Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa Green Drinks All About EVs
December 10, 2020 Agenda
About EVCO – Raymond Leury EV Market Share – Raymond Leury EV Models Available in Canada – Mike Banks Charging at home and on the road – Raymond Leury EV Incentives in Canada and around the world – Mitchell House Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa (EVCO)
Founded in 1982 – www.evco.ca 100% volunteer, non-profit No affiliation or funding from industry Subject Matter Experts on EV’s Passenger vehicles, Buses, light, medium, heavy duty trucks Promote the electrification of the transportation system (mainly to reduce GHG emissions) E-bus Campaign – OC Transpo EV Market Share Battery Cost
Biggest factor affecting EV prices 2010 Prediction:
$1,000/kWh in 2010
$200/kWh in 2020
80% reduction 2019 Reality:
$100/kWh in 2019 Source: Tony Seba 90% reduction My car : 50% of cost in 2013 was battery Powertrain Cost Comparison 600kWh / 500km Range Without Subsidies $25,000 Mainstream Battery-Electric $20,000 Mainstream Battery- cars are projected to achieve Electric Cars cost parity with efficient fossil fuel cars in 2023-24. $15,000
$10,000 Efficient Fossil Fuel- Powered Cars Powertrain Cost ($ ($ US) Cost Powertrain $5,000
$0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Typical Technology Adoption Curve
Our conservative forecast…
Canada Projected EV Sales 3,000,000 Canada Sales…
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Year Market Share Canada New Motor Vehicle Registrations Data Visualization Tool (statcan.gc.ca)
Passenger cars - 2019:
BC – 19.5% Québec – 12.7% Ontario – 3%
Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2019028-eng.htm Meanwhile, in Europe… Sales are booming! EV Models Available in Canada Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa (EVCO)
Michael Banks Director, EVCO Overview
Brief History of EV’s in Canada (Roadster, Leaf, Model S)
Role of PHEV’s (Note, not hybrids!)
Current Market and gaps (Pickups, minivans, trucks, off-roaders)
Categories, capabilities, and prices
Federal Rebate!
Current Challenges (availability, dealer indifference, charging infrastructure (home/condo, en route))
Coming Soon! (Pickups, minivans)
2020 EVCO EV Buyer’s Guide A Brief History of Modern EV’s in Canada
Tesla Roadster, 2009
Nissan Leaf, 2011 Hybrids and PHEV’s as Stepping Stones
Hybrids from Japan started at the turn of the century.
Very little evolution or progress in the 20 years since.
PHEV’s launched in 2010 with the Chevy Volt
Many PHEV’s are available today in categories currently not served by EV’s. Current EV Market in Canada
Currently there are 34 different electric vehicles models on the market (i.e. taking orders or at least pre-orders)
Prices range from $37,895 to $224,397 before taxes and incentives.
EV ranges are now between 177 km to 810 km per charge.
Vehicle classes include: hatchback, sedan, crossover, small SUV, large SUV.
Pickup trucks are arriving in the next year (currently accepting pre-orders). Current EV Market in Canada
(Continued) Most affordable EV: VW e-Golf for $37,895 with 198 km of range. Best-selling EV (also the benchmark): Tesla Model 3 for $52,990 with 423 km of range.
Most expensive for current delivery: Porsche Taycan Turbo for $173,900, 323 km of range
Other popular and affordable EV’s include Hyundai Ioniq EV & Kona, Kia Soul EV & Niro EV, Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Bolt EV all of which qualify for a $5,000 Federal Rebate Federal Rebate (iZEV Program)
Ontario’s Conservative Government cancelled the existing rebate in the province so Ontario’s can now only access the $5,000 Federal rebate. List of eligible cars is available on the following website: https://tc.canada.ca/en/road- transportation/innovative-technologies/zero-emission-vehicles/list-eligible-vehicles-under- izev-program Province of Quebec offers an additional $8,000 incentive. Remaining Challenges
Availability
dealer indifference
charging infrastructure (home/condo, en route)) Coming Soon!
Pickup trucks
Tesla, Rivian, GM, Atlis, Ford, Dodge, Lordstown all plan on bringing pickups to market in the next 1-4 years.
Ford Transit electric van just launched
Possible minivan from FCA in 2024 (Portal?)
Possible off-road vehicle from FCA (Wrangler EV?)
Rumours of Ford EV Bronco as well
New Tesla Roadster sports-car (although the term may be irrelevant in the EV age as every car is basically a sports-car) Handy EVCO 2020 EV Buyer’s Guide!
http://evco.ca/evs-available-in-ontario/ Charging at home and on the road Home Charging
Level I – 120V outlet – up to 12A
6-9km/hour of charging
Good enough for most driving
Every EV comes with a Level I “mobile” charging cable
This can be used just about anywhere without any special setup
Only need a regular outlet
(Avoid extension cords) Home Charging
Level II – 240V – 30 to 80A 30-90km/hour of charging
Usually ~40km/hour Two standards J1772
Can be used with Tesla adaptor
Will work with 100% of EVs Tesla Recommended Keep your mobile charging cable in the car in case it’s needed Reduce wear on mobile charging cable Home Charging – Do I need to upgrade my panel/service?
Most likely not
Code has been changed to permit devices which control capacity allocation
Charging generally done at night when demand is low
Appliance Smart Splitter | NeoCharge (getneocharge.com)
DCC-10 Avoids Major Home Electrical Upgrades for an EV Charging Installation (dccelectric.com) MURB Charging Infrastructure Charging on the road – Level II
Level II – 240V – 30 to 80A
30-90km/hour of charging
Usually ~40km/hour
Two standards
J1772
Can be used with Tesla adaptor
Will work with 100% of EVs
Tesla
Many Hotels Offer Level II Charging on the road – DCFC (Level III)
DCFC - Direct Current Fast Charging
3 Standards in North America
Going to 2 ☺
Tesla Superchargers
ChadeMo – being phased out
Mostly used by Japanese
Nissan, Mitsubishi
CCS Combo – standard in Europe
Electric Vehicle Incentives Summary
Early Incentives
Current Incentives
Future Meaning of Incentives Early Incentives (2010-2018)
Tax credits, purchase grants, exemptions from import taxes
Ranging from $7,5000 U.S. Tax Credit, $5,000 Federal Rebate on ZEV purchases, and 100% import tax on vehicles in Hong Kong
BC: Additional $3,000, Quebec: Additional $8,000 (additional incentives for home charging stations)
Exemptions from road, bridge and tunnel tolls
Prominent in Norway (in addition to tax credits, purchase grants and import taxes)
Granted access to bus lanes, free parking, free charging
Exemptions from congestion pricing
City of London UK has congestion charge of £15/day within much of downtown, commercial and tourist districts Problems of Past Incentives
Incentives are larger than the benefits that they provide
Cost of incentive is significantly larger than the savings of reduced CO2 emissions
Further study to be done to show the negative impacts of other emissions such NOx and particulates and their associated costs to prove incentives might be beneficial in the long run
Cost parity is approaching, and economic incentives will increasingly be expensive ways to increase demand
Inefficient way to get people to shift buying preferences
People who buy new vehicles often would have the money to purchase an EV without the incentive
Average EV buyer made twice the average income of various jurisdictions
Purchase incentives have left taxpayers upset, and have painted EVs in negative light Current Incentives
ZEV Mandate
Implemented in British Columbia, Quebec and various other countries and U.S. States
Provides framework for increased availability and sales of EVs across different markets
EVs must make up an increasingly large percentage of all vehicle sales
Credits are created for every EV sale, with companies unable to meet requirement of credits paying penalties for being unable to sell EVs.
Penalties increase year-after-year, making it more costly to not build EVs, as number of credits required increases
Some advanced ZEV mandates include banking of credits for future years, trading amongst manufacturers, and points systems for vehicles with different ranges ZEV Mandates ZEV Mandate Problems Addressed
24% decrease in new EV inventory compared to 2018, despite availability of $5,000 federal incentive and growing demand from consumers
31% of dealerships had a zero-emission vehicle in stock, and majority of dealers quote a three-six month wait time for EV
Canada’s vehicle production is ranked 12th in the world, but only represents 0.4% of global EV production
$300 billion was earmarked for EV technologies globally – ~$5 billion is being deployed to Canada ZEV Mandate - Praise
International Council of Clean Transportation, jurisdictions with ZEV mandates represent 90% of the global EV market
An evaluation of different policy options conducted by Simon Fraser University’s Sustainable Transportation Action Research Team, a ZEV mandate is “The most effective, low-cost and transformative policy” to transition to EVs
The adoption of ZEV Mandates help drive investment to making competitive electric vehicles, and driving down costs of EVs compared to combustion engine vehicles Future Incentives
Increasing number of countries looking to eliminate sale of combustion engine vehicles
Canada: 100% of sales to be EV by 2040
UK, Sweden, Netherlands: 100% EV by 2030
Norway: 100% EV by 2025 (already have roughly 85% market share)
Larger sales of EVs will reduce resale value of gas vehicles, given lower desirability and market size
Zero-emission zones are in discussion in Canadian cities (including Ottawa)
Gas vehicles will be completely banned from high-density and attractive areas
Additional fees for combustion engine vehicles to operate in cities Conclusion
Monetary incentives likely won’t be available forever
Current incentives are driving an increased interest and availability of electric vehicles
More vehicles manufacturers are coming out with electric vehicles, meaning more options for customers and lowering value of gasoline vehicles
Future initiatives from cities will look to limit combustion engine vehicle usage, and future investment in electric vehicle infrastructure will increase attractiveness of EVs for everyone. Questions?
Note: Monthly meetings:
Last Monday of month (except December) 7:30PM Next on January 25th, 2021 – AGM! See www.evco.ca for details