ROMAN CATHOLIC DIOCESE OF LONDON
2011 Pastoral and Personnel Planning Statistical Projections and Analysis Report
September 15, 2011
1070 Waterloo Street London, Ontario N6A 3Y2 519-433-0658 Fax: 519-433-0011 [email protected] www.dol.ca
September 15, 2011
Dear colleagues and fellow parishioners,
In 1991, planning consultant Fred Galloway was invited by the diocese to provide projections of clergy numbers for a fifteen year horizon. Given the changes we face, it is timely now to update our projection of the number of priests available for parish ministry and to undertake a broader collection and analysis of demographic, sacramental, financial and personnel data. For this work, we are grateful to Fred Galloway, the primary author of this report.
The following document identifies challenging pastoral and personnel realities that many of us know intuitively. Its publication is representative of the Diocese of London’s ongoing commitment to be transparent and accountable, and to improve the quality of our dialogue and decision-making. The trends surfaced in this report reflect significant shifts in our communities, both over the past twenty years and in the years to come. The potential impacts of these profound changes require thorough discernment, wise decision- making and bold action.
Pastoral planning at all levels must engender a Church committed to the building up of the body of Christ, responding effectively and compassionately to people in need. Personnel planning must address short-term, pressing needs while developing a longer- term vision for priestly, diaconal and lay ecclesial ministry roles. St. Peter’s Seminary and the Institute for Catholic Formation are key partners in offering formation and ongoing educational opportunities for these roles of ministry. The diocese is committed to providing for and supporting competent servant leaders who will respond faithfully and effectively to emerging pastoral needs.
We face change with hope in the Lord, recalling God’s promise in Jeremiah 29:11 . . . “For surely I know the plans I have for you, says the Lord, plans for your welfare and not for harm, to give you a future with hope.” May God inspire and guide us and those we serve to respond with generosity and love.
In Jesus,
Andrew Bartley, MDiv, MBA Rev. Stevan Wlusek Episcopal Director of Pastoral Leadership Episcopal Vicar for Formation and Support
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION ...... 11 2 DIOCESAN POPULATION TRENDS AND PROFILES ...... 22 2.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 2-2 2.2 SOCIETAL TRENDS ...... 2-2 2.2.1 Population Age Profiles ...... 2-2 2.2.2 The Changing Face of Canada ...... 2-3 2.2.3 Technology and Globalization ...... 2-3 2.2.4 Loss of Affinity ...... 2-4 2.2.5 Volunteerism ...... 2-4 2.3 DIOCESAN GEOGRAPHICAL AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ...... 2-5 2.3.1 Introduction ...... 2-5 2.3.2 Deanery population profiles ...... 2-5 2.3.3 Diocesan Population Profile ...... 2-15 3 SACRAMENTAL, MASS ATTENDANCE, PARISH AND OTHER STATISTICAL PROFILES ...... 31 3.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 3-1 3.2 SACRAMENTAL PROFILES ...... 3-1 3.2.1 Baptism ...... 3-1 3.2.2 First Communions ...... 3-1 3.2.3 Confirmations ...... 3-2 3.2.4 Marriages ...... 3-2 3.2.5 Funeral and Burials ...... 3-2 3.2.6 Summary ...... 3-4 3.3 AVERAGE WEEKEND MASS ATTENDANCE COUNTS ...... 3-4 3.4 PARISHES, MISSIONS, CATHOLIC COMMUNITIES AND CATHOLIC POPULATION PROFILES...... 3-9 3.5 PARISH CONSOLIDATED COLLECTIONS REVENUES ...... 3-11 3.6 SUMMARY ...... 3-12 4 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY ...... 41 4.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 4-1 4.2 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY REPORT ...... 4-1 4.3 PARISH PRIEST AGE PROFILES 1991 - 2011 ...... 4-2
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4.4 2011 TO 2025 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY ...... 4-5 4.5 1975 TO 2025 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY PROFILE ...... 4-9 4.6 UNITED STATES DATA ...... 4-11 5 PERMANENT DEACON AVAILABILITY ...... 51 6 PARISH LAY ECCLESIAL MINISTERS AND STAFF PROFILE 1975 TO 2010 ...... 61 7 CATHOLIC SCHOOL BOARD PUPIL PROJECTIONS ...... 71 8 SUMMARY ...... 81 8.1 CONSOLIDATED TRENDS GRAPHIC ...... 8 - 1 8.2 KEY THEMES SUMMARY ...... 8-1
APPENDIX I .. Selected Base Line Diocesan Collected Data APPENDIX II...... Pastoral Plan for the Diocese of London APPENDIX III...... Letter from Bishop Fabbro and Synopsis of Report, for Inclusion in Parish Bulletins September 17-18, 2011
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1 INTRODUCTION
Over the last twenty years, the Roman Catholic Diocese of London has undertaken various independent statistical collection and analysis initiatives in support of pastoral and personnel, human resources and related planning functions. In 1990, a fifteen year projection report on priest availability in parish ministry was completed. In subsequent years, church attendance, deanery demographic, sacramental participation, parish profile and other data collection projects have also been completed. Some of these initiatives have been ongoing, while others have been undertaken on a one time basis.
In the fall of 2010, the Diocese identified an opportunity to continue the development of multi-year projections on priest availability. In the course of these discussions, it was felt that a broader-based, integrated data collection and analysis initiative would benefit long term strategic planning for pastoral, personnel and other functions within the Diocese. To support such a broad initiative, a project team was assembled to bring together multiple statistical dimensions that would assist in strategic planning and decision-making related to pastoral and personnel planning. This data included the age of parish priests, deacons, lay ecclesial ministers and other staff; recruitment and terminations (attrition) for the various personnel categories; parish activity data associated with the sacraments and three year average weekend mass attendance; school board student population projections; and other data sets.
A project brief was prepared that focused on the following pastoral and personnel planning statistical projections and analysis initiative.
To collect and analyze a range of data that will support strategic discussions and decision-making on pastoral and personnel planning, human resources and other related functions within the Roman Catholic Diocese of London.
The data utilized in this report has been collected by various staff and departments within the Diocese Chancery Office. This data comes from multiple sources and may not have been consistently collected across the years in all cases. Therefore, some of the statistical data may require some additional interpretation or assumptions resulting in some potential loss of precision on a more finite basis. However, the broader strategic trends are evident from the data provided. Some of the base line data collected by the Diocese is located in Appendix I. Appendix II provides the Pastoral Plan for the Diocese of London.
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2 DIOCESAN POPULATION TRENDS AND PROFILES
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The following population trends and profiles are shaping the demographics and values of many people living in Southern Ontario.
2.2 SOCIETAL TRENDS
2.2.1 Population Age Profiles
It has long been known, that Canada is experiencing, particularly in its urban environments, an ageing population driven by the “Boomer” generations which is currently approximately 49 to 64 years of age. This generation constitutes approximately 30% to 32% of the population in Ontario.
Also over the same period, particularly since the late 1960s, the birth rate in Canada has declined dramatically to the point that natural population replacement is not achievable. The birth rate stands at approximately 1.5 children per female adult when the replacement rate is approximately 2.2. The birth rate has declined annually for over three decades, but did have a marginal increase in 2006. As a result, three major trends have evolved:
Federal government policy focusing on increased immigration to the country to offset population losses;
In the last ten years, the children’s age cohorts have stabilized or marginally declined in absolute numbers in some regions, but have a decline absolutely relative to their proportion of the total population;
Social policy is increasingly focusing on public health / health care as the “Boomer” generation ages and their health requirements become an increasingly important focus to this generation;
Rural Ontario is generally depopulating at a rate of up to 2% a year as the population ages and younger people leave for post-secondary education and / or employment, and then do not return.
The aging trend has resulted in the youth age cohorts stabilizing in absolute numbers but not necessarily declining in some areas. However, their proportionality within the population is declining. This is a significant change, particularly related to social policy development that for decades after the 1950s focused on youth at a young age and then as young adults with significant investments in elementary and secondary schools, post-secondary school institutions, community recreation and many other sectors. However, the change in population mix has resulted in a significant increase and the drawing of resources towards public health which is an older aged population priority
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The ageing phenomenon of the population will continue well into the 2020s and beyond, and will continue to impact public policy and financial investments, particularly related to public health.
2.2.2 The Changing Face of Canada
Canada has identified that it requires 250,000 to 300,000 net new immigrants per year in order to sustain a population of approximately 33 million to 34 million. Government policy has developed a variety of programs to attract immigrants from around the world, which has been a historical development strategy for the country.
What has uniquely changed in the last two decades, and particularly through the late 1990s to today, has been the ever-increasing targets for immigration, now 250,000 to 300,000 a year, as well as the source of immigration. Historically, new immigrants to Canada came from northern Europe, followed by Eastern Europe. These were the founding ethno-cultural groups for the country and throughout its development into the 1950s.
Today, some 70% to 80% of the new immigrants come from Africa, the Middle East, the Far East and South America. These are non-traditional sources for which Canada has had limited cultural integration experience. Also, many of the immigrants coming to Canada have differing ethno-cultural, religious and life experiences that are not as aligned with the Canadian experience as for previous generations and employment. This profile of immigration has created significant settlement challenges that are both typical and unique. Typical challenges would be in the areas of language, family development, education, engagement and related elements. Some of the newer considerations involve different cultural values, religious systems that are not well known or understood in Canada or cultural practices that are not aligned with Canadian expectations and traditions. This mix of challenges results in the need to become more knowledgeable of the immigrant experiences for which some have had horrendous backgrounds related to violence, wars, torture, etc.
For the Catholic Church, this shift in immigration sources is unique as few Catholics come from Africa, the Middle East or Far East. Only South America is a source of new Catholics from these geographies. This trend could impact the rate of Catholic family growth in Ontario over the long term, after years of high Catholic immigration from Europe.
2.2.3 Technology and Globalization
The levels of investment in research and technology continue to grow around the world. As a result, there is a continuing stream of new information on techniques, methods, approaches and strategies in the delivery of social and community services. Much of the new information can often refute or overwhelm previous practices.
In concert with research are the significant day-to-day changes that evolve in the world of technology. Technology covers many domains, communications, operations, service delivery techniques, accountability and reporting requirements, etc. An organization’s ability to not just acquire technology, but to train its staff and stakeholders to use it to its capacity and to sustain continuing investments as technology changes significantly on a regular basis, is another key success factor.
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One of the key technology trends is social media. Proportionately fewer under thirty-five year olds read newspapers, newsletters; have land lines; etc. They are reliant on Facebook, Twitter, apps, etc. to receive information and to communicate. Organizations who are not strongly committed to these technologies will be increasingly marginalized by the younger generations and others, who over time as they age, become the dominant population group.
Also tied into social media, is the interest in globalization. For younger people, the world they live in is much smaller and goes beyond their local communities. These perspectives change the relevancy, communications and value parameters for people. Organizations who cannot adapt to this fast growing reality will become more isolated and less engaged.
2.2.4 Loss of Affinity
Another emerging trend within society is the reduction in affinity that people have with institutions, suppliers and others. This is particularly notable amongst younger generations and expressed in the emerging perspective of “what have you done for me today.” The impact of this trend can alter traditional and counted-on relationships that have existed historically and with which all parties to the relationship had significant comfort. Also, amongst younger populations, the relationship perspectives are uniquely different. They look for greater value, the newest trends or technology, or what is given the greatest focus in popular culture and communications. Some examples are the continuing changing of mobile telephone contracts, not always for price, but simply for applications and look.
Other indicators of changing relationships include how customers switch banks and insurance companies; the changing membership profiles at golf courses and clubs where people are looking for packages rather than single venues; and deteriorating perspectives about government, education, community service providers and others who engage with the public.
For Christian Churches, the loss of institutional affinity over one generation has been significant, with most denominations indicating sharp reductions in attendance and participation on a regular basis. Another generation of such a trend will likely reshape main line Christian faiths related to congregations, perceived value, engagement and related historical strengths.
The decline in institutional affinity is pervasive at one level. For churches, it is driven by perceived reduced relevancy, new forms of communications, education, changing societal values, globalization, civil litigation and loss of moral authority due to abuse, and people’s increasing ability to separate their need for a church structure from their basic faith and values.
2.2.5 Volunteerism
Volunteerism has long been a mainstay of many community service providers, churches, etc. There has been substantive activity by the volunteers in a host of roles. However, significant changes are occurring around volunteerism.
The first trend that is noticeable, is that people seem to have less time for volunteerism or interest in such activity. Often today, it is not that difficult to recruit volunteers for a project with a defined time period but it is often much more difficult to get a commitment on a longitudinal-basis, such as sitting on a Committee or to be involved in an on-going program. This reflects more of the “short attention span” that people have and their desire to get in and out and not necessarily to make longer term commitments.
Also affecting volunteerism, is the increasing scrutiny and red tape associated with volunteers. The need for police checks, the negative press stories about a few volunteers, the expectations of volunteers to be
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2.3 DIOCESAN GEOGRAPHICAL AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
2.3.1 Introduction
In establishing the overall population profile for the diocese on a geographical basis, Census Canada data for the diocese and by deanery has been developed. The key data dimensions have involved total population, age, ethnicity and other dimensions for 1996 and 2006. The data will provide an understanding of the population transitions that are occurring in the general population. Data on religious affiliation that emerges periodically within Census Canada data, and common law families which started in 2001, was utilized based on 2001 availability.
2.3.2 Deanery population profiles 2.3.2.a) Introduction
The following data examines the 1996 to 2006 general population profile changes for each of the seven deaneries within the Diocese of London as depicted below.
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2.3.2.b) Windsor Deanery
Table 1 profiles the Windsor Deanery.
Table 1 Windsor Deanery 1996 2006 Change #%#%#% Population 197,694 100.0 216,473 100.0 18,779 9.5 Age Profile 0-4 13,085 6.6 12,795 5.9 -290 -2.2 5-14 24,230 12.3 26,685 12.3 2,455 10.1 15-19 12,445 6.3 13,860 6.4 1,415 11.4 20-24 15,665 7.9 15,630 7.2 -35 -0.2 25-54 85,845 43.4 94,060 43.5 8,215 9.6 55-64 17,585 8.9 22,435 10.4 4,850 27.6 65-74 16,980 8.6 15,535 7.2 -1,445 -8.5 75+ 11,865 6.0 15,480 7.2 3,615 30.5 Median Age 36.5 37.5 1.0 2.7 % 15 years or older 81.1 81.8 .7 .9 Immigrant 46,250 23.4 59,855 27.7 13,605 29.4 Population Visible Minority 24,800 12.5 45,060 20.8 20,260 81.7 Population Catholic Affiliation 99,525 47.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a (2001) Familes 42,535 4.6 59,230 3.7 16,695 39.3 Common Law (2001) 5,385 9.4 6,050 10.2 665 12.3 Lone Parent 9,900 23.3 12,310 20.8 2,410 24.3
The following points are identifiable:
From 1996 to 2006, the Windsor Deanery population increased by 18,779 individuals, up 9.5% to 216,473 residents. This is a growth rate of just under 1% per year which is a typical non-Greater Toronto Area (GTA) growth rate;
From an age perspective, the age profile for the Windsor Deanery has gone up, with the median age increasing one full year from 36.5 to 37.5 years of age or 2.7%. Also, the percent of the population over the age of fifteen has grown by .7 of a percentage point, up .9%;
In the zero to four, twenty to twenty-four and the sixty-six to seventy-four age cohorts, all had decreases in the absolute numbers of people within those age frames, while all the other age cohorts have growth. The largest single area of growth was the fifty-five to sixty-four year olds at 27.6% reflecting the boomer population moving through to those age frames from the twenty-five to fifty-four year cohort. This aging process will continue as the boomers age and will be even larger in the 2011 census;
The five to fourteen and the fifteen to nineteen age cohorts both show 10.1% and 11.5% growth respectively which reflects the eco-boomer children moving through these age cohorts and some growth in younger aged families. However, the zero to four age cohort, by 2006, had decreased
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by 2.2% and was down almost 300 children reflecting a trend that will be further represented in the school pupil population projections;
The immigrant population has grown from 23.4% or just over 46,000 individuals in 1996 to almost 60,000 individuals or 27.7% of the population in 2006. This is an increase of 13,600 individuals or nearly 30% for identified immigrants in the Windsor population from 1996 to 2006;
As a further demonstration of the New Canadian population, the visible minority population in the Windsor Deanery has grown from 24,800 individuals to over 45,000 individuals, now constituting 20.8% of the population of Windsor in 2006, an increase of 81.7% over the ten year period;
Catholic affiliation was identified in the 2001 census. For the Windsor Deanery, it was just under 100,000 individuals representing 47.7% of the population, reflecting nearly one of every two Windsor Deanery residents self-identifying themselves as being of the Catholic faith;
The number of families in the Windsor Deanery has increased by 39.3%, nearly 17,000 even within the context of an aging population. This growth reflects the fact that the new families are significantly smaller in size, decreasing from 4.6 to 3.7 members by 2006. Family formation remains strong, but the number of children and individuals in families is decreasing;
In 2001, 9.4% of the families were in common law relationships, representing nearly 5,400 families. By 2006, this category had grown to over 6,000 families or 10.2% of the families mix;
Lone parent families constituted 23.3% of the total number of families in the Winsor Deanery in 1996. This category was nearly 20.8% of families in 2006, an increase of 2,410 families, up 24.3%. Though the absolute number of lone parent families grew, the percentage declined as overall family formation increased more than this category. The lone parent family proportion of the family population in the Windsor Deanery is the highest by a significant margin for all the deaneries in the London Diocese.
In summary, the Windsor Deanery population is self-identified as almost 50% Catholic, has grown by 9.5% over the ten years between the censuses, is aging, has had a significant growth in the proportion of the immigrant population within the population and has seen growth in the common-law and lone parent proportions of the family population, with the lone parent proportion being the highest in the diocese.
2.3.2.c) Essex Deanery
Table 2 profiles the Essex Deanery population based on the census data with the following characteristics:
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Table 2 Essex Deanery 1996 2006 Change #%# %#% Population 152,631 100.0 176,929 100.0 24,298 15.9 Age Profile 0-4 10,910 7.1 10,410 5.9 -500 -4.6 5-14 23,890 15.7 25,060 14.2 1,170 4.9 15-19 11,375 7.5 13,225 7.5 1,850 16.3 20-24 10,005 6.6 11,015 6.2 1,010 10.1 25-54 67,035 43.9 76,260 43.1 9,225 13.8 55-64 12,640 8.3 19,230 10.9 6,590 52.1 65-74 10,105 6.6 11,640 6.6 1,535 15.2 75+ 6,665 4.4 9,795 5.5 3,130 47.0 Median Age 34.6 35.1 0.5 1.4 % 15 years or older 77.2 79.8 2.6 3.4 Immigrant 23,840 15.6 27,315 15.4 3,475 14.6 Population Visible Minority 5,325 3.5 10,180 5.8 4,855 91.2 Population Catholic Affiliation 86,580 52.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a (2001) Familes 38,390 4.0 49,840 3.5 11,450 29.8 Common Law 3,255 6.8 3,945 7.9 690 21.2 Lone Parent 4,280 11.1 5,650 11.3 1,370 32.0
The overall population has grown by nearly 16%, from 152,600 individuals to almost 177,000 individuals, up over 24,000 people. This is a faster growth rate than for the City of Windsor, increasing approximately 1.6% per year;
The zero to four age cohort has shown a decline in the absolute numbers of individuals, down 4.6% or 500 individuals over the timeframe. All the other age cohorts have shown growth, however, the highest growth rate is amongst the fifty-five to sixty-four year olds, up 52.1% or nearly 6,600 individuals. The second highest growth rate is in the seventy-five plus age cohort, up 47.0%. The median age has increased by .5, up 1.4%, while the percentage of the population that is fifteen years of age or older has increased by 2.6 percentage points; up 3.4%;
The immigrant population within the Essex Deanery has grown by nearly 3,500 individuals. It was 14.6% of the population in 1996, and represents 15.4% of the population in 2006. Proportionately, immigrant population growth has not aligned with general population growth, as its proportionality has decreased by .2% over the ten years;
The visible minority population has grown by 91.2%, from 5,300 to 10,200 individuals, and in 2006 represented 5.8% of the population. Therefore, within the immigrant population, the largest growth component has come from the visible minorities sector;
Catholic affiliation in 2001 was 52% of the population, the highest in the Diocese of London, representing 86,500 people;
Family formation has grown considerably in the Essex Deanery, up nearly 30% from 38,400 families in 1996 to nearly 50,000 families in 2006. Smaller family sizes are identified, 4.0 in 1996 and 3.5 in 2006;
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Common law families have grown by 2006 to 7.9% of all Essex Deanery families, representing nearly 4,000 families, up 690 families or 21.2% from 1996;
Lone parent families have increased by 1,370 families, or 32.0% over the time period. In 2006, they represented 5,650 families.
In summary, the Essex Deanery has an evident aging profile and has one of the highest population growth rates in the Diocese due to development in Lakeshore, Tecumseh, LaSalle and Amherstburg, and along the Lake Erie shore. The percentage of the population over fifteen years of age has grown considerably as has the immigrant population, with a particular focus on the arrival of visible minorities as the largest growth component of this population group. Catholic affiliation, on a self-identified basis, is the highest in the Diocese at 52.0%. Family formation continues to grow, up 30%, and there is significant growth within the common law and lone parent family categories.
2.3.2.d) Sarnia Deanery
Table 3 profiles the population for the Sarnia Deanery which covers the City of Sarnia and Lambton County. The following demographic characteristics are identified:
Table 3 Sarnia Deanery 1996 2006 Change #%#%#% Population 128,975 100.0 128,200 100.0 -775 -0.6 Age Profile 0-4 8,260 6.4 6,305 12.0 -1,955 -23.7 5-14 19,220 14.9 15,390 7.3 -3,830 -19.9 15-19 9,360 7.3 9,335 6.3 -25 -0.3 20-24 7,750 6.0 8,065 39.4 315 4.1 25-54 53,465 41.5 50,455 13.2 -3,010 -5.6 55-64 12,265 9.5 16,980 8.7 4,715 38.4 65-74 11,235 8.7 11,155 8.2 -80 -0.7 75+ 7,420 5.8 10,515 8.2 3,095 41.7 Median Age 36.8 42.8 6.0 16.3 % 15 years or older 78.6 83.1 4.5 5.7 Immigrant 15,990 12.4 14,700 11.5 -1,290 -8.1 Population Visible Minority 3,035 2.4 3,365 2.6 330 10.9 Population Catholic Affiliation 35,395 27.9 n/a n/a n/a n/a (2001) Familes 31,690 4.1 37,530 3.4 5,840 18.4 Common Law (2001) 3,375 9.2 3,920 10.4 545 16.1 Lone Parent 4,465 14.1 5,358 14.3 893 20.0
The population has decreased marginally over the period by 775 people or .6% of the 1996 population;
Only the twenty to twenty-four, the fifty-five to sixty-four and seventy-five plus year old cohorts have shown increases in population proportionality. The two older age cohorts have shown significant increases of 38.4% to 41.7% respectively;
The younger age cohorts have shown declines in proportionality and losses in absolute numbers. The zero to four cohorts is down almost 2,000 children, some 23.7% over the ten year period, while the five to fourteen year old age cohort is down over 3,800 children, or 20%;
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The median age has risen from 38.6 to 42.8 years, up six full years on average or 16.3%. The percent of residents over the age of fifteen has grown by 4.5 percentage points or 5.7%;
The immigrant population has declined by 1,290 individuals from nearly 16,000 to 14,700 or 8.1%, reflecting the declining population. The visible minority proportion of the general population has increased by 330 individuals or 10.9%;
Catholic affiliation in 2001 was 27.9% or 35,400 people who identified themselves as Catholics;
The number of families has grown from 31,700 to 37,500, up over 5,500 families or 8.4%. Family size has fallen from 4.1 to 3.4 individuals;
Common law families have increased by 545 or 16.1%, while lone parent families have increased by nearly 900 or 28% between 1996 and 2006.
In summary, Lambton County has experienced a marginal decline in population plus a substantial aging of its population, with over 5,700 fewer zero to fourteen year olds in the population profile. The immigrant population has declined with the out-migration of people though the visible minority population has increased by 330 individuals. Catholic affiliation is at approximately 28% or 35,000 individuals, while family formation has increased with smaller family sizes. Both common law and lone parent families have shown significant growth over the ten year period.
2.3.2.e) Kent Deanery
Table 4 examines the demographic profile for the Kent Deanery.
Table 4 Kent Deanery 1996 2006 Change #%#%#% Population 109,650 100.0 108,177 100.0 -1,473 -1.3 Age Profile 0-4 7,080 6.5 5,870 5.4 -1,210 -17.1 5-14 16,240 14.8 13,815 12.8 -2,425 -14.9 15-19 8,055 7.3 7,740 7.2 -315 -3.9 20-24 6,835 6.2 6,965 6.4 130 1.9 25-54 45,780 41.8 43,370 40.1 -2,410 -5.3 55-64 9,760 8.9 13,195 12.2 3,435 35.2 65-74 8,980 8.2 8,850 8.2 -130 -1.4 75+ 6,915 6.3 8,380 7.7 1,465 21.2 Median Age 36.5 41.2 4.7 12.8 % 15 years or older 78.7 81.8 3.1 3.9 Immigrant 10,990 10.0 10,805 10.0 -185 -1.7 Population Visible Minority 3,675 3.4 4,555 4.2 880 23.9 Population Catholic Affiliation 38,120 35.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a (2001) Familes 26,110 4.2 31,145 3.5 5,035 19.3 Common Law (2001) 3,035 11.6 3,735 12.0 700 23.1 Lone Parent 4,125 15.8 4,680 15.0 555 13.5
The following characteristics are identified:
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The population has declined by 1.3% or 1,473 individuals, being 108,200 people in 2006;
Significant aging has occurred in the population with the highest growth in fifty-five to sixty-four and seventy-five plus age cohorts. Significant declines have occurred in the zero to four and five to fourteen age cohorts;
The median age has increased from 4.7 years or 12.8%, while the percent of the population over the age of fifteen years has grown by 3 percentage points or a growth of 3.9%.
The immigrant population has decreased by 185 individuals, or down by 1.7%, now standing at 10,800 individuals. The visible minority population has grown by 880 people, up 23.9% between 1996 and 2006;
Catholic affiliation in 2001 stood at 35.5% or 38,120 individuals;
Family formation has grown by 5,035 units or 19.3% over the ten years, with the average family size declining from 4.2 to 3.5 individuals;
Both common law and lone parent families have increased, common law families by 23.1% up 700 families, while lone parent families were at 4,680, an increase of 13.5% in 2006.
The Kent Deanery has shown a marginal decrease in population over the ten years of nearly 1,500 individuals. The population is aging significantly similar to the Sarnia Deanery. The immigrant population has declined as out migration has occurred though the visible minority population has grown by almost 24%. Catholic affiliation is at over one third of the population. Family formation has increased by just over 19% or 5,000 families, but family size has decreased to 3.5 individuals per family. Both common law and lone parent families have increased significantly within the family mix between 1996 and 2006.
2.3.2.f) London Deanery
Table 5 examines the demographics for the London Deanery. The following demographic characteristics are identified:
Population growth of over 38,800 individuals or 8.1% has occurred over the period, indicating a growth rate of approximately .8% per year;
An evident aging profile is demonstrated with a decline in the zero to four population of 5,216 individuals or 16.1%, as well as the five to fourteen age population. The largest growth by age cohort was amongst the fifty-five to sixty-four and the seventy-five plus year olds;
The median age has increased by three full years or 8.4%, while they percent of the population over the age of fifteen has increased 3.0 percentage points or 3.8%;
The immigrant population has increased by 9%, or over 7,800 individuals, representing in 2006 18.6% of the population or nearly 95,000 people;
The visible minority portion of the population has grown nearly 20,000 individuals or 63.6%;
Catholic affiliation was at 26.7%, or nearly 130,000 individuals in 2001;
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Family formation has increased by 33,530 families, growing 30.9%. Family size has decreased from 4.3 to 3.6 members;
Common law families have grown by 2,840 families to 20.5% of the family population, while lone parent families have increased by 24.3% or 4,460 families to be 16.1% of the family mix within the London Deanery by 2006.
Table 5 London Deanery 1996 2006 Change #%#%#% Population 468,780 100.0 507,584 100.0 38,804 8.3 Age Profile 0-4 32,740 7.0 27,480 5.4 -5,260 -16.1 5-14 66,380 14.2 64,335 12.7 -2,045 -3.1 15-19 30,710 6.6 36,150 7.1 5,440 17.7 20-24 32,780 7.0 37,085 7.3 4,305 13.1 25-54 208,295 44.4 216,255 42.6 7,960 3.8 55-64 38,605 8.2 56,630 11.2 18,025 46.7 65-74 33,810 7.2 35,440 7.0 1,630 4.8 75+ 25,460 5.4 34,400 6.8 8,940 35.1 Median Age 35.5 38.5 3.0 8.4 % 15 years or older 78.5 81.5 3.0 3.8 Immigrant 86,795 18.5 94,605 18.6 7,810 9.0 Population Visible Minority 31,140 6.6 50,935 10.0 19,795 63.6 Population Catholic Affiliation 129,680 26.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a (2001) Familes 108,380 4.3 141,910 3.6 33,530 30.9 Common Law (2001) 13,875 10.4 16,715 11.8 2,840 20.5 Lone Parent 18,360 16.9 22,820 16.1 4,460 24.3
In summary, the London Deanery has shown modest population growth of 8.3%, with a significantly aging population. The two youngest age cohorts are experiencing declines and the older age cohorts are increasing. The immigrant population has increased significantly, greater than the growth in the general population and visible minorities have grown by almost two thirds. The Catholic population is self- identified in the 2001 census at nearly 130,000 individuals. Family formation has been strong with a growth of 33,500 families or 30.9%. Significant growth has occurred within both the common law and the lone parent family units within the family mix.
2.3.2.g) Huron Perth Deanery
Table 6 examines the population profile for the Huron-Perth Deanery.
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Table 6 Huron-Perth Deanery 1996 2006 Change #%#%#% Population 132,330 100.0 133,669 100.0 1,339 1.0 Age Profile 0-4 9,125 6.9 7,570 5.7 -1,555 -17.0 5-14 20,275 15.3 17,915 13.4 -2,360 -11.6 15-19 9,750 7.4 9,805 7.3 55 0.6 20-24 7,855 5.9 8,320 6.2 465 5.9 25-54 52,800 39.9 52,340 39.2 -460 -0.9 55-64 11,660 8.8 15,795 11.8 4,135 35.5 65-74 11,360 8.6 10,820 8.1 -540 -4.8 75+ 9,485 7.2 11,000 8.2 1,515 16.0 Median Age 36.7 40.8 4.1 11.2
% 15 years or older 77.7 80.1 2.4 3.1
Immigrant 10,855 8.2 11,590 8.7 735 6.8 Population Visible Minority 1,820 1.4 2,405 1.8 585 32.1 Population Catholic Affiliation 24,005 18.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a (2001) Familes 32,610 4.1 37,780 3.5 5,170 15.9 Common Law 3,290 8.9 3,880 10.3 590 17.9 Lone Parent 3,575 11.0 4,285 11.3 710 19.9
The following demographic characteristics are identified:
A modest increase in population of just over 1,300 individuals over the ten years, or 1%, resulting in a growth of .1% per year;
The population is aging significantly with declines in both the proportion and absolute number for the zero to four and five to fourteen age cohorts of 17.0% and 11.6% respectively. The fifty-five to sixty-four and the seventy-five plus age cohorts had the highest growth rates;
The medium age has grown by 4.1 per years or 11.2%, while the percent of the population fifteen years of age or older has grown by 2.4 percentage points or 3.1%;
The immigrant population has increased by 735 individuals or 6.8%, to be 8.7% of the total population in 2006. The visible minority population has grown by 585 individuals or 32.1%, now representing 2,405 people. The visible minority portion of the immigrant population has grown more substantively and represents most of the immigrant population growth;
Catholic affiliation in 2001 was 18.0% or 24,000 individuals;
Family formation has grown by 5,170 families or 15.9%. Average family size has moved from 4.1 members in 1996 to 3.5 members in 2006;
Common law and lone parent families have both grown significantly within the family mix. Common law families grew by 590 individuals or 17.9% and now represent 10.3% of all families. Lone parent families have grown by 19.9% or 710 families, representing 11.3% of the family mix.
In summary, the Huron-Perth Deanery has shown marginal growth within an aging population, with significant declines in the zero to four and five to fourteen age population. The immigrant population has grown but predominately due to the growth in the visible minority population. Catholic affiliation is
Roman Catholic Diocese of London PASTORAL AND PERSONNEL PLANNING STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS REPORT Page 2-13 approximately 24,000 individuals. Family formation continues to grow, up 15.9% over the ten years, with both common law and lone parent families growing significantly within the family mix.
2.3.2.h) Ingersoll Deanery
Table 7 examines the Ingersoll Deanery population profile.
Table 7 Ingersoll Deanery 1996 2006 Change #% # %#% Population 160,417 100.0 165,319 100.0 4,902 3.1 Age Profile 0-4 10,580 6.6 8,910 5.4 -1,670 -15.8 5-14 23,895 14.9 21,495 13.0 -2,400 -10.0 15-19 10,970 6.8 11,940 7.2 970 8.8 20-24 9,240 5.8 10,085 6.1 845 9.1 25-54 65,125 40.6 66,170 40.0 1,045 1.6 55-64 13,795 8.6 19,855 12.0 6,060 43.9 65-74 12,760 8.0 13,855 8.4 1,095 8.6 75+ 9,435 5.9 12,985 7.9 3,550 37.6 Median Age 35.5 41.1 5.6 15.8 % 15 years or older 78.5 81.9 3.4 4.3 Immigrant 17,965 11.2 18,930 11.5 965 5.4 Population Visible Minority 3,365 2.1 3,580 2.2 215 6.4 Population Catholic Affiliation 34,820 21.7 n/a n/a n/a (2001) Familes 39,070 4.1 53,920 3.1 14,850 38.0 Common Law (2001) 4,460 11.4 5,455 10.1 995 6.7 Lone Parent 4,845 12.4 6,040 11.2 1,195 8.0
The following demographic characteristics are identified:
The population has grown by 3.1%, or approximately .3% a year, with just over 4,900 new individuals for a total population of 165,319 people;
A strong aging profile is identified with the two youngest age cohorts, zero to four and fifteen to fourteen, declining 15.8% and 10.0% respectively. The largest growth rates are in the fifty-five to sixty-four and seventy-five plus age cohorts;
The medium age has increased 5.6 years, up 15.8%, while the percentage of the population over the age of fifteen has grown by 3.4 percentage points or 4.3%;
The immigrant population has grown by 965 individuals or 5.4%, representing nearly 19,000 individuals. The visible minority population has grown by 250 individuals or 6.4%, and now includes 3,580 individuals;
Catholic affiliation is at 21.7% or almost 35,000 individuals in 2001;
Family formation has grown by 38.0% or almost 15,000 families. There is now 53,920 families, with the average family size decreasing from 4.1 individuals in 1996 to 3.1 individuals in 2006;
Both common law and lone parent families have grown as a percent of total families, 6.7% or 995 individuals for common law families, and 8% or 1,195 individuals for lone parent families.
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In summary, the Ingersoll Deanery has experienced limited growth within a strong aging profile. Immigrant population and visible minorities have both shown some limited growth though significantly less than for other deaneries. Catholic affiliation stands at 21.7%. Family formation has grown by 38% or nearly 15,000 families with some increases in common law and lone parent families.
2.3.3 Diocesan Population Profile
Table 8 summarizes the population profile for the diocese. The following perspectives are identified:
The general population across the diocese has increased by 86,000 people or 6.4% from 1996 to 2006;
The immigrant population has grown by over 25,000 or 11.8%, while the visible minority population has grown by 47,000 or 64.2%;
The number of families has increased by 92,570 or 29.0%;
Common law families have grown over 10,000 families or 29.8%, with lone parent families increasing by 11,600 families or 23.3%.
Table 8 Diocesan Population Profile 1996 2001 2006 Change ### # % Total Population 1,350,477 1,436,351 85,874 6.4 Immigrants 212,725 237,800 25,075 11.8 Visible Minorities 73,160 120,080 46,920 64.1 Families 318,785 411,355 92,570 29.0 Common Law 33,675 43,700 10,025 29.8 Lone Parent 49,550 61,143 11,593 23.4 Catholic Population # 448,125 %32.1
Table 9 consolidates the deaneries across the diocese for the general population information. The following outcomes are identified:
The Windsor Deanery has increased from 14.6% to 15.1% of the general population across the Diocese, and in 2001, 50.3% were Catholics and was home to 22.2% of diocesan Catholics.
For the Essex Deanery, the proportion of the diocesan general population has grown from 11.3% to 12.3%,, and was 56.7% Catholic in 2011 and home to 19.3% of diocesan Catholics;
For the Sarnia Deanery, its population has fallen from 9.6% to 8.9% of the general population across the diocese. It was 29.1% Catholic in 2011 and home to 7.9% of diocesan Catholics;
For Kent County, the proportion of general population across the diocese has declined from 8.1% to 7.5%. It was 34.7% Catholic in 2001 and home to 8.5% of diocesan Catholics.
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In the London Deanery, the proportion of the general population within the diocese has grown from 34.7% to 35.3%, and in 2011, 28.9% of diocesan Catholics lived in this deanery which was 29.7% Catholic;
For the Huron-Perth Deanery, its proportion of the general population representation has declined from 9.8% to 9.4%. This deanery represented in 2001, 5.4% of the Catholics in the diocese, with an 18.1% Catholic population;
For the Ingersoll Deanery, the general population proportionality has declined from 11.9% to 11.5%, and this deanery was home to 7.8% of diocesan Catholic, in 2001 with a Catholic population of 18.1%;
In total, in 2001, the Catholic population represented 32.5% of the general population across the diocesan geographical area.
Table 9 Diocesan Deanery Population Profile Percentage 2001 Catholic 2001 % of 1996 2006 Point Change Affiliation Diocesan Catholic #% # % % # % Pop. Pop. Windsor 197,694 14.6 216,473 15.1 +.5 99,525 50.3 22.2 Essex 152,631 11.3 176,929 12.3 +1.0 86,580 56.7 19.3 Sarnia 128,925 9.5 128,200 8.9 -.7 35,395 27.5 7.9 Kent 109,650 8.1 108,177 7.5 -.6 38,120 34.7 8.5 London 468,780 34.7 507,584 35.3 +.6 129,680 27.7 28.9 Huron-Perth 132,330 9.8 133,669 9.3 -.4 24,005 18.1 5.4 Ingersoll 160,417 11.9 165,319 11.5 ‐0.4 34,820 21.7 7.8 TOTAL 1,350,427 100.0 1,436,351 100.0 448,125 32.5 100.0
The key trends identified from the broader population and demographic assessment is as follows:
The increasing urbanization of the population in the diocese, as the rural areas decline in population and the urban areas grow which reflects farm consolidation, rural depopulation and younger people moving out for post-secondary education and non-farm work;
The increasing proportionality of immigrants, especially visible minorities, within in the urban populations, with some depopulation of immigrant families in more rural areas;
The strong aging profile of all the deaneries, with particular emphasis on some of the rural areas where significant declines in the zero to four and the five to fourteen age cohorts were identified;
Increases in the number of families across the diocese with decreasing family sizes both common law and lone parent families both grew in presence in the family mix;
Approximately one in three individuals living within the general population of the diocese identified themselves in the 2001 census as Catholic.
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Significant demographic trends are occurring in the population. One that should be noted is the significant growth in New Canadians. Based on broader data that is used for trends analysis, for last ten to fifteen years, the majority of New Canadians have come from the Middle East, Far East, Africa and South America. These are non-traditional sources of New Canadians. They also represent areas of the world that have significantly smaller Catholic populations, particularly in the first three identified. Historically, immigration to Canada has been from the Mediterranean, British Commonwealth, Northern and Eastern Europe. Many of these countries, such as Poland, Ireland, Italy, etc. have significant Catholic populations. It is likely, that the immigration trends to Canada will see fewer Catholics among the New Canadians, which will over longer term, reduce the proportionality of Catholics within the general diocesan population.
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3 SACRAMENTAL, MASS ATTENDANCE, PARISH AND OTHER STATISTICAL PROFILES
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Over the course of the last thirty plus years, data has been collected or is available in regards to a number of the sacraments available to Catholics in the diocese within their parishes. Also, for the 2008 to 2010 period, average mass attendance counts were taken for each of the three years to develop projections by parish, deanery and diocese relative to average weekend mass attendance.
The following data provides the figures and tables associated with the information provided to the consultant. The data has some inconsistencies in terms of a year that may be missing in the data set, different starting points in terms of when data was first collected and other factors that may need to be considered in the assessments.
3.2 SACRAMENTAL PROFILES
3.2.1 Baptism
Figure 1 profiles baptismal activity in the diocese since approximately 1975 through to 2009.
The following assessments are provided based on the bar graph:
Up until 1993, which had the highest number of baptisms at 7,236, there was a general upward movement in the number of baptisms per year. Starting in 1994, there has been an ongoing decline, particularly after 1998. The highest point for baptisms was in 1993, the lowest activity level was in 2007, 3,742. This represents a high to low decline of 48.3% baptisms;
Since 2007, baptisms have increased marginally to approximately 4,080 per year;
The decline in baptisms was particularly evident in 2001, but they have been consistently declining since the peak in 1993.
The reasons for the reduction in baptisms could be multi-fold:
An aging population which decreases the proportionality of children aged zero to six in the population, particularly in rural areas where population declines average 1% to 2% per year;
Reduced affinity amongst some Catholics who are detached from the Church to have their children receive sacraments.
3.2.2 First Communions
Figure 2 profiles first communion activity for the period 1988 to 2009. It also provides background bars relative to baptismal activity for the same period. The following perspectives have been identified:
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The peak first communion activity years were 1992 at 6,026 and in 1997 at 6,021;
The lowest year was 2003 at 1,655;
Generally, up to 2004, baptismal activity achieved a higher activity level than first communions. Since 2004, first communions generally have had a higher incident rate than baptisms. This occurs partly because of a declining birth rate and baptismal activity occurring outside of the school system, compared to first communion activity where most children receive the sacrament while in the school system which is a different type of access and availability. It could also represent the fact that there is a seven year delay generally between a baptism and first communion which is impacted by continuing declining birth rates;
Overall, first communions, starting in approximately 2000, have shown some decline with a sharp decline in 2003, followed by a stable activity period, and then declines in 2008 and 2009. The data shows a 72.5% decline between the highest and lowest years. However, taking out the one low year in 2003, the high to low reduction is 38.3%.
On average over the period, 5,184 first communions were recorded per year.
3.2.3 Confirmations
Figure 3 profiles confirmation activity in the diocese from 1988 to 2009. The following statistical assessments are provided:
Confirmations grew consistently from 1988 to a peak of 6,091 in 1993;
Since 1993, there has been a consistent decline in confirmations, falling to 4,306 in 2009, a decline of 29.3%.
3.2.4 Marriages
Figure 4 profiles marriage activity in the diocese between 1975 to 2009. The following statistical perspectives are identifiable:
There has been a significant decline in annual marriages from 2,800 in 1975 to 967 in 2009, a 65.5% drop;
The data indicates a consistent decline on nearly an annualized basis from 1975 through to 2009, resulting in 1975 being the peak year;
The decline in marriages would reflect newer perspectives on marriage amongst younger people, and in more recent years, the post-“boomer” generation has declined in terms of the actual number of younger people in the population proportionately.
3.2.5 Funeral and Burials
Table 10 profiles the funeral activity across the Diocese for the years 1995 to 2010. The number of burials range from a high of 2,823 in 1995 to a low of 2,095 in 2010. The data indicates some decline on a marginal but erratic basis across the fifteen year period. The decline has been relatively consistent on an annual basis since 2005.
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Table 10 Funerals by Year for the Diocese Year Funerals 1995 2823 1996 2737 1997 2535 1998 2760 1999 2762 2000 2662 2001 2513 2002 2387 2003 2702 2004 2412 2005 2529 2006 2499 2007 2411 2008 2356 2009 2314 2010 2095 1995 - 2009 Change #-509 %-18.3 Note: These totals represent all Parishes that submitted their profiles in the specif ied year Not all Parishes have submitted their 2010 profiles
In total, the decline in the number of funerals between the high and low marks has been 509, or 18.3%.
Table 11 profiles the burial activity in Diocesan Cemeteries in Windsor, London and Sarnia in five year increments for the years 1975 to 2010.
Table 11 Total Burials by Year Windsor, London and Sarnia Diocesan Cemeteries 1975 to 2010 1980 to 2010 Change Location 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 # % Windsor 104 115 169 706 791 851 810 815 +700 618.3 London 244 272 325 401 457 411 457 423 +151 55.5 Sarnia N/A 111 201 251 243 274 302 253 +142 127.9 Total 348 498 695 1,358 1,491 1,536 1,569 1,491 +993 199.4
Heavenly Rest Cemetery, since 1990, has had the most significant number of burials, at over 50% of total burials.
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The burial activity has increased year over year. For Heavenly Rest Cemetery, the increase has been from 104 burials in 1995 to 815 in 2010. For St. Peters’ Cemetery in London, it has increased from 244 to 423 burials. For Resurrection Cemetery in Sarnia, it has increased from 111 burials in 1980 to 2,053 in 2010.
For the twenty year period 1980 to 2010 for which data is available, Heavenly Rest Cemetery has increased its annual burials by 618.3%% or 711 burials; St. Peters’ Cemetery 55.5% or 151 burials; and Resurrection Cemetery 127.9%, 142 burials. For all Diocesan Cemeteries, the number of burials since 1980 has increased by approximately 1,000 or 200%.
The growth in burials in the three largest Catholic Cemeteries in the Diocese has shown consistent growth, particularly since 1990. In comparison, the number of funerals in the Diocese has actually been declining over the period.
3.2.6 Summary
Across these four sacraments, the activity profiles indicate similar declines in activity levels. For marriages, the decline has been since 1975 when data collection started. For the other three sacraments, the declines became evident after peaking in and around 1993. The decline ranges from almost two- thirds for marriage to nearly 30% for confirmations.
3.3 AVERAGE WEEKEND MASS ATTENDANCE COUNTS
For the years 2008, 2009 and 2010, parishes have undertaken selective weekend counts of attendance at mass on identified weekends. The precision of the data is variable by parish, tending to be higher in 2008 due to influences around parish reorganization in the years prior to 2008. For 2009 and 2010, the data maybe more precise but remains dependent on the accuracy efforts undertaken by individual parishes.
Figure 5 illustrate the average mass attendance by deanery. For all deaneries except Ingersoll, 2008 was the peak year. For the Essex Deanery evident declines have occurred for both 2009 and 2010. For the other deaneries, the 2009 and 2010 averages tended to be similar to each other, or in the case of Windsor, 2010 was slightly higher than for 2009. The data also indicated, as one would expect, a higher intensity of weekend mass attendance in the more urbanized centres of London, Windsor and Essex compared to the more rural or smaller geographical areas of the diocese.
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In parallel to Figure 5, Table 12 illustrates the average parish weekend mass attendance by deanery and the diocese as a whole, along with growth / decline assessments.
Table 12 Average Parish Weekend Mass Attendance by Deanery & the Diocese Parishes 2008 2009 2010 % Parishes Variance Average indicating # % / Parish decline Windsor 17 783 763 780 41.1 -45 -0.3 -2.6 Essex 16 786 740 701 75.0 -1,367 -10.9 -85.4 Sarnia 10 457 436 437 70.0 -199 -4.4 -19.9 Kent 16 438 405 399 62.8 -623 -8.8 -38.9 London 26 793 743 743 61.2 -1,302 -6.3 -50.1 Huron Perth 17 351 322 324 64.7 -447 -7.5 -26.3 Ingersoll 950548751222.2+61+1.3+6.8 Total Diocese 68,578 64,816 64,656 -3,992 -5.7 -35.3 # of Parishes 111 111 111 111 Average / Parish 618 584 583 Parishes Indicating Decline # 64.0 % 57.7
For the Essex Deanery, the following perspectives are identified for its fifteen parishes:
for each of the three years, a decline in average weekend mass attendance was indicated;
75.0% of the parishes in the deanery experienced declines from 2008;
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The total decline across the deanery was 1,367 people or 10.9% of total deanery attendance between 2008 and 2010;
The decline represented 85 individuals per parish on average over the period.
For the London Deanery and its twenty-three parishes and seven Catholic communities, the following is identified:
61.2% of the parishes indicated declining attendance;
The total decline in attendance was 1,302 individuals, representing 6.3% of total weekend mass attendance compared to 2008;
The decline represented 50 individuals per parish on average.
For the Ingersoll Deanery and its nine (9) parishes and two Catholic communities, the following is identified:
22.2% of the parishes had experienced a reduction in average weekend mass attendance;
Attendance had increased overall in the deanery by 61 individuals per parish, an increase of 1.3% for the deanery;
The average increase per parish was 7 individuals.
In the Huron-Perth Deanery and its sixteen parishes, the following was found:
64.7% of the parishes experienced a decline in average weekend mass attendance;
The decline was 447 individuals on average per weekend or 7.5% of total deanery 2008 weekend mass attendance;
Parishes experienced on average, 26 fewer individuals attending.
For the Sarnia Deanery and its nine parishes and one Catholic community, the following was identified:
70.0% of parishes experienced a decline between 2008 and 2010;
The total decline for the deanery was 199 individuals on average or 4.4% of average weekend mass attendance in 2008;
The reduction represented 20 individuals per parish.
For the Kent Deanery and its fourteen parishes and one Catholic community, the following was identified:
62.8% of the parishes experienced a decline in average weekend mass attendance;
The decline in attendance was 623 on average across the deanery from 2008 levels, representing an 8.8% reduction;
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Kent parishes experienced 39 fewer attendees on average in 2010 than for 2008;
For the Windsor Deanery and its twenty parishes and three Catholic communities, the following is identified:
Some 41.1% of the parishes experienced a reduction in average weekend mass attendance;
The decline in attendance across the deanery was approximately 45 individuals or .3% of total average weekend mass attendance in 2008;
The individual parishes experienced a reduction on average of approximately 3 individuals.
At a diocesan level, the following outcomes emerged from the data:
Total average weekend mass attendance moved from 68,578 individuals in 2008 to 64,656 in 2010. From the data, the following is identified:
o An average weekend mass attendance decline from 2008 to 2010 of 3,922 individuals, or 5.7% of the 2008 levels;
o A reduction in average weekend mass attendance, for the 111 parishes, of 35 individuals per parish;
o Average parish weekend mass attendance across the diocese has gravitated from 618 individuals to 583 individuals from 2008 to 2010;
o 64 of the 111 parishes, or 57.7%, experienced a reduction in average weekend mass attendance from 2008 to 2010.
The data indicates the incremental lowering of averaging mass attendance for the 2008 to 2010 period. The Ingersoll Deanery had the fewest parishes experiencing a reduction and was the only deanery to experience a gain in average weekend mass attendance over the period. The Windsor Deanery remained relatively the same for each of the years of the period, with a 2009 reduction followed by an increase in 2010. The other deaneries experienced incremental reductions in average weekend mass attendance, ranging from a high 10.9% in Essex to a low of 4.4% in Sarnia.
3.4 PARISHES, MISSIONS, CATHOLIC COMMUNITIES AND CATHOLIC POPULATION PROFILES
Table 13 profiles the number of parishes, missions and Catholic communities in the diocese based on diocesan data starting in 1975 and Census Canada population data. The data indicates the following:
There were 143 parishes in 1975 and 106 in 2010. This is a decline of thirty-seven parishes or 25.9%;
In 1975, there were thirty missions. In 2005, there were twenty-one missions, a reduction of 9 or 30.0%. In 2006, missions were discontinued. They became part of a parish, Catholic community or were closed.
The number of parishes and Catholic communities, as well as the discontinuation of missions, reflects the results of parish reorganization that has been ongoing in the diocese for the last ten years.
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Also, included in Table 13 is Catholic population and general population data for 1975 to 2010 for the Diocese of London’s geographic area. It has been sourced from diocesan research and Census Canada data.
In 1975, approximately 286,000 Catholics resided in the Diocese and constituted 25.5% of the general population. By 2000, the Catholic population had risen to 404,121 or 30.5% of the general population. In 2010, the Catholic population is estimated at 444,310 people and 26.9% of the general population. The data is impacted by the fact that Census Canada has not collected religious affiliation data in its five year census since 2001.
Based on the Table 13 data, there has been a growth in the number of Catholics in the Diocese of 158,349 individuals or 55.5% between 1975 and 2010. This proportionately has been effected over the last ten years and will continue to be impacted downwards as immigration from traditionally non-Christian countries continues to grow as forecasted by the federal government.
Table 13 Diocesan Parishes, Missions and Population Profiles Catholic Catholic Total Proportionate % Year Parishes Missions* Communities Population* Population* Catholic 1975 143 30 285,961 1,120,825 25.5 1980 144 32 333,405 1,203,521 27.7 1985 144 25 355,255 1,205,744 29.5 1990 147 28 372,361 1,222,482 30.5 1995 146 24 404,121 1,293,013 31.2 2000 148 23 404,121 1,293,617 31.2 2005 141 21 444,310 1,645,988 26.9 2010 106 0 14 444,310 1,645,988 26.9 Change #-3721 158,349525,663 %-25.9-23.3 55.4 46.9 Notes: Missions - From 2006 onw ards the term "Mission" w as no longer used. Catholic Communities - denotes a stable community that does not offer or is not required to offer a full-range of pastoral services provided by a Parish. The term can be used to denote a former Parish w ith declining population and resources or can signify a new Community that has the potential of becoming a Parish Population* - Number of Catholics in the geographiocal region for the Diocese of London. Total Population* - General population figure in the geographical region for the Diocese of London. Census Canada data on religious affiliation w as terminated in 2001 & prior to that only included in the Census every second cycle
Table 14 examines the parish and catholic community deanery distribution in terms of numbers, percentages and the service ratio using 2001 Catholic population data and the 2011 parish deanery distribution information provided by the Chancery.
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The data indicates that for the 106 parishes, 21.6% of parishes are in London, with between 14% and 19% are in Essex, Huron-Perth and Windsor. Ingersoll and Sarnia have 8.5% of the parishes, with Kent having 13.2%.
In terms of Catholic communities, there are fourteen, of which one half are in London, three or 21.4% are in Windsor and two or 14.2% are in Ingersoll. The Kent and Sarnia deaneries have one each.
In terms of the ratio of the parish distribution to the Catholic population, using 2001 Catholic population data, Huron-Perth has the highest service ratio of one parish to every 1,500 Catholics, followed by Kent with one parish to every 2,528 Catholics. Ingersoll and Sarnia have similar ratios of one parish to approximately 3,900 to 4,000 Catholics, while the more populated communities of Essex, Windsor and London have service levels of approximately one parish to 5,000 to 5,800 Catholics. Service levels are higher in the large urban centres, reflecting less travel time and the urban development framework compared to the multiple small communities in the rural areas of the diocese that historically each had their own parish. The overall diocese ratio is one parish for every 4,227 Catholics.
Table 14 Parish and Catholic Community Deanery Distribution Parish to Catholic 2001 Catholic Deanery Parishes Catholic Communities Populations Population Ratio Windsor 20 18.9 3 21.4 99,525 1:4,976 Essex 15 14.2 0 0.0 86,580 1:5,772 Sarnia 9 8.5 1 7.2 35,395 1:3,993 Kent 14 13.2 1 7.2 38,120 1:2,723 London 23 21.6 7 50.0 129,680 1:5,638 Huron-Perth 16 15.1 0 0.0 24,005 1:1,500 Ingersoll 9 8.5 2 14.2 34,820 1:3,869 TOTAL 106 100 14 100.0 448,125 1:4227
Note: Missions: from 2006 onwards the term "Mission" to denote a non-paraochial Church was discontinued. Generally missions were closed with parish Reorganization beginning in 2005
3.5 PARISH CONSOLIDATED COLLECTIONS REVENUES
Table 15 profiles the Parish Consolidated Collection Revenues across the Diocese for the period 1994 to 2010 for seventeen years. For the Offertory / Sunday Envelope / Loose Collections, revenues have increased from approximately $20.3 million to $24.1 million. This is an increase of $3.9 million per year or 15.9%. For the Easter / Christmas Collections, the growth in income has been from $1.9 million to $2.3 million, an increase of $377,000 per year or 16.5%.
For The Sunday Offertory Collections, the increase has averaged $242,638 a year, or approximately 1.2%. For the Easter / Christmas Collections, the increase has averaged $23,553 a year, or 1.5%. The growth in collections is hovering slightly less than inflation for the period.
On a year to year basis, the Offertory Collection showed growth from 1995 through to 2001. After 2001, negative year to year changes are identified for six of the years, with only three years, 2004, 2005 and
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2006 having positive growth. The highest year to year growth years were 1994 to 1995, 4.2%, and 1999 to 2000, 5.4%. The largest decline year to year, was 2006 to 2007, 3.7 %.
For the Easter / Christmas Collections, a similar pattern is identified as for the Sunday Offertory Collections. Up until 2001, there had been annual increases year to year. In 2002, a decline over 2001 is identified at 2.4%, and only three years after that have year to year increases. The largest year to year increase was 1997 to 1998, 6.1%. The largest decline year to year, was 2007 to 2008, 8.6%. This could reflect the impact of the recession which was in full bloom in 2008.
In summary, the data indicates approximately six years of growth year to year and then declines year to year moving forward. However, the overall growth across the seventeen years is almost $4 million for Sunday Offertory Collections, and almost $377,000 for the Easter / Christmas Collections.
However, almost all this growth occurred between 1994 and 2001. For the Sunday Offertory Collections, there has been an actual decline of almost $750,000 from the peak year 2001 to 2010, $241,000 for the similar period for the Easter / Christmas Collections.
Table 15 Consolidated Parish Revenue Collections 1994 to 2010 Year Offertory/Sunday Annual Easter/Christmas Annual Ended Env./Loose % Change Collections % Change 1994 20,267,972 1,911,590 1995 21,117,616 4.2 2,043,257 6.9 1996 21,312,237 .9 2,086,305 2.1 1997 22,106,322 3.7 2,145,583 2.8 1998 22,726,860 2.8 2,276,560 6.1 1999 23,248,652 2.3 2,323,016 2.0 2000 24,501,641 5.4 2,470,045 6.3 2001 24,854,294 1.4 2,529,050 2.4 2002 24,705,753 -.2 2,469,610 -2.4 2003 24,655,421 -.2 2,527,299 2.3 2004 24,849,499 .8 2,493,982 -1.3 2005 25,173,370 1.3 2,395,066 -4.0 2006 25,929,152 3.0 2,459,783 2.7 2007 24,979,278 -3.7 2,450,495 -.4 2008 24,672,987 -1.2 2,240,845 -8.6 2009 24,578,228 -.4 2,299,710 2.6 2010 24,090,179 -2.0 2,288,443 -.5 Change $3,882,207 376,853 %15.9 16.5
3.6 SUMMARY
The sacramental and average mass attendance data indicates constantly declining levels of activity. For most sacraments, this began to occur at more evident levels post 1993.
Some of the reductions in pre and school-age sacraments would be associated with declining birth rates, as further identified by the declining student populations in Catholic schools, particularly in rural areas.
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There has been a reduction of twenty-nine parishes and fifteen missions between 1975 and 2010. There are now 147 parishes and catholic communities compared to 171 parishes and missions in 1975.
Funerals have shown modest declines, while burials in Diocesan Cemeteries have grown significantly.
In terms of average weekly mass attendance, one sometimes hears a figure of approximately 450,000 to 475,000 Catholics identified as residing within the Diocese of London by 2010. Based on 2010 average weekend mass attendance of 64,656 individuals, this would result in an average participation range by London Diocese Catholics of 13.6% to 14.4% per weekend average.
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4 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Over the last two decades, priest availability for parish ministry in the Diocese of London has been examined on two levels. The first is the inclusion of the 1991 report results. This has been followed by the preparation of new projections based on a significantly higher level of data that has been collected over the last number of years by the diocese involving age, retirement, attrition and related availability variables.
The following chart profiles the 2011 Diocesan Incardinated Priests profile by positions.
Number of Diocese of London Incardinated Priests 151 Number of Retired Priests 59 Number of Priests on Leave of Absence 3 Number of Priests in Designated Ministry, (Seminary, Hospital and Administration) 18 Number of Priests Ministering Outside Diocese 2 Number of Priests in Parish Ministry 69
4.2 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY REPORT
1991 TO 2005 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY
Table 16 provides the parish priests projections per diocesan incardinated and non-incardinated priests completed in 1991 for the 1991 to 2005 period. Religious order priests were not incorporated into the projections as there was no data on ordination, attrition, retirement or sabbatical rates. This table indicated that there were 178 incardinated and non-incardinated diocesan parish priests available for active parish duty in 1991, including eleven priests not in parishes but potentially available upon reassignment. The forecast was that this figure would fall to between 125 to 146 in 1995, 89 to 120 by 2000 and 62 to 100 by 2005. Two different projection models were utilized as there was no data on priest retirements, attrition, etc. and estimates had to be made. The final number in 2005/2006 was in the area of 109 parish priests. Therefore, the projections were relatively accurate considering the number of priests recruited from other countries and related perspectives that occurred during the 1991 to 2005 period.
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Table 16 1991 to 2005 Incardinated and Non-Incardinated Parish Priests Projected Availability Profile 1991 to 1995 1996 to 2000 2001 to 2005 ABABAB Annual Active Parish Start of Period 178 178 146 125 120 89 Estimate Retirements During Period (33) (42) (28) (29) (23) (20) Active Losses During Period (10) (20) (10) (20) (10) (20) Loss due to covering Non-Parish (1) (3) (3) (2) (2) (2) Retirments New Diocesan Priests additions 12 12 15 15 15 15 During Period Annual Active Parish Priests End 146 125 120 89 100 62 of Period Cumulative Reduction # 32 53 58 89 78 116 Cumulative Reduction % 18.0 30.0 32.6 50.0 43.8 65.1 Compounded Annual Rate of Decline 3.9% 7.2% Note: A&B reflect two different models of retirement and attrition profiles as no data was collected on these themes in 1991.
4.3 PARISH PRIEST AGE PROFILES 1991 - 2011
1991 and 2011 age profile comparisons have been developed for diocesan incardinated, non-incardinated and religious order priests working in parish ministry.
Table 17 illustrates the 2011 parish priests’ age profile for the total number of priests ministering in Diocese of London parishes. This data includes Diocese incardinated priests, non-incardinated priests from other dioceses and religious order priests ministering in parishes. This data does not include priests who are in non-parish roles. The following age perspectives are outlined.
Table 17 2011 Parish Priest Age Profile Diocese Incardinated Priests Non-Incardinated Religious Order Priests TOTAL Priests Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative #% % #% % #% % #% % 25 - 30 2 2.9 2.9 1 9.1 9.1 0 3 3.0 3.0 31 - 40 5 7.2 10.1 2 18.2 27.3 0 7 7.0 10.0 41 - 50 19 27.5 37.7 5 45.4 72.7 4 20.0 20.0 28 28.0 38.0 51 - 60 18 26.1 63.8 0 0.0 72.7 7 35.0 55.0 25 25.0 63.0 61 - 65 16 23.2 87.0 1 9.1 81.8 5 25.0 80.0 22 22.0 85.0 66 - 70 6 8.7 95.7 0 0.0 81.8 1 5.0 85.0 7 7.0 92.0 70+ 3 4.3 100.0 2 18.2 100.0 3 15.0 100.0 8 8.0 100.0 TOTAL 69100.0 11 100.0 20 100.0 100100.0
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For Diocesan incardinated priests working in parish ministry, 37.7% of the priests are fifty years of age or younger and 62.3% of the priests are fifty-one years of age or older, of which 36.2% are over the age of sixty. Assuming a retirement age of seventy, 25 of the current incardinated priests working in parish ministry would be retiring within the next ten years;
For non-incardinated parish priests, eleven are identified, of which 72.7% are fifty years of age or younger and 27.3% are older than fifty. They have a younger age profile than the incardinated priests working in parish ministry;
For religious parish priests, there are twenty identified, of which 20% are under the age of fifty and 80% are fifty-one years of age or older. Some 35% are sixty-one years of age or older which represents a significant loss of priest availability in the next ten years depending on retirement age assumptions for this category;
From a total parish priest perspective, some 37.0% of current parish priests are fifty years of age or younger and 63.0% are fifty-one years of age or older. Some 37 parish priests are sixty-one years of age or older and could be retiring in ten years;
The youngest two age cohorts of parish priests, twenty-five to thirty and thirty-one to forty years of age, represent only 10.2% of diocesan incardinated priests, three of the eleven non-incardinated priests and there are no religious priests in these younger age cohorts.
Table 18 compares the 1991 diocesan incardinated parish priest’s age profile for 1991 and 2011. The data indicates the following:
Significant declines in all age categories, particularly the twenty-one to thirty, thirty-one to forty, sixty-one to sixty-five and the sixty-six to seventy age cohorts;
A decline from 164 parish priests in 1991 to 69 in 2011, down 95 or 57.9%
The data indicates the continuing aging perspective of the incardinated diocesan parish priest population where 30.5% were under the age of forty in 1991 compared to 13.6% by 2011, that is eight priests in 2011 compared to fifty in 1991. There have also been significant declines in the number of priests in the sixty- one to seventy age category.
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Table 18 1991 and 2011 Diocesan Incardinated Priest's Age Profile 1991 2011 Change #%Cumulative % #%Cumulative % # % 21-30 14 8.5 8.5 2 2.9 2.9 -12 -85.7 31-40 36 22.0 30.5 5 7.2 10.1 -31 -86.1 41-50 28 17.1 47.5 19 27.5 37.7 -9 -32.1 51-60 35 21.3 68.9 18 26.1 63.8 -17 -48.6 61-70 46 28.0 96.9 22 31.9 95.7 -24 -52.2 70+ 53.0100.034.3100.0-2-40.0 -57.9 TOTAL 164 100.0 69 100.0 -95
Table 19 profiles the non-incardinated priest age perspectives involving fourteen parish priests in 1991 and eleven in 2011. The decrease in incardinated priests has been limited to three or 21.4%. By 2011, almost three quarters of the incardinated priests were forty-one to fifty years of age as there were six compared to one in 1991. The age profile has actually become a little younger as the under-forty priests represent a 14.2% of the 1991 population compared to 18.2% in 2011. However, the dominant age group in 2011 is the forty-one to fifty year olds which enhances a younger age profile than in 1991.
Table 19 1991 and 2011 Non-Incardinated Parish Priests Age Profile 1991 2011 Change Cumulative Cumulative #% % #% %#% 21-30 00.00.019.19.11100.0 31-40 214.314.31 9.118.2-1-50.0 41-50 17.121.4654.572.75500.0 51-60 321.442.91 9.181.8-2-66.7 61-70 535.778.61 9.190.9-4-80.0 70+ 321.4100.01 9.1100.0-2-66.7 TOTAL 14 100.0 11 100.0 -3 -21.4
Table 20 compares the 1991 to 2011 age profiles for religious order parish priests. Similarly, the data indicates a significant aging profile. In 2011, there are no religious order priests under the age of forty compared to six in 1996. There has also been a significant reduction in the seventy plus year old religious order priests from ten in 1991 to three to 2011.
In total, the religious order parish priests have declined from forty-six in 1991 to twenty in 2011, down twenty-six or 56.5%. A further consideration is that the number of religious order / apostolic communities has declined from fifteen in 1991 to nine in 2011, down 40.0%
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Table 20 Religious Order Parish Priests Age Profile 1991 2011 Change Cumulative Cumulative #% % #% %#% 21-30 00.00.00 0.00.00 0.0 31-40 613.013.00 0.0 0.0-6-100.0 41-50 715.228.34 20.020.0-3-42.9 51-60 919.647.87 35.055.0-2-22.2 61-65 715.263.05 25.080.0-2-28.6 66-70 36.569.61 5.085.0-2-66.6 70+ 10 21.7 91.3 3 15.0 100.0 -7 -70.0 unknown 48.7100.00 0.0 -4-100.0 TOTAL 46 100.0 20 100.0 -26 -56.5
From the data, parish priest availability will continue to be impacted by the age profile of the current parish priests, with significantly more priests sixty-one years of age and older than under the age of forty, a ratio of 2.7 older priests to one younger priest. The forty-one to fifty and the fifty-one to sixty age cohorts represent 60% of the priests currently working in parishes and reflect the last generations of substantial annual ordinations. It is interesting to note, that for the ten year period thirty-one to forty years of age, there are seven priests compared to the next ten year cohort, forty-one to fifty years of age, which has twenty-eight priests. This is a ratio of four to one to the older side. This ratio is influenced by the religious priests not having any priests in the two younger age cohorts.
4.4 2011 TO 2025 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY
Tables 21 and 22 assist in developing the parish priest availability projections. Table 21 examines the forecasted graduations from St. Peter’s Seminary for the Diocese of London priests for the period 2010 to 2015. The average addition is 1.7 per year and this figure has been used in the formula. Table 22 examines the average annual priest recruitment / attrition profiles in each of the priest availability categories including one incardinated priest in parish ministry required for administration roles every ten years to offset attritions and retirements in this category. For the non-incardinated and religious categories, attrition (leaves of absence, leaving the priesthood, deaths, etc.) exceed recruitment. An annual average availability factor has been developed for each of the three categories, which for diocesan incardinated priests, was approximately .5 of a priest per year, minus .8 of a priest for non-incardinated priests and minus 2.0 religious priests a year based on statistical patterns for 2004 to 2010.
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Table 21 2010 to 2015 Diocese of London Projected Ordinations from St. Peter's Seminary 2010 2 2011 2 2012 1 2013 1 2014 2 2015 2 TOTAL 10 Average 1.7 per year
Table 22 Average Annual Parish Priest Recruitment (Ordination) / Attrition Profiles Dicoese Non- Religious Incardinated Incardinated Recruitments/Ordinations 1.7 2.1 2.4 Attrition -1.1 -2.9 -4.4 Administration Coverage -0.1 0 0 Net Impact on Parish Priest Availability -0.5 -0.8 -2.0
Another component of the parish priest availability assessment involved retirements and sabbaticals. Data was provided by the diocese that indicated that between 2011 and 2015, nine incardinated priests would retire, along with one religious and no non-incardinated priests. For the period 2016 to 2020, eleven incardinated priests, five religious order and one non-incardinated would retire. For the period 2021 to 2025, eleven incardinated, four religious order and one non-incardinated priests would retire. These projections were incorporated into the projection models.
The data to this point, assumes no new or replacement non-incardinated or religious order priests. Therefore, unlike for incardinated priests with incoming priests for the seminary, these two categories will show significant declines only in this first level of analysis. A second level of analysis assumes replacement for all current non-incardinated and religious order parish priests.
Relative to sabbaticals, the data indicated that there would be four sabbaticals for incardinated priests between 2011 to 2015, three for the period 2016 to 2020 and zero for the following five year period. No non-incardinated sabbaticals were identified and only one religious sabbatical was identified in the 2011 to the 2015 period. This data has also been incorporated on a five year average incremental basis.
Table 23 examines the parish priest projections for incardinated priests from 2011 to 2025 in three five year increments. From a starting number of sixty-nine diocesan incardinated priests in parish ministry, the model projects a net incardinated parish priest availability of 61.5 in 2015. With the projected retirements, in 2020 there would be fifty-two incardinated priests and 42.5 in 2025. This would be a reduction of twenty-six to twenty-seven or 39.1% for incardinated priests working in parish ministry between 2011 and 2025.
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Table 23 Five Year 2011 to 2025 Diocesan Incardinated Priest Projections 2015 2020 2025 2011 Start 69 61.5 52 Net Recruitments/Attritions 2.5 2.5 2.5 Projected Retirements -9 -11 -11 Sabaticals -1 -1 -1 Net Incardinated Priest Availability 61.5 52.0 42.5
Table 24 examines the same model projections for non-incardinated priests. It starts with eleven priests in 2011, with the loss of four over the five year period to 2015 resulting in seven non-incardinated parish priests available in 2015. This is lowered to two priests by 2020, and shortly thereafter, there would be no such priests available.
Table 24 Five Year 2011 to 2025 Non-Incardinated Parish Priest Projections 2015 2020 2025 2011 Start 11 7 2 Recruitments/Terminations (-.8x5) -4 -4 -4 Projected Retirements 0-1-1 Sabaticals 00 0 Net Non-Incardinated Parish Priest 72 0 Availability
Table 25 examines the same model projections for religious parish priests in the diocese. In 2011, there are twenty such priests and then significant reductions are identified. By 2015, there would be eight such priests, and shortly thereafter, there would be zero.
Table 25 Five Year 2011 to 2025 Religious Order Parish Priest Projections 2015 2020 2025 2011 Start 20 8 0 Recruitments/Attrition (-2x5) -10 -10 0 Projected Retirements -1 0 0 Sabaticals -1 0 0 Net Religious Order Parish 80 0 Priest Availability
The non-incardinated and the religious order priests, based on the current date, would decline to zero availability shortly after 2020.
Table 26 aggregates the projections data from Tables 23, 24, and 25 to reflect the universal parish priest availability profile. It indicates that by 2015, there would be seventy-seven parish priests available, fifty- four by 2020 and forty-two, all diocesan incardinated priests, by 2025. By 2025, based on the accuracy of
Roman Catholic Diocese of London PASTORAL AND PERSONNEL PLANNING STATISTICAL PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS REPORT Page 4-7 the data provided and the assumptions made, there could a reduction of 58.0% in the number of parish priests available, falling from 100 in 2011 to forty-two in 2025 if non-incardinated and religious order parish priests leaving parish ministry were not replaced between 2011 and 2025.
Table 26 2011 to 2025 Total Projected Priest Availability Profile Assuming No New / Replacement Non-London Diocese Diocese Non-London Diocese TOTAL Incardinated 2011 69 31 100 2015 62 15 77 2020 52 254 2025 42 042 Net +/- #-27 -31 -58 %-39.1-100.0-58.0 Note: 1. Fractional figures in Table 23 rounded up for 2011 and down for 2025 2. Non-London Diocese includes non-incardinated and religious order parish priests
This first level of analysis reflects a continuation of the patterns identified in the 1991 Parish Priest Availability Report. There is a series of assumptions and other perspectives that could change or alter the statistics. In potentially defining a range for parish priest availability, one could consider that availability by 2025 will likely fall between thirty and forty parish priests.
The presence of religious priests and diocesan priests from other dioceses than London (non-incardinated priests ministering in our diocese) have been part of the diocese since its inception. Over the years, the needs of the diocese have been met in part by religious orders from Europe and South America to respond to language and particular pastoral needs.
Recently, parish priest needs have been responded to in part by priests from South America, Asia and Africa where the Church is experiencing growth in the number of vocations. Currently, the diocese receives many requests for pastoral work opportunities from Bishops, Superiors and individual priests who seek to serve in the Diocese of London. The availability of these priests in the future could change the scope of the present priest projections outlined in Table 24.
It has been the diocese’s experience that religious orders normally take the responsibility to replace priests who go on sabbatical or who retire, based upon the approval of the Diocese of London. In the case of diocesan priests from other dioceses than London (non-incardinated priests ministering in the diocese), the Diocese of London takes the responsibility to find replacements.
Another factor influencing religious order priest availability for parish placements was, that between 2004 and 2008, the diocese undertook a reduction in / consolidation of the number of parishes under the Parish Re-organization Program. This initiative reduced the level of recruitment of religious order priests during that time frame which had some impact in lowering the number of religious order priests in the diocese during that period and subsequently compared to what number may have been in place if parish consolidation had not occurred.
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Table 27 profiles parish priest availability in the diocese assuming that all current non-incardinated and religious order parish-based priests who are lost to retirement or attrition are replaced on a one to one basis over the time period. This is a second level of analysis on parish priest availability that results from the previous paragraphs that indicate the flexibility and variability associated with the recruitment of non- incardinated and religious order priests for parish ministry. Table 27 indicates that the number of parish priests would decline from 100 in 2011 to seventy-three in 2025, a decline of twenty-seven parish priests or 27.0%. This decline is 46.7% less than outlined in Table 26, resulting in seventy-three parish priests versus forty-two parish priests.
What Table 26 and 27 identify is that between 2011 and 2025, the diocese would need to recruit thirty-one non-diocesan priests, either non-incardinated or religious order, in order to sustain the current number of parish priests within these two categories. If that was achieved, as historically has occurred, the rate of decline and availability of parish priests would be approximately one half the rate of decline in availability based on the assumptions in Table 26.
The data on parish priest availability addresses only quantitative considerations and perspectives on parish priest availability within the diocese. It does not address any qualitative considerations in the recruiting of non-diocesan priests. Quantitatively, the Diocese could have from forty-two priests to seventy-three parish priests by 2025 as Tables 26 and 27 demonstrate. Also, the age profile continues to grow evidently older.
Table 27 2011 to 2025 Parish Priest Availabiity Profile Assuming Current Non-Dicoesan Parish Priests Are Replaced But No Growth Occurs Diocese Non-London TOTAL Incardinated Diocese 2011 69 31 100 2015 62 31 93 2020 52 31 83 2025 42 31 73 Net +/- #-270-27 %-39.10-27.0 Note : Non-London Dioce s e include s non- incardinated and religious order parish priests
4.5 1975 TO 2025 PARISH PRIEST AVAILABILITY PROFILE
Table 28 profiles parish priest availability for all three priests categories based on actuals from 1975 to 2010 and the projections from 2015 and 2025 for both non-diocesan non-replacement (A) and replacement (B) scenarios.
Under scenario A, the data indicates a significant reduction in availability for the non-incardinated and religious order priests, a decline based on projections of 100% by approximately 2020. The decline for diocesan incardinated parish priests is 72.9% or 113 parish priests. In total, the reduction is 165 parish priests from the high of 207 in 1980, a decline of 79.7% between 1975 and 2025.
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Under scenario B which replaces existing non-diocesan priest attritions and retirements, the total decline in parish priest availability is 134 priests or 64.9% from the high of 207 in 1980.
For the diocese of London, parish priest availability will reach between forty-four priests if no offsetting of losses in non-diocesan priests occurs to seventy-three if such attritions are replaced on a one to one basis.
Table 28 1975 TO 2025 Parish Priest Availability Actuals (1925 to 2010) and Projections (2015 to 2025) Diocese Year Non Incardinated Religious Order TOTAL Incardinated ABABAB 1975 155 3 3 42 42 200 200 1980 151 12 12 44 44 207 207 1985 129 10 10 47 47 186 186 1990 142 8 8 40 40 190 190 1995 132 14 14 43 43 189 189 2000 113 12 12 32 32 157 157 2005 90 19 19 31 31 140 140 2010 69 11 11 20 20 100 100 2015 62 7 11 8 20 77 93 2020 52 2 11 0 20 54 83 2025 42 0 11 0 20 42 73 Change #-113-19 (high)-8-47 (high)-27165-134 %-72.9-100-42.1-100-57.4-79.7-64.7
Table 29 Percent of Priests by Category for A and B Scenarios Year Diocese Incardinated Non-Dicoesan A B A B 1975 77.5 77.5 22.5 22.5 1980 72.9 72.9 27.1 27.1 1985 69.4 69.4 30.6 30.6 1990 74.7 74.7 25.3 25.3 1995 69.8 69.8 30.2 30.2 2000 72.0 72.0 28.0 28.0 2005 64.3 64.3 35.7 35.7 2010 69.0 69.0 31.0 3.0 2015 80.5 66.7 19.5 33.3 2020 96.3 62.7 3.7 37.3 2025 100.0 57.5 0.0 42.5 Note: Based on Table 28 data
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Table 29 examines the percent distribution of diocesan and non-diocesan parish priests based on the A and B scenarios, A involving no replacements for non-diocesan and B assuming a one to one replacement ratio but no growth in the current numbers.
The data indicates that in 1975 some 22.5% of parish priests in the diocese were non-diocesan. This has continued to grow to nearly 30% in 2000 and to over one third by 2005. However, based on the 2010 to 2025 data being added, under Scenario A, the result is the availability of non-diocesan priests moves to zero and therefore incardinated parish priests represent 100%. However, what may be more reflective of the situation is the Scenario B, which involves any loss of non-diocesan priests being replaced by recruitment by the diocese or through Memorandums of Understandings with religious orders, that would see 42.5% of parish priests by 2025 being non-diocesan.
4.6 UNITED STATES DATA
Some comparison can be drawn from United States data. The Centre For Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University in a 2011 report, provided data on parish priest availability in the United States. Table 30 captures the data that was provided. It covers the 1960 to 2060 period. The data and projections indicate that parish priest availability will decline from 34,315 in 1960 priests to 11,779 in 2060 under current trends. On a twenty year incremental basis, the declines would be from a 26.8% at the high end to 12.6% at the low end. In total, there would be 22,536 fewer parish priests, a reduction of 65.7% or nearly two thirds of parish priests over the 100 year period.
Table 30 United States Parish Priests Availability 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 TOTAL 34,315 30,000 22,500 19,122 14,000 11,779 20 Year Change Increments # N/A -4,315 -7,500 -3,378 -5,122 -2,221 -22,536 N/A -12.6 -25.0 -15.0 -26.8 -15.9 -65.7 %
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5 PERMANENT DEACON AVAILABILITY
Table 31 outlines the number of permanent deacons in active ministry in the Diocese from 1991 to 2010. Since 1995, the permanent diaconate’s presence has evolved from two individuals to thirty-nine, up thirty- seven positions for the years data is available.
Table 31 Permanent Deacon Profile 1991 to 2010 Year Permanent Diaconate 1991 0 1995 2 2000 0 2005 15 2010 39 Change #37 %1850.0 since 1995
In recent years, the Diocese has been assembling data on gender, age, location and related perspectives associated with the permanent diaconate. Table 32 provides the following information with regard to the age of the permanent deacons in active ministry.
Table 32 Permanent Deacons by Age Profile Permanent Deacons DOL Non-Incardinated Total Age Cohorts #%# %#% 36 to 40 0 0 41 to 45 1 2.8 1 2.6 46 to 50 1 2.8 1 2.6 51 to 55 25.6 25.1 56 to 60 8 22.2 8 20.5 61 to 65 11 30.6 11 28.2 66 to 70 12 33.3 1 33.3 13 33.3 71+ 1 2.8 2 66.7 3 7.7 TOTAL 36 100.0 3 100.0 39 100.0
The following assessments are provided from the data:
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There are thirty-nine permanent deacons in active ministry, of whom thirty-six are incardinated deacons and three are non-incardinated;
The youngest permanent deacons fall within the forty-one to forty-five age range. There are only four permanent deacons under the age of fifty-five;
Sixty-one percent of the permanent deacons are fifty-six to sixty-five years of age, and almost 33% or one third are over sixty-six years of age.
Table 33 examines the location of the permanent deacons by Deanery. The following is identified:
London has the highest concentration of permanent deacons, nine or 23% of the total;
Essex and Kent have the second highest concentrations, at seven permanent deacons, or 17.9%;
Windsor and Ingersoll have five permanent deacons each, accounting for 12.8% of the total in each Deanery;
Sarnia has four permanent deacons, 10.2% of the total;
Huron Perth has two permanent deacons, or 5.1% of those in active diaconal ministry.
Table 33 Permanent Deacon Location by Deanery Profile Permanent Deacons #% Windsor 5 12.8 Essex 7 17.9 Sarnia 4 10.3 Kent 7 17.9 London 923.1 Huron-Perth 2 5.1 Ingersoll 5 12.8 TOTAL 39 100.0
Based on the data provided by the Diocese, Table 34 examines availability of permanent deacons for the 2010 to 2020 period. These projections are based on the following assumptions:
The current average age of fifty-eight years at ordination will be maintained.
There will be approximately ten ordinations every two years, based on the ordinations to date (2005 – 14; 2007 – 11; 2009 – 10) and the seven men expected to be ordained in November, 2011.
There are twelve men in each of the current formation and Study Classes of 2013 and 2015. Not all these men may proceed to ordination.
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Permanent deacons in the Diocese are required to submit their resignation, at age seventy, to the Bishop for his consideration. It is projected that permanent deacons will, on average, minister actively until the age of 72, health and other considerations permitting.
Table 34 Diocese of London Permanent Deacons Availability Projections
Availability Graduation Attrition Net Availability
2010 39 39 2015 39 25 6 58 2020 58 25 23 60
As a result, starting with thirty-nine permanent deacons in 2010, there are expected to be fifty-eight permanent deacons available in 2015 and sixty in 2020. This simplified data set indicates that there will initially be significantly more ordinations than attritions but that the number of permanent deacons will approach a plateau by 2020.
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6 PARISH LAY ECCLESIAL MINISTERS AND STAFF PROFILE 1975 TO 2010
Table 35 outlines the number of lay ecclesial ministers and parish support staff within parishes in the Diocese between1975 to 2010. For Lay Ecclesial Ministers, the numbers have grown from nine to seventy-eight, an increase of sixty-nine such positions over the years, or 766.7%. For parish support staff, the increase has been from 462 individuals in 1995 to 513 people in 2010. This is a growth rate of 11.4% or fifty-one positions. The peak number of Lay Ecclesial Ministers and parish support staff was in 2000 followed by a decline to 2005, with some increase for Lay Ecclesial Ministers between 2005 and 2010. This later reduction in numbers could reflect the parish restructuring program undertaken by the diocese through those years.
Table 35 Lay Ecclesial Ministers and Staff Profile 1975 to 2010 Lay Ecclesial Parish Year Ministers Support Staff 1980 9 N/A 1985 42 N/A 1990 48 N/A 1995 72 462 2000 83 522 2005 69 516 2010 78 513 Change #6951 %766.7 11.4
In recent years, the Diocese has been assembling data on gender, age, location and related perspectives associated with Lay Ecclesial Ministers. Table 36 provides the following information on various statistical perspectives on these human resources grouping.
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Table 36 Lay Eccelesial Ministers by Age Profile Pastoral Ministers / Pastoral Parish Coordinators of Workers/Coordinators Total Ministers Nurses Youth Ministry of Youth Ministry Cumulative Age Cohorts # %#% # % # % #% % 20 to 25 2 5.3 0 0 2 7.1 45.33.5 26 to 30 2 5.3 0 0 5 17.9 79.214.5 31 to 35 1 2.6 0 1 16.7 0 22.617.1 36 to 40 2 5.3 0 0 1 3.6 33.921.0 41 to 45 410.50 0 5 17.9 911.832.8 46 to 50 513.20 3 50.06 21.4 14 18.4 51.3 51 to 55 410.50 1 16.75 17.9 10 13.2 64.5 56 to 60 718.4125.01 16.73 10.7 12 15.8 80.2 61 to 65 513.2250.00 1 3.6 810.590.8 66 to 70 410.50 0 0 45.396.1 71 + 2 5.3 1 25.0 0 0 33.9100.0 TOTAL 38 100.0 4 100.0 6 100.0 28 100.0 76 100.0
The following assessments are provided from the data:
For pastoral ministers, seven, or approximately 18.5% are under the age of forty; thirteen or just over one third are between the ages of forty-one and fifty-five, and 48% are over the age of fifty- six;
For parish nurses, all four are over the age of fifty-six;
For the combined position of pastoral minister, worker and coordinators of youth ministry, there are only six, of which five are over the age of forty-six;
For coordinators of the youth ministry, there are twenty-eight, with approximately one half being under the age of forty-five and one half being over that age.
In total, there are 76 positions identified. Some 51% are under the age of fifty and approximately 49% are over the age of fifty, with 15.8% fifty-six to sixty years of age, 10.6% sixty-one to sixty-five years of age, and another 9.2% over the age of sixty-six.
Table 37 provides the gender profiles of the seventy-six people in pastoral minister, pastoral minister/worker, parish nurses and coordinators of youth ministry roles. The following is identified:
Seventeen or 22.3% of the seventy-six positions are male, and fifty-nine or 77.7% are female;
All four parish nurses are female;
Almost 86% of coordinators of youth ministry are female, as are almost 76% of the pastoral ministers.
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Table 37 Lay Ecclesial Ministers' Gender Profile Male Female #%# %Total Pastoral Ministers 10 26.3 28 74.7 38 Parish Nurses 0 4 100.0 4 Pastoral Ministers / Workers / Coordinators of Youth Ministry 350.0350.06 Coordinators of Youth Ministry 4 14.3 24 85.7 28 TOTAL 17 22.3 59 77.7 76
Table 38 examines the lay ecclesial ministers’ deanery locational profile. In terms of the 76 positions, the following is identified:
London has the largest concentration of these positions, twenty-four or 31.1% of the total;
Essex and Windsor have the second highest concentrations, at seventeen and thirteen positions respectively, or 22.4 and 17.1%;
Huron Perth has two positions, or 2.6% of the total positions;
Kent, Ingersoll and Sarnia Deaneries have 11.8%, 7.9% and 6.6% of these positions respectively.
There is a direct relationship between the concentration of these positions with the intensity of the urban population within the diocese, being concentrated in London, Essex and Windsor.
Table 38 Lay Ecclesial Ministers Deanery Locational Profile Pastoral Ministers / Coordinators of Pastoral Ministers Parish Nurses Workers/Coordinators Total Youth Ministry of Youth Ministry # %#%# % #%#% Windsor 6 15.8 2 50.0 1 16.7 4 14.3 13 17.1 Essex 7 18.4 0 4 66.7 6 21.4 17 22.4 Sarnia 2 5.3 0 1 16.7 2 7.1 56.6 Kent 6 15.8 0 0 3 10.7 911.8 London 14 36.8 2 50.0 0 8 28.6 24 31.6 Huron-Perth 1 2.6 00 13.62 2.6 Ingersoll 2 5.3 0 0 4 14.3 67.9 TOTAL 38 100.0 4 100.0 6 100.0 28 100.0 76 100.0
Table 39 examines the 2004 to 2010 lay ecclesial ministry transitions for pastoral ministers and coordinators of youth ministry. During this time frame, the data indicates for pastoral ministers, that thirty- four positions were recruited over the period, and there were thirty terminations resulting in a net reduction of four positions.
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Table 39 2004 to 2010 Lay Ecclesial Ministry Position Transitions Pastoral Coordinators of Ministers Youth Ministry Recruitment 2004 to 2010 34 30 Attritions 38 27 2004 to 2010 Net Position 2004 to 2010 -4 3 +/- Note: Of the thirty-eight Pastoral Minister attritions (pastoral ministers and pastoral case workers/parish nurses) twenty-two retired and one is deceased.
For coordinators of youth ministry, there were thirty positions recruited during 2004 to 2010, with twenty- seven terminations, resulting in a net gain of three such positions across the Diocese.
The pattern for the last six years would indicate relative stability with some pluses and minuses in each of these two human resource roles. The recruitment of such positions is not as impacted by the training requirements that are associated with priests or permanent deacons, and therefore, there may be broader opportunities to recruit these parish staff positions. The factors associated with the availability of these individuals and their skills at the parish level appears to be is influenced more by need, affordability and related factors.
In summary, the lay ecclesial ministers across the diocese, reflect a population with an average age of fifty years. These positions are significantly focused on female incumbents, 77.7%. There is also a direct relationship between deanery locational placement for these positions and larger urban centres.
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7 CATHOLIC SCHOOL BOARD PUPIL PROJECTIONS
Table 40 examines the Diocesan Catholic School Board Pupil Projection trends. This involves five school boards, the Windsor Essex Catholic District School Board, the St. Clair Catholic District School Board, the London Catholic District School Board, the Huron-Perth Catholic District School Board and the Counseil scolaire ecoles de district des ecoles catholique du Sud-Ouest. The data from the five boards is collected differently in terms of the last three years, as well as how projections are developed. Some boards project to a longer term, i.e. 2019 / 2020, while other boards only projected out to 2013 to 2014.
Table 40 Diocesan Located Catholic School Boards Pupil Population Trends 2008/09 to 2013/14 Variance +/- SCHOOL BOARDS 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2013/2014 2019/2020 # % WECDSB Elementary 16,339 15,768 15,307 12,800 N/A -3,539 -21.7 Secondary 8,556 8,649 8,850 8,100 N/A -456 -5.3 TOTAL 24,895 24,417 24,157 20,900 N/A -3,995 -16.0
SCCDSB Elementary 7,184 6,945 6,697 6,482 6,478 -702 -9.8 Secondary 3,210 3,153 3,028 2,803 2,556 -407 -12.7 TOTAL 10,394 10,098 9,725 9,285 9,034 -1,109 -10.7
LCDSB Elemntary 12,362 N/A N/A 11,066 10,232 -1,296 -10.5 Secondary 8,651 N/A N/A 7,731 6,503 -920 -10.6 TOTAL 21,013 N/A N/A 18,797 16,735 -2,216 -10.5
H-PCDSC Elementary 3,298 3,212 3,150 2,943 N/A -345 -10.5 Secondary 1,610 1,575 1,525 1,416 N/A -194 -12.4 TOTAL 4,908 4,787 4,675 4,359 N/A -539 -11.0
CSDDDECDSO Elementary 5,417 5,924 6,452 6,323 N/A 906 16.7 Secondary 1,454 1,568 1,546 1,512 N/A 58 4.0 TOTAL 6,871 7,492 7,998 7,835 N/A 964 14.2
DIOCESE - WIDE Elementary 44,600 N/A N/A 39,614 N/A -4,976 ‐11.2 Secondary 23,481 N/A N/A 21,562 N/A -1,919 ‐8.2 TOTAL 68,081 N/A N/A 61,176 N/A -6,895 ‐10.1 Note: Includes only data for deanery areas in the Diocese of London exept for the County of Norfolk
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For all five boards, the trend line for both elementary and secondary panels is mostly a reduction in the number of students except for the French Catholic Board. The following trends are identified.
For the Windsor Essex Catholic District School Board, the following is identified:
From 2008 / 2009 to 2013 / 2014, the number of elementary students will decline from 16,339 to 12,800. This represents a decline of 3,539 students or 21.7%;
For secondary school students, the 2008 / 2009 figures 8,556 students compared to the projected 8,100 students in 2013 / 2014, a decline of 456 students or 5.3%.
For the total board, the student population will fall from 24,895 to 20,900, a decline of 3,995 students or 16.0%;
In their projections report, they predict a stable student population after 2013 / 2014.
For the St. Clair Catholic District School Board, the following pupil trend lines are identified:
For the elementary students, the 2008 / 2009 figure was 7,184 students which will decline to 6,482 by 2013 and 6,478 by 2019 / 2020. This is a reduction of 702 students or 9.8%;
For the secondary school students, 2008 / 2009 figure is 3,210 students, falling to 2,803 students in 2013 / 2014 and 2,556 students by 2019 / 2020. This is a decline of 407 secondary school students or 12.7%.
For the board overall, the student population will fall from 10,394 in 2008 / 2009 to 9,285 in 2013 / 2014 and 9,034 in 2019 / 2020. This is a decline of 1,109 students or 10.7%.
For the London Catholic District School Board, the following trend lines are identified:
For elementary students, the 2008 / 2009 figure was 12,362 which will decline to 11,066 by 2013 / 2014 and 10,232 by 2019 / 2020. This represents a reduction of 1,296 elementary students or 10.5%;
For secondary school students, 2008 / 2009 had a registration of 8,651 students which will decline to 7,731 in 2013 / 2014 and 10,232 in 2019 / 2020. This is a reduction of 1,296 students or 10.5%;
Overall, for the London Board, 2008 / 2009 saw a registration of 21,113 students which is projected to be 18,797 students in 2013 / 2014 and 16,735 in 2019 / 2020. This is a drop of 2,616 students or 10.5% by 2013 / 2014.
The following data was identified for the Huron-Perth Catholic District School Board:
The elementary school student population is forecasted to decline by 345 students or 10.5% between 2008 / 2009 and 2013 / 2014;
The secondary school population is forecasted to decline by 194 students or 12.4%;
For the total school board, a reduction 539 students is forecasted or 11.0% by 2013 / 2014.
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For the Conseil scolaire de district des ecoles catholiques du Sud-Ouest, covering only those areas within the diocese except for the County of Norfolk, the following trends are identified:
An increase in student population of 906 at the elementary panel level or 16.7%;
An increase in the secondary school panel student population of 58 students or 4.0%;
A forecasted increase for the total board by 2013 / 2014 of 964 students or 14.2%.
On diocese-wide basis, the following was identified for the Catholic School pupil populations:
A reduction of nearly 5,000 elementary school students or 11.2% by 2013 / 2014;
A reduction of just over 1,900 secondary school students or 18.2% by 2013 / 2014;
A total Catholic School student pupil population reduction of approximately 6,900 or 10.1% by 2013 / 2014.
The total Catholic School student population in 2008 / 2009 was 68,081 students. This forecasted to decrease to 61,176 by 2013 / 2014.
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8 SUMMARY
8.1 CONSOLIDATED TRENDS GRAPHIC
Figure 6 provides a line graph for all the major data elements to indicate, over variable time periods related to data availability, the key trend lines. What is identified, from a summary perspective, is simply that there is a significant downward trend for all the data areas.
8.2 KEY THEMES SUMMARY
The following points summarize a number of the key themes that have emerged from the data assessments:
Modest general population growth across the diocese with just about 35% of the population self- identifying themselves as Catholics in the 2001 Census;
A population that is aging significantly, particularly in rural areas, with most growth in urban centres;
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Significant growth in immigrant and visible minority populations, and in common law and lone parent families;
A relatively consistent decline in sacramental participation levels, particularly since 1993, with the declines ranging from 30% to 65% from 1993 to 2009;
Funerals have declined 18.3% from 1975 to 2010,while burials in the larger Catholic Cemeteries in the Diocese increased 200% for 1975 to 2010;
Some marginal decreases in average weekend mass attendance over the last three years for which data was available, with only the Ingersoll Deanery experiencing an increase;
Of the 111 parishes within the weekend mass data, some 61% have experienced declines in average weekend mass attendance over the period. The reduction in attendance across the diocese was approximately 3.5%, ranging from a gain of .3% in the Ingersoll Deanery to a decline of 6% in the Essex Deanery;
Consolidated parish collection revenues grew between1994 to 2001, but have declined since 2001. They have increased 15.9% between1994 to 2010 for Sunday Offertory Collections and 16.5% for Easter / Christmas Collections, with the growth primary prior to 2001.
Parish priest availability will continue to decline, similar to the trend lines identified in the 1991 study. The current total of 100 parish specific priests will fall to seventy-seven by 2015, fifty-four by 2020 and forty-two by 2025, a decline of 58.0% if no replacements for non-diocesan priests are secured. If replacements are secured, total availability will be ninety-three in 2015, eighty-three- four by 2020 and seventy-three by 2025;
Permanent Deacons represent 39individuals, of which approximately 5.2% are under the age fifty and 61.5% are over the age of sixty;
There are seventy-six lay ecclesial ministers in parishes in 2011, of which 51.3% are under the age of fifty and 77.7% are female, including 85.7% of the coordinators of youth ministry;
Based on the assumptions on graduation rates for deacons, there should be a steady rate of availability, moving from the current thirty-seven deacons in 2010 to potentially sixty by 2020;
There is a direct relationship between the deanery locational profile for both permanent deacon and lay ecclesial ministry positions with population density, with London, Essex and Windsor having the highest levels of placement, over two-thirds of these positions;
For pastoral ministers and coordinators of youth ministry, availability is influenced by other factors than for priests and deacons. These include the recruitment of people from various educational backgrounds, need, parish affordability, etc. Since 2006, there has been relative stability within the recruitment and attrition of both pastoral ministers, which was down four positions over the period, and coordinators of youth ministry, which has increased by three positions from 2006 and 2010.
Catholic school board enrolment is forecasted to decline by 5,000 students or 11.2% at the elementary level and 1,900 students or 18.2% at the secondary level by 2013 / 2014. This
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represents a total decline of 10.1% or 6,900 students over the 2010/2011 to 2015 / 2014 school years.
The data indicates the continuing trends that have been identified for approximately twenty plus years in parish priest availability, mass attendance, sacramental activities, etc. These outcomes are influenced by a wide range of societal, Catholic community and related values and participation trends.
From a strategic perspective, three analytical outcomes are identifiable from a broad pastoral and personnel planning perspective:
The continuing forecasted decline of parish priest availability in the lowest availability scenario could be to levels that would see approximately one priest for every 2.5 existing parishes in the future, or one priests for every 1.4 parishes under Scenario B. The continuing aging of parish priests is also strongly identified. The implications this trend will have on how parishes are organized, led and supported in the future will need to be assessed;
Evident downward transitions in sacramental activity levels that are influenced by a wide range of factors, ranging from lower birth rates, changing multi-cultural populations from Catholic to non- Christian countries, societal influences, religious institutional / structure affiliation and affinity, etc. All these factors will influence pastoral planning, parish configurations and personnel strategies if the trends continue, whether at marginal or substantive levels;
Potential need for increased financial contributions from a declining church attendance base to cover aging buildings, growth in lay ecclesial ministers, on-going inflation and other costs.
The continuing change perspectives that exist within the diocese’s operating environment are significant and will need critical attention, understanding and effective planning as the environment continues to evolve. As a result, new strategies and perspectives will likely need to be considered, evaluated, tested and then potentially implemented as appropriate to meet both the opportunities and needs of the Diocese of London Catholic Community in the future.
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APPENDIX I Selected Base Line Diocesan Collected Data
#1 - ESSEX DEANERY (700) Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOLincardinated Religious Non-Incardinated Total Priests Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL in Parish Ministry Ministries * Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 17 3 18 9 0 27 1 1980 17 3 18 6 1 25 1 1 1985 17 3 20 8 1 29 1 7 1990 17 3 20 3 23 8 1995 17 1 20 4 1 25 13 51 2000 17 1 21 4 25 17 48 2005 15 3 18 2 2 22 3 14 47 2010 15 3 11 2 3 16 7 15 53 2011 15 3 12 2 3 17 0 7 16 57
#2 - WINDSOR DEANERY (600) Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOLincardinated Religious Non-Incardinated Total Priests Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL in Parish Ministry Ministries Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 35 1 39 17 56 4 1980 36 1 36 22 2 60 4 2 1985 35 1 32 16 4 52 3 12 1990 35 1 31 16 1 48 1 15 1995 35 1 27 14 1 42 4 20 80 2000 34 1 21 11 2 34 3 22 87 2005 32 1 18 6 7 31 2 4 18 91 2010 20 3 11 5 3 19 2 5 14 87 2011 20 3 14 6 3 23 2 5 16 91
# 3 - KENT DEANERY (500) Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOLincardinated Religious Non-Incardinated Total Priests Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL in Parish Ministry Ministries Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 21 3 21 4 1 26 1 1980 20 4 24 2 1 27 1 1 1985 20 4 22 4 1 27 1 3 1990 20 4 21 3 1 25 7 1995 20 4 20 6 2 28 1 9 33 2000 21 4 14 5 1 20 1 13 48 2005 21 4 13 5 0 18 1 9 58 2010 14 2 6 4 0 10 2 7 7 50 2011 14 2 7 3 0 10 2 6 6 57
#4 - HURON-PERTH DEANERY - (300) (note until 1990 Huron-Perth Deanery known as Stratford Deanery) Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOL Religious Non-Incardinated Total Priests Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL in Parish Ministry Ministries Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 16 8 17 1 0 18 0 1980 16 9 15 1 1 17 0 1 1985 17 8 1 1 1 3 0 3 1990 17 8 12 3 1 16 0 4 1995 17 8 15 1 0 16 0 4 42 2000 17 8 12 2 0 14 0 1 2 44 2005 18 5 9 3 2 14 0 2 1 45 2010 16 2 9 0 1 10 0 2 4 33 2011 16 2 8 0 2 10 0 2 2 33 # 5 - SARNIA DEANERY (400) Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOLincardinated Religious Non-Incardinated Total Priests Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL in Parish Ministry Ministries Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 15 3 14 3 0 17 2 1980 15 3 14 2 0 16 1 1 1985 15 1 13 3 0 16 0 3 1990 16 1 14 3 0 17 0 2 1995 16 1 15 3 1 19 0 7 34 2000 18 0 10 2 2 14 0 4 43 2005 16 0 8 3 0 11 0 1 5 36 2010 9 2 7 2 0 9 0 4 4 44 2011 9 2 6 3 0 9 0 4 4 38
# 6 - LONDON DEANERY (100) Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOLincardinated Religious Non-Incardinated Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL Ministries Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 26 9 31 5 2 38 23 1980 27 8 30 8 5 43 17 3 1985 28 5 30 11 2 43 18 10 1990 27 7 32 8 4 44 14 9 1995 26 6 24 11 5 40 8 16 85 2000 26 6 24 7 6 37 8 18 94 2005 25 6 16 10 7 33 6 1 16 118 2010 23 8 15 9 3 27 14 4 27 114 2011 23 8 15 11 4 30 14 9 28 106
# 7 - INGERSOLL DEANERY (200) Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOLincardinated Religious Non-Incardinated Total Priests Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL in Parish Ministry Ministries Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 13 3 15 3 0 18 0 1980 13 4 14 3 2 19 0 1985 13 3 11 4 1 16 0 4 1990 15 4 12 4 1 17 0 3 1995 15 3 11 4 4 19 0 1 3 28 2000 15 3 11 1 1 13 0 1 7 36 2005 14 2 8 2 1 11 0 3 6 31 2010 9 3 7 0 3 10 0 5 6 35 2011 9 3 7 0 3 10 0 5 6 31
# 8 - 1975-2010 Historical Summation - Statisticial Analysis of Parish Ministry Personnel Priests in Parish Ministry Year Parishes Missions/Churches/ DOLincardinated Religious Non-Incardinated Total Priests Priests Designated Permanent Lay Ecclesial Parish Support Catholic Communities Priests Priests Priests in DOL in Parish Ministry Ministries Deacons Ministers Staff 1975 143 30 155 42 3 200 31 0 1980 144 32 151 44 12 207 24 0 9 1985 145 25 129 47 10 186 23 0 42 1990 147 28 142 40 8 190 15 0 48 1995 146 24 132 43 14 189 13 1 72 355 2000 148 23 113 32 12 157 12 2 83 403 2005 141 21 90 31 19 140 8 18 69 441 2010 106 23 66 22 13 101 18 39 77 454 2011 106 23 69 25 15 109 18 39 78 451 Notes: #1 Grey shaded areas indicate no complete data avaialble prior to 1995 #2 Priests in Designated Ministries represent only Diocese of London priests incardinated who serve in: Diocesan administration, hospital ministry, academic institutions, St. Peter's Seminary, Regina Mundi College, King's College, social service agencies, renewal centres, retreat house #3 The priest statistics do not include Diocese of London incardinated priests who are on leave of absences or serving in ministry outside the Diocese
#4 Permanent Deacons represent incardinated and non-incardinated permanent deacons assigned to parish ministry. This includes four (4) non-incardinated permanent deacons assigned to parish ministry #5 Parish Support Staff represent all full time and part-time business support, custodial support and housekeeping support employed in the diocese APPENDIX II
Pastoral Plan for the Diocese of London
mbracing a Future Full of Hope EA Pastoral Plan for the Diocese of London For surely I know the plans I have for you, says the Lord, plans for your welfare and not for harm, to give you a future with hope. (Jeremiah 29:11) Preamble: Called by Jesus through baptism into his passion, death and resurrection and anointed by the Spirit, we, the people of God in the Diocese of London, are to be living signs of Christ’s presence in the world today. United in Christ, the Bread of Life, we commit ourselves to carrying out the mission of proclaiming the coming of the kingdom of God in our time. We embrace the Gospel – believing what we read, preaching what we believe, and practicing what we preach. As a people of faith, trusting in the Spirit who leads us, we dedicate ourselves to the following goals; Goal I As living signs of Christ’s presence, we will respond to the call to personal holiness given to all by committing ourselves to opportunities for ongoing conversion and spiritual renewal. Goal II Called by Christ, we will evangelize through the clear proclamation of the Gospel and the constant teaching of the Catholic faith, assuring that such proclamation and teaching is linked to the life experience of the people. Goal III With our sights set on the mission of Jesus, we will minister with justice and compassion to the wounded, the searching, the entrapped and those in material and spiritual need. Goal IV As the Body of Christ, formed by word and sacrament, we will make provision for meaningful liturgical celebrations in our parish communities to ensure full, conscious and active participation by all. Goal V Inviting all to co-responsible ministry, we will encourage and support the ongoing formation of laity, religious and ordained. Goal VI Imitating Christ the servant-leader, we will employ and model governance practices at all levels that seek to: meet the needs of God’s people, support the Church’s mission, ensure appropriate participation in decision-making by the laity, religious and ordained, uphold Gospel stewardship, and promote accountability and transparency.
Promulgated at St. Peter’s Cathedral Basilica in London, Ontario on May 30, 2004, Most Rev. Ronald Fabbro, C.S.B. the Solemnity of Pentecost Bishop of London 1844-04/07 APPENDIX III
Letter From Bishop Fabbro and Synopsis of Report, for Inclusion in Parish Bulletins September 17-18, 2011
TRENDS IMPACTING PASTORAL & PERSONNEL PLANNING IN THE DIOCESE OF LONDON September 15, 2011
Dear sisters and brothers in Christ, Our people are aware of the pressing realities that our Church is facing. When I do pastoral visits, they have spoken to me Last fall, the diocese commissioned a report that would about the challenges they face and the need to make changes, present data, projections and analysis on the future so that our diocese can move forward with renewed hope. availability of parish priests, on Sunday Mass attendance, Tey know that it is well within our reach to and on demographic, sacramental, fnancial make these changes. and other personnel data. Mr. Fred Galloway, a planning consultant who assisted us in the Our Holy Father, Pope Benedict XVI, refers to past, prepared the report. Te brief synopsis the challenges that our Church is facing in the below will give you an overview of the report’s context of the new evangelization, that is, our fndings in a format which I hope is easy to mission to bring the Gospel to our world, to read and understand. Te full 65-page report is bear witness, by our words and actions, to Jesus’ available online at www.dol.ca. love for us. Te period of spiritual renewal which our diocese has begun, and programs Te report provides current trends and such as Arise Together in Christ, will better projections which speak to changes in society prepare us for this mission and enable us to and the ways people live out their faith in Most Rev. Ronald P. Fabbro, csb address the work before us. everyday life. I found this report hard to read. Bishop of London Many of us are saddened by the losses our What we need to do now is study the report Church has experienced in our own lifetime. carefully. Trough prayerful discernment, we will be able to I think it is important to emphasize, then, that the report develop sound pastoral strategies for the future. All of us – should not be a source of discouragement for us. It is a tool clergy and laity, young and old – need to be working together. that gives us solid data which can help us understand the In the weeks ahead, I will be turning to you and seeking your rapid changes we have witnessed. input and support. It is in this spirit, that I ask you to read the synopsis that follows.
TRENDS IN CANADIAN SOCIETY... Population from Africa, South America and the increasingly marginalized by younger Canada is experiencing an aging Middle and Far East, primarily non- generations who, as they age, will become population driven by the “Boomer” Catholic areas except for South America. the dominant population group. generation (about a third of all Canadians). Rural population is Technology Globalization decreasing in some areas up to 2% a year Technology growth involves For young people especially, the whole as the population ages and younger people communications, operations, delivery world is accessible, and their view of leave for post-secondary education and/ techniques, accountability, and many the world extends well beyond their or employment and farm consolidation other areas. Social media have become local communities. Tis much broader continues. Te birth rate in Canada increasingly important. Many people perspective impacts their values, has declined to the point that natural under 35 years of age do not read perception of what is important and population replacement is not achievable. newspapers or use landline telephones. understanding of where and how they Canada requires 250,000 to 300,000 new Tey rely on the internet using social belong. immigrants each year to sustain our networks such as Facebook, Twitter, population. Historically, new immigrants and apps to receive information and People’s Connection with the Church mostly came from northern and eastern to communicate. Organizations that Another emerging trend is the reduced Europe. Today, immigrants are arriving fail to respond to these trends will be afnity people have with traditional institutions, suppliers and others. Tis practiced quite separately from traditional recent years, many people have less is particularly evident among younger church structures. Te sexual abuse of time and willingness to volunteer on a generations. Tis decline in institutional children by priests has also led to a loss of long-term basis, given the hectic and afnity impacts most Christian churches trust in the moral authority of the Church. fragmented nature of modern life. Across given perceptions of reduced relevancy, Canadian society, increased scrutiny, new forms of communication, education, Volunteerism expectations and police checks associated changing societal values and globalization. Volunteerism has long been a cornerstone with volunteering impact people’s For many people, spirituality is seen and for services provided by parishes. In willingness to get involved.
TRENDS IN THE DIOCESE OF LONDON... Sacramental, Mass Attendance, Ontario. Based on approximately 450,000 priests, nearly half of whom would be Finance & Other Trends Catholics living in the Diocese of London, priests from outside North America. For more than 30 years, data has been average weekend Mass attendance is collected regarding Sacraments. For the around 14%. Tere are 120 parishes and Deacons Availability past three years, average weekend Mass Catholic communities in the diocese Te number of permanent deacons in the attendance counts have been taken at all in 2010 compared to 171 in 1975. Tis diocese has increased from two in 1995 parishes. reduction primarily results from parish to 38 in 2011. By 2021, 72 permanent reorganization over the last ten years. deacons are projected to be available. Te Sacramental data shows constantly Lay Ecclesial Ministers declining levels of participation. For Regarding parish fnances, since 1994 Te number of Lay Ecclesial Ministers most Sacraments, this began most the Sunday ofertory revenues have has increased from nine to 78 individuals evidently afer 1993. Some, but not all, increased 15.9%, which is slightly less than since 1980. Teir average age is 50 and of the reductions involve pre-school cumulative infation over the same period. nearly 80% are female. and school-age Sacraments (Baptism, Almost all of this growth occurred before First Communion and Confrmation) 2001. Parish Support Staf which can be associated with declining Since 1995, the Parish support staf have birth rates and student populations in Priests Available for Parish Ministry increased from 462 to 513 individuals. Catholic schools, particularly in rural Parish priest availability has also Catholic School Student Projections areas. Numbers of marriages show the been examined. Projections were frst Six Catholic school boards serve within most signifcant decline. Also funerals in completed in 1991. We now have new the diocese: Windsor-Essex, St. Clair, churches have declined 18% from 1975 projections based on signifcantly more London, Huron-Perth and Counseil to 2010, though burials in larger Catholic data regarding age, retirement and other Scolaire Ecoles des District des Ecoles cemeteries increased 200% for the same factors. catholique du Sud-Ouest. As well, a small period. In 1991, there were 178 priests available portion of Brant Haldimand Norfolk Sunday Mass attendance is lower as well. for parish ministry in the Diocese of Catholic District School Board lies in the Te reduction across the diocese over London. Currently 100 priests serve diocese. Te total Catholic school student the past three years was approximately in parishes. Taking into account population for the fve main boards in 3.5%, ranging from a slight increase in retirements, sabbaticals, new religious 2008-09 was 68,081. Tis is forecasted to the Ingersoll area to a 6% decline in Essex and international priests, and ordinations decrease by approximately 10% by 2013- County. Catholics represent about a third forecasted at about 1.7 diocesan priests 14. of the general population in southwestern per year, by 2025 there will be 73 parish
ANALYSIS... From a strategic perspective, at least two analytical outcomes emerge: If current trends and strategies continue, by 2025 there will be just one priest for every two or three parishes, and the average age of these priests would be older. The implications of these trends on how parishes are organized, led and supported in the future will need to be assessed. Less people are Catholic, and less people who self-identify as Catholic practice their faith by participating in the Sacraments. This downward trend in our diocese is infuenced by a wide range of factors, including declining birth rates, changing multicultural populations, societal infuences, loss of religious afnity, and changing faith practices etc. All of these factors must be taken into account in our pastoral and personnel planning. See the next page to read about how we are moving forward. MOVING FORWARD
Te above synopsis provides a brief glimpse of the wealth of information contained in the report. It is apparent that we cannot continue operating as we are now. We must make strategic changes that will best position our diocese for the future. We must start to plan for these changes immediately.
As I stated above, all of us need to be engaged in developing these strategic plans. In the months ahead, I will be seeking input from our people, especially our diocesan leaders. Te following meetings have already been scheduled: t October 2011: I will meet with the Episcopal Vicars and Directors, Deanery Chairs, Rector of St. Peter’s Seminary, Director of the Institute for Catholic Formation and diocesan leaders to design the process and time line for consultation and next steps. t November 2011: I will meet with all priests, deacons and lay ecclesial ministers. t Spring 2012: Tere will be various opportunities for input by the people of the diocese.
We have already begun to develop a personnel plan for priests, deacons and lay ecclesial ministers. Tis plan will address short-term, pressing needs, while holding a longer-term vision of how the diocese will provide for and support competent servant leaders who will respond faithfully and efectively to emerging pastoral needs in the future.
It is my hope that we can begin to enact changes in June 2012.
I am interested in your thoughts about the report and our plans. I invite you to send me an e-mail or letter, or to contact me through the diferent social media, including Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
Te challenges before us are huge. We need to be courageous in addressing them, so that we can more efectively carry on the mission of evangelization which Jesus has entrusted to us. It is my prayer that each of us will personally encounter him in our daily lives. Te experience of meeting him and of opening our hearts to him enables us to “embrace a future full of hope,” the central theme of our Diocesan Pastoral Plan.
Sincerely yours in Christ,
Most Rev. Ronald P. Fabbro, C.S.B. Bishop of London
1070 Waterloo Street London, ON N6A 3Y2 www.dol.ca | [email protected]
Tis is a synopsis of the Pastoral and Personnel Planning Statistical Projections & Analysis Report, prepared in September 2011 by F.J. Galloway Associates Inc. Te full report is available at www.dol.ca.