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EVCO – 2020-12-10 – Green Drinks Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa Green Drinks All About EVs December 10, 2020 Agenda About EVCO – Raymond Leury EV Market Share – Raymond Leury EV Models Available in Canada – Mike Banks Charging at home and on the road – Raymond Leury EV Incentives in Canada and around the world – Mitchell House Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa (EVCO) Founded in 1982 – www.evco.ca 100% volunteer, non-profit No affiliation or funding from industry Subject Matter Experts on EV’s Passenger vehicles, Buses, light, medium, heavy duty trucks Promote the electrification of the transportation system (mainly to reduce GHG emissions) E-bus Campaign – OC Transpo EV Market Share Battery Cost Biggest factor affecting EV prices 2010 Prediction: $1,000/kWh in 2010 $200/kWh in 2020 80% reduction 2019 Reality: $100/kWh in 2019 Source: Tony Seba 90% reduction My car : 50% of cost in 2013 was battery Powertrain Cost Comparison 600kWh / 500km Range Without Subsidies $25,000 Mainstream Battery-Electric $20,000 Mainstream Battery- cars are projected to achieve Electric Cars cost parity with efficient fossil fuel cars in 2023-24. $15,000 $10,000 Efficient Fossil Fuel- Powered Cars Powertrain Cost ($ US) Cost Powertrain $5,000 $0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Typical Technology Adoption Curve Our conservative forecast… Canada Projected EV Sales 3,000,000 Canada Sales… 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Year Market Share Canada New Motor Vehicle Registrations Data Visualization Tool (statcan.gc.ca) Passenger cars - 2019: BC – 19.5% Québec – 12.7% Ontario – 3% Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2019028-eng.htm Meanwhile, in Europe… Sales are booming! EV Models Available in Canada Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa (EVCO) Michael Banks Director, EVCO Overview Brief History of EV’s in Canada (Roadster, Leaf, Model S) Role of PHEV’s (Note, not hybrids!) Current Market and gaps (Pickups, minivans, trucks, off-roaders) Categories, capabilities, and prices Federal Rebate! Current Challenges (availability, dealer indifference, charging infrastructure (home/condo, en route)) Coming Soon! (Pickups, minivans) 2020 EVCO EV Buyer’s Guide A Brief History of Modern EV’s in Canada Tesla Roadster, 2009 Nissan Leaf, 2011 Hybrids and PHEV’s as Stepping Stones Hybrids from Japan started at the turn of the century. Very little evolution or progress in the 20 years since. PHEV’s launched in 2010 with the Chevy Volt Many PHEV’s are available today in categories currently not served by EV’s. Current EV Market in Canada Currently there are 34 different electric vehicles models on the market (i.e. taking orders or at least pre-orders) Prices range from $37,895 to $224,397 before taxes and incentives. EV ranges are now between 177 km to 810 km per charge. Vehicle classes include: hatchback, sedan, crossover, small SUV, large SUV. Pickup trucks are arriving in the next year (currently accepting pre-orders). Current EV Market in Canada (Continued) Most affordable EV: VW e-Golf for $37,895 with 198 km of range. Best-selling EV (also the benchmark): Tesla Model 3 for $52,990 with 423 km of range. Most expensive for current delivery: Porsche Taycan Turbo for $173,900, 323 km of range Other popular and affordable EV’s include Hyundai Ioniq EV & Kona, Kia Soul EV & Niro EV, Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Bolt EV all of which qualify for a $5,000 Federal Rebate Federal Rebate (iZEV Program) Ontario’s Conservative Government cancelled the existing rebate in the province so Ontario’s can now only access the $5,000 Federal rebate. List of eligible cars is available on the following website: https://tc.canada.ca/en/road- transportation/innovative-technologies/zero-emission-vehicles/list-eligible-vehicles-under- izev-program Province of Quebec offers an additional $8,000 incentive. Remaining Challenges Availability dealer indifference charging infrastructure (home/condo, en route)) Coming Soon! Pickup trucks Tesla, Rivian, GM, Atlis, Ford, Dodge, Lordstown all plan on bringing pickups to market in the next 1-4 years. Ford Transit electric van just launched Possible minivan from FCA in 2024 (Portal?) Possible off-road vehicle from FCA (Wrangler EV?) Rumours of Ford EV Bronco as well New Tesla Roadster sports-car (although the term may be irrelevant in the EV age as every car is basically a sports-car) Handy EVCO 2020 EV Buyer’s Guide! http://evco.ca/evs-available-in-ontario/ Charging at home and on the road Home Charging Level I – 120V outlet – up to 12A 6-9km/hour of charging Good enough for most driving Every EV comes with a Level I “mobile” charging cable This can be used just about anywhere without any special setup Only need a regular outlet (Avoid extension cords) Home Charging Level II – 240V – 30 to 80A 30-90km/hour of charging Usually ~40km/hour Two standards J1772 Can be used with Tesla adaptor Will work with 100% of EVs Tesla Recommended Keep your mobile charging cable in the car in case it’s needed Reduce wear on mobile charging cable Home Charging – Do I need to upgrade my panel/service? Most likely not Code has been changed to permit devices which control capacity allocation Charging generally done at night when demand is low Appliance Smart Splitter | NeoCharge (getneocharge.com) DCC-10 Avoids Major Home Electrical Upgrades for an EV Charging Installation (dccelectric.com) MURB Charging Infrastructure Charging on the road – Level II Level II – 240V – 30 to 80A 30-90km/hour of charging Usually ~40km/hour Two standards J1772 Can be used with Tesla adaptor Will work with 100% of EVs Tesla Many Hotels Offer Level II Charging on the road – DCFC (Level III) DCFC - Direct Current Fast Charging 3 Standards in North America Going to 2 ☺ Tesla Superchargers ChadeMo – being phased out Mostly used by Japanese Nissan, Mitsubishi CCS Combo – standard in Europe Electric Vehicle Incentives Summary Early Incentives Current Incentives Future Meaning of Incentives Early Incentives (2010-2018) Tax credits, purchase grants, exemptions from import taxes Ranging from $7,5000 U.S. Tax Credit, $5,000 Federal Rebate on ZEV purchases, and 100% import tax on vehicles in Hong Kong BC: Additional $3,000, Quebec: Additional $8,000 (additional incentives for home charging stations) Exemptions from road, bridge and tunnel tolls Prominent in Norway (in addition to tax credits, purchase grants and import taxes) Granted access to bus lanes, free parking, free charging Exemptions from congestion pricing City of London UK has congestion charge of £15/day within much of downtown, commercial and tourist districts Problems of Past Incentives Incentives are larger than the benefits that they provide Cost of incentive is significantly larger than the savings of reduced CO2 emissions Further study to be done to show the negative impacts of other emissions such NOx and particulates and their associated costs to prove incentives might be beneficial in the long run Cost parity is approaching, and economic incentives will increasingly be expensive ways to increase demand Inefficient way to get people to shift buying preferences People who buy new vehicles often would have the money to purchase an EV without the incentive Average EV buyer made twice the average income of various jurisdictions Purchase incentives have left taxpayers upset, and have painted EVs in negative light Current Incentives ZEV Mandate Implemented in British Columbia, Quebec and various other countries and U.S. States Provides framework for increased availability and sales of EVs across different markets EVs must make up an increasingly large percentage of all vehicle sales Credits are created for every EV sale, with companies unable to meet requirement of credits paying penalties for being unable to sell EVs. Penalties increase year-after-year, making it more costly to not build EVs, as number of credits required increases Some advanced ZEV mandates include banking of credits for future years, trading amongst manufacturers, and points systems for vehicles with different ranges ZEV Mandates ZEV Mandate Problems Addressed 24% decrease in new EV inventory compared to 2018, despite availability of $5,000 federal incentive and growing demand from consumers 31% of dealerships had a zero-emission vehicle in stock, and majority of dealers quote a three-six month wait time for EV Canada’s vehicle production is ranked 12th in the world, but only represents 0.4% of global EV production $300 billion was earmarked for EV technologies globally – ~$5 billion is being deployed to Canada ZEV Mandate - Praise International Council of Clean Transportation, jurisdictions with ZEV mandates represent 90% of the global EV market An evaluation of different policy options conducted by Simon Fraser University’s Sustainable Transportation Action Research Team, a ZEV mandate is “The most effective, low-cost and transformative policy” to transition to EVs The adoption of ZEV Mandates help drive investment to making competitive electric vehicles, and driving down costs of EVs compared to combustion engine vehicles Future Incentives Increasing number of countries looking to eliminate sale of combustion engine vehicles Canada: 100% of sales to be EV by 2040 UK, Sweden, Netherlands: 100% EV by 2030 Norway: 100% EV by 2025 (already have roughly 85% market share) Larger sales of EVs will reduce resale value of gas vehicles, given lower desirability and market size Zero-emission zones are in discussion in Canadian cities (including Ottawa) Gas vehicles will be completely banned from high-density and attractive areas Additional fees for combustion engine vehicles to operate in cities Conclusion Monetary incentives likely won’t be available forever Current incentives are driving an increased interest and availability of electric vehicles More vehicles manufacturers are coming out with electric vehicles, meaning more options for customers and lowering value of gasoline vehicles Future initiatives from cities will look to limit combustion engine vehicle usage, and future investment in electric vehicle infrastructure will increase attractiveness of EVs for everyone.
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