 words 1 You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold. – William Jennings Bryan, July 8, 1896 The renewed attention to causal identification in the last twenty years has elevated the status of the randomized experiment to the sine qua non gold standard of the social sciences. Nonetheless, re- search employing observational data, both qualitative and quantitative, continues unabated, albeit with a new wrinkle: because observational data cannot, by definition, assign cases to receive causal treatments, any conclusions from these studies must be descriptive, rather than causal. However, even though this new norm has received widespread adoption in the social sciences, the way that so- cial scientists discuss and interpret their data often departs from this clean-cut approach. -
Assessing the Accuracy of a New Diagnostic Test When a Gold Standard Does Not Exist Todd A
UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series 10-1-1998 Assessing the Accuracy of a New Diagnostic Test When a Gold Standard Does Not Exist Todd A. Alonzo University of Southern California, [email protected] Margaret S. Pepe University of Washington, [email protected] Suggested Citation Alonzo, Todd A. and Pepe, Margaret S., "Assessing the Accuracy of a New Diagnostic Test When a Gold Standard Does Not Exist" (October 1998). UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series. Working Paper 156. http://biostats.bepress.com/uwbiostat/paper156 This working paper is hosted by The Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress) and may not be commercially reproduced without the permission of the copyright holder. Copyright © 2011 by the authors 1 Introduction Medical diagnostic tests play an important role in health care. New diagnostic tests for detecting viral and bacterial infections are continually being developed. The performance of a new diagnostic test is ideally evaluated by comparison with a perfect gold standard test (GS) which assesses infection status with certainty. Many times a perfect gold standard does not exist and a reference test or imperfect gold standard must be used instead. Although statistical methods and techniques are well established for assessing the accuracy of a new diagnostic test when a perfect gold standard exists, such methods are lacking for settings where a gold standard is not available. In this paper we will review some existing approaches to this problem and propose an alternative approach. To fix ideas we consider a specific example. Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common sexually transmitted bacterial pathogen. In women Chlamydia trachomatis can result in pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) which can lead to infertility, chronic pelvic pain, and life-threatening ectopic pregnancy. -
Memorandum Explaining Basis for Declining Request for Emergency Use Authorization for Emergency Use of Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate
Memorandum Explaining Basis for Declining Request for Emergency Use Authorization for Emergency Use of Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate On July 6, 2020, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) received a submission from Dr. William W. O’Neill, co-signed by Dr. John E. McKinnon1, Dr. Dee Dee Wang, and Dr. Marcus J. Zervos requesting, among other things, emergency use authorization (EUA) of hydroxychloroquine sulfate (HCQ) for prevention (pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis) and treatment of “early COVID-19 infections”. We interpret the term “early COVID-19 infections” to mean individuals with 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) who are asymptomatic or pre- symptomatic or have mild illness.2 The statutory criteria for issuing an EUA are set forth in Section 564(c) of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act). Specifically, the FDA must determine, among other things, that “based on the totality of scientific information available to [FDA], including data from adequate and well-controlled clinical trials, if available,” it is reasonable to believe that the product may be effective in diagnosing, treating, or preventing a serious or life-threatening disease or condition caused by the chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear agent; that the known and potential benefits, when used to diagnose, treat, or prevent such disease or condition, outweigh the known and potential risks of the product; and that there are no adequate, approved, and available alternatives. FDA scientific review staff have reviewed available information derived from clinical trials and observational studies investigating the use of HCQ in the prevention or the treatment of COVID- 19. -
3 Regulatory Aspects in Using Surrogate Markers in Clinical Trials
3 Regulatory Aspects in Using Surrogate Markers in Clinical Trials Aloka Chakravarty 3.1 Introduction and Motivation Surrogate marker plays an important role in the regulatory decision pro- cesses in drug approval. The possibility of reduced sample size or trial duration when a distal clinical endpoint is replaced by a more proximal one hold real benefit in terms of reaching the intended patient population faster, cheaper, and safer as well as a better characterization of the efficacy profile. In situations where endpoint measurements have competing risks or are invasive in nature, certain latitude in measurement error can be accepted by deliberately choosing an alternate endpoint in compensation for a better quality of life or for ease of measurement. 3.1.1 Definitions and Their Regulatory Ramifications Over the years, many authors have given various definitions for a surrogate marker. Some of the operational ramifications of these definitions will be examined in their relationship to drug development. Wittes, Lakatos, and Probstfield (1989) defined surrogate endpoint sim- ply as “an endpoint measured in lieu of some so-called ‘true’ endpoint.” While it provides the core, this definition does not provide any operational motivation. Ellenberg and Hamilton (1989) provides this basis by stating: “investigators use surrogate endpoints when the endpoint of interest is too difficult and/or expensive to measure routinely and when they can define some other, more readily measurable endpoint, which is sufficiently well correlated with the first to justify its use as a substitute.” This paved the way to a statistical definition of a surrogate endpoint by Prentice (1989): 14 Aloka Chakravarty “a response variable for which a test of null hypothesis of no relationship to the treatment groups under comparison is also a valid test of the cor- responding null hypothesis based on the true endpoint.” This definition, also known as the Prentice Criteria, is often very hard to verify in real-life clinical trials. -
Randomized Controlled Trials, Development Economics and Policy Making in Developing Countries
Randomized Controlled Trials, Development Economics and Policy Making in Developing Countries Esther Duflo Department of Economics, MIT Co-Director J-PAL [Joint work with Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kremer] Randomized controlled trials have greatly expanded in the last two decades • Randomized controlled Trials were progressively accepted as a tool for policy evaluation in the US through many battles from the 1970s to the 1990s. • In development, the rapid growth starts after the mid 1990s – Kremer et al, studies on Kenya (1994) – PROGRESA experiment (1997) • Since 2000, the growth have been very rapid. J-PAL | THE ROLE OF RANDOMIZED EVALUATIONS IN INFORMING POLICY 2 Cameron et al (2016): RCT in development Figure 1: Number of Published RCTs 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Publication Year J-PAL | THE ROLE OF RANDOMIZED EVALUATIONS IN INFORMING POLICY 3 BREAD Affiliates doing RCT Figure 4. Fraction of BREAD Affiliates & Fellows with 1 or more RCTs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 or earlier 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2005 2006-today * Total Number of Fellows and Affiliates is 166. PhD Year J-PAL | THE ROLE OF RANDOMIZED EVALUATIONS IN INFORMING POLICY 4 Top Journals J-PAL | THE ROLE OF RANDOMIZED EVALUATIONS IN INFORMING POLICY 5 Many sectors, many countries J-PAL | THE ROLE OF RANDOMIZED EVALUATIONS IN INFORMING POLICY 6 Why have RCT had so much impact? • Focus on identification of causal effects (across the board) • Assessing External Validity • Observing Unobservables • Data collection • Iterative Experimentation • Unpack impacts J-PAL | THE ROLE OF RANDOMIZED EVALUATIONS IN INFORMING POLICY 7 Focus on Identification… across the board! • The key advantage of RCT was perceived to be a clear identification advantage • With RCT, since those who received a treatment are randomly selected in a relevant sample, any difference between treatment and control must be due to the treatment • Most criticisms of experiment also focus on limits to identification (imperfect randomization, attrition, etc. -
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard
Evaluating Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard Nandini Dendukuri Departments of Medicine & Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University; Technology Assessment Unit, McGill University Health Centre Advanced TB diagnostics course, Montreal, July 2011 Evaluating Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard • An area where we are still awaiting a solution – We are still working on methods for Phase 0 studies • A number of methods have appeared in the pipeline – Some have been completely discredited (e.g. Discrepant Analysis) – Some are more realistic but have had scale-up problems due to mathematical complexity and lack of software (e.g. Latent Class Analysis) – Some in-between solutions seem easy to use, but their inherent biases are poorly understood (e.g. Composite reference standards) • Not yet at the stage where you can stick your data into a machine and get accurate results in 2 hours No gold-standard for many types of TB • Example 1: TB pleuritis: – Conventional tests have less than perfect sensitivity* Microscopy of the pleural fluid <5% Culture of pleural fluid 24 to 58% Biopsy of pleural tissue ~ 86% + culture of biopsy material – Most conventional tests have good, though not perfect specificity ranging from 90-100% * Source: Pai et al., BMC Infectious Diseases, 2004 No gold-standard for many types of TB • Example 2: Latent TB Screening/Diagnosis: – Traditionally based on Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) • TST has poor specificity* due to cross-reactivity with BCG vaccination and infection -
Fda Guidance Clinical Trial Imaging Endpoints
Fda Guidance Clinical Trial Imaging Endpoints Acetic Eddie hypostatize or slopes some taphephobia acutely, however overfull Andrey poetizes shily or mews. Meek Benny limed his micropyle decompounds methodically. Lilliputian and sipunculid Roice cone, but Konrad labially pommel her gabber. In clinical guidance The goal of turning ASH-FDA Sickle Cell Disease Clinical Endpoints Workshop. New FDA Guidance on General Clinical Trial Conduct unless the. The influence of alternative laboratories and imaging centers for protocol-specified assessments. Endpoint Adjudication Improving Data Quality Validating Trial Processes. The FDA has just April 201 released the final guidance on Imaging. A people of FDA Guidance on COVID-19 Patient Safety. In August 2011 FDA released Clinical Trial Imaging Endpoint. Of efficacy endpoints in clinical trials and mental disease biomarkers. By FDA in its 201 guidance for Clinical Trial Imaging Endpoints. Guidance Submit electronic comments to httpwwwregulationsgov Submit. Clinical Trial and Imaging subgroup report European. FDA's guidance Investigational Device Exemptions IDEs for Early Feasibility Medical Device Clinical Studies Including Certain First known Human FIH Studies. To the sponsor remotely such as laboratory and radiology reports or source. 2015 Clinical Trial Imaging Endpoint Process Standards Draft Guidance PDF 675KB. We provide informed guidance on the proposed imaging endpoints for trump trial. On endpoint for measuring an se table also specify as normal imaging that it. FDA Guidance on Clinical Trials During COVID-19 News. Innovative QUIBIM. Cytel's Response FDA Guidance on thousand of Clinical Trials during the. USA Guidance Clinical Trial Imaging Endpoint Process. Jnm5302NLMIU-Nmaa 1313 Journal of space Medicine. FDA posts guidance on endpoints in osteoarthritis trials. -
Screening for Alcohol Problems, What Makes a Test Effective?
Screening for Alcohol Problems What Makes a Test Effective? Scott H. Stewart, M.D., and Gerard J. Connors, Ph.D. Screening tests are useful in a variety of settings and contexts, but not all disorders are amenable to screening. Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and other drinking problems are a major cause of morbidity and mortality and are prevalent in the population; effective treatments are available, and patient outcome can be improved by early detection and intervention. Therefore, the use of screening tests to identify people with or at risk for AUDs can be beneficial. The characteristics of screening tests that influence their usefulness in clinical settings include their validity, sensitivity, and specificity. Appropriately conducted screening tests can help clinicians better predict the probability that individual patients do or do not have a given disorder. This is accomplished by qualitatively or quantitatively estimating variables such as positive and negative predictive values of screening in a population, and by determining the probability that a given person has a certain disorder based on his or her screening results. KEY WORDS: AOD (alcohol and other drug) use screening method; identification and screening for AODD (alcohol and other drug disorders); risk assessment; specificity of measurement; sensitivity of measurement; predictive validity; Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) he term “screening” refers to the confirm whether or not they have the application of a test to members disorder. When a screening test indicates SCOTT H. STEWART, M.D., is an assistant Tof a population (e.g., all patients that a patient may have an AUD or professor in the Department of Medicine, in a physician’s practice) to estimate their other drinking problem, the clinician School of Medicine and Biomedical probability of having a specific disorder, might initiate a brief intervention and Sciences at the State University of New such as an alcohol use disorder (AUD) arrange for clinical followup, which York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York.