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Roman Catholic Diocese of London ROMAN CATHOLIC DIOCESE OF LONDON 2011 Pastoral and Personnel Planning Statistical Projections and Analysis Report September 15, 2011 1070 Waterloo Street London, Ontario N6A 3Y2 519-433-0658 Fax: 519-433-0011 [email protected] www.dol.ca September 15, 2011 Dear colleagues and fellow parishioners, In 1991, planning consultant Fred Galloway was invited by the diocese to provide projections of clergy numbers for a fifteen year horizon. Given the changes we face, it is timely now to update our projection of the number of priests available for parish ministry and to undertake a broader collection and analysis of demographic, sacramental, financial and personnel data. For this work, we are grateful to Fred Galloway, the primary author of this report. The following document identifies challenging pastoral and personnel realities that many of us know intuitively. Its publication is representative of the Diocese of London’s ongoing commitment to be transparent and accountable, and to improve the quality of our dialogue and decision-making. The trends surfaced in this report reflect significant shifts in our communities, both over the past twenty years and in the years to come. The potential impacts of these profound changes require thorough discernment, wise decision- making and bold action. Pastoral planning at all levels must engender a Church committed to the building up of the body of Christ, responding effectively and compassionately to people in need. Personnel planning must address short-term, pressing needs while developing a longer- term vision for priestly, diaconal and lay ecclesial ministry roles. St. Peter’s Seminary and the Institute for Catholic Formation are key partners in offering formation and ongoing educational opportunities for these roles of ministry. The diocese is committed to providing for and supporting competent servant leaders who will respond faithfully and effectively to emerging pastoral needs. We face change with hope in the Lord, recalling God’s promise in Jeremiah 29:11 . “For surely I know the plans I have for you, says the Lord, plans for your welfare and not for harm, to give you a future with hope.” May God inspire and guide us and those we serve to respond with generosity and love. In Jesus, Andrew Bartley, MDiv, MBA Rev. Stevan Wlusek Episcopal Director of Pastoral Leadership Episcopal Vicar for Formation and Support Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1­1 2 DIOCESAN POPULATION TRENDS AND PROFILES ........................................................ 2­2 2.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................... 2-2 2.2 SOCIETAL TRENDS .................................................................................................................................................... 2-2 2.2.1 Population Age Profiles ............................................................................................. 2-2 2.2.2 The Changing Face of Canada ................................................................................. 2-3 2.2.3 Technology and Globalization ................................................................................... 2-3 2.2.4 Loss of Affinity ........................................................................................................... 2-4 2.2.5 Volunteerism ............................................................................................................. 2-4 2.3 DIOCESAN GEOGRAPHICAL AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ....................................................................... 2-5 2.3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 2-5 2.3.2 Deanery population profiles ...................................................................................... 2-5 2.3.3 Diocesan Population Profile .................................................................................... 2-15 3 SACRAMENTAL, MASS ATTENDANCE, PARISH AND OTHER STATISTICAL PROFILES ..................................................................................................................................... 3­1 3.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 SACRAMENTAL PROFILES .......................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.1 Baptism ..................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.2 First Communions ..................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.3 Confirmations ............................................................................................................ 3-2 3.2.4 Marriages .................................................................................................................. 3-2 3.2.5 Funeral and Burials ................................................................................................... 3-2 3.2.6 Summary ................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 AVERAGE WEEKEND MASS ATTENDANCE COUNTS ....................................................................................................... 3-4 3.4 PARISHES, MISSIONS, CATHOLIC COMMUNITIES AND CATHOLIC POPULATION PROFILES.................................................. 3-9 3.5 PARISH CONSOLIDATED COLLECTIONS REVENUES ..................................................................................................... 3-11 3.6 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. ................................. 3-12 4 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY ............................................................................................ 4­1 4.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY REPORT ........................................................................................................................ 4-1 4.3 PARISH PRIEST AGE PROFILES 1991 - 2011 ................................................................................................................ 4-2 Roman Catholic Diocese of London PASTORAL AND PERSONNEL PLANNING STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS REPORT Table of Contents i 4.4 2011 TO 2025 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY .............................................................................................................. 4-5 4.5 1975 TO 2025 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY PROFILE ................................................................................................. 4-9 4.6 UNITED STATES DATA .............................................................................................................................................. 4-11 5 PERMANENT DEACON AVAILABILITY ............................................................................... 5­1 6 PARISH LAY ECCLESIAL MINISTERS AND STAFF PROFILE 1975 TO 2010 ............ 6­1 7 CATHOLIC SCHOOL BOARD PUPIL PROJECTIONS ......................................................... 7­1 8 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................... 8­1 8.1 CONSOLIDATED TRENDS GRAPHIC .............................................................................................................................. 8 - 1 8.2 KEY THEMES SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................. 8-1 APPENDIX I .. Selected Base Line Diocesan Collected Data APPENDIX II........... Pastoral Plan for the Diocese of London APPENDIX III.......... Letter from Bishop Fabbro and Synopsis of Report, for Inclusion in Parish Bulletins September 17-18, 2011 Roman Catholic Diocese of London PASTORAL AND PERSONNEL PLANNING STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS REPORT Table of Contents ii 1 INTRODUCTION Over the last twenty years, the Roman Catholic Diocese of London has undertaken various independent statistical collection and analysis initiatives in support of pastoral and personnel, human resources and related planning functions. In 1990, a fifteen year projection report on priest availability in parish ministry was completed. In subsequent years, church attendance, deanery demographic, sacramental participation, parish profile and other data collection projects have also been completed. Some of these initiatives have been ongoing, while others have been undertaken on a one time basis. In the fall of 2010, the Diocese identified an opportunity to continue the development of multi-year projections on priest availability. In the course of these discussions, it was felt that a broader-based, integrated data collection and analysis initiative would benefit long term strategic planning for pastoral, personnel and other functions within the Diocese. To support such a broad initiative, a project team was assembled to bring together multiple statistical dimensions that
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