Time Arbitrage

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Time Arbitrage www.cir.finance What is the concept of arbitrage? Arbitrage is most vaguely defined as an opportunistic mispricing in the markets. The concept of arbitrage can be applied in a lot of ways, but the one we are focusing on right now is time arbitrage. What is time arbitrage? Time arbitrage represents the opportunity that arises when short-term trading in the markets presents the opportunity to buy a stock at a discount. This most often happens around earnings season because this is when companies report on the last quarter’s (the previous 3 months) performance. Short-term traders often pay a disproportionate amount of attention to negative short-term developments, particularly if they were unexpected, even when the long-term prospects haven’t changed in any significant manner. The short-term traders sell their shares, and that puts downward pressure on the price of the stock. Why should you care? Time arbitrage represents an opportunity to buy a stock with great long-term prospects at a discount due to short-term traders causing the price to fall. Time arbitrage is a value investor’s best friend. It’s like a one-day sale on one of your favorite brands. You get the opportunity to purchase a lot of value at a lower price thanks to the irrational trading of short-term traders. Finding these opportunities can be highly profitable. One of the recommendations we gave some early adopters of our service actually recently gave everyone a GREAT opportunity to buy a great company at a discount. Short-term expectations www.cir.finance Time Arbitrage www.cir.finance weren’t met, but the long-term future of the company is super bright. It’s a classic time arbitrage opportunity. How can you find these opportunities? Finding these opportunities can be a little tricky. It’s an absolute must to be able to discern between short-term missed expectations and a long-term problem coming to light. Sometimes, a sell-off is warranted because the company’s fundamentals have truly broken down. How can you discern between an opportunity and an impending disaster? You need to know the company (or have someone else know it for you). You need to know the long-term strategy of the company, and you need to know if they are still on track to carry out the strategy successfully. You need to know if the short-term bad news is a fundamental flaw or if it’s a minor hiccup. You need to know if the financials are still in great shape. In short, you just need to understand the company enough to see through the noise and make an objective decision. Concluding thoughts. Time arbitrage is a phenomenal opportunity to make money from the irrationality of short-term traders. Earnings season is a great time of the year to find time arbitrage opportunities. If you take advantage of these opportunities when they present themselves, it’s highly likely you will be a successful investor! Buying great companies at a discount is the best way to invest intelligently, and time arbitrage creates ample stock price discounts. This document is for educational purposes. www.cir.finance .

Copy Link

Recommended publications

Arbitrage Pricing Theory∗
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY∗ Gur Huberman Zhenyu Wang† August 15, 2005 Abstract Focusing on asset returns governed by a factor structure, the APT is a one-period model, in which preclusion of arbitrage over static portfolios of these assets leads to a linear relation between the expected return and its covariance with the factors. The APT, however, does not preclude arbitrage over dynamic portfolios. Consequently, applying the model to evaluate managed portfolios contradicts the no-arbitrage spirit of the model. An empirical test of the APT entails a procedure to identify features of the underlying factor structure rather than merely a collection of mean-variance efficient factor portfolios that satisfies the linear relation. Keywords: arbitrage; asset pricing model; factor model. ∗S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, forthcoming, Palgrave Macmillan, reproduced with permission of Palgrave Macmillan. This article is taken from the authors’ original manuscript and has not been reviewed or edited. The definitive published version of this extract may be found in the complete The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics in print and online, forthcoming. †Huberman is at Columbia University. Wang is at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the McCombs School of Business in the University of Texas at Austin. The views stated here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Introduction The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) was developed primarily by Ross (1976a, 1976b). It is a one-period model in which every investor believes that the stochastic properties of returns of capital assets are consistent with a factor structure.
[Show full text]
Arbitrage and Price Revelation with Asymmetric Information And
Journal of Mathematical Economics 38 (2002) 393–410 Arbitrage and price revelation with asymmetric information and incomplete markets Bernard Cornet a,∗, Lionel De Boisdeffre a,b a CERMSEM, Université de Paris 1, 106–112 boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13, France b Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK Received 5 January 2002; received in revised form 7 September 2002; accepted 10 September 2002 Abstract This paper deals with the issue of arbitrage with differential information and incomplete financial markets, with a focus on information that no-arbitrage asset prices can reveal. Time and uncertainty are represented by two periods and a finite set S of states of nature, one of which will prevail at the second period. Agents may operate limited financial transfers across periods and states via finitely many nominal assets. Each agent i has a private information about which state will prevail at the second period; this information is represented by a subset Si of S. Agents receive no wrong information in the sense that the “true state” belongs to the “pooled information” set ∩iSi, hence assumed to be non-empty. Our analysis is two-fold. We first extend the classical symmetric information analysis to the asym- metric setting, via a concept of no-arbitrage price. Second, we study how such no-arbitrage prices convey information to agents in a decentralized way. The main difference between the symmetric and the asymmetric settings stems from the fact that a classical no-arbitrage asset price (common to every agent) always exists in the first case, but no longer in the asymmetric one, thus allowing arbitrage opportunities.
[Show full text]
Why Convertible Arbitrage Makes Sense in 2021
For UBS marketing purposes Convertible arbitrage as a hedge fund strategy should continue to work well in 2021. (Keystone) Investment strategies Why convertible arbitrage makes sense in 2021 19 January 2021, 8:52 pm CET, written by UBS Editorial Team The current market environment is conducive for convertible arbitrage hedge funds with elevated new issuance, attractive equity volatility levels and convertible valuations all likely to support performance in 2021. Investors should consider allocating to the strategy within a diversified hedge fund portfolio. The global coronavirus pandemic resulted in significant equity market drawdowns in March last year, followed by an almost unparalleled recovery over the next few months. On balance, 2020 was a good year for hedge funds focusing on convertible arbitrage strategies which returned 12.1% for the year, according to HFR data. We believe that all drivers remain in place for a solid performance in 2021. And while current market conditions resemble those after the great financial crisis, convertible arbitrage today is a far less crowded strategy with more moderate leverage levels. The market structure is also more balanced between hedge funds and long only funds, and has after a long period of outflows, recently witnessed renewed investor interest. So we believe there are a number of reasons why convertible arbitrage remains attractive for investors in 2021 based on the following assumptions: Convertible arbitrage traditionally performs well in recovery phases. Historically, convertible arbitrage funds have generated their best returns during periods of economic recovery and expansion. Improving risk sentiment, tightening credit spreads, and attractively priced new issues are key contributors to returns in such periods.
[Show full text]
Hedge Fund Returns: a Study of Convertible Arbitrage
Hedge Fund Returns: A Study of Convertible Arbitrage by Chris Yurek An honors thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science Undergraduate College Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University May 2005 Professor Marti G. Subrahmanyam Professor Lasse Pedersen Faculty Adviser Thesis Advisor Table of Contents I Introductions…………………………………………………………….3 Related Research………………………………………………………………4 Convertible Arbitrage Returns……………………………………………....4 II. Background: Hedge Funds………………………………………….5 Backfill Bias…………………………………………………………………….7 End-of-Life Reporting Bias…………………………………………………..8 Survivorship Bias……………………………………………………………...9 Smoothing………………………………………………………………………9 III Background: Convertible Arbitrage……………………………….9 Past Performance……………………………………………………………...9 Strategy Overview……………………………………………………………10 IV Implementing a Convertible Arbitrage Strategy……………….12 Creating the Hedge…………………………………………………………..12 Implementation with No Trading Rule……………………………………13 Implementation with a Trading Rule……………………………………...14 Creating a Realistic Trade………………………………….……………....15 Constructing a Portfolio…………………………………………………….16 Data……………………………………………………………………………..16 Bond and Stock Data………………………………………………………………..16 Hedge Fund Databases……………………………………………………………..17 V Convertible Arbitrage: Risk and Return…………………….…...17 Effectiveness of the Hedge………………………………………………...17 Success of the Trading Rule……………………………………………….20 Portfolio Risk and Return…………………………………………………..22 Hedge Fund Database Returns……………………………………………23 VI
[Show full text]
Arbitraging the Basel Securitization Framework: Evidence from German ABS Investment Matthias Efing (Swiss Finance Institute and University of Geneva)
Discussion Paper Deutsche Bundesbank No 40/2015 Arbitraging the Basel securitization framework: evidence from German ABS investment Matthias Efing (Swiss Finance Institute and University of Geneva) Discussion Papers represent the authors‘ personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank or its staff. Editorial Board: Daniel Foos Thomas Kick Jochen Mankart Christoph Memmel Panagiota Tzamourani Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt am Main Tel +49 69 9566-0 Please address all orders in writing to: Deutsche Bundesbank, Press and Public Relations Division, at the above address or via fax +49 69 9566-3077 Internet http://www.bundesbank.de Reproduction permitted only if source is stated. ISBN 978–3–95729–207–0 (Printversion) ISBN 978–3–95729–208–7 (Internetversion) Non-technical summary Research Question The 2007-2009 financial crisis has raised fundamental questions about the effectiveness of the Basel II Securitization Framework, which regulates bank investments into asset-backed securities (ABS). The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision(2014) has identified \mechanic reliance on external ratings" and “insufficient risk sensitivity" as two major weaknesses of the framework. Yet, the full extent to which banks actually exploit these shortcomings and evade regulatory capital requirements is not known. This paper analyzes the scope of risk weight arbitrage under the Basel II Securitization Framework. Contribution A lack of data on the individual asset holdings of institutional investors has so far pre- vented the analysis of the demand-side of the ABS market. I overcome this obstacle using the Securities Holdings Statistics of the Deutsche Bundesbank, which records the on-balance sheet holdings of banks in Germany on a security-by-security basis.
[Show full text]
Multi-Strategy Arbitrage Hedge Fund Qualified Investor Hedge Fund Fact Sheet As at 31 May 2021
CORONATION MULTI-STRATEGY ARBITRAGE HEDGE FUND QUALIFIED INVESTOR HEDGE FUND FACT SHEET AS AT 31 MAY 2021 INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE GENERAL INFORMATION The Coronation Multi-Strategy Arbitrage Hedge Fund makes use of arbitrage Investment Structure Limited liability en commandite partnership strategies in the pursuit of attractive risk-adjusted returns, independent of general Disclosed Partner Coronation Management Company (RF) (Pty) Ltd market direction. The fund is expected to have low volatility with a very low correlation to equity markets. Stock-picking is based on fundamental in-house research. Factor- Inception Date 01 July 2003 based and statistical arbitrage models are used solely for screening purposes. Active Hedge Fund CIS launch date 01 October 2017 use of derivatives is applied to reduce risk and implement views efficiently. The risk Year End 30 September profile of the fund is expected to be low due to its low net equity exposure and focus on arbitrage-related strategies. The portfolio is well positioned to take advantage of Fund Category South African Multi-Strategy Hedge Fund low probability/high payout events and will thus generally be long volatility through Target Return Cash + 5% the options market. The fund’s target return is cash plus 5%. The objective is to achieve Performance Fee Hurdle Rate Cash + high-water mark this return with low risk, providing attractive risk-adjusted returns through a low fund standard deviation. Annual Management Fee 1% (excl. VAT) Annual Outperformance Fee 15% (excl. VAT) of returns above cash, capped at 3% Total Expense Ratio (TER)† 1.38% INVESTMENT PARAMETERS Transaction Costs (TC)† 1.42% ‡ Net exposure is capped at 30%, of which 15% represents true directional exposure in Fund Size (R'Millions) R303.47 the alpha strategy.
[Show full text]
15.450 Lecture 1, Arbitrage-Free Pricing Models
Introduction Arbitrage and SPD Factor Pricing Models Risk-Neutral Pricing Option Pricing Futures Arbitrage-Free Pricing Models Leonid Kogan MIT, Sloan 15.450, Fall 2010 �c Leonid Kogan ( MIT, Sloan ) Arbitrage-Free Pricing Models 15.450, Fall 2010 1 / 48 Introduction Arbitrage and SPD Factor Pricing Models Risk-Neutral Pricing Option Pricing Futures Outline 1 Introduction 2 Arbitrage and SPD 3 Factor Pricing Models 4 Risk-Neutral Pricing 5 Option Pricing 6 Futures �c Leonid Kogan ( MIT, Sloan ) Arbitrage-Free Pricing Models 15.450, Fall 2010 2 / 48 Introduction Arbitrage and SPD Factor Pricing Models Risk-Neutral Pricing Option Pricing Futures Option Pricing by Replication The original approach to option pricing, going back to Black, Scholes, and Merton, is to use a replication argument together with the Law of One Price. Consider a binomial model for the stock price � �� PPP �H HH �� H HH Payoff of any option on the stock can be replicated by dynamic trading in the stock and the bond, thus there is a unique arbitrage-free option valuation. Problem solved? �c Leonid Kogan ( MIT, Sloan ) Arbitrage-Free Pricing Models 15.450, Fall 2010 4 / 48 Introduction Arbitrage and SPD Factor Pricing Models Risk-Neutral Pricing Option Pricing Futures Drawbacks of the Binomial Model The binomial model (and its variants) has a few issues. If the binomial depiction of market dynamics was accurate, all options would be redundant instruments. Is that realistic? Empirically, the model has problems: one should be able to replicate option payoffs perfectly in theory, that does not happen in reality. Why build models like the binomial model? Convenience.
[Show full text]
Gradual Arbitrage∗
Gradual Arbitrage¤ Martin Oehmkey Columbia University This version: February 1, 2009 Abstract Capital often ﬂows slowly from one market to another in response to buying oppor- tunities. I provide an explanation for this phenomenon by considering arbitrage across two segmented markets when arbitrageurs face illiquidity frictions in the form of price impact costs. I show that illiquidity results in gradual arbitrage: mispricings are generally corrected slowly over time rather than instantaneously. The speed of arbitrage is decreas- ing in price impact costs and increasing in the level of competition among arbitrageurs. This means arbitrage is slower in more illiquid markets for two reasons: First, there is a direct e®ect, as illiquidity a®ects the equilibrium trading strategies for a given level of competition among arbitrageurs (strategic e®ect). Second, in equilibrium fewer arbi- trageurs stand ready to trade between illiquid markets, further slowing down the speed of arbitrage (competition e®ect). Jointly, these two e®ects may help explain the observed cross-sectional variation of arbitrage speeds across di®erent asset classes. Keywords: Illiquidity, Limits to Arbitrage, Strategic Trading, Strategic Arbitrage, Im- perfect Competition ¤I thank Markus Brunnermeier, Jos¶eScheinkman and Hyun Shin for helpful conversations. I also thank Zhiguo He, Konstantin Milbradt and seminar participants at the Princeton Finance Lunch Workshop for comments. yColumbia Business School, 3022 Broadway, 420 Uris Hall, New York, NY 10027, e-mail: [email protected], http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/moehmke There is now a large body of empirical evidence showing that capital ﬂows only slowly between markets to exploit buying opportunities.
[Show full text]
Hedge Funds Are Simply Long Grass May Well Not Be Greener
HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES FOR INDIVIDUal INVESTORS A Starting Point for Discussions with Your Financial Advisor by Thomas Collimore, CFA, Director, Investor Education As individual investors, many of us think we’re missing out when the offsetting risks (e.g., a common stock and a put option; bonds and media report impressive hedge fund returns. The reality is that the commodities). Today, many so-called hedge funds are simply long grass may well not be greener. assets and in no sense are hedged. Hedge funds are limited to institutional and high-net-worth Hedged mutual funds are a relatively new category of investment (“accredited”) investors because the risks associated with these vehicle. They are less restricted than traditional mutual funds: They investments are inappropriate for many of us. Hedge funds operate can sell stocks short, invest in illiquid securities, use derivatives in with limited regulatory oversight, usually have very high investment certain situations, and leverage of up to one-third of the fund’s total requirements, and may limit your ability to withdraw funds. They assets. They must provide investors with such disclosures as daily also often impose high management fees, including a share of liquidity reports and semi-annual audited reports. There are also investment profits as well as a percentage of managed assets. limits on the amount of leverage they can use, and the fund must have an independent board of directors and custodian. If your heart is set on a hedge fund strategy, not all hope is lost. Several classes of retail mutual funds use hedge fund–like investment styles but offer better transparency, lower costs, and EQUITY Long–SHORT superior regulatory protection.
[Show full text]
Cross Listed Stocks and Arbitrage Opportunities
We are all looking for opportunities when we invest, sometimes they are sitting right in front of us and we don’t realize!! One such opportunity is Arbitrage and while there are many arbitrageurs who are quite familiar with such activities, I believe that there is a large percentage of the population who may not be so versed with the term. Thus, I will try to shed some light in this area of finance. In its purest form, Arbitrage is the process of earning riskless profits by taking advantage of differential pricing for the same physical asset or security. How does this happen? Well, there are many ways in which this can occur, but due to word limits I will give a general synopsis of three of the most common forms of Arbitrage: Market Arbitrage; Merger Arbitrage and Triangular Arbitrage. However, before I start I would like to note that the definition above is as stated “ in the purest form”- in the real world there is always some risk but it may be less or more depending on other factors, such as: timing, availability of information and transaction costs. Market Arbitrage This involves the purchasing and selling of the same security at the same time in different markets to take advantage of a price difference between the two separate markets. This can only occur when a security is cross listed, that is, the security trades on more than one exchange. Currently, there are thirteen securities on the local exchange which are cross listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), the Barbados Stock Exchange (BSE) or both.
[Show full text]
The Impact of Algorithmic Trading in a Simulated Asset Market
Journal of Risk and Financial Management Article The Impact of Algorithmic Trading in a Simulated Asset Market Purba Mukerji 1,* , Christine Chung 2, Timothy Walsh 2 and Bo Xiong 2 1 Department of Economics, Connecticut College, New London, CT 06320, USA 2 Department of Computer Science, Connecticut College, New London, CT 06320, USA; [email protected] (C.C.); [email protected] (T.W.); [email protected] (B.X.) * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 13 March 2019; Accepted: 17 April 2019; Published: 20 April 2019 Abstract: In this work we simulate algorithmic trading (AT) in asset markets to clarify its impact. Our markets consist of human and algorithmic counterparts of traders that trade based on technical and fundamental analysis, and statistical arbitrage strategies. Our specific contributions are: (1) directly analyze AT behavior to connect AT trading strategies to specific outcomes in the market; (2) measure the impact of AT on market quality; and (3) test the sensitivity of our findings to variations in market conditions and possible future events of interest. Examples of such variations and future events are the level of market uncertainty and the degree of algorithmic versus human trading. Our results show that liquidity increases initially as AT rises to about 10% share of the market; beyond this point, liquidity increases only marginally. Statistical arbitrage appears to lead to significant deviation from fundamentals. Our results can facilitate market oversight and provide hypotheses for future empirical work charting the path for developing countries where AT is still at a nascent stage. Keywords: algorithmic trading; market quality; liquidity; statistical arbitrage 1.
[Show full text]
Title ARBITRAGE, HEDGING, SPECULATION and the PRICING of CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS Sub Title Author MOOSA, Imad A
Title ARBITRAGE, HEDGING, SPECULATION AND THE PRICING OF CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS Sub Title Author MOOSA, Imad A. Publisher Keio Economic Society, Keio University Publication year 2000 Jtitle Keio economic studies Vol.37, No.1 (2000. ) ,p.53- 61 Abstract A model is presented to explain the determination of commodity futures prices in terms of the activities of arbitrageurs and speculators. The model is tested for various maturities using the WTI crude oil as a representative commodity. The results show that the futures price is determined by the activities of arbitrageurs and futures (not spot) speculators. Notes Note Genre Journal Article URL https://koara.lib.keio.ac.jp/xoonips/modules/xoonips/detail.php?koara_id=AA00260492-2000000 1-0053 慶應義塾大学学術情報リポジトリ(KOARA)に掲載されているコンテンツの著作権は、それぞれの著作者、学会または出版社/発行者に帰属し、その権利は著作権法によって保護されています。引用にあたっては、著作権法を遵守してご利用ください。 The copyrights of content available on the KeiO Associated Repository of Academic resources (KOARA) belong to the respective authors, academic societies, or publishers/issuers, and these rights are protected by the Japanese Copyright Act. When quoting the content, please follow the Japanese copyright act. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) KEIO ECONOMIC STUDIES 37(1), 53-61 (2000) ARBITRAGE, HEDGING, SPECULATION AND THE PRICING OF CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS* Imad A. MoosA Department of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Australia First version received October 1999; final version accepted May 2000 Abstract: A model is presented to explain the determination of commodity futures prices in terms of the activities of arbitrageurs and speculators. The model is tested for various maturities using the WTI crude oil as a representative commodity. The results show that the futures price is determined by the activities of arbitrageurs and futures (not spot) speculators.
[Show full text]