Systems, Social Order, and the Global Debt Crisis
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University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 8-2010 Systems, Social Order, and the Global Debt Crisis John Hamilton Bradford [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Part of the Work, Economy and Organizations Commons Recommended Citation Bradford, John Hamilton, "Systems, Social Order, and the Global Debt Crisis. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2010. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/778 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by John Hamilton Bradford entitled "Systems, Social Order, and the Global Debt Crisis." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Sociology. Harry F. Dahms, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Steven P. Dandaneau, R. Scott Frey, Allen Dunn Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by John Hamilton Bradford entitled “Systems, Social Order, and the Global Debt Crisis.” I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy with a major in Sociology. Harry F. Dahms, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: R. Scott Frey Steven P. Dandaneau Allen Dunn Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official student records.) SYSTEMS, SOCIAL ORDER, AND THE GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville John Hamilton Bradford August 2010 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I‟d like to thank Dr. Harry F. Dahms for his support, guidance, and encouragement on this project. He has exhibited open-ended patience, enabling me to conduct research without prejudging its direction and/or conclusions. I‟d also like to thank the committee members, Dr. Steven Dandaneau, Dr. R. Scott Frey, and Dr. Allen Dunn, each of whom made vital suggestions for the final draft of this dissertation. In particular, Steve Dandaneau‟s frank and direct line of questioning elicited for the first time a summary statement of what caused the global debt crisis. Scott Frey reminded me of the centrality of the natural environment in explanations of social phenomena. Allen Dunn provided invaluable editing advice as well as thought-provoking commentary pertaining to the relationships between Luhmann, Habermas, and systems theory. Finally, I‟d like to thank those professors who were originally on my committee but had to withdraw due to unexpected medical, family, and professional reasons. Dr. Robert Gorman, Dr. Stephanie Bohon, and Dr. Robert Jones have provided professional and personal guidance and support throughout my tenure as a graduate student at the University of Tennessee. ii ABSTRACT Part I examines the global rise of both public and private debt and its recent manifestations in the US housing bubble and the financial panic of 2007-8. A review of the most popular theories of the debt crisis is provided, including an explication of securitized banking and economic theory. The underlying condition of increasing ecological and energetic scarcity is accorded central significance in the broad trajectory of world growth and debt, Part II explicates systems theories of social order and the social significance of markets. The theories of Niklas Luhmann, Talcott Parsons, Mario Bunge, Anthony Giddens, and Jürgen Habermas are evaluated with respect to their theories of social order and crisis. A central finding is that, although declining rates of exergy production inhibit the global economic recovery as measured by conventional economic tools, this fact is not likely to be widely recognized. A central theme of Part II is how social systems handle uncertainty, risk, and to what extent complex social systems can be regulated normatively by the public sphere. As global society becomes increasingly interconnected and dependent upon the depletion of material and energy resources, the communication channels that facilitate the self-understanding of modern society at the same time proliferate, becoming increasingly disconnected and self-referential. Luhmann‟s systems theory is used to explain why collective recognition and action is at once rendered more necessary and increasingly unlikely given the complexity of global society that Earth‟s terrestrial stock of nonrenewable energy resources has engendered. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 Explaining the Global Debt Crisis................................................................................ 1 PART I. THE GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS ..................................................................... 6 I. THE HOUSING BUBBLE, FINANCE, AND THE RISE OF DEBT .......................... 7 1. The US Housing Bubble ...................................................................................... 7 The Boom: 1997-2005 ............................................................................................ 7 The Bust: 2006-2008 ............................................................................................ 12 2. Debt and the Rise of Finance ............................................................................. 15 3. The Global Debt Crisis ...................................................................................... 23 II. A FAILURE OF POLITICS OR ECONOMICS? ..................................................... 30 A failure of politics? .................................................................................................. 30 Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae .................................................................. 30 Community Reinvestment Act ............................................................................... 31 Ratings Agencies and the Basel Accords................................................................ 31 A failure of economics? ............................................................................................. 32 The Repeal of Glass-Steagall ................................................................................. 33 Credit Default Swaps and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 ...... 34 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 36 III. THE SYSTEM OF BANKING AND FINANCE ............................................... 37 A Primer on Banking ................................................................................................. 37 Interest rates and the time value of money ................................................................. 38 Leverage: another word for Debt .............................................................................. 39 US Banking Prior to Federal Deposit Insurance ......................................................... 42 The Originate and Distribute Model of Banking ........................................................ 43 The ODM revised ...................................................................................................... 44 Securitized Banking, or, the "Shadow Banking System" ............................................ 46 Repos and short term borrowing ................................................................................ 47 Haircuts and Rehypothecation ................................................................................... 48 Reinforcing Feedback loops: How Loss Spirals Happen ........................................... 52 Financial Panic: perceived counterparty risk and the repo markets ................................ 55 The LIBOR, LIBOR-OIS, and LIBOR-Repo spreads ................................................. 56 Comments ................................................................................................................. 57 Central Banks and Fiat Currency ................................................................................... 60 International Banking and the Bretton Woods Regime ............................................... 63 The Federal Reserve in the current crisis ................................................................... 64 Comments ................................................................................................................. 66 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 66 IV. MAINSTREAM ECONOMIC THEORIES AND EXPLANATIONS OF THE CRISIS .......................................................................................................................... 67