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A comparative analysis of the relationship between political party preference and one-party dominance in Botswana and South Africa ON Modise orcid.org 0000-0001-7883-9015 Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Social Science in International Relations at the North West University Supervisor: Dr N Sempijja Co-supervisor: Dr JO Maseng Graduation ceremony: July 2019 Student number: 224037 DECLARATION I declare that this dissertation is my original work and it has not been submitted anywhere in full or partially to any university for a degree. All contributions and sources cited here have been duly acknowledged through complete references. _____________________ Obakeng Naledi Modise July 2019 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS “I was lucky to have been born in a family that knew the value of education, I was very fortunate to come from a family who gave me the opportunities and skills to succeed in life. Thereafter, I have had to work hard to be lucky” Khaya Dlanga This thesis has been at the epicenter of my life for the past two years. It has been the most challenging academic endeavor of my existence and has tested me in ways that I would have never known were possible. Throughout this journey my family cheered me on. To my mother, thank you for indulging me, for your support, love and prayers. This is for you. To my father, for keeping my wits intact, I appreciate your love and support. To my aunt, Dorcas Thai I am grateful for the words you continuously speak over my life. I cherish the love you continuously shower me with. Teboho Thai, my cousin, we made it! Your cheers and support were the loudest. To my friends - Ipeleng Segang, Refentse Lamola, Phenyo Setlhako, Tutu Kgobane, Keleabetwe Botse, Michelle Minnie, Ratang Mabale, Rebone Molefe, Boipelo Kotsedi. It is finally over. I have put my friendships on hold for this and I am sorry for all the celebrations I missed. I hope to ‘press play’ and that we may continue where we left off in 2016. May the end of this chapter in my life signal a new chapter in our friendship. To my love Thato Pitse, thank you for being the love I always knew existed. To my supervisors I appreciate your continued support: Dr. Sempijja for making sure I crossed the finish line. I do not take for granted your support throughout the writing process. Dr. Maseng, I am especially grateful for the role you played during this time in my life. I am even more grateful to have been under your tutelage. I am grateful that you took me under your wing and pushed because you believed in me. Finally to my colleagues in the department of Political Science and International Relations as well as the Humanities Faculty Management for entrusting me with the lives that you have. iii DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my mother, Kenewang Aletta Modise, without whom I would not have been. iv ACRONYMS ANC African National Congress ARAP Accelerated Rain-fed Arable Programme ARDP Accelerated Rural Development Programme AZAPO Azania People’s Organization BAM Botswana Alliance Movement BAM Botswana Alliance Movement BCP Botswana Congress Party BDP Botswana Democratic Party BEE Broad Based Economic Empowerment BIP Botswana Independence Party BMC Botswana Meat Commission BN Barisan Nasional BNF Botswana National Front BPP Botswana People’s Party BTTO Botswana Tlhoko Tiro Organisation BWF Botswana Workers’ Front CCM Chama Cha Mapinduzi CONTRALESA Congress of Traditional Leaders COPE Congress of the People COSATU Congress of South African Trade Unions DA Democratic Alliance DP Democratic Party EFF Economic Freedom Fighters FF+ Freedom Front Plus FP Freedom Party FPTP First Past the Post IC Independent Candidates IFP Independence Freedom Party IFP Inkatha Freedom Party MELS Marxist-Leninist Communist Party NDF National Democratic Front NDF New Democratic Front v NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NNP New National Party NP National Party PAC Pan Africanist Congress PR Proportional Representation SABC South African Broadcasting Corporation SACP African Communist Party SADC South African Development Community SADC Southern African Development Community SWAPO South Western People’s Organization UAP United Action Party (Bosele) UDC Umbrella for Democratic Change UDF United Democratic Front UDM Umbrella for Democratic Change USA United States of America ZANU-PF Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front vi ABSTRACT Through employing a comparative case study as a research design as well as the data collection technique of document analysis, this study sought to comparatively examine whether party preference led to one party dominance in Botswana and South Africa. The main sources of data for the study were the Afrobarometer surveys cycles of 2002/2003, 2005/2006, 2008/2009, and 2011/2013 as well as 2014/2015 and the National Election results of both countries between the years 2004-2014. The study revealed amongst other things that the Batswana like South Africans where in favour of many political parties within their state. However, as compared to the Batswana, South Africans possessed higher tolerance towards opposition political parties. While at the same time in both countries, there is more trust towards incumbent governing parties. This sentiment was consistent with electoral results in which the Botswana Democratic Party enjoyed majority support, since opposition parties had fragmented support. These findings are similar to South African experience. Despite the positive predisposition towards the governing parties in both countries; the study further provided evidence that in Botswana opposition parties enjoyed a larger share of the electoral support, which is fragmented amongst the opposition political parties; as a result, this fragmentation in conjunction with the electoral system in Botswana maintains the BDP’s electoral and legislative dominance. While in South Africa, voter apathy maintains one party dominance. This is a result of failure of some of the South African electorate to take advantage of their universal suffrage right. To this end, the remaining active voters continue to maintain dominance of the ANC. Key words: one party dominance, party preference, voter behaviour, electoral system, opposition parties vii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................. iii DEDICATION ................................................................................................................................... iv ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................................................... v ABSTRACT..................................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Electoral Politics vis-à-vis One Party Dominance in Botswana ............................ 4 1.1.1 Voter Behaviour in Botswana ................................................................................. 8 1.2 Electoral Politics vis-à-vis One Party Dominance in South Africa ....................... 9 1.2.1 Voter Behaviour in South Africa ................................................................................ 13 1.3 Justification for Comparison: Overview of Botswana and South Africa .......... 15 1.4 Statement of the Problem .............................................................................................. 17 1.5 Significance of the Study ............................................................................................... 18 1.6 Research Questions ............................................................................................................. 19 1.7 Aim and Objectives ............................................................................................................... 19 1.8 Notes for Clarification .......................................................................................................... 20 1.8.1 Conceptualisation .......................................................................................................... 20 1.8.2 Relevance of this Study in International Relations ............................................... 21 1.9 Structure of the Thesis ........................................................................................................ 21 1.10 Chapter Summary ............................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................................. 23 REVIEW OF EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON PARTY PREFERENCE AND ONE PARTY DOMINANCE ...................................................................................................................................... 23 2.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................. 23 2.2 The Relations between Partisanship and Political Party Preference ...................... 23
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