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June 2019 Udia Wa Property Market Statistics

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June 2019 Udia Wa Property Market Statistics UDIA WA PROPERTY MARKET STATISTICS JUNE 2019 1 IN THIS ISSUE KEY TRENDS 4 INDUSTRY UPDATE 5 ECONOMY 6 RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT 7 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SETTLEMENTS 8 CORRIDOR SNAPSHOT 9 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET 11 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 12 2 AT A GLANCE... 3 KEY TRENDS Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change ECONOMY Official Cash Rate Target (RBA) 1.00% (Jun) -25 bps (M) 1.25% (M) 50 bps (M) Discounted Variable Mortgage Rate (RBA) 5.15% (Jun) 5 bps (M) 4.60% (M) 0 bps (M) Estimated Resident Population - WA 2,606,338m (Dec) 0.2% (Q) 2,600,996m (Q) 0.9% Unemployment Rate - WA (Original) 5.9 (May) -17 bps (M) 6.2 (M) -5 bps Retail Turnover - WA (Original) $2.79 b (May) 3.4% (M) $2.76b (M) 1.3% Consumer Price Index - Greater Perth 111.2 (Mar) -0.1% (Q) 111.1 (Q) 1.1% Wage Price Index - WA 130.5 (Mar) 0.3% (Q) 130.1 (Q) 1.6% Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT SECTOR Lot Sales (UDIA Land Snapshot ) 777 (Jun) -22.7% (Q) 852 (Q) -11.2% Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Dwelling Approvals - WA (Original) 1,480 (May) 29.5% (M) 1,344 (M) -11.4% Private Sector House Approvals - WA (Original) 1,046 (May) 12.4% (M) 994 (M) -9.6% Finance Commitments for Construction of New Owner-Occupier Dwellings (Original) 784 (Apr) -2.9% (M) 770 (M) -1.1% Dwelling Construction Starts - WA All Sectors (Original) 3,611 (Dec) -18.7% (Q) 4,014 (Q) -33.8% House Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 864 (May) 8.3% (M) 841 (M) -10.2% Multi-Unit Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 393 (May) 165.5% (M) 303 (M) -6.4% Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Median House Price - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) $487,000 (Mar) -2.4% (Q) $490,333 (Q) -2.6% House Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 5,279 (Mar) -2.4% (Q) 5,416 (Q) -11.1% Unit Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 1,180 (Mar) 2.6% (Q) 1,203 (Q) -15.8% House and Unit Listings - Perth (REIWA) 16,957 (Mar) 5.8% (Q) 16,113 (Q) 4.2% WA Owner-occupier Dwelling Finance Commitments (exc. refin; Original) 3,098 (Apr) -3.2% (M) 3,121 (M) -6.3% Established Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 2,176 (Apr) -2.2% (M) 2,205 (M) -7.5% FHOG Applications - WA (Original) 503 (May) 16.2% (M) 457 (M) -24.0% Value of Investment Housing Loans - WA (Original) $176.91m (Apr) -12.0% (M) $210.76m (M) -17.1% REIWA Average Selling Days - Perth 79 (Mar) 14.5% (Q) 75 (Q) 9.7% Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change RESIDENTIAL RENTAL MARKET REIWA Median House Rent - Perth 360 (Mar) 0.0% (Q) 357 (Q) 2.9% REIWA Vacancy Rate - Perth 2.5% (Mar) -40 bps (Q) 3.1% (Q) -260 bps 4 UDIA WA INDUSTRY UPDATE UDIA WA recently attended the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre’s (BCEC) launch of the BCEC Housing Affordability Report 2019, which highlighted that while some improvements have been seen in WA housing affordability, home ownership in Perth remains out of reach for many on low to moderate incomes. The report outlined that improvements APRA has also officially relaxed its mortgage serviceability buffer, have been seen in perceptions of removing the requirement for ADIs to use a floor rate of at least seven affordability, with less households percent, coupled with an increased floating floor requirement of at paying in excess of 30 percent of their least 2.5% above standard loan rates. income on housing costs and fewer While these recent changes are likely to take some time to influence a struggling often to meet these costs. CHRIS GREEN broader market recovery, they are anticipated to have a positive WA prices and rents have also fallen in Director of impact on the WA property market and assist in addressing at least a many areas, although this has been to Policy & Research few of the identified barriers to home ownership entry. Through this, the benefit of moderate- and higher- one would expect a corresponding easing in rental market pressures. UDIA WA income earners, with low income earners in the private rental market Moving forward, UDIA will be monitoring dwelling commencements, seeing little improvement. owner-occupier finance commitments, lot sales and the rental market for signs of improvement. Leading indicators such as population Further, rents in many Perth metropolitan suburbs saw limited growth and job vacancies will also provide forward indication of market movement, despite the present low supply and vacancy rate. The improvement. effect of this has been compounded by few suburbs recording rent to income ratios in an affordable range (at or below 30% of household At present, the WA population growth rate has been on a gradual income) for households in the lowest quartile of income earners. upward trajectory for the last two years of available records, recording Nationally, Perth is ranked as the least affordable city for renter an annual growth rate of 0.9% as at December 2018. Total WA job housing cost shares (at an average of 27% of household income). vacancies slowed to an annual growth rate of 5.4% as at May 2019, following three consecutive months of 30-45% annual growth. In conjunction with the challenging state of Perth’s rental market for lower income earners, the report identified a range of key barriers to While population growth and job vacancies are generally heading in home ownership entry, including not being able to afford a deposit; not the right direction, this growth has not yet translated to improved having stable employment; not being able to live in a preferred property market conditions. This can be seen in WA dwelling location; and not being able to afford the mortgage payments. commencements figures, which in the December 2018 quarter were at the lowest point since June 2001. In relation to these challenges, the State Government’s 2019 State Budget included temporary changes to Keystart’s eligibility criteria. Further, WA housing finance commitments for first home buyers (FHB) These came into effect as of July 1, with income limits increasing by in the March 2019 quarter fell to the lowest levels since June 2011, $15,000 for singles and couples and by $20,000 for families until the with those for non-FHB at similarly low levels. The number of FHB end of 2019. commitments recorded for the month of April remained at similarly low levels, and 7.1% lower than at the same time last year. While the impact of the changes to Keystart is not yet widely reflected in this month’s Urban Intelligence, the State Government has reported UDIA’s Land Snapshot survey has similarly recorded generally lower a corresponding increase in Keystart enquiries and First Home Owner sales figures over the 2018-19 financial year, with total lot sales over Grant (FHOG) applications since the Keystart changes were this period (3,345 for 2018-19) down 9.3% from the year prior (3,687 announced. FHOG figures for May also revealed a 44.7% monthly lift for 2017-18). Total lot sales for the June 2019 quarter were 11.2% in the number of grants being paid, with these being at the highest below the same quarter the year prior, although sales figures for the level since the same time in 2018. month of June 2018 were somewhat inflated by end of financial year incentive programs run by a few survey participants. More recently and since the release of the BCEC’s report, the RBA has cut the cash rate twice to a new record low of 1.0%, with a In conclusion, while there are some positive signs, the WA property primary aim to bring the national unemployment rate down further and market remains subdued. UDIA will continue to monitor market bring underlying inflation rates back to target (2%). activity and provide members with up to date advice over the coming months. 5 ECONOMY 1400.0 8.0 Key Points of Interest Labour Market, WA (ABS) 1350.0 • The Western Australian unemployment rate for May fell 17 7.0 basis points (bps) over the month to sit at 5.9% (in original 1300.0 6.0 terms; 6.3% seasonally adjusted), 5bps below levels at the 1250.0 same time last year and 84bps above the national rate of 1200.0 5.0 5.1%. 1150.0 • In May, the number of employed persons in WA lifted 0.3% 4.0 Unemployment Rate (%) Rate Unemployment Employed Persons Persons Employed(,000) month-on-month (MoM) to 1.343 million, 0.4% higher than 1100.0 3.0 figures in May 2018. 1050.0 • WA’s state participation rate remained steady in May at 1000.0 2.0 68.48%, but was 42bps lower year-on-year (YoY) and May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 Employed Persons (Original) Unemployment Rate (Seas. Adj.) Unemployment Rate (Original) 219bps above the national rate of 66.3%. Source: ABS 6202.0, T8 • In the December quarter, annual population growth for WA remained steady at 0.9%, bringing the estimated resident Retail Turnover (ABS) 13.0% population to 2.606 million (+23,961 additional persons from YoY WA (Original) YoY Australia (Original) 11.0% the same time in 2017).
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