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U.S. Alliances and Emerging Partnerships in Southeast Asia U.S U.S. Alliances and Emerging Partnerships in Southeast Asia in Southeast Partnerships and Emerging Alliances U.S. U.S. Alliances and Emerging Partnerships in Southeast Asia CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Out of the Shadows CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A Report of the CSIS Southeast Asia Initiative 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org July 2009 ISBN 978-0-89206-584-4 CSIS CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Ë|xHSKITCy065844zv*:+:!:+:! CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES U.S. Alliances and Emerging Partnerships in Southeast Asia Out of the Shadows A Report of the CSIS Southeast Asia Initiative July 2009 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, DC. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Cover photo credits: Top: Panoramic view of Banaue Rice Terraces in the Philippines, source: http://en.wikipedia.org. Bottom left: Secretary Clinton with members of Menteng Elementary School 1 Children's Choir waving to the crowd in Jakarta, Indonesia, State Department photo, February 18, 2009. Bottom right: U.S. Department of Defense, source: http://www.defenselink.mil. © 2009 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data CIP information available on request. ISBN 978-0-89206-584-4 Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org y contents Acknowledgments iv Executive Summary vi 1. Introduction 1 2. Thailand 4 3. Philippines 16 4. Singapore 31 5. Indonesia 43 6. Malaysia 60 7. Vietnam 69 8. Conclusion 82 | iii y acknowledgments This report would not have been possible without the generosity of numerous individuals who shared their time, energy, and expertise. The Southeast Asian interlocutors will remain anonymous, but the authors would like to thank the embassies of Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia for offering counsel in Washington and for assisting in arranging meetings in their respective capitals. The authors are also indebted to those who took part in the project’s three half-day roundtables. The following individuals’ willingness to take time out of their schedules was remarkable and their contributions invaluable: John Brandon, The Asia Foundation Fred Brown, Johns Hopkins University–SAIS Richard Cronin, The Henry L. Stimson Center Matthew Daley, U.S.-ASEAN Business Council Ben Dolven, Congressional Research Service James Green, U.S. State Department Karl Jackson, Johns Hopkins University–SAIS Frank Jannuzi, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Staff James Kelly, Pacific Forum CSIS Satu Limaye, East-West Center Walter Lohman, Heritage Foundation Keith Luse, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Staff Mark Manyin, Congressional Research Service Ann Marie Murphy, Seton Hall University Marvin Ott, National War College Bronson Percival, Johns Hopkins University–SAIS Elizabeth Phu, National Security Council Sheldon Simon, Arizona State University iv | Lewis Stern, National Defense University Judith Strotz, National Intelligence Council Bruce Vaughn, Congressional Research Service Barbara Weisel, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Bridget Welsh, Johns Hopkins University–SAIS The authors would like to single out Ann Marie Murphy, Lewis Stern, Walter Lohman, Fred Brown, Bronson Percival, Barbara Weisel, and Bridget Welsh, as well as Alphonse La Porta, for thoughtfully reviewing drafts of the country chapters. Lastly, the project greatly benefitted from the research assistance and administrative support of several CSIS interns: Conor Cronin, Nathan Eberhardt, Katherine Koleski, Nicholas Malouta, Haruna Minoura, and David Szerlip. Lee Ridley, project coordinator and research assistant for the International Security Program’s Asia Division, was instrumental as always. acknowledgments | v y executive summary Hillary Clinton’s visit to Indonesia on her first trip abroad as U.S. secretary of state signaled that the Obama administration intends to pay renewed attention to Southeast Asia, a region with over 550 million people, the world’s largest Muslim nation, an economy of over $1 trillion, and some of the world’s most strategic waterways. This is a welcome development due to the significance of U.S. interests in the region. U.S.–Southeast Asia trade amounts to over $200 billion annually, and U.S. cumulative investment in the region is valued at over $100 billion. Perhaps more importantly, Southeast Asia is a region likely to play a critical role in determining the future of Asia and whether the United States can sustain itself as an Asia-Pacific power. Enhanced U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia will naturally involve greater attention to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other multilateral forums, but key U.S. interests in the region will continue to be pursued through bilateral partnerships. This will include not only U.S. treaty allies—Thailand and the Philippines—but also key emerging players, particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. This report assesses the health and potential of these partnerships and offers recommendations to incoming policymakers as they consider the way forward in U.S. policy toward the region. In summary, the authors found the health of the six bilateral relationships examined as follows: The U.S.-Thailand alliance continues to benefit the two countries, but deep-seated and longstanding issues trouble the relationship. The U.S.-Philippines alliance is in surprisingly good health and provides the United States with significant benefits, a finding contrary to common assumptions on the state of the relationship. U.S.-Singapore relations are extremely strong, and a perceived lack of U.S. attention to the region in general is the only sore area. U.S.-Indonesia relations are sound and have the greatest potential among the partnerships examined to be significantly elevated in coming years. U.S.-Malaysia relations are positive, and there exists significant room to deepen the partnership in coming years. U.S.-Vietnam relations are positive and growing, with Vietnam eager to engage the United States as a prospective partner and player in regional affairs. vi | One must be careful not to make sweeping generalizations about “Southeast Asia” as a single, unified entity. Nonetheless, several common themes emerged in the six countries examined that deserve summary mention. Southeast Asian nations are generally satisfied with the state of their respective bilateral relationships with the United States. Southeast Asian nations almost universally desire more U.S. engagement, both in bilateral and regional terms. Southeast Asian nations are concerned that the Obama administration’s mantra of “change” will alter the U.S. approach to their respective bilateral relationships. They also worry that a Democratic administration will tend toward protectionism and that human rights concerns may emerge to constrain relations. Southeast Asian nations want the United States to engage more actively in ASEAN-led regional frameworks. Southeast Asian nations—particularly Indonesia and Malaysia—desire a more “balanced” and less belligerent U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East and specifically related to the Israel-Palestine question and the Iraq War. Southeast Asian nations welcome increased Chinese engagement, in economic and diplomatic terms, but remain wary of the implications, particularly in military affairs. Japan’s engagement in the region is universally welcomed, but the consensus is that Tokyo underplays its hand. India’s increasing presence is welcomed, but its influence is nascent. Southeast Asian nations seek to engage all major powers but want no single power to dominate. To better achieve U.S. interests in Southeast Asia, this report recommends the following: The United States should seek to reinvigorate its engagement of alliance partners Thailand and the Philippines to test the possibilities of greater strategic convergence and cooperation. The United States should take advantage of an apparent opening to steadily cultivate broader and deeper relationships with emerging powers Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The United States should ensure that development of its bilateral (and potential minilateral) relationships
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