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Ohio Governor's Race a Dead Heat, Quinnipiac University

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Ohio Governor's Race a Dead Heat, Quinnipiac University Peter A. Brown Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 582-5201 (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 1, 2010 OHIO GOVERNOR’S RACE A DEAD HEAT, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; REPUBLICAN HAS 19-POINT LEAD IN SENATE RACE The race for Ohio governor is a dead heat with Republican John Kasich getting 47 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman has an insurmountable 56 – 37 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. Strickland, who had trailed by double digits earlier in the fall campaign, is leading among Democrats 90 – 6 percent, but Kasich is ahead among Republicans 83 – 10 percent and independent voters 57 – 36 percent in the survey completed Saturday of those who say they are likely to vote or have already cast their ballots. Critical to the outcome are the 6 percent of likely voters who remain undecided and another 5 percent who have selected a candidate but say they could change their mind. “The governor’s race is a statistical tie. It could go either way,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Gov. Ted Strickland has come from far back. The question is whether he can get over the hump. He has momentum on his side. John Kasich has the historical tendency of undecided voters to break against well-known incumbents at the very end of a campaign.” Strickland is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by the same percentage of likely voters. Kasich has an edge on that measure, with 47 percent of likely voters giving him a thumbs up and 37 percent a thumbs down. -more- Quinnipiac University Poll/November 1, 2010—page 2 There is a sizable gender gap with men backing Kasich 55 – 41 percent and women supporting Strickland 50 – 41 percent. In the Senate race, Portman leads Fisher among Republicans 94 – 3 percent and among independent voters 70 – 23 percent, while Fisher carries Democrats 83 – 11 percent. Portman’s sweep is so broad that he carries women 52 – 40 percent and men 61 – 34 percent. “The Senate race has never been close and looks more like what we often see with a popular incumbent seeking re-election rather than an open seat contest.” said Brown. From October 25 – 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 848 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 46% 10% 90% 36% 41% 50% 29% Kasich 47 83 6 57 55 41 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 3 6 3 8 8 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY............... CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot TS JK Made up 95% 94% 96% Might change 5 6 4 DK/NA - 1 - 2. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 13% 81% 39% 43% 46% 32% Unfavorable 45 77 4 56 51 39 59 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 8 3 4 8 6 REFUSED 4 2 7 2 2 6 3 3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 82% 7% 58% 54% 42% 61% Unfavorable 37 10 70 30 36 39 24 Hvn't hrd enough 12 6 19 9 8 14 12 REFUSED 4 2 3 4 2 5 3 3 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Lee Fischer the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Fisher or Portman? (This table includes Leaners). LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 37% 3% 83% 23% 34% 40% 21% Portman 56 94 11 70 61 52 72 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 4 5 7 4 8 6 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY................. CAND CHOICE Q4.. Tot LF RP Made up 93% 93% 93% Might change 7 7 7 DK/NA - - - 5. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 31% 4% 66% 20% 29% 33% 21% Unfavorable 43 74 11 49 49 37 47 Hvn't hrd enough 23 21 20 27 21 25 28 REFUSED 4 2 4 4 2 5 4 6. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 52% 85% 12% 66% 57% 48% 60% Unfavorable 20 3 42 14 21 19 12 Hvn't hrd enough 25 11 41 19 21 29 26 REFUSED 3 2 4 1 2 3 2 4 .
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