Alphanumeric and Graphic CRT Terminals
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\ ALPHANUMERIC AND GRAPHIC CRT TERMINALS 1975 - 1980 VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION One Washington Street Wellesley, Massachusetts 02181 Study Team: Lewis I. Solomon Steven E. Smylie Edward A. Ross @ Copyright, November 1975 by Venture Development Corporation All Rights Reserved VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION REPORT STUDY TEAM LEWIS I. SOLOMON, Lewis 1. Solomon is the founder of President Venture Development Corporation. He has held positions in the management of semiconductor and computer research and development. He received his BEE in 1959 from Rensselaer Poly technic Institute, his MEE from The Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn, and his MBA from the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. STEVEN E. SMYLIE, Steven E. Smylie joined Venture Consultant Development in 1975. Prior to joining the company he was an electroniy engineer specialiZing in the design of computer systems at RCA in Van Nuys, California. He holds a BS degree I cum laude in Engineering from the Univer sity of California - Los Angeles, and an MBA from the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. Mr. Smylie is a member of Tau Beta Pi. EDWARD A. ROSS, Edward A. Ross was President and Senior Consultant founder of both Ross Controls Corpora tion, and Trump-Ross Industrial Controls. He has held positions in sales management, and was Manager of Marketing Research at Raytheon's Industrial Components Division. He received his BS degree from the City College of New York in 1944, perform ed graduate work in marketing at Columbia University, and received his MBA from Northeastern University in 1964. VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 9 HISTORY OF THE CRT TERMINAL INDUSTRY 13 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 18 Defini tion of a Terminal 18 Interactive Terminals 19 Teleprinter Terminals 20 CRT Terminals 23 POS/Intelligent/Special Purpose Terminals 23 CRT Terminal Classifications 24 Installed Base of Alphanumeric CRT Terminals 27 IBM 2260 and Compatibles 30 IBM 3270 and Compatibles 31 Other Mainframe Manufacturers 32 Teleprinter Replacements 32 Teletype Model 40 33 Independent Systems 33 I 1974 Shipments of Alphanumeric CRT Terminals 34 IBM 2260 and Compatibles 34 IBM 3270 and Compatibles 34 Other Mainframe Manufacturers 37 Teleprinter Replacements 37 Teletype Model 40 38 Independent Systems 38 Market Share Distributions of Alphanumeric CRT Terminals 39 IBM 2260 and Compatibles 39 IBM 3270 and Compatibles 41 Other Mainframe Manufacturers 42 Teleprinter Replacements 43 Teletype Model 40 43 Independent Systems 4S VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Page Segmentation of Installed Base of Alphanumeric CRT Terminals by System Type 46 Stand Alone/Clustered Terminai"s 46 Clustered Terminal Sizes 47 Local/Remote Terminals 51 Minicomputer/Microprocessor Based Terminals 54 Graphic CRT Terminals 58 Price/Performance Graphic CRT Terminal Segments 61 Low Priced Segment 64 Medium Priced Segment 65 High Priced Segment 67 Cost Components of Graphic CRT Terminals 69 CRT Terminal Users 71 Average Number of Terminals Per User 73 CRT TERMINAL TECHNOLOGY 76 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Technology 77 CRT Display Monitor 79 Operation of a CRT Monitor 80 Phosphors 80 Flicker 81 Brightness 82 Video Linearity 83 Screen Sizes 83 Market Share by Screen Size 85 Character Sizes 87 CRT Monitor Standards 87 CRT Control Unit 88 Character Dot Matrix 88 Character Generator 90 Size of Character Set 90 Number of Characters Per Display 91 Number of Characters Per Row 93 Number of Rows Per Display 93 RefreSh Memory 97 Cursor Representation and Control 97 Special Video Options 99 CRT Control Unit Standards 99 VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Page Keyboards 100 Typewriter Keyboards 100 Numeric Keyboards 101 Special Function Keyboards 101 M icroproce s sor/Hard - Wired Con troller 102 Controller Technology 103 Intelligence Level 104 Future Role of Microprocessors 105 Communications Line Interface 106 Data Communication Hardware 107 Communica tions Con troller 107 Modems 108 Acoustic Couplers 109 EIA RS 232 Interface Standards 110 Data Transmission Techniques 110 Simplex/Half Duplex/Full Duplex 110 Asynchronous Data Transmission 111 Synchronous Data Transmission 112 Character Transmission Codes 113 Transmission Line Characters 113 Digital Transmission Lines 114 Line Control Procedures 115 Error Detection/Correction 116 M ul ti -Terminal Configura tions· 117 Printers 118 Impact Printers 118 Non-Impact Printers 119 Other Terminal Peripherals 120 Graphic CRT Terminal Technology 121 Graphic CRT Display Operation 121 Storage Tube Displays 122 Random Scan Displays 123 Raster Scan Display 124 Hard ware/Software Tradeoffs 125 ALTERNATE DISPLAY TECHNOLOGIES 127 Light Emitting Diodes 128 Liquid Crystals 129 VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Page Gas Panel Displays 130 IBM 3760/3790 Terminal 130 Burroughs Self-Scan Panel Display 131 Owens -Illinois DigivuePlasma Panel 131 Color CRT Di s pIa ys 132 Tradeoffs of CRT/Alternate Display Techniques 133 Future of Alternate Display Technologies 134 CRT TERMINAL MARKETS 136 Market Factors 136 Computer Shipments 138 Minicomputer Shipments 138 Data Communications Line Volume 138 Time-Sharing Volume 139 CRT Terminal Price Trends 140 AT&T Data Communication Plicies 145 Future IBM Terminal Lines 146 CRT Terminal Shipments 147 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Shipments 151 IBM 2260 and Compatibles 156 IBM 3270 and Compatibles 156 Other Mainframe Manufacturers 157 Independen t Sys terns 158 Teletype Model 40 158 Teleprinter Replacements 158 World Markets for Alphanumeric CRT Terminals 161 Japan Europe 161 Graphic CRT Terminal Shipments 163 Low Priced Segment 166 Medium Priced Segment 170 High Priced Segment 171 Wor'ld Markets for Graphic CRT Terminals 174 VENTUIH:. DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Page TERMINAL APPLICATIONS AND USAGE 177 Applications by Industry Segment 178 High Growth Industry Segments 178 Stable Industry Segments 180 Declining Industry Segments 180 Terminal Usage Classifications 181 Microprocessor Based Terminals 181 Local/Remote Terminals 183 Stand Alone/Clustered Terminals 183 Future Trends In Terminal Usage 186 USER DECISION CRITERIA 187 Cost/Performance Evaluation of Hardware 187 Analysis of the Terminal Manufacturer 189 COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES 192 IBM Competitive Strategy 192 AT&T Competitive Strategies 196 Other Mainframe Manufacturers 197 Replacements for IBM/AT&T Terminals 198 Independent Systems 199 BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES 200 IBM 3270 Replacement Market 201 Teletype Model 40 Replacement Market 202 VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION LIST OF EXHIBITS Figure Numbers TIT. L E 1 Installed Base of Interactive Terminals (% of Units) 21 2 Installed Base of Interactive Terminals (% of Dollars) 22 3 Installed Base of Graphic/Alphanumeric CRT Terminals (% of Units) 25 4 Installed Base of Graphic/Alphanumeric CRT Terminals (% of Dollars) 26 5 Installed Base of Alphanumeric CRT Terminals (% of Units) 28 6 Installed Base of Alphanumeric CRT Terminals (% of Dollars) 29 7 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Sales (% of Units) 35 8 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Sales (% of Dollars) 36 9 M"arket Share Distribution of IBM 2260 and Compatibles 40 10 Market Share Distribution of IBM 3270 a nd Com pa tible s 41 11 Market Share Distribution of Other Mainframe Manufacturers 42 12 Market Share Distribution of Teleprinter Replacements 44 13 Market Share Distribution of Independent Systems 45 14 Installed Base of Stand Alone/Clustered Terminals (% of Units) 48 15 Installed Base of Stand Alone/Clustered Terminals Without Teleprinter Replacements (% of Units) 49 16 Clustered Terminal Sizes (% of Units) 50 17 Local/Remote Terminal Installations (% of Units) 52 18 Local/Remote Terminal Shipments (% of Units) 53 VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Figure Numbers TITLE Page 19 Minicomputer/Microprocessor Based CRT Terminal Installations (% of Units) 56 20 Mincomputer/Microprocessor Based CRT Terminal Shipments (% of Units) 57 21 Installed Base of Graphic Display Terminals (% of Units) 59 22 Installed Base of Graphic Display Terminals (% of Dollars) 60 23 Graphic CRT Sales (% of Units) 62 24 Graphic CRT Sales (% of Dollars) 63 25 Graphic CRT Terminal Market Share Distrib\ltions - Low Priced Segments 65 26 Graphic CRT Terminal Market Share Distributions - Medium Priced Segments 66 27 Graphic CRT Terminal Market Share Distributions - High Priced Segments 68 28 CRT Terminal User Distribution (% of Units) 72 29 Number of CRT Terminal Installations Per User 74 30 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Block Diagram 78 31 Typical Dimensions for a 12" CRT Display 84 32 Share of Installed Base by CRT Display Screen Size (% of Units) 86 33 Share of Installed Base by Character Dot Ma trix (% of Uni ts) 89 34 Share of Installed Base by Size of Character Set (% of Units) 92 35 Share of Installed Base by Number of Characters Per Display (% of Units) 94 36 Share of Installed Base by Number of Characters Per Row (% of Units) 95 37 Share of Installed Base by Number of Rows Per Display (% of Units) 96 38 Indexed Factors Mfecting CRT Terminal Sales 137 39 CRT Terminal Price Index 142 40 Average Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Prices 143 41 Average Graphic CRT Terminal Prices 144 42 Total CRT Terminal Shipments (Millions of Dollars) 148 VENTURE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Figure Numbers TITLE Page 43 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Shipments (Millions of Dollars) 149 44 Graphic CRT Terminal Shipments (M illions of Dollars) 150 45 Total Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Shipments (Thousands of Units) 152 46 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Shipments (Thousands of Units) 153 47 Alphanumeric CRT Terminal Shipments (% of Units) 154