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Lower Green Bay and Lower Fox Tributary Modeling Report

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Lower Green Bay and Lower Fox Tributary Modeling Report Lower Green Bay and Lower Fox Tributary Modeling Report Source Allocation of Suspended Sediment and Phosphorus Loads to Green Bay from the Lower Fox River Subbasin Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) January 2005 Prepared for: Oneida Tribe of Indians of Wisconsin and Science and Technical Advisory Committee of the Green Bay Remedial Action Plan (RAP) Prepared by: Paul Baumgart 4998 County Rd. JJ Green Bay, WI 54311 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project was funded by the Oneida Tribe of Indians of Wisconsin, PO Box 365, 3759 W. Mason St., Oneida, WI 54155. This report was prepared for the Oneida Tribe of Indians of Wisconsin and the Green Bay Remedial Action Plan Science and Technical Advisory Committee. Information required to complete this study was graciously provided from numerous sources including: the Bay Lakes Regional Planning Commission; Brown, Calumet, Outagamie and Winnebago County Land Conservation Departments and Planning Departments; East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission; Green Bay Metropolitan Sewerage District; University of Wisconsin-Extension Agricultural Agents; University of Wisconsin-Extension Geological and Natural History Survey State Climatology Office in Madison Wisconsin; University of Wisconsin - Green Bay; U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resource and Conservation Service; U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency; Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (WDATCP); and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR). This study would not have been possible without the generous help and professional advice I received from the many people who work at these government and institutional offices. Dr. Jeff Arnold, Dr. Jimmie Williams, Susan Neitsch, and Nancy Sammons of the USDA Agricultural Research Service modeling team in Temple, Texas were of enormous help throughout this project. Special thanks go to Kevin Erb of UW-Extension, Dr. Bud Harris, Dr. Tom McIntosh and Dr. James Wiersma of UW-Green Bay, Dr. Dale Robertson of the USGS, Len Olson of the WDATCP, Lyle Anderson of the UW- Extension Climatology Office, and Michael Finney of the Oneida Tribe for their generous help and advice. I especially wish to thank the Oneida Tribe of Indians and Fox-Wolf Watershed Alliance (formerly Fox-Wolf Basin 2000) for their financial and moral support of this funded project and all the previous work which led to the completion of this project. Finally, my deepest gratitude goes to Tina Mercier, who has endured my career with patience, support and sacrifice. She has helped center me when I focused too much on the goals at hand, allowing me to enjoy life along the way. i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .......................................................... i TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES .............................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................. vi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION AND PROJECT OVERVIEW ............................. 1-1 CHAPTER 2. METHODS AND SWAT MODEL INPUTS ................................. 2-1 APPROACH .............................................................. 2-1 WATERSHED DELINEATION AND HYDROLOGY ................................. 2-3 CLIMATOLOGICAL INPUTS ................................................. 2-4 SOILS .................................................................. 2-6 OVERLAND SLOPE AND SLOPE LENGTH ....................................... 2-9 GENERAL LAND USE AND MODELING METHODS ............................... 2-11 AGRICULTURAL LANDUSE AND MODELING METHODS .......................... 2-19 RIPARIAN BUFFER STRIPS IN RURAL AREAS .................................. 2-31 MODELING LOADS FROM URBAN AND URBANIZING AREAS ...................... 2-35 OTHER MODEL INPUTS ................................................... 2-38 CHAPTER 3. BARNYARD CONTRIBUTIONS ........................................ 3-1 SIMULATING BARNYARD CONTRIBUTIONS .................................... 3-1 POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BARNYARDS ............................... 3-2 CHAPTER 4. POINT SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS ..................................... 4-1 CHAPTER 5. MODIFICATIONS TO SWAT FORTRAN CODE ............................ 5-1 CHAPTER 6. MODEL CALIBRATION .............................................. 6-1 CALIBRATION OVERVIEW .................................................. 6-1 CALIBRATION - CROP SUB-MODEL ........................................... 6-1 CALIBRATION - HYDROLOGY ............................................... 6-2 CALIBRATION - TOTAL SUSPENDED SEDIMENT ................................ 6-13 CALIBRATION - PHOSPHORUS .............................................. 6-17 CHAPTER 7. MODEL VALIDATION/ASSESSMENT ................................... 7-1 ASSESSMENT - HYDROLOGY ................................................ 7-1 ASSESSMENT - SUSPENDED SEDIMENT AND PHOSPHORUS ...................... 7-10 CHAPTER 8. MODEL ASSESSMENT - LOADS TO GREEN BAY AND WATERSHED CONTRIBUTIONS8-1 ii CHAPTER 9. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ............................................ 9-1 CHAPTER 10. MODEL RESULTS - LOWER FOX RIVER SUBBASIN SUSPENDED SEDIMENT AND PHOSPHORUS LOADS ............................. 10-1 WATERSHED AND SUBWATERSHED CONTRIBUTIONS ........................... 10-1 LOAD ALLOCATIONS TO GREEN BAY ........................................ 10-9 CHAPTER 11. EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS .......................... 11-1 DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ................................ 11-1 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS - RESULTS ....................................... 11-7 CHAPTER 12. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................... 12-1 REFERENCES ........................................................ Reference - 1 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Sources of climatological data used in SWAT simulations, and assignment of climatological data to subwatersheds .............................................................. 2-4 Table 2-2. Soil Test Phosphorus Cumulative Frequency Distribution .......................... 2-7 Table 2-3. Percent Land Cover and Landuse in the Lower Fox River Subbasin: 1992. ............. 2-12 Table 2-4. Percent Land Cover and Landuse in the Lower Fox River Subbasin: 2000. ............. 2-13 Table 2-5. Primary tillage practices utilized in SWAT simulations ........................... 2-22 Table 2-6. Simulated level of conservation tillage for dairy operations: 1992 Baseline ............. 2-24 Table 2-7. Simulated level of conservation tillage for dairy operations: 2000 Baseline ............. 2-24 Table 2-8. Summary of phosphorus and suspended sediment/TSS concentrations measured in urban streams and storm sewers within Wisconsin and neighboring states. ............................... 2-36 Table 6-1. Annual Flow at Duck Creek (1989-1996 Calibration period). ...................... 6-11 Table 6-2. Average Monthly Flow at Duck Creek (1989-96 calibration period). ................. 6-11 Table 7-1. Simulated and observed average annual stream flow at Duck Creek (1997-June 2001). ..... 7-5 Table 7-2. Major observed and simulated suspended sediment and phosphorus load events at East River, Monroe Street monitoring station (USGS Station #040851378): 1985-1986. .................... 7-14 Table 9-1. Sensitivity of suspended sediment, phosphorus and hydrologic outputs to selected inputs of the SWAT model. ................................................................ 9-2 Table 10-1. Simulated average annual suspended sediment and phosphorus non-point source loads from watersheds in the Lower Fox River Subbasin. ......................................... 10-2 Table 10-2. Lower Fox River Subbasin simulated sediment and phosphorus subwatershed loads. Summarized by landuse type and watershed. Baseline 2000 Scenario - routed to subwatershed outlet. .. 10-4 Table 10-3. Lower Fox River Subbasin simulated sediment loads by subwatershed for each landuse type (metric ton/year). Baseline 2000 Scenario - as routed to subwatershed outlet. .................. 10-5 Table 10-4. Lower Fox River Subbasin simulated phosphorus loads by subwatershed for each landuse type (kg/year). Baseline 2000 Scenario - as routed to subwatershed outlet. ........................ 10-6 iv Table 11-1. Simulated impacts of Alternative Scenarios on suspended sediment and phosphorus non-point source loads to Green Bay from Lower Fox River Subbasin. Based on 1977-2000 climatic period. .... 11-8 Table 11-2. Simulated impacts of Alternative Scenarios on suspended sediment and phosphorus non-point source loads to Green Bay from Lower Fox Subbasin, as percent change from Baseline 2000 Scenario. 11-8 Table 11-3. Simulated impacts of Alternative Scenarios on suspended sediment and phosphorus non-point source loads from the Plum Creek Watershed (LF03), as percent change from Baseline 2000 Scenario. 11-9 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1. Lower Fox River Subbasin watersheds, subwatersheds and major tributaries. ........... 1-2 Figure 2-1. Percent overland slope in Lower Fox River subbasin. Based on 30 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provided by the WDNR. .................................................. 2-10 Figure 2-2. Year 2000 landuse and land cover in the Lower Fox River subbasin. Composite based on images from Brown County Planning Dept., WDNR and ECWRPC. ............................... 2-14 Figure 2-3. Lower Fox River subbasin - trends in urban landuse from 1954 to 2000, and projected extent of
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