The Plot Thickens: Plot; the Kidnapping Trade in the Sahel; ETA’S Announced Ceasefire: and the Splintering of the Caucasus Emirate

Issue 26 / October 2010 1

IN THIS ISSUE

Focus This edition looks at the European terrorist The plot thickens: plot; the kidnapping trade in the Sahel; ETA’s announced ceasefire: and the splintering of the Caucasus Emirate. Page 4 - 13 >> Europe goes on alert page 4 >> Disclosure The latest threat warnings from around the world. Page 14 >>

Group Profile: Ógliagh na h’Éireann A profile of the most active dissident republican group in Northern Ireland, Ógliagh na h’Éireann. Page 15 -17 >>

CONTENTS

News in brief A monthly review of terrorist attacks in every region of the world. Page 2 >>

News highlights This month’s highlights include Al-Shabaab suicide attacks, IMU activity in Tajikistan, and a terrorist attack on the British Embassy convoy in Yemen. Page 3>>

attacks by sector A breakdown of business sectors affected by terrorist activity across the world. Page 18 - 19 >>

•Unless otherwise stated, ALL IMAGES LICENsED FROM PA images Issue 26 / October 2010 2 NEWS IN BRIEF

AMERICAS Police appeal for civilians died during Algerian press reported a ‘poorly circuited and On 8 September, four information after the assault. Prior to that Al-Maqdisi’s arrest crudely assembled’ the murder of unidentified gunmen the jailbreak, the prison came after he met two device that had failed to Imran Farooq explode. It was unclear killed the Mayor of El in London contained more than 100 members of Al-Qaeda Naranjo, in the state of suspected members of the in the Islamic Maghreb, who was behind the attack, although shortly San Luis Potosi, Mexico. group who were awaiting who had reportedly asked afterwards the Indian On the same day, Hillary trial. the cleric for a fatwa Mujahideen (IM), an Clinton, the US Secretary legitimising armed struggle Islamist militant group of State, remarked that MIDDLE EAST in Algeria. linked to the Pakistan- Mexico’s drugs war On 17 September, based Lashkar-e-Toiba increasingly looks like a SOUTH ASIA Jordanian security (LeT), threatened to Colombia-style insurgency. services arrested Abu On 19 September, an target the Commonwealth A Mexican government Muhammad Al-Maqdisi, unknown gunman opened Games in response to spokesman disputed this a jihadist theorist. Al- fire on a parked tourist the killings of civilians but acknowledged that Security officers disarmed kidnapped seven Maqdisi has proclaimed bus outside Delhi’s main in India-administered a spate of recent car two large car bombs foreigners, including five his support for jihad mosque, the Jama Masjid Kashmir. bomb attacks constituted in a residential area French nationals, in the in Iraq and the North and injured two Taiwanese terrorism. of Stavropol, in south- Arlit desert region 500 Caucasus before and nationals. Three hours EAST ASIA western Russia on 30 miles north of Niger’s was once a mentor of later, a car parked 100 On 26 September, a EUROPE September. Police said capital, Niamey. Two of the now-deceased Al- yards from the bus burst bomb exploded outside they found a corpse in one the captives worked On 16 September, Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu into flames. Police said the Nang Loeng Horse car wearing an explosive for Areva, a Paris-based unidentified assailants Musab al-Zarqawi. The that the car contained Stables in central Bangkok, belt. The bombs were nuclear energy firm. stabbed a founding Thailand. Police reported large with an equivalent The other five worked member of the Muttahida that the device was weight of 60kg of TNT. for the construction Quami Movement (MQM) planted under a flyover The Stavropol region has company Satom. On 30 in London. MQM is the bridge that runs past the seen little of the type September, AQIM released leading political party in stables close to the official of violence seen in the photographs of the seven Karachi and currently residence of the prime nearby republics. hostages but made no part of Pakistan’s national minister, Phitsanulok ransom demands. coalition. One press House. No group claimed SUB-SAHARAN Suspected Boko-Haram report said the victim responsibility for the AFRICA militants attacked a prison was about to leave attack. MQM to join a new On 15 September, Al- in Bauchi, Nigeria, and party set up by Pakistan’s Qaeda in the Islamic freed 750 inmates on former president, Pervez Maghreb (AQIM) 8 September. A soldier, A car catches fire near Jama Masjid mosque after the shooting Musharraf. a policeman and two Issue 26 / October 2010 3 News Highlights

its attacks on harder and MI5 stated that it was ‘only country’s north over the The attack, which was the more critical targets. a matter of time’ before past year. second on British officials Somali inspired terrorism in Yemen this year, injured On 21 September, the reached the streets of the An IMU spokesman three people. In April, an Somali prime minister UK. He revealed that a claimed responsibility for AQAP suicide bomber resigned, after long- significant number of UK the attack, and said it was detonated his explosive Al-Shabaab shows off its new recruits running disputes with residents are training in in response to the Tajik vest close to a car carrying President Sharif Sheikh Al-Shabaab’s Somali camps, government’s closing of the British ambassador. Al-Shabaab ups Somalia) vehicle entering Ahmed. Four days later, a and warned that Somalia mosques and widespread attacks as Somali the compound. In two mainly Sufi paramilitary is showing the same repression of Muslims. The Yemeni authorities government other suicide attacks, Al- group withdrew from a characteristics which led The spokesman warned had boosted security weakens Shabaab’s suicide bombers seven-month old deal to Afghanistan becoming that further attacks would around embassies prior to hit Mogadishu’s airport a ‘seed bed’ for terrorism the incident after receiving The Somali Islamist with the government for follow. and seaport. prior to the fall of the information about a movement Al-Shabaab providing armed support Taliban. Janusian does not planned attack. declared a ‘final, massive in exchange for sharing Al-Shabaab now controls believe the IMU has the war’ against foreign power. This move will large areas of Mogadishu The IMU resurface operational capacity In a separate incident ‘invaders’ on 23 August. almost certainly weaken and the local media has in Tajikistan to launch a sustained on the same day, an Shortly afterwards, its the government’s ability to reported that although the campaign in Tajikistan, armed guard for the fighters launched several push back Al-Shabaab. On 19 September, AMISOM troops engage although further isolated Austrian energy group attacks on high-profile militants from the Islamic in heavy battles around The international Movement of Uzbekistan attacks are likely. OMV shot and killed a targets in Mogadishu, Frenchman working in its the Dabka and Bakarah community has growing (IMU) ambushed a military including several suicide Haddah compound on Junctions, AMISOM troops concerns that those convoy as it passed Terrorist attack attacks. the outskirts of Yemen. can do little to move aligned to Al-Shabaab through a gorge in the on British News reports suggested out from the defensive could internationalise Rasht valley in Tajikistan embassy convoy The group attacked the that the man was OMV’s positions around the port, the group’s struggle. and killed 25 soldiers. presidential compound Suspected Al-Qaeda in the head of operations in airport and Villa Somalia. In late September, the twice, on 30 August and Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Yemen, although this was United Nations issued a The assailants used again on 20 September. terrorists fired a rocket- unconfirmed. The fractured internal warning of the growing assault rifles and grenade In the second attack, propelled grenade (RPG) politics of the TFG threat posed by the group launchers and attacked a suicide bomber - a at a diplomatic convoy The motive behind the (Transitional Federal internationally. from higher ground. The former security guard Government) adds to the guerrilla-style ambush carrying the deputy British attack remains unclear at the Interior Ministry ambassador to Yemen on 6 and security sources have existing instability within On 16 September, the marked a shift from - penetrated the site by Mogadishu and may be October, in Sana’a. not confirmed if this was Director General of the spate of low-level jumping onto an AMISOM a factor that is driving a personal dispute, or a Britain’s Security Service, bombings seen in the (African Union Mission in Al-Shabaab to increase terrorist attack. Issue 26 / October 2010 4 A plot thickens: Europe goes on alert

tourism infrastructure. counter-terrorism The British government officials, said that the followed suit - and threat originated from a updated its travel advice variety of ‘credible threats for France and Germany. from terrorist groups in France highlighted the Pakistan’. The Washington threat to the UK. Japan Post claimed the alert and Sweden also issued related to intelligence of warnings. a plan to target Britain, France and Germany using Meanwhile, the German similar tactics to those interior ministry claimed used in the November that the danger was 2008 Mumbai attacks, with hypothetical and said that multiple teams of gunmen while it was aware of Al- striking several targets Qaeda’s and other global at once in urban swarm Islamist groups’ long-term attacks. aim to attack Western targets, there were A tip-off ‘no concrete pointers France goes on alert Most sources seem to to imminent attacks in agree that the first pointer Germany.’ A sequence of counter- to major plot in Europe The last three weeks vague Travel On 3 October, the US came from a German terrorism operations The European saw a string events and alert warning State Department issued national captured in Kabul in Pakistan and plot Europe, followed by warnings that suggested The first indications of a travel alert warning in July called Ahmed Sidiqi mixed warnings from Europe was under threat. a heightened terrorist of the potential for a The US government has who told interrogators of Western governments, Some reports even threat to Europe broke terrorist attack in Europe. been vague about what plans to attack a number seemed to point to indicated Al-Qaeda was on 27 September, with a The warning said, ‘current intelligence prompted of targets in Europe. Sidiqi, a major threat of planning coordinated Wall Street Journal report information suggests that its travel alert. But the who may have links to terrorist gun attacks armed rampages in several that the CIA had launched Al-Qaeda and affiliated balance of reporting the Islamic Movement of across Europe. Was Al- West European cities, missile attacks against organisations continue strongly indicates that a Uzbekistan (IMU) was a Qaeda about to eclipse similar to the attacks in terrorists in Pakistan’s to plan terrorist attacks.’ plot to attack Europe did member of an 11-man cell the 9/11 attacks, Mumbai in November tribal belt in a bid to foil It also highlighted the exist. from Hamburg that had or was the threat 2008 that left hundreds a terrorist plot to attack vulnerability of public trained in camps in North inflated? dead and wounded. three European cities. transportation and The New York Times, citing Waziristan. European and American Issue 26 / October 2010 5 A plot thickens: Europe goes on alert

attacks in Europe. According to a CNN report, Sidiqi was under American military sources the command of a told one website that Mauritanian member it was at that meeting of Al-Qaeda’s External that senior militants Operations Committee appointed Jabbar as Emir (which plans attacks in the of the ‘Islamic Army of West) known as Younis Great Britain’. But British al-Mauretani, whom he intelligence sources said was plotting multiple have said that Jabbar’s Mumbai-style attacks on indiscrete bragging of his European countries. plans may have prompted the strike. Sidiqi apparently claimed that Mauretani’s intended A wider targets included the Eiffel conspiracy Tower and Notre Dame A third figure who also Cathedral in Paris; and reportedly died on 8 the Central Station, the September was a Yemeni Alexanderplatz TV tower, terrorist called Fahd and the luxury Hotel Reports point to a plot similar to the Mumbai attacks in November 2008 Mohammad Ahmed Adlon in Berlin. European al-Quso. Al-Quso was intelligence officials reportedly travelled to in the process of planning attacks in Europe. But September in what seems involved in the Al-Qaeda said Sidiqi revealed that North Waziristan in 2009 attacks against European they also played down to have been a bid to attack on the USS Cole in Mauretani planned to for terrorist training targets and setting-up a Jabbar’s importance, and wipe out the instigators of Aden in October 2000. Al- travel to Europe with under the guidance of TTP affiliated network the level at which his part the plot. Various sources Quso apparently had close two other Germans from Hafiz Gul Bahadur - a in the UK called the of the supposed plot had describe that meeting as links with Al-Qaeda in the Hamburg to prepare the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan ‘Islamic Army of Great progressed. a summit of some 300 Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attacks. (TTP) commander close Britain’. British intelligence militants from various and was an important to Al-Qaeda. sources quoted in the In any event, both Al-Qaeda factions and conduit between Al- Other reports have According to British media said that Jabbar Mauretani and Jabbar died affiliates that had come Qaeda in Pakistan and its focussed on the media reports, Jabbar was was ‘openly bragging’ in a US missile strike in to North Waziristan Yemen-based franchise. involvement of a British about his intentions to the Ambarshaga area of to plan future terrorist It is unclear what role national called Abdul mount Mumbai-style North Waziristan on 8 operations, including the Jabbar. Jabbar had Issue 26 / October 2010 6 A plot thickens: Europe goes on alert

of Mumbai-style attacks in Pakistan killed eight threat. Al-Qaeda and its This drop, he said, was remains. suspected terrorists, four affiliated groups clearly partly due to pressure of whom were German remain intent on mounting exerted on the Al-Qaeda Quite how far along nationals, according to the attacks in Europe. leadership but partly also the plot progressed is BBC. While Pakistani diplomats due to increased activity unclear. Some German have dismissed the elsewhere - in Somalia and and British intelligence Yet despite the travel credibility of the European Yemen in particular. sources have reportedly warnings, neither the plot, on 5 October, told the media that the British, German nor the a senior official in This trend seems to plot was embryonic. But French governments Pakistan’s Inter-Services highlight what is perhaps since the 8 September, have raised their national Intelligence Agency told the most troubling there have continued to terrorism threat level. the Associated Press aspect about the alleged be indications of a threat This suggests none he believes there are European plot: the Predator: drones strikes hit record numbers in September to Europe. believe there was, or is, an ‘several dozen’ people threat from international imminent threat of attack. with European citizenship terrorism in Europe is Al-Quso may have had involved. NPR’s sources The day before the French The official threat level in operating in Pakistan’s diversifying. It seems in the European plot. said they knew that government issued its the UK is ‘severe’, meaning tribal areas. Other media to indicate that groups But given his status, his Osama bin Laden issued own advisory of a threat the government assess reports suggest that as affiliated to Al-Qaeda - presence at the meeting a ‘directive’ to Al-Qaeda’s to the UK, French police an attack by international many as 20 British-born particularly the IMU but seems to indicate that Al- affiliates and partners via arrested nine people in terrorists is ‘highly likely’, jihadists are currently also quite possibly AQIM, Qaeda supported it and couriers several months Marseille and Avignon but not imminent. Their training at militant AQAP and even Al- may be an indicator that before, in which he stated on terrorism charges. assessments seem to training camps in North Shabbab in Somalia - are it continues to play a role that he would like to see They seized a munitions reflect a wider picture Waziristan. showing a greater interest in ordering attacks in the a ‘Mumbai-style attack’ cache that included a of the intentions and in mounting attacks in West, and even planning on at least three strategic Kalashnikov assault rifle, a capabilities of multiple The director general of Europe. Whether they them. targets — the United shotgun, and ammunition. plots and networks than MI5, publicly said just might have tried doing this Kingdom, Germany and Shortly afterwards, police any one singular threat. over a week before in concert had the missiles Intelligence officials and France. arrested another two men the US issued its own not struck remains a ‘people familiar with an in Marseille and one in A diversifying travel advisory, that the concerning unknown. unfolding terrorist plot Plot or not Bordeaux on terrorism threat percentage of the plots to target Europe’ cited It is difficult to assess the charges. There has also Whether or not a that British intelligence by the US broadcaster accuracy of the reports been elevated security at Mumbai-style Al-Qaeda trace back to Al-Qaeda in NPR, seems to support that a Mumbai-style key tourist sites in Paris. plot ever got off the the tribal areas of Pakistan this assessment. They attack was behind the ground, it is clear that has dropped from around even claim that Osama recent threat warnings for Meanwhile, on 3 October, Europe remains under 75% two or three years Bin Laden was directly Europe, or if the threat another US drone strike ago, to around 50% now. Issue 26 / October 2010 7 The kidnapping business in North Africa

On 16 September, Al- across the Sahel since Qaeda in the Islamic March: in Mali, Mauritania, Maghreb (AQIM) Niger, Algeria and Burkina kidnapped seven Faso. employees of two French companies Kidnapping is not a new from their residences activity for AQIM. In 2003 in Arlit, Niger. It was - when it was the Salafist the latest in a series Group for Preaching and of kidnappings in the Combat, or GSPC - it lawless and sparsely kidnapped 32 Western populated Sahel tourists from southern region that have Algeria, and countless attracted significant numbers of locals. Since international attention 2008, a year after it for the North African rebranded as an Al-Qaeda Islamist group. franchise, the group has kidnapped at least 20 As far as kidnappings of Westerners. Spanish Westerners go, the Sahel intelligence sources is becoming one of the also claim that several world’s most at-risk attempted kidnappings areas. As an area where were thwarted in foreign extractives and September. construction companies operate, this trend Typically, the group has has become a growing demanded ransoms concern; the indications or prisoner exchanges are that the threat is for all its hostages and unlikely to recede any then released them. But time soon. it recently murdered two captives when its According to Spanish demands were not met intelligence, AQIM has - British national Edwin been planning a campaign AQIM released a video of hostages on 30 September of Western kidnappings Issue 26 / October 2010 8 The kidnapping business in North Africa

Dyer in June 2009 and bombings. In the event, farmers’ harvest in estimated 1,000-1,500 a Frenchman, Michel it seems this leadership AQIM killed Michel Germaneau exchange for protection. members or active on 24 July Germaneau, in July 2010. change did not happen, If victims do not pay, they associates across North but the re-adoption of are subject to the familiar Africa, but its Sahel Kidnap as more radical tactics did. In pattern of abduction until division draws on help bankroll June, AQIM staged its first a ransom is paid. There from local bandits. The key AQIM has often increased suicide attack in Algeria is little publicly available to Belmokhtar’s success its kidnapping activity in in 22 months. Two more data on the number of are his local connections. times of difficulty - such followed and in August kidnappings of locals in He has alliances with local as when it has lacked the tactic appeared in Algeria, but the numbers rebel tribes into which he funds or lost members. Mauritania as well - with are certainly high. In allegedly married, which The group has certainly its first suicide-bombing 2007, AQIM reportedly has helped him establish been under pressure, attempt there in a year. kidnapped, on average, a an extensive network - with several offensives recruitment drives, A radical person a day for ransom. and kidnapping business recently mounted against This shift could go some logistical support and business model - in the region. its Algeria wing in Kabylie, way to explaining the other day-to-day activitiy. In their communiqués, But the kidnap of and across its strongholds increased kidnapping AQIM often refers to Westerners is of course These traffickers in the Sahel desert. drive. The amount of ransom their mission to attack where the big money is effectively sell the the group demands also ‘crusader companies’ on now coming from. Central hostages to AQIM, after But this time around, the With a strategy of more appears to be increasing. its land by kidnapping to the organisation’s which someone - often same month that AQIM sophisticated, high-scale Reports have suggested their employees. But financing activity is Belmokhtar - conducts allegedly began planning attacks, comes the need that for the release of reports suggest the Mokhtar Belmokhtar – the ransom negotiations. its kidnapping campaign for more money - and three hostages in August, activity is as much facilitator and an AQIM The group will pay a it also appears to have this seems to be one Spain paid €8,000,000 pragmatic as ideologically emir of the Sahel region. reported €15,000 – coincided with a shift in reason why AQIM has while for two hostages driven, if not more so. He has been active in the €80,000 of the ransom AQIM’s attack strategy. increased its kidnapping each Italy paid €3,600,000 procurement of funds and fee to the bandits or local drive. Indeed, kidnapping in May, and Austria paid Much of AQIM’s weapons for the group, traffickers to facilitate or In March 2010, reports is a fundamental part €2,500,000 in April. fundraising is conducted and its predecessor, since conduct the kidnappings. surfaced that suggested of AQIM’s fundraising According to the Algerian through drug trafficking, the early 1990s and is On 30th August reports that AQIM’s emir - strategy: in 2009 alone, authorities, the base rate cigarette smuggling, considered more of a emerged that following Abdulmalek Droukdel the group allegedly for a ransom demand is but also mafia-style businessman than an several successful hostage - had been replaced by raised $14 million from now €5,000,000. racketeering. In Algeria’s ideologue. deals, Belmokhtar was another leader calling for ransom, and $25 million Kabylie region, AQIM establishing, extending, and a return to more radical since 2008. The money rackets reportedly According to Janusian tactics - such as suicide funds arms procurement, demand 10% of the sources, AQIM has an Issue 26 / October 2010 9 The kidnapping business in North Africa

strengthening his contacts reportedly plays to shock transferred the hostages military to conduct with ‘Saharan mercenaries’ tactics and utilises the into Mali, irrespective of counter-terrorism raids AQIM kidnapping timetable in Sahel to bolster local kidnap media – hence the recent from where they were on its land, angering its networks. hostage killings and video taken. Indeed, questions neighbours. releases. have been raised as to Feb 2008: Two Austrians taken from Tunisia, There have also been why Mali is the preferred Projection transferred to Mali. Released in October. accusations that Not much is known destination. One probable Ultimately, with every Belmokhtar has links to about these principal explanation is that Mali successful hostage taking, Dec 2008: Two Canadian diplomats taken in Niger, the Malian government, actors in AQIM’s Sahel takes a softer line on AQIM is incentivised to transferred to Mali. Released in April. and local intelligence kidnapping trade. The hostage negotiation than invest more into the trade agents who he can pay apparent internal rivalry Mauritania and Algeria and to search for more off. The fact that militants makes AQIM kidnappings do. Some sources have Westerners to kidnap. Jan 2009: Four tourists; two Swiss, one German, one kidnapped the five all the more difficult to even speculated that Staging a large-scale attack British, taken on Mali/Niger border. British man killed French nationals from mitigate as the negotiation Belmokhtar has senior outside of the Sahel region in June. The others released in April and July. their residences so easily, could differ depending contacts in the Malian requires funds. gives some credence to on the emir in charge. government, although this suspicions that there had Whatever the case, it remains unverifiable. Nov 2009: One Frenchman taken from north-east Their ceasing to operate Mali. Released in February. been a tip-off. seems that as long as therefore depends on AQIM’s Sahel network can The growing threat in successful Sahel-wide But there is also another keep ransoms coming in, the Sahel has prompted cooperation, and a unified Nov 2009: Three Spanish aid workers taken in character at the heart its network will remain formalised military approach by Western north-west Mauritania. Released in March and August. of AQIM’s kidnapping solvent and a threat. cooperation and countries regarding network: a Sahel emir intelligence sharing negotiating with terrorists. called Abdelhamid Abu Regional between the Sahel Such an approach is likely Dec 2009: An Italian couple taken in south-east Zeid in whose name the cooperation countries in counter- to take time and so the Mauritania. Released in April. recent French kidnappings Recent AQIM arrests have terrorism operations. But threat is likely to remain were staged. This figure is the future of this activity revealed the extent of elevated. Moreover, as the Apr 2010: One Frenchman taken from Niger and reportedly at odds with invariably depends on cross border movements; most recent kidnapping transferred to Mali. Killed in July. Belmokhtar - more radical it is now almost whether or not the Sahel of French nationals from and ideologically driven meaningless to isolate states manage to reach an their accommodation than his colleague. While AQIM kidnap activity in agreement on negotiating shows, companies may Sep 2010: Five French employees taken in Niger, Belmokhtar allegedly each Sahel country, as they and foreign intervention. need to rethink how they transferred to Mali. Currently being held. only gets involved at the are irrevocably interlinked. ensure the security of mediation stage, Abu In almost all of the kidnap Mali has on several expatriate staff, even in Zeid actually conducts cases, militants have occasions negotiated, the remote Sahel. kidnappings. And he and allowed the French Issue 26 / October 2010 10 ETA’s reluctant ceasefire

The Basque separatist The intervention of such terrorist group ETA ETA declared a ceasefire on 5 September influential separatist declared a ceasefire figures has clearly been an on 5 September. The important factor in ETA’s Spanish government recent announcement, but rejected the move and it is not the only one. ETA will probably use this to justify a return ETA has been in decline to violence. since the 1970s. After the 11 March 2003 Al-Qaeda- In its declaration, ETA linked bombings in Madrid claimed it would maintain that killed 191 people and the ceasefire provided the wounded over 1,800, the government agreed to its ensuing popular climate conditions, which include made it politically suicidal making the political parties for ETA to pursue an associated with it - Heri active terrorist campaign Batasuna and Batasuna - of the type it had in the legal again. However, the decades before. government vowed to eradicate the group unless Spanish, French and it unconditionally disarms Portuguese security forces and renounces violence. successful precedent. The Human Rights’ decision, have also made things ETA achieved many of its In February, senior Basque extent to which ETA’s in June 2009, to uphold difficult for ETA and A double squeeze original objectives long separatist politicians and traditional support base Spain’s ban on Herri constrained the group’s In our analysis, ETA’s ago: a Basque parliament, activists acknowledged backed this initiative Batasuna and Batasuna, ability to plan attacks move was because of police force, and control that there could be no highlighted the group’s because of their close from inside and outside pressure on two fronts: of the education sector peace process without isolation. association with ETA, Spain. The February intensive French and and tax collection. Yet ETA laying down its was a particularly big arrest in Normandy, Spanish counter-terrorism its violent campaign has arms. They proposed A farewell to blow. They hope that northern France of Ibon operations against it, and continued, leading many that ETA enter into an arms ETA’s disbandment might a large segment within its to conclude – even among unconditional ceasefire, Basque separatist leaders prompt the government own support base that its constituency – that its and pursue a peace have been growing to allow them to run in thinks violence is now use of terrorism is now process following impatient with ETA. elections in May 2011. unlikely to further their counter-productive. Northern Ireland’s The European Court of cause. Issue 26 / October 2010 11 ETA’s reluctant ceasefire

Gojeaskoetxea, a senior The large car bomb at Madrid’s ceasefire are indicative ETA commander, was government’s airport and killed two of the government’s particularly decisive since response people. uncompromising stance: “The Spanish government’s it was the fifth time in The Spanish government’s ‘ETA is stopping to two years that police had rejection of the ceasefire It also seems likely that regroup, make no rejection of the ceasefire is arrested the head of ETA’s is partly because ETA the government has mistake. We can’t trust partly because ETA has operational cells. Police has reneged on previous confidently identified a this and that means the forces also dismantled ceasefires before. Only gap between ETA and government is sceptical reneged on previous ETA’s nascent presence a day after the Spanish the more mainstream and that the interior in Portugal, where it prime minister Jose Luis Basque activists who no ministry is maintaining its ceasefires before.” had hoped to move its Zapatero expressed longer see their goals anti-terrorist policy’. support bases following its optimism about the peace as attainable through ejection from France. process in December armed struggle. The Spanish security forces 2006, the group set off a Spanish interior minister’s have continued operations an increasingly isolated This would leave smaller, comments on the latest against ETA: they detained minority. but more radical rebel three suspected members elements such as ETA’s - including two who had ETA’s latest ceasefire unofficial youth group, allegedly received military should be seen in this Kale Borrocka, to training in Venezuela - and context - as a gamble continue a terrorist seized over 100 kilos of designed to appeal to its campaign in much the explosives in the Basque grassroots support. It may same way that IRA splinter town of Villabona on 29 well have calculated that groups have in Northern September. Zapatero will refuse to Ireland. Kale Borrocka talk - as he has so far - has carried out a couple Outlook thus justifying a return to of low-impact bombings ETA is experiencing a violence. in the Basque country directional crisis. There since ETA’s latest ceasefire is clearly disagreement However, if ETA cannot announcement. among ETA’s supporters, win over its traditional with most of the view that supporters, it may well While further such attacks its terrorist campaign has have no other option but are therefore likely; the become an impediment to to eventually agree to an prevailing trend seems to the Basque cause, while unconditional ceasefire. be that Basque separatist those who continue to violence is now entering Graffiti celebrating 50 years of ETA in 2009 advocate violence are its final act. Issue 26 / October 2010 12 The Caucasus Emirate Splinters

Chechen jihadist figures The geographic and Kabardino-Balkaria Umarov fought back within the insurgency who dispersal of insurgent jamaats to pledge their and said Vadalov and were no longer prepared attacks has also spread allegiance to the new Muhannad had violated an to fight under a Chechen from Chechnya into leader. oath of allegiance – and nationalist banner. neighbouring republics, should be tried by the Doku Umarov and even as far as For reasons that remain group’s Sharia court. He Realising the need to Kabardino-Balkaria, unclear, Umarov then blamed Muhannad for unite the disparate which prior to 2007 appeared in another video the split and said ‘from groups that comprised had remained largely a couple of days later and the very first day that I the insurgency, Umarov unaffected by terrorist claimed his resignation proclaimed the Emirate… infused a more radical violence. was a ‘fabrication’. Muhannad exposed There are signs But then, two days later, form of pan-Islamism into himself as an opponent that the Caucasus he bizarrely retracted his the separatist movement. While the frequency Whatever the explanation of it’. Emirate, the principal resignation. The about- He called upon all the and dispersal of attacks may have been for this, the terrorist network in face seemed to split the mujahidin to expel non- has continued in broadly leaders of the Ingushetia What went the North Caucasus, is ranks of CE and leave Muslims from the North the same patterns, the and Dagestan jamaats wrong? fragmenting. We assess Umarov isolated as several Caucasus region and to sequence of events that re-pledged their oath It is unclear what Chechen commanders what is happening in create an Islamic state began with Umarov’s of allegiance. But it was the reasons are for refused to reaffirm their the insurgency, and (emirate) that would ostensible resignation clear Umarov had lost the these divisions but is loyalty to him. what this may mean transcend Chechnya and exposed a rift at the loyalty of the Chechens, seems to be more a for the future threat in span the length of Russia’s highest levels of the whose leaders released matter of differences What is the Russia and the region. southern border. insurgency that suggest a communiqué on the 12 over leadership and Caucasus the CE is not operating as August announcing that personalities than an Emirate? The first signs of how Umarov’s move coherently as the levels of fact. ideological shift in the fragmented the separatist Imrat Kavkaz (Caucasus reinvigorated the violence might suggest. insurgency. insurgency in Russia’s Emirate) is a terrorist insurgent movement and Two high-ranking Chechen North Caucasus has organisation that operates helped drive up violence Splintering at commanders and Al- Some reports suggest become came on 2 August, across the North and instability across the top Qaeda’s emissary in the that Vadalov wanted to when the leader of the Caucasus region through the region. Since the CE After Umarov resigned Caucasus, an Arab known disassociate the radical Caucasus Emirate (CE), a loose confederation was formed, Janusian’s and named his deputy as Muhannad declared Islamist aspects of the Doku Umarov, announced of local militant groups Terrorism Tracker has a Chechen commander, their support for Vadalov’s insurgency from the his retirement in a video (jamaats). Umarov recorded a 270% increase Aslanbek Vadalov as his leadership. They said they Chechen movement and statement, and named his formed the organisation in terrorist attacks across successor, he called upon would continue to fight restart a more nationalist deputy as successor. in October 2007, after the North Caucasus. the commanders of the for the CE, but not under campaign. However, this succumbing to internal In the past year, the Ingushetia, Dagestan Umarov. seems unlikely. pressure from non- frequency of attacks has increased by over 100%. Issue 26 / October 2010 13 The Caucasus Emirate Splinters

concern is that we may terms of the broader Vadalov appears to be a Unverified sources suggest see further attacks inside patterns of violence. committed jihadist close that the leaders of the Russia. History has shown to Al-Qaeda and the Kabardino-Balkaria jamaat that leadership struggles There are also few Arab volunteers that fight opposed his resignation; often prompt rival factions indications that the in the conflict they see fearing what would or new leaders in terrorist Islamisation of the various as a defensive jihad, not happen to the organisation groups to escalate separatist struggles, or a struggle for national if it lost its figurehead. violence in a bid to assert indeed the unifying idea liberation. their authority and prove of a regional emirate, is at A storm in a their suitability to lead the risk of reversing anytime Another explanation teacup armed struggle. soon. advanced by many Russian analysts is that Umarov The squabbling in the CE’s So far, there has been The dependence of the is simply an unpopular hierarchy has been more little sign that CE’s travails wider insurgency on local leader and that Mohannad of an embarrassment for are driving up the threat jamaat commanders also instigated the mutiny to pan-Islamist project that we may see the CE split not Umarov, which seems of attack inside Russia means that the politics at strengthen the military CE represents, than a sign into two factions. One led to confirm that Vadalov’s any more than is already the top of CE is probably campaign in the Caucasus. that the insurgency across by Umarov, and supported dominance over the extant, but the saga of something of a sideshow the North Caucasus is in by the Dagestan, Chechen part of the wider Umarov and Vadalov is to groups that function A statement by Umarov real trouble. Ingushetia and Kabardino- CE network is unlikely to bound to affect future relatively independently three weeks after his Balkaria factions. The be reversed. threat in this respect. of each other. Certainly, ‘resignation’ seems to The day-to-day operations other led by Vadalov the continuity of attacks support this view. He said of the various local and supported by the What we have not seen More of the same suggests this is the case. Vadalov had uploaded insurgent groups that Chechens and the Arab during this period are his resignation statement comprise the CE fighters under Muhannad. further attacks deep inside Due to the umbrella What all this means is without authorisation appear to be largely Russia’s heartlands. It is role that the CE plays that, although fragmented, onto the Internet before unaffected. Since Umarov’s Indications that this split perhaps worth noting in the wider North the insurgency across the various jamaats had announcement, Dagestan may already be evident that it was Umarov who Caucasian insurgency it the North Caucasus will formally agreed for him and Kabardino-Balkaria came when Chechen ordered the attacks on seems unlikely that the almost certainly continue to resign. He admitted have witnessed a slight militants mounted an Moscow’s metro system split between Umarov unabridged, despite the that he had agreed to step increase in attacks, while audacious assault on on 29 March 2010, and the and his rivals will have recent rather indiscreet down providing the other the frequency of attacks in the heavily fortified bombing on the Nevsky much affect on the overall backbiting among its jamaats supported this Chechnya has fallen. hometown of Chechen Express on 27 November threat across the North leaders. decision, after Chechen President, Ramzan 2009. Caucasus. The differences fighters accused him of However, it does seem Kadyrov, on 29 August. have certainly not played not providing them with that unless these Most reports credit If, or when, this leadership out on the ground in enough arms and supplies. differences are resolved Vadalov with this attack, struggle is resolved, one Issue 26 / October 2010 14 Disclosure

Threats to oil originating from individuals State Department public transport and Word from the underground infrastructure in Somalia, Yemen and issues terror tourist sites in Europe. in Iraq Northern Ireland. Evans alert We are targeting Pakistani security forces because On 3 September, said that two years ago, On 3 October, the US Saudi Interior the government has allowed America to launch drone 75% of UK plots stemmed Ministry warns authorities in Basra State Department issued attacks on us… We will continue suicide attacks on from Pakistan’s tribal areas; of possible AQAP security forces. Civilians should avoid proximity with confirmed that the Iraqi a travel alert to American that figure now stands at attack them. government had received citizens that warned of an 50%. intelligence indicating that Al-Qaeda plot to attack a The Saudi Ministry of the A 7 September Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan statement Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) number of European cities. Interior issued an advisory Indian Army warning of future suicide attacks on security forces. was planning to attack oil US counter-terrorism on 4 October warning warns of new that two Al-Qaeda in the facilities in the country officials stated that they We claim responsibility for this blessed operation… LeT strategy Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in a bid to weaken the believe senior Al-Qaeda Crusader companies that loot our wealth and exploit On 24 September, the members could have Iraqi economy and deter members, possibly our sons must know that they are legitimate targets of Indian Army released a been planning to enter vital foreign investment. including Osama Bin the mujahidin and their swift expulsion is a duty for us. In response to the threat, report that warned that Laden, could have helped Saudi Arabia from Yemen Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is in order to carry out 5,000 additional troops plan the operations. The Statement released by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb developing a new strategy terrorist attacks. were in the process of advisory warned that dated 21 September, which claimed responsibility for the in the contested Kashmir being brought in to boost transport systems and The advisory stated that kidnapping of five French nationals in Niger. region. The report stated protection of Iraq’s oil tourist infrastructure an attack could take place that female LeT operatives sector. could be particularly within two days of the The less than satisfactory local and international may conduct attacks vulnerable to attacks. alert being issued. The response to the floods is the only thing one can during demonstrations MI5 head warns following day, reports logically expect from people who [have] consistently with IEDs and grenades, in Citing unnamed emerged that Saudi police shown little regard for Muslim lives… That is why of diversifying the hope of inciting violent terrorism threat intelligence sources, arrested a 14-year-old girl they must go and the only way to get rid of them…is protests. media outlets reported from Yemen who planned by supporting…the sincere and truthful mujahidin of Jonathan Evans, the head on 5 October that targets to detonate an explosive Islam until victory is achieved over the crusaders and of Britain’s Security Although LeT has could include the Eiffel vest in Jizan, close to the their proxies. Service, MI5, warned on expanded its operations Tower and Notre Dame Yemeni border. It was 16 September that the and staged attacks on Cathedral in Paris and unclear if the arrest was An English-language 29 September address by Al- Indian and Western UK continues to face the Brandenburg Gate related to the specific Qaeda’s American spokesman, Adam Yahiye Gadahn, aka interests in Afghanistan a serious threat from in Berlin. Following the security advisory issued, ‘Azzam the American’, who said that the governments and in India in recent terrorism. He said that US warning, the British, but a connection seems of Afghanistan and Pakistan serve the interest of the years, LeT’s founding the nature of the threat French and Japanese more probable than not. United States and its allies, at the cost to the local Muslim mission of the ‘liberation’ has diversified, and that governments issued alerts populations. of Indian-administered there has been a notable advising their citizens to Kashmir remains a high increase in threats remain vigilant around priority for the group. Issue 26 / October 2010 15 group PROFILE: Ógliagh na h’Éireann

On 3 August, masked The Londonderry incident is a relatively new group gunmen hijacked a taxi prompted Patrick Mercer, that was first mentioned and forced the driver the ex-chairman of the in the 8th Independent to deliver a 200lb House of Commons Monitoring Commission proxy bomb to a police sub-committee on (IMC, established in 2004 station in Londonderry. counter-terrorism to to monitor, among other The attackers then say that ONH is the things, the activities of called the police to most dangerous of all paramilitary groups in warn that the device of the groups involved Northern Ireland) report would explode in 45 in the recent upsurge in February 2006. minutes, but the car of dissident republican blew up in only half violence. He said, ‘they are The report said that a that time. quite small, but they are new dissident group, the lot who are going to styling itself the ONH The perpetrator of the do the most damage in had splintered from attack was a group called the future’. the Continuity Irish Ógliagh na h’Éireann Republican Army (CIRA), (ONH), a relatively new Brief History of and was believed to be dissident republican the ONH seeking former members terrorist organisation that A variety of dissident of the RIRA to join its rejects the peace process, republicans have used ranks. like a small number of the Ógliagh na h’Éireann others, and is becoming moniker. The group in this By the time of its 18th increasingly active. article is separate from report in May 2008, the the faction of the Real IMC said ONH was ‘more Although there were Irish Republican Army seriously active’, and had no casualties in the (RIRA) that has claimed committed its first fatal Londonderry bombing, attacks in the same name. attack in February 2008. the attack showed a group It said that members with growing expertise The word roughly were involved in a wide and sophistication. It was translates as ‘warriors range of criminal activities, ONH’s most high-profile of Ireland’ or ‘Ireland including drug dealing, and attack since it exploded a volunteers’. The current was attempting to raise bomb outside the British Ógliagh na h’Éireann funds to obtain weapons. Police are on high alert in Security Service’s new Northern Ireland described in this profile £20m headquarters in Holywood during April. Issue 26 / October 2010 16 group Profile: Ógliagh na h’Éireann

The report also warned with either Irish or British that future attacks against governments, and ‘would security force premises only be interested in and personnel were taking part in talks if they probable, as the group had were about negotiating started to single out these withdrawal and ending targets. British interference in Irish affairs, and if they In 2010, ONH became took place in a tight the most active dissident framework’. republican organisation in Northern Ireland. These veteran PIRA The group has used a members have returned variety of techniques – to arms, after losing including armed assaults, patience with Sinn Fein’s and improvised explosive political strategy. This devices – to conduct an was evident through unprecedented number of statements released attacks this year. following the Strand Road bomb attack. The group Terrorism Tracker has paraphrased comments recorded 34 attacks in made in the 1980s by Return to the bad old days: Bomb blast at South Quay in Northern Ireland since London’s Docklands area on 10 February 1996 Martin McGuinness to January, five of which were justify the attack and said, formally claimed by the emergence four years ago. been involved in any other than 500 active dissident During the interview, ‘Winning elections will ONH. Many more that An unnamed spokesman group’. republicans spread across the spokesman outlined not bring Irish freedom, have remained unclaimed from the ONH ‘army the various organisations; ONH’s aims and only the cutting edge of fit ONH’s modus council’ told the Irish The spokesman did not to which 100 belong to ambitions, which are the IRA can achieve that’. operandi. News that the vast reveal the size of the the RIRA. The Garda ultimately to upset majority of its members organisation, but admitted commissioner, Fachtna Northern Ireland’s Operational Membership and are ‘former members of that the group had a small Murphy, revealed on 29 government and the Capability Ideology the Provisional IRA (PIRA) number of members, September that more than achievements that have Although the majority On 22 August, the group who recognised a credible and very little support. 50 dissident suspects have been made since the 1998 of the group’s members conducted its first alternative in ONH’, while Recent police estimates been arrested so far this Belfast Agreement. The are thought to come media interview since its ‘a few had previously not suggest there are less year. spokesman said that the ONH has had no dialogue Issue 26 / October 2010 17 group Profile: Ógliagh na h’Éireann

from Strabane, and South On 14 August, the liberate Northern Ireland Although the capability of Armagh, the group has group gave the police from British influence - a the group has developed “The group warned that ‘in the demonstrated its ability false information on the level of extremism not over the past four years, it future we will target the British to conduct attacks over a location of a device in common to all dissident is unclear whether ONH wide geographical area. Lurgan, mirroring a tactic groups. possesses the necessary apparatus, should that be in Belfast, Similarly, it has shown its that killed 29 people resources to conduct Birmingham or London’.” capability to attack a wide in the 1998 car-bomb Localised and such a strike outside of range of targets through strike in Omagh. A Mainland Threats Northern Ireland. No planning an attack on Troubles, there is a real a variety of techniques. bomb exploded in a bin, Threats against members Irish-based terrorist group the annual Conservative and increasing security These include small arms where ONH would have of the public were has carried out an attack Party Conference, and challenge in Northern attacks, planting sticky expected police to have reiterated in a message on the British mainland RIRA made threats Ireland… We cannot bombs under vehicles set up a security cordon on 24 September, when since August 2001. against British banks exclude the possibility belonging to members of following their bomb hoax ONH warned the local and their employees, in that they [dissident the security services, and on a local school. Two people of Londonderry Irish-Related an interview with the republicans] may seek to detonating large powerful children were badly hurt of the implications of Threat Level Guardian. Following these extend their attacks to devices outside high in the blast, which Chief co-operating in police Over recent weeks, revelations, UK banks Great Britain’. profile and well-guarded Inspector Sam Cordner investigations. Through the British government in Northern Ireland targets. said ‘was an obvious a telephone call to the became so concerned reportedly stepped up Whether the ONH or attempt to kill police or Journal, ‘The Derry about an attack on the their security. RIRA can achieve their Patrick Mercer said what injure police officers’. Brigade of Óglaigh na mainland that Theresa stated objectives, and makes ONH so dangerous h’Éireann, threatened May, the Home Secretary, The UK’s decision to act on these threats, is that ‘they are relatively Similarly, the inaccurate severe and direct action’ raised the threat level upgrade its terror threat is remains to be seen. But well equipped… they and meagre evacuation- against informers and from Irish-related an indication that it takes we assess it highly unlikely have new commercial time ONH gave police to agents. terrorism in England, the emerging threat from that either organisation explosives and have evacuate the area around Wales and Scotland from Irish dissident republican currently possesses the the bomb-making Strand Road police station There are also indications ‘moderate’ to ‘substantial’. terrorist groups seriously. necessary capabilities to experience’. The group in Londonderry, shows which suggest that the This means that an carry out a large-scale has also demonstrated that the police cannot group intends to carry out attack on the mainland On 16 September, attack like the 1996 its intentions to use trust ONH’s warning calls, an attack on the British is assessed as a ‘strong Jonathan Evans, the Canary Wharf bomb, let tactics similar to those which have repeatedly mainland. During the Irish possibility’. The terrorism director-general of alone a sustained bombing that caused the deadliest been used by the group to News interview, the group threat in Northern Ireland Britain’s Security Service, campaign like that carried attacks in Northern lure officers closer to an warned that ‘in the future remains at ‘severe’. said, ‘while we do not face out by the PIRA in the Ireland’s four-decade attack. More worryingly, we will target the British Prior to the raise, the scale of the problems City of London in the conflict. such actions confirm that apparatus, should that be reports had emerged that caused by the Provisional 1990s. the group is prepared to in Belfast, Birmingham or dissident republicans were IRA at the height of the kill civilians in its quest to London’. Target type (Business) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept TOTAL Construction 9 4 3 11 8 6 10 1 7 5 3 6 3 4 6 2 6 1 6 8 16 Critical infrastructure 4 0 3 3 3 11 2 3 3 4 4 8 10 14 10 5 1 14 4 1 4 2 13 7 10 11 6 7 12 8 10 72 Extractives 15 8 10 9 8 16 7 6 5 9 5 16 8 14 12 15 11 7 9 9 33 Financial 2 4 0 4 1 1 1 4 4 6 4 3 6 9 10 8 3 0 8 3 6 Media 6 6 2 6 4 4 3 1 4 7 9 5 4 3 8 1 2 11 6 11 14 Retail 5 18 8 10 3 11 9 1 12 15 7 12 8 7 10 13 8 9 8 8 31 Tourism 2 3 1 2 9 1 5 0 3 4 2 5 4 2 6 3 7 0 4 6 6 Other 4 4 0 4 2 2 4 1 3 5 0 2 0 8 9 6 2 2 7 8 8 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug TOTAL Business Targets 13 20 18 14 30 11 55 58 62 51 54 57 38 56 40 42 53 18 39 55 32 62 40 57 71 54 45 42 56 63 186 Other Targets 129 170 206 196 192 158 112 216 176 200 160 179 191 208 211 213 270 236 311 256 257 277 327 356 328 335 397 351 448 347 505 169 167 274 238 251 214 236 229 264 251 255 323

1.11394335 1.30103 1.2552725 2.2695129 2.11058971 2.2304489 2.3138672 2.7032914

Country Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Pakistan 15.555555556 26.108374384 28.138528139 24.14 23.873873874 17.7 18.120805369 22.115384615 22.175732218 22.580645161 27.962085308 23.008849558 20.087336245 17.045454545 19.12 17.254901961 13.003095975 9.842519685 16.691 12.86 12.5 17.60 13.07 12.37 11.54 8.48 7.69 13.68 11.38 Iraq 15.555555556 21.18226601 15.584415584 9.48 11.261261261 8 14.765100671 16.346153846 11.715481172 12.5 4.2654028436 11.946902655 9.6069868996 12.5 13.54 23.921568627 17.3374613 38.188976378 16.691 26.69 27.9 26.56 29.15 28.38 21.87 22.88 22.31 23.65 35.49 Afghanistan 7.2222222222 17.733990148 13.41991342 15.52 13.963963964 15.8 16.10738255 11.057692308 9.2050209205 8.8709677419 9.9526066351 12.389380531 6.9868995633 15.53030303 13.54 14.509803922 18.26625387 12.204724409 16.691 13.18 8.3 11.94 8.45 8.5 12.78 17.22 20.13 15.38 14.06 India 10 11.822660099 11.255411255 12.07 4.5045045045 8.2 8.7248322148 12.980769231 12.133891213 6.0483870968 7.1090047393 11.061946903 28.384279476 11.363636364 13.94 7.8431372549 10.216718266 7.4803149606 16.691 10.61 6.75 8.95 5.7 8.5 10.57 8.48 5.42 6.55 5.13 Somalia 8.3333333333 5.9113300493 9.0909090909 4.31 8.5585585586 4.4 4.6979865772 5.2884615385 5.4393305439 6.4516129032 7.5829383886 4.4247787611 4.8034934498 3.0303030303 3.18 1.1764705882 2.1671826625 2.3622047244 5.4744 4.18 6.1 5.07 4.63 2.67 2.57 2.57 2.03 1.42 1.78 Russia 1.775147929 2.3952095808 3.6496350365 5.0420168067 3.984063745 3.813559322 2.5423728814 1.3100436681 7.9545454545 7.5697211155 6.6666666667 7.1207430341 9.842519685 5.83941 5.14 5.1 4.18 11.17 6.59 4.914 9.00 8.79 11.68 5.80 Yemen Colombia Thai

Relative lethality April May June July Issue 26 / October 2010 18 Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Suicide bombings 9 125 19 158 17 110 14 182 Non Suicide bombings 172 453 108 252 275 449 218 346 ATTACKS BY SECTOR

Jul 2009- Jul 2010: 6 MOST AFFLICTED COUNTRIES Russia Pakistan Aviation 2 Afghanistan Construction 3 Nov 08 - Sep 10: PROPORTION OF ATTACKS ON BUSINESS 40.0 India Somalia Agriculture 1 500 exploded and destroyed a US army and southern separatist groups have Electricity 7 Sep 10: ATTACKS ON BUSINESS BY SECTOR Utilities 1 vehicle in Al-Husseiniya. attacked oil fields and pipelines in the Gas 4 Oil 1 30.0 past year. Financial 2 375 Land transport 10 On 12 September in Thailand, a grenade Maritime 1 13% 13% fired at the Chiang Mai Construction Financial Other 13 Construction Retail 14 Critical infrastructure Company offices damaged the roof of the Tourism 5 20.0 In India, an unidentified person called the 250 Extractives building and caused minor damage to the 10% Financial Mumbai Police control room at 09:15 on Media street lights below. The company is run 16% 17 September and claimed that a suicide Number of Incidents Retail incidents terrorism global of % Region No. of incidents by Khanaen Supha, the father-in-law of bomber had entered the Bombay Stock Yala 11 125 Tourism 10.0 Pattani 6 Other Newin Chidchob, the Bhumjaithai Party Narathiwat 8 Exchange (BSE) building and intended to 13% Songkhla 3 leader. cause an explosion at 10:05. The call was Bangkok 3 Muang 2 0 believed to be a hoax as no explosives Chonburi 14% 0 Oil and Gas Nov Mar Mar May Jul May Sep Jul Nov Sep Jan were found after an extensive search of Business Targets Other Targets 17% 5% Militants detonated an explosive device the building. 2007 2008 2010 Jul 2009 - Aug 2010: 6 MOST AFFLICTED COUNTRIES Region 1 17 26 53 96 near a gas pipeline in Kabardino-Balkaria Region 2 55 43 70 58 and wounded several Russian soldiers On 30 August, unidentified gunmen Jul 2009 - Aug 2010: 6 MOST AFFLICTED COUNTRIES on 1140.0 September. On the same day, an attacked the Al-Rafidyeen Bank in the Russia Pakistan Muang improvised explosive device placed on Al-Bayaa areaIraq in southernAfghanistan Baghdad Yala Pattani Narathiwat Songkhla Bangkok Chonburi India Somalia 11 6 8 3 3 2 Electricity On 15 September, an improvised an oil pipeline in the Saratov Region killing two policemen and wounding four explosive device (IED) was discovered in was discovered and disarmed. No group civilians. Police sources reported that the On 8 September, police defused a bomb 30.0 claimed responsibility for either attack. gunmen exploded four bombs outside in the turbine hall of the Irganayskaya front of an EDF (Electricite de France) the bank before entering the building. hydroelectric power plant in Dagestan. building in Ajaccio. Police revealed that In Yemen, unknown assailants planted Police officers later arrested three of the The device comprised of two 1.5 the letters FLNC (Corsican National an explosive20.0 device near the main gas gunmen involved in the attack. Group Feb March PET bottles containing a mixture of Liberation Front) were written on the Taliban (Afghanistan) 33 35 front of the EDF building. Three days pipeline in the Salmon Mount area of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) 8 19 ammonium nitrate and aluminium Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-M) 20 17 earlier, an EDF operations building was Rahwah district, Shabwa province on 15 Media Al-Qaeda in Iraq 10 10 powder wired to a Nokia mobile incidents terrorism global of % Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb 1 6 blown up in Cargese in Corse-du-Sud. September. Security forces discovered Al-Shabaab 6 5 telephone. 10.0 In Kosovo on 28 September, local media Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C) 5 5 the device during an investigation of the Abu Sayyaf 5 4 sources reported that an explosion in Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) 4 1 Construction site of a suspected bombing attempt on Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam (LTTE) 7 3 In a separate incident on 13 September, Kosovska Mitrovica destroyed an antenna Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA) 2 1 13 September. The main pipeline links Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) 8 1 unidentified militants shot and In Iraq on 7 and 15 September there belonging to Kosovo’s IPKO telecoms two gas0 processing facilities in the gas wounded the general director of the were two attacks upon US PRTs Jul May Sep Jul Nov Sep Jan Nov Mar Mar provider. May The previous day, two grenades fields of block 18 in Marib province to Sulakgidroelectromontazh hydroelectric (Provincial Reconstruction Team). In the were thrown by unidentified assailants Tactic Lethal Non lethal Total liquefaction facilities in Balhaf, Shabwa, Armed attack 322 143 465 company as he drove his car in first, a roadside bomb exploded in the Arson 2 77 79 400km east of Aden province. Both Al- Assassination 112 17 129 Dagestan’s village of Kumtur-kala. Al-Mansooriya area of western Nassiriya. Bombing 571 699 1270 Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) CBRN 0 0 0 In the second, another roadside bomb Cyber attack 0 0 0 Explosive projectile 69 160 229 Hijack 1 11 12 Hoax 0 12 12 Kidnapping/hostage taking 44 197 241 Other and unknown 5 15 20 Siege and barricade 4 7 11 Unarmed attack 2 3 5

Group Attacks p1 p2 p3 Black Widows 5 2 2 1 Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-M) 42 15 20 7 Dima Halam Daogah 1 1 Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) 3 1 2 Karbi Longri National Liberation Front (KLNLF) 3 0 3 Lashkar e-Taiba 1 1 National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) 1 1 Sanyukt Krantikari Committee 1 1 United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) 4 1 3 Unknown 3 3

CTO No. arrests andNo. raids arrested Afghanistan 36 130 Algeria 35 89 Bangladesh 36 47 France 15 78 India 450 168 Rusia 29 20 Mauritania 10 33 Nepal 10 20 Other 131 1075 Pakistan 169 280 Philippines 16 30 Iraq 52 520 Saudi Arabia 3 757 Spain 22 111 Sri Lanka 10 82 Turkey 25 262 United Kingdom 15 32 Yemen 15 136

2007 2008 1 2 4 0 3 4 7 2 5 5 8 4 6 8 11 6 8 13 14 8 9 16 15 12 11 18 17 15 12 20 20 18

Chart 31 20

0 0 5 10 15 20

2007

12 Month Timeline: Attacks in Greece Date No. of attacks Jul-08 2 Aug-08 1 Sep-08 0 Oct-08 1 Nov-08 1 Dec-08 1 Jan-09 0 Feb-09 6 Mar-09 7 Apr-09 2 Text May-09 15 Jun-09 3

Somalia tactical breakdown (last 12 months) Numbers

Armed attack 32 Assassination 20 Bombing 31 Explosive projectile 33 Kidnapping/hostage taking 10 Other 2 Siege and barricade 4

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Holy month 10 11 12 2007 68 35 34 13 71 100 62 62 of Ramadan 51 49 41 33 2008 59 33 42 33 37 55 55 87 49 52 71 82 Average 63.5 34 38 23 54 77.5 58.5 74.5 50 50.5 56 57.5

AQAP activity Year Number of attacks and plots 2003 4 2004 13 2005 2 2006 2 2007 2 2008 0 2009 6

Chart 47 400

300

200

100

0 Untitled 1 Untitled 3 Untitled 5

Feb 3 7 8 6 4 8 4 0 Feb

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 No. of attacks and plots 4 13 2 2 2 0 6

Chart 48 30

22.5

7.5

0 Untitled 1 Untitled 3 Untitled 5 Untitled 7

Untitled 1 Untitled 2 Untitled 3 Target type (Business) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept TOTAL Construction 9 4 3 11 8 6 10 1 7 5 3 6 3 4 6 2 6 1 6 8 16 Critical infrastructure 4 0 3 3 3 11 2 3 3 4 4 8 10 14 10 5 1 14 4 1 4 2 13 7 10 11 6 7 12 8 10 72 Extractives 15 8 10 9 8 16 7 6 5 9 5 16 8 14 12 15 11 7 9 9 33 Financial 2 4 0 4 1 1 1 4 4 6 4 3 6 9 10 8 3 0 8 3 6 Media 6 6 2 6 4 4 3 1 4 7 9 5 4 3 8 1 2 11 6 11 14 Retail 5 18 8 10 3 11 9 1 12 15 7 12 8 7 10 13 8 9 8 8 31 Tourism 2 3 1 2 9 1 5 0 3 4 2 5 4 2 6 3 7 0 4 6 6 Other 4 4 0 4 2 2 4 1 3 5 0 2 0 8 9 6 2 2 7 8 8 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug TOTAL Business Targets 13 20 18 14 30 11 55 58 62 51 54 57 38 56 40 42 53 18 39 55 32 62 40 57 71 54 45 42 56 63 186 Other Targets 129 170 206 196 192 158 112 216 176 200 160 179 191 208 211 213 270 236 311 256Issue 26 / October257 2010 19 277 327 356 328 335 397 351 448 347 505 169 167 274 238 251 214 236 229 264 251 255 323

1.11394335 1.30103 1.2552725 2.2695129 2.11058971 2.2304489 2.3138672 ATTACKS BY SECTOR 2.7032914

Country Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Pakistan 15.555555556 26.108374384 28.138528139 24.14 23.873873874 into the17.7 driveways18.120805369 of two22.115384615 families on22.175732218 The22.580645161 incident was27.962085308 the third attack23.008849558 on 20.087336245an improvised17.045454545 explosive device19.12 (IED)17.254901961 13.003095975 9.842519685 16.691 12.86 12.5 17.60 13.07 12.37 11.54 8.48 7.69 13.68 11.38 Tracker Iraq 15.555555556 21.18226601 15.584415584 9.48 11.261261261 the same8 street14.765100671 in Zvecan.16.346153846 One target11.715481172 employees12.5 of the4.2654028436 state-run TV11.946902655 agency in9.6069868996 connected to a12.5 mobile phone13.54 in23.921568627 the T17.3374613errorism 38.188976378 database and16.691 live 26.69 27.9 26.56 29.15 28.38 21.87 22.88 22.31 23.65 35.49 Afghanistan 7.2222222222 17.733990148 13.41991342 15.52 13.963963964 15.8 16.10738255 11.057692308 9.2050209205 8.8709677419 9.9526066351 12.389380531 6.9868995633 15.53030303 13.54 14.509803922 18.26625387threat map12.204724409 16.691 13.18 8.3 11.94 8.45 8.5 12.78 17.22 20.13 15.38 14.06 India 10 11.822660099 11.255411255 12.07 4.5045045045 included8.2 the8.7248322148 home of Caslav12.980769231 Milisavljevic,12.133891213 September.6.0483870968 7.1090047393 11.061946903 28.384279476Berkat 11.363636364shopping centre in 13.94Grozny.7.8431372549 It was 10.216718266Terrorism Tracker7.4803149606 is a comprehensive global16.691 database of 10.61 6.75 8.95 5.7 8.5 10.57 8.48 5.42 6.55 5.13 Somalia 8.3333333333 5.9113300493 9.0909090909 4.31 8.5585585586 editor in4.4 chief4.6979865772 of Serb-run5.2884615385 Radio station5.4393305439 6.4516129032 7.5829383886 4.4247787611 4.8034934498reported3.0303030303 that the device contained3.18 1.1764705882 0.6kg 2.1671826625terrorist attacks2.3622047244 and plots. Each terrorist event5.4744 is geo-tagged 4.18 6.1 5.07 4.63 2.67 2.57 2.57 2.03 1.42 1.78 Russia 1.775147929 2.3952095808 3.6496350365 5.0420168067 3.984063745 3.813559322 2.5423728814 1.3100436681 7.9545454545 7.5697211155 6.6666666667 7.1207430341to allow its actual9.842519685 location to be viewed using5.83941 the Google 5.14 5.1 4.18 11.17 6.59 4.914 9.00 8.79 11.68 5.80 Yemen ‘Mitrovicaa’. Retail of TNT. Maps™ interface. Terrorism Tracker is updated daily, with new Colombia Thai In Russia on 9 September, a suicide events displayed as they occur. Terrorism Tracker will become On 14 September, unidentified gunmen Tourism an essential part of your threat monitoring activities. Access bomber detonated his explosive-laden is available free of charge to all clients of Aon’s Counter shot and killed a journalist outside vehicle at the entrance of a market in Danish police arrested an unidentified Terrorism team or by subscription from Janusian. For further the Press Club building in Hangu City, Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia. Nineteen man in Copenhagen following a small information about access to Terrorism Tracker please speak Relative lethality April May June JulyKhyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Pakistani to your Aon broker or visit www.terrorismtracker.com. Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths Incidents Deaths people were killed, and 150 more were explosion at the Hotel Jørgensen on Suicide bombings 9 125 19 158 17 110 14 Taliban182 (TTP) claimed responsibility for wounded. On 16 September Riyad- Rømersgade 11 Street on 10 September. Non Suicide bombings 172 453 108 252 275 449 218 the attack.346 On 27 September, a car bomb us-Saliheen Martyrs’ Brigade claimed No casualties or injuries were reported ABOUT AON attack wounded an Iraqiya TV employee, responsibility for the bombing. Later on in the explosion. The bomber was Aon has developed a unique approach to terrorism risk in the Sunni dominated Saidiya district. management, combining expert consulting with the most 16 September, police found and defused arrested near H.C. Orsted Park after appropriate risk transfer solutions. Aon’s specialist Crisis leaving the basement of the Hotel Management division provides integrated risk mitigation, management and transfer solutions against terrorism, political Jul 2009- Jul 2010: 6 MOST AFFLICTED COUNTRIES Russia Pakistan Aviation 2 Jørgensen with explosives strapped risk, kidnap for ransom, extortion, product contamination and Afghanistan Nov 08 - Sep 10: PROPORTION OF ATTACKS ON BUSINESS India Construction 3 around his waist. The man is believed to recall. Aon is the leading global provider of risk management 40.0 Somalia Agriculture 1 500 have been of Chechen origin. services, insurance brokerage, and human capital consulting, Electricity 7 Sep 10: ATTACKS ON BUSINESS BY SECTORdelivering distinctive client value through its 37,000 Utilities 1 colleagues and 500 offices in more than 120 countries. Gas 4 On 18 September, a gunman opened fire Aon is regulated by the Financial Services Authority in Oil 1 respect of insurance mediation activities only. FP ref: 5808. 30.0 Financial 2 on a parked tourist bus outside Delhi’s 375 Land transport 10 main mosque, the Jama Masjid. Two Maritime 1 Taiwanese nationals13% were injured13% in the ABOUT JANUSIAN Other 13 Janusian provides security Constructionconsultancy and services to Retail 14 attack. The gunman, riding pillion on a multinational companies andCritical other large infrastructure organisations. We Tourism 5 20.0 250 motorbike, fired at lest eight rounds from have particular expertise inExtractives the assessment and management a sub-machine10% gun at the bus. Police said of terrorism risk and in assistingFinancial clients to develop suitable the attack occurred at gate number three security strategies. The JanusianMedia team combines intelligence 16% analysts and security specialists, who work in close Number of Incidents Region No. of incidents at the popular tourist destination. cooperation to ensure thatRetail our advice is appropriate to incidents terrorism global of % Yala 11 125 the threats our clients encounterTourism and their business needs. 10.0 Pattani 6 Janusian is the political andOther security risk management practice Narathiwat 8 of The Risk Advisory Group. 13% Songkhla 3 Bangkok 3 Muang 2 www.aon.com www.janusian.com Chonburi 0 0 14% [email protected] [email protected] Mar May Jul May Sep Jul Nov Sep Jan Nov Mar Business Targets Other Targets 17% 5% 2007 2008 2010 Jul 2009 - Aug 2010: 6 MOST AFFLICTED COUNTRIES Region 1 17 26 53 96 Region 2 55 43 70 58 Jul 2009 - Aug 2010: 6 MOST AFFLICTED COUNTRIES 40.0 Russia Pakistan Muang Iraq Afghanistan Yala Pattani Narathiwat Songkhla Bangkok Chonburi India Somalia 11 6 8 3 3 2

30.0

20.0 Group Feb March Taliban (Afghanistan) 33 35 Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) 8 19 Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-M) 20 17

Al-Qaeda in Iraq 10 10 incidents terrorism global of % Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb 1 6 Al-Shabaab 6 5 10.0 Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C) 5 5 Abu Sayyaf 5 4 Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) 4 1 Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam (LTTE) 7 3 Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA) 2 1 Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) 8 1 0 Jul May Sep Jul Nov Sep Jan Nov Mar Mar May

Tactic Lethal Non lethal Total Armed attack 322 143 465 Arson 2 77 79 Assassination 112 17 129 Bombing 571 699 1270 CBRN 0 0 0 Cyber attack 0 0 0 Explosive projectile 69 160 229 Hijack 1 11 12 Hoax 0 12 12 Kidnapping/hostage taking 44 197 241 Other and unknown 5 15 20 Siege and barricade 4 7 11 Unarmed attack 2 3 5